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By Bob Sturm 1h ago
The Cowboys help raise the curtains on NFL 2021 in incredibly short order in Tampa Bay on Thursday night. That will be the scene where the Buccaneers became the first team to win the Super Bowl on their home field and have since become the only team since the salary cap was instituted to return all 22 Super Bowl starters. This, of course, after becoming the only team in history to win a Super Bowl at the end of a playoff run where they beat three Super Bowl MVPs in their path as Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes all suffered the pain of playoff disappointment.
Needless to say, Week 1 presents a titanic challenge of the highest order for the Cowboys. We will preview that in its entirety soon.
Today, we take one last step back and The Athletic takes a swing at 10 predictions for the Cowboys in Year 2 under Mike McCarthy and what a return to the NFC Championship Game looks like for the first time since the birth of Michael Gallup. Gallup was born 50 days after the Cowboys last played in the 1996 NFC Championship Game (and 36 days since the last Super Bowl) and is one of 23 Cowboys on their final roster who were yet to be citizens on this planet when Dallas last tasted NFL glory. The hope is the team returns before all 53 have births that post-date the last Jerry Jones trophy hug.
1. Dak Prescott will return to a season of full health and easily exceed his career-high (30) for touchdowns in a season.
This one doesn’t seem too difficult unless you have been overcome with the gloom and doom of the latest shoulder health report. I am convinced that Prescott is on the brink of another step forward in his career. He has won plenty of games and he has amassed plenty of stats, but now we need to see it in the same season during a march to NFC contention and I am here to suggest that it is about to start. The time is right at the intersection of his maturation, the coaching staff’s assembly and the roster still having some of the older pieces at effective levels of performance along the offensive line. It will be a long step and there will be challenges along the way (Thursday!) that will require him to eliminate the turnovers, but I am here to bet on Dakota Prescott. He is ready to step forward again. Doubt him at your peril.
Dak Prescott (Matthew Emmons / USA Today)
2. Dan Quinn will navigate the defense to 16th best in points per game allowed.
This was covered at length last week if you would like some elaboration, but I believe the quest for Dallas to return to winning football rests on the defensive rise to average. Yes, the ultimate goal is to be an elite defense, but the pieces are only partially assembled and the ’21 draft class of defensive pieces needs more time in the oven to arrive at its destination. However, the goal for this season is to be assignment-sound and fundamentally in position to make plays and Quinn is more than capable of that. This defense needs to get off the field on third downs, stop the run early (without wide open paths to the end zone), and just look like a crew that has received coaching and organizational training in how 11 men should work together to slow down their opponent. Too often in the first half of last season the Cowboys looked like they were coaching themselves and that will not happen this season.
3. The linebacker job share will transform quickly into Micah Parsons all the time.
The Cowboys’ train will leave the station with this pie-in-the-sky routine that suggests everyone gets to play at linebacker, but I submit that in reality there is no successful defensive plan that doesn’t involve Parsons playing in every situation soon. He is a difference-maker and when you look across the field at 23-year-old Devin White and the factor he has been in Tampa Bay in his first two years and the fact he already has a ring on his finger is in no small part because he helped earn it. The only way White can make two-three difference-making plays a game is that his team knows he needs to be on the field in every situation to cause as much havoc as possible. There is no down and distance where Parsons isn’t the best answer. No disrespect to the memories and money spent on Jaylon Smith and to a lesser extent Leighton Vander Esch, but the planets should revolve around the kid.
4. The interior of the offensive line will continue to be the issue to watch.
I wish I had greater confidence in the center and left guard positions on this offense by simply assuring you that “it will be fine”, but this is really how games are decided and ultimately championships are won. Left guard and center have been unsteady since the retirement of Travis Frederick and for this offense to get back to balance and an effective Ezekiel Elliott, he will need Tyler Biadasz to develop quickly. People seem to forget that he is still looking for his first really impressive game as a pro. Also, the Connor McGovern/Connor Williams situation at LG and RG without Zack Martin in Week 1 will limit what Dallas can do offensively. A limited offense quickly becomes a predictable offense, which is not good news. This fire must be dealt with quickly.
5. Mike McCarthy will settle in as a capable leader of this franchise.
You knew I was going here. No offseason and no camp as a first-year coach put this team in a vice. No starting tackles all year and no starting QB for most of the year made him play every hand as a desperate gambler. He lost some embarrassing hands when he seemed to lead people to believe he had no idea what he was doing. I expect he remembers how to outlast tough divisional fights. He has done it most of his career. This will be a pivotal, and I think, positive year for his perception.
6. Tyron Smith will remind people he is just 30 years old and has many years left.
To hear big Tyron described by people, he is held together with duct tape and baling wire and I believe reports of his demise are greatly exaggerated. Smith is a key member of this operation and I suspect that 2021 will demonstrate that he still has it where it counts. Betting on his health after he hasn’t played 14 games in a season since Prescott has been drafted seems risky, but give me the “over” on Smith getting above 13.5 starts this year.
7. Randy Gregory is going to play well enough to convince you he needs a contract.
Whoa, Bob. Are you serious? Yes. I am. I think that this defensive plan is built around Gregory’s big year and I think Gregory’s big year is coming. We saw Robert Quinn and Aldon Smith both have nice seasons in this spot on the defense opposite Tank Lawrence and as the collective talent level has improved, so should the opportunities for Gregory to make a run at 10 sacks. If he gets there, the Cowboys need to keep him and while he has probably worn out his welcome with most fans, he is 28 and has a relationship with the organization that will allow a mutual win for both sides on a deal if he does his part.
8. We will see that Rome wasn’t built in a day in that secondary.
Given that the Cowboys’ secondary is a combination of players on one-year deals and players who had to go to class in the last year, it will certainly not resemble the “Legion of Boom” anytime soon. Patience will be the name of the game, but when one of the many opponents with an impressive array of downfield weapons has a field day, let us remember that rookies and one-year guys lose battles often. Dallas “is building” its defense, but do not confuse that with “have built” its defense.
9. Running the ball will be a real work in progress as will Zeke’s productivity.
I am willing to concede that we stopped asking tough questions this offseason about Elliott when the team basically locked him in financially through 2022. There is virtually no way in which Dallas doesn’t have him for at least two more years, so when he showed up motivated and lighter than ever to this camp and even the star of “Hard Knocks,” we moved on to other issues. But how much could this team flip a switch if it can swing that mighty sledgehammer and move the chains with Elliott behind this line? Unfortunately, it might take a few weeks to really see it. I don’t expect it to happen right away and I also think that leads us back to questions of the quality of the interior of this line.
10. The Cowboys are winning the NFC East.
I am willing to commit hard to this one. The Cowboys may or may not be in the mix to deal with Tampa Bay and Green Bay in the race back to the NFC Championship Game. Heck, they may not even be ready to deal with the heavyweights that survive the meat grinder in the NFC West. But, doggone it, Dallas is going to win this division. I am not here to suggest it will be easy by any stretch as we know Washington has a Tier 1 defense. The Giants and the Eagles will cause problems this year. I think the other three teams are fairly flawed and while Dallas is far from perfect, the Cowboys are also better than these bunkmates. You can say that was true last year, but Dallas was hit with more injuries than anyone would have survived. And this isn’t last year. This is the year Dallas wins the NFC East.
From there? Well, let’s get there first.
Wheels up to Florida. Let’s get it on.
