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By Bob Sturm
3h ago
6
We shall start with the most important conversation that will not be true in almost any other sport we follow.
There are no fully guaranteed contracts in the NFL this side of Kirk Cousins and Deshaun Watson. Every player can be six months from an entirely different world of reality when it comes to their NFL path.
No matter who you are, if you are on a veteran deal of any amount — and the team has the interest of turning the hammer in your direction — one bad season can cause all manner of meetings and phone calls to find out what it would cost to walk away from you.
The Cowboys are not known as being especially ruthless when it comes to contracts, but given that the two veterans who had easy-to-remove contracts last spring (Amari Cooper and La’el Collins) were easily removed, well, we should see that as everyone else has been put on clear notice.
Further, on each NFL roster, there are many battles for jobs, but we all understand that getting an NFL job is the ultimate hurdle for every player to clear.
Let’s move beyond that most basic goal, assume the following players will all easily make this team, and focus on the road between here and January. That allows us to get down to the annual look at who really needs to have a big year for Dallas for their own agenda — which can enhance their status with the Cowboys or their next franchise.
These players find themselves at a career crossroads. I know when you have a full roster, you can talk yourselves into many storylines for most players, as to how this is their “prove-it” season and a massive chance to either raise their career trajectory or move closer to finding a different line of work.
Ezekiel Elliott (Jason Parkhurst / USA Today)
Last year, we nominated five players for the 2021 version. Let’s briefly recap each on that list before moving on to our fresh five:
Ezekiel Elliott, running back
We talked a year ago about the pivotal year in 2021 for Ezekiel Elliott while stating that there was no way the Cowboys can get rid of him before the 2022 season. Both were true. His 2021 was nearly identical in many ways to his 2020. He just lacks the explosion he possessed a long time back. His rushing yards per game have fallen every year of his career. His yards per game receiving have fallen every year since 2018. He is still on the poster of the marketing materials, but I have a very difficult time seeing Zeke back in 2023 unless something happens that never happens in the NFL — a running back finds explosion again after it being gone for a few years. His cap number in 2023 is not guaranteed and will be about $17 million and while it is always possible the team tries a modified deal as they did with DeMarcus Lawrence, I do not see it. I think this is his last year as a Cowboy.
Michael Gallup, wide receiver
In a weird turn of events, Michael Gallup’s injury-riddled 2021 might have actually kept him with the team. Had he had the year he envisioned, there is a real chance that he would have found the type of insane wide receiver money that others did. Two years ago, Cooper was the only WR in the league making $20 million a season and now he has been joined or passed by 13 receivers. Christian Kirk and Diontae Johnson just signed deals that put them at $18 million per year and Gallup had every right to be in that grouping. But, injuries knocked him out of that line and Gallup settled for a hometown discount of five years/$57.5 million which will keep him in Dallas at a very nice $11.5 million per year and $27 million guaranteed. Hopefully, he will return healthy and if he does, Dallas should be credited for a nice piece of business that ultimately sent Cooper to Cleveland.
Randy Gregory, edge rusher
The question a year ago was basically whether he could lock down the defensive end spot opposite Lawrence for a long-term commitment where he could make generational wealth and the Cowboys could stop shopping at this spot every 12 months. Dallas had seen enough and offered him a deal, but as you recall, he was not pleased with a clause the Cowboys included and Denver complied to his agent’s wishes and struck the clause from their contract. In a weird way, Randy Gregory did have a year that wasn’t perfect, but was enough to invest in him. He was trying to get a big deal and five years, $70 million at $14 million per year is very salty. Dallas lost its guy after thinking it had kept him. Bizarre, but now Dorance Armstrong, Dante Fowler and Sam Williams all get a real opportunity to emerge as his replacement(s).
Jaylon Smith/Leighton Vander Esch, linebacker
I used the last two as a combo-platter for linebacker and tight end. First, we could clearly see that the drafting of Micah Parsons and Jabril Cox were ominous signs from the Dan Quinn hiring that apparently Jaylon Smith and LVE were not here for “the next decade” and Smith barely made it in Dallas another month. LVE is back, but on a greatly reduced contract that might make him a player who will search for employment elsewhere. This is a very difficult league to have a long and highly-compensated career as a linebacker. We should keep that in mind when we talk about Parsons being Lawrence Taylor. Longevity and keeping your body right is a difficult prospect for any running back or linebacker. We have seen that play itself out in Dallas repeatedly.
Blake Jarwin/Dalton Schultz, tight end
This one also cleared itself up as football normally does. In the case of Blake Jarwin, we have a player whose body broke down and just couldn’t stay out there on the field. In the case of Dalton Schultz, he benefited by putting up a nice year of production and now makes $11 million or so this year on the franchise tag and can turn that into a multiyear deal very quickly if he does it again. Given the situation at tight end now, that should not be difficult.
Here are the five we think have the most at stake this year. This might not be full of all famous names that will attract the national shows, but they are all significant starters. They can either find themselves fighting to make the team in 2023 (or another team) or if things go right, they might have an entirely new tax bracket to get comfortable in because they will have earned significant money.
1. Tyron Smith, left tackle
As president of the Tyron Smith fan club, I regret to include this name, but we should probably not act surprised if this came to pass. I don’t completely see the Cowboys ever cutting ties with this legend, but we should never say never. Smith is still a fantastic player, but not what he was. His health has been well documented and his retirement is always somewhere on the board of possibilities. One clue is when the Cowboys stop restructuring a contract, we should realize they don’t want to marry it for future years. They have not touched his deal in a while and 2022 is his last year where the “walk-away” price would be prohibitive. It will be a sad day when Smith is no longer here, but at his price point, we should monitor the situation.
Tyron Smith (Tim Heitman / USA Today)
2. Dorance Armstrong, edge rusher
So this is how the NFL works for most players. They are drafted in the middle rounds and only run special teams for a few years. After Year 3, many of us were wondering if the Cowboys would bring back Dorance Armstrong in 2021 for the final year of a rookie contract that was not really going anywhere. But, then, at the end of his rookie deal, he started getting chances to rush the QB and was pretty good at doing it. Great news! Five sacks from a guy who doesn’t make a million dollars is tremendous value. But, it also happened right before the league could sign him to a new deal and then the Gregory situation put Armstrong in a spot where Dallas really needed him to stay. He was granted a two-year/$12 million deal and when you get $6 million a year, you hit the jackpot. The problem with that is that only 2022 is guaranteed and 2023 is mostly not. That means he needs to be a very impactful pass rusher this year or this will be his one year of high earning. When we speak about pivotal years, this is it. Either be a strong pass rusher every year or be the guy they will look at and wonder why they are paying him so much money. It is a tough way to make an easy living.
3. Anthony Brown, cornerback
Another member of the Cowboys’ memorable 2016 draft, Anthony Brown is now one of the veterans on this team. He also is finishing the veteran extension he signed going into 2020 of three years, $15.5 million. He has been a valuable tool. Over the past six seasons in Dallas, here is the entire list of Cowboys who have played more snaps than Brown: Zack Martin, Dak Prescott, Elliott and Smith. That’s right, no defenders. None. He has played hard, he has played well and he should get more appreciation for what he has done and what he has cost to do it. Yes, he is limited and no, he is not a top corner in this league. But, you need guys who fight hard and fill a role at a proper price. Brown is all of that. Again, as you get older, teams want to replace you with younger versions of you. Brown will battle this year for another deal and to ward off competition for that spot. The Cowboys will be watching carefully.
4. Donovan Wilson, safety
This one is interesting for me. I think Donovan Wilson was one of the few bright spots on the 2020 defense, but was unable to stay on the field for long stretches in 2021. When he did, the impact was far more limited as Dan Quinn had brought in a trio of veteran safeties to change the math. Wilson is the type of age where his flashes and splash plays might make him a coveted piece as a free agent next spring, but we know how this works. He also could be looking for any job anywhere next August. That is the way this league works. He is slated as the starter with Malik Hooker (Jayron Kearse plays his own position with the linebackers). Big year, to say the least.
5. Tyler Biadasz and Terence Steele, OL starters
Finally, these two are both 2020 entry players who will definitely be on the roster next year because the cost is too reasonable. They both make this list because they were named starters and are nearly unchallenged at those spots. They are being given every chance to lock down that spot and within a year could be approached by the team about extending their contracts three or four more years to promote stability. Of course, just like with Armstrong or even Prescott, the contract price goes up and suddenly so does the expectation level. You can live with mediocre play from a fourth-round rookie contract at center, but if you have to pay $8 million to $10 million a year to keep him, it won’t be as charming. Basically, with both the center and right tackle, they can either lock down the spot with above-average play for a veteran starter or expect Dallas to draft strong competition to replace them in 2023. It is how the conveyor belt of talent works.
That conveyor belt continues to turn and in a league where guaranteed contracts are rare, everyone on this list is realizing their places are not secured beyond this season if they don’t stake their claims immediately, if not sooner.