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A Breakdown of RB Darren McFadden
Seldom has a player been brought in by the Dallas Cowboys in recent years and subjected us to more discussions, debates, and polarizing opinions, than the March 13th signing of RB Darren McFadden to a 2-year, $3m deal with just $200,000 guaranteed.
Now, the very contract I just described is so small in terms of NFL guaranteed money that McFadden should be designated by anyone who follows this team as the type of guy that will have to make the roster out of training camp to assure himself of employment and compensation. His contract is more than the league minimum and more than the deal the Cowboys gave another highly drafted and highly compensated former Oakland Raider, Rolando McClain, last season, but not by enough in NFL dollars to consider their situations too different. Impress at camp and this can go places. Confirm what the league thinks, and this could be over before September.
Basically, before we go down that road, we should all understand that the $200k guarantee is generally what you give 5th round picks - Devin Street in 2014 received $201k and Ryan Russell in 2015 just picked up about $203k. And 5th round picks sometimes get cut in their first training camp and the team doesn't think twice about it. I say all that to suggest that the amount of time we are all spending on the merits of McFadden at this stage of his career is probably inappropriate. That said, I wrote 2,000 words on whether Ryan Williams can fix RB, and that is a guy who hasn't played meaningful snap in about 36 months, so I am clearly up for anything in June.
McFadden will turn 28 years old during training camp this year and is coming off a run in Oakland which had its moments, but those moments were surrounded by years that were disappointing and forgettable. To demonstrate, I ran a search for every RB season of the last decade which contained at least 100 carries and searched by lowest average per carry. The list below is the 50 worst seasons since 2005. According to what I found, there are 44 different RBs on this list and only 3 show up multiple times. Kevin Barlow and Trent Richardson both had 2 seasons each that were horrible. But, McFadden is on this list 4 different times. That is pretty remarkable.
So, the two most basic questions that are being asked about McFadden's fit with the Cowboys are the following:
1) - Could anyone of reasonable quality run the football behind the Dallas Cowboys offensive line in 2015?
2) - Would anyone have had success in McFadden's circumstances in Oakland the last several years?
Well, we have no way of knowing the answer to the first question. It sure seems, though, that with most opinions, confidence is high that due to the quality of the Cowboys offensive line, running the ball is expected to be successful in 2015 regardless of who is doing the running. That remains to be seen, but no amount of arguing in June will resolve this.
But, Question #2 is a bit easier to break down because the Raiders did have other players running the ball and playing McFadden's job from 2012-2014 when he had worse productivity than every RB in football other than Trent Richardson. Richardson's cumulative totals worse slightly worse, as you can see below, but those 2 were far worse than anyone in the sport for the 3-year window:
Again, Richardson didn't play for the Raiders. So, we are discussing the merits of Cleveland's situation (with Indianapolis) versus Oakland. Unresolvable.
However, he did have teammates. Those mates did play behind the same offensive line that we have been assured were horrendous, the same Quarterbacks who were clueless, and the same coaches and ownership that were failures. I have been told repeatedly that "nobody could run successfully in Oakland", which is a fun debate point. Could they be right?
Well, luckily, we have 2 things to consider: tape and stats. Both can mislead, but together, they can provide the best mosaic that we can study until Oxnard. And, it is also what the Cowboys must have studied to decide he was worth the small investment. In a moment, we will examine the tape, but for now, let's check the numbers. We will call his mates in Oakland over the last 3 seasons "the others". They include: Rashad Jennings (2013), Marcel Reece (2012-2014), Latavius Murray (2014), Maurice Jones-Drew (2014), and Mike Goodson (2012). These 5 players all received at least 35 carries each in the last 3 seasons in Oakland. They are different players who do different things, but their collective results could be considered in our experiment as guys who ran in the exact same offense at the exact same time McFadden was putting up 3 seasons of sub 3.5 yards per carry. So how do they compare?
Hmmm. That is disconcerting. Hundreds of carries to consider, yet, anybody-but-McFadden averaged over 5.5 yards per carry or 2.2 more than each and every single run from McFadden? Basically, he had 60% the productivity of each of his backup's runs - over 3 straight years. Here is something else to chew on: From 2012-2014, if you rank the 32 NFL teams by average yards per carry, you would find the Minnesota Vikings at #1 in the NFL at 4.93. The Arizona Cardinals would be ranked #32 during those 3 years combined at 3.46. So, the best is 4.93 and the worst is 3.46. Now, look up again and see the results of "the others" in Oakland and McFadden. Does that mean more now? It should.
Ok, but were they the same threats as receivers? He can do that, too. How do his numbers as a pass-catcher compare to theirs?
Well, I guess that didn't yield promising numbers either. Now, it is tough to compare 5 guys to McFadden, partially due to the fact that they are not subject to fatigue and injury in the same way. But, in answer to the question of whether "anyone would have problems in Oakland", it appears that 5.5 yards per carry over 370 attempts might not fully agree with that assessment.
=====
Now, let's move on from that (Oakland did) and focus on 2015. If McFadden is part of this season, let's look at his recent 2014 film and try to decide what he does well and what he doesn't (and maybe what the Dallas front office sees). Let's find a role for the former Razorback star.
Seldom has a player been brought in by the Dallas Cowboys in recent years and subjected us to more discussions, debates, and polarizing opinions, than the March 13th signing of RB Darren McFadden to a 2-year, $3m deal with just $200,000 guaranteed.
Now, the very contract I just described is so small in terms of NFL guaranteed money that McFadden should be designated by anyone who follows this team as the type of guy that will have to make the roster out of training camp to assure himself of employment and compensation. His contract is more than the league minimum and more than the deal the Cowboys gave another highly drafted and highly compensated former Oakland Raider, Rolando McClain, last season, but not by enough in NFL dollars to consider their situations too different. Impress at camp and this can go places. Confirm what the league thinks, and this could be over before September.
Basically, before we go down that road, we should all understand that the $200k guarantee is generally what you give 5th round picks - Devin Street in 2014 received $201k and Ryan Russell in 2015 just picked up about $203k. And 5th round picks sometimes get cut in their first training camp and the team doesn't think twice about it. I say all that to suggest that the amount of time we are all spending on the merits of McFadden at this stage of his career is probably inappropriate. That said, I wrote 2,000 words on whether Ryan Williams can fix RB, and that is a guy who hasn't played meaningful snap in about 36 months, so I am clearly up for anything in June.
McFadden will turn 28 years old during training camp this year and is coming off a run in Oakland which had its moments, but those moments were surrounded by years that were disappointing and forgettable. To demonstrate, I ran a search for every RB season of the last decade which contained at least 100 carries and searched by lowest average per carry. The list below is the 50 worst seasons since 2005. According to what I found, there are 44 different RBs on this list and only 3 show up multiple times. Kevin Barlow and Trent Richardson both had 2 seasons each that were horrible. But, McFadden is on this list 4 different times. That is pretty remarkable.
So, the two most basic questions that are being asked about McFadden's fit with the Cowboys are the following:
1) - Could anyone of reasonable quality run the football behind the Dallas Cowboys offensive line in 2015?
2) - Would anyone have had success in McFadden's circumstances in Oakland the last several years?
Well, we have no way of knowing the answer to the first question. It sure seems, though, that with most opinions, confidence is high that due to the quality of the Cowboys offensive line, running the ball is expected to be successful in 2015 regardless of who is doing the running. That remains to be seen, but no amount of arguing in June will resolve this.
But, Question #2 is a bit easier to break down because the Raiders did have other players running the ball and playing McFadden's job from 2012-2014 when he had worse productivity than every RB in football other than Trent Richardson. Richardson's cumulative totals worse slightly worse, as you can see below, but those 2 were far worse than anyone in the sport for the 3-year window:
Player | Att | Yards | YPCarry | YPGame | TDs |
Trent Richardson '12-14 | 614 | 2032 | 3.31 | 44.2 | 17 |
Darren McFadden '12-14 | 485 | 1620 | 3.34 | 42.6 | 9 |
Again, Richardson didn't play for the Raiders. So, we are discussing the merits of Cleveland's situation (with Indianapolis) versus Oakland. Unresolvable.
However, he did have teammates. Those mates did play behind the same offensive line that we have been assured were horrendous, the same Quarterbacks who were clueless, and the same coaches and ownership that were failures. I have been told repeatedly that "nobody could run successfully in Oakland", which is a fun debate point. Could they be right?
Well, luckily, we have 2 things to consider: tape and stats. Both can mislead, but together, they can provide the best mosaic that we can study until Oxnard. And, it is also what the Cowboys must have studied to decide he was worth the small investment. In a moment, we will examine the tape, but for now, let's check the numbers. We will call his mates in Oakland over the last 3 seasons "the others". They include: Rashad Jennings (2013), Marcel Reece (2012-2014), Latavius Murray (2014), Maurice Jones-Drew (2014), and Mike Goodson (2012). These 5 players all received at least 35 carries each in the last 3 seasons in Oakland. They are different players who do different things, but their collective results could be considered in our experiment as guys who ran in the exact same offense at the exact same time McFadden was putting up 3 seasons of sub 3.5 yards per carry. So how do they compare?
Player | Att | Yards | YPCarry |
The Others in Oakland '12-14 | 370 | 2048 | 5.53 |
D McFadden '12-14 | 485 | 1620 | 3.34 |
Hmmm. That is disconcerting. Hundreds of carries to consider, yet, anybody-but-McFadden averaged over 5.5 yards per carry or 2.2 more than each and every single run from McFadden? Basically, he had 60% the productivity of each of his backup's runs - over 3 straight years. Here is something else to chew on: From 2012-2014, if you rank the 32 NFL teams by average yards per carry, you would find the Minnesota Vikings at #1 in the NFL at 4.93. The Arizona Cardinals would be ranked #32 during those 3 years combined at 3.46. So, the best is 4.93 and the worst is 3.46. Now, look up again and see the results of "the others" in Oakland and McFadden. Does that mean more now? It should.
Ok, but were they the same threats as receivers? He can do that, too. How do his numbers as a pass-catcher compare to theirs?
Player | Receptions | Yards | YPCatch |
The Others in Oakland '12-14 | 201 | 1793 | 8.92 |
D McFadden '12-14 | 95 | 578 | 6.1 |
Well, I guess that didn't yield promising numbers either. Now, it is tough to compare 5 guys to McFadden, partially due to the fact that they are not subject to fatigue and injury in the same way. But, in answer to the question of whether "anyone would have problems in Oakland", it appears that 5.5 yards per carry over 370 attempts might not fully agree with that assessment.
=====
Now, let's move on from that (Oakland did) and focus on 2015. If McFadden is part of this season, let's look at his recent 2014 film and try to decide what he does well and what he doesn't (and maybe what the Dallas front office sees). Let's find a role for the former Razorback star.