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Cowboys Pregame Three Thoughts: Week 2
The Home Opening visitor: our old friends the Saints who are still running it back.
Bob Sturm
Sep 14, 2024
The Cowboys will open the home portion of their 2024 campaign as a pretty significant favorite over a team that shares a fair amount of memories over the years, the New Orleans Saints.
This time, however, the Saints won’t have Sean Payton or Drew Brees to deal with as that franchise seems stuck in the middle. Are they contending? Well, not really. Are they rebuilding? No, not really. In fact, the average age of the Saints is dead-bang average and ranked 16th in the league. They are neither old, nor young. Are they moving on from the past? No. Are staying the course? I guess, but we aren’t sure what that is except a team that has no cap room as usual (they are projected to be $81 million over the cap in 2025…again).
It is sort of difficult to see the overall vision of these New Orleans Saints other than the fact that they are pot-committed to many players that do go back to Payton and Brees. Maybe, they just realize they play in a division where there might be several versions of this last paragraph and as we always point out; someone has to win this division. When that someone does, they will host a playoff game and if they win that they would be one win from a NFC Championship Game. So why not?
Maybe the truth is they have indifferent ownership right now – they do – and are just not too worried about the future at the moment.
It is against that backdrop that we consider the team that is coming to town full of confidence after destroying Carolina. We have a pretty good idea of what the Panthers are all about, but what we don’t know is whether the Saints have a team that can go on the road to a place like Dallas and stand toe-to-toe with a strong side.
We are about to find out.
There are a few traps for Dallas out there including the inevitable let down between showdown games vs Cleveland and Baltimore and the dreaded noon start in a home game. But, it is also the home opener and Mike McCarthy has certainly done a better job of avoiding those flat home games than his predecessor.
So, can Dallas maintain the good vibes of Week 1 and punch through a Saints side that we certainly feel they should? Or is this the week that we start to see some issues with the offense that were covered over in Cleveland by Browns incompetence?
Let’s dive in.
These are my Cowboys Pregame Three Thoughts:
– This is a spot where we need to see the Cowboys offense leading the dance. We need to see the ideal balanced attack to show what they are capable of. Sunday will be a great time to see if Dallas can go get a touchdown per quarter and start to produce.
When Dallas has the ball:
We are going to assume that Jake Ferguson is not going to play this week in this space. If somehow he doesn’t miss a single start after that ACL scare last week, we will shake our heads in amazement and be pleased, but for now, let’s assume this is a Luke Schoonmaker start. That, in turn, should allow Brevyn Spann-Ford a chance to be heard from more, but I think we got a hint last week that it might actually mean we get more Hunter Luepke who seems to be deployed often as a H-Back type FB/TE.
Either way, we know that the Saints are a pretty aggressive defense under Dennis Allen and we should expect man coverage and know that the Saints have been trying to manufacture pass pressure in creative ways because they don’t have a bunch of dudes up front at the moment. That isn’t to say Cam Jordan and Carl Granderson aren’t guys with resumes, but Jordan, like many of the familiar names on this roster is much closer to the end than the beginning of his career.
The matchups in our graphic above are probably not purely accurate as I would imagine if you had Marshon Lattimore you would want him chasing CeeDee Lamb all day. But, Lattimore’s hamstring and Lamb’s slot usage both might make that more difficult as we see every week.
In general, this is a great day to see if Dallas can get things done running the ball and to see it through more use for Rico Dowdle behind the young defensive line. Then, with play-action off of this type of attack, you begin to work in guys like Jalen Tolbert to make sure you don’t have to ask Lamb to do everything. He is great, but they have to certainly be aware of usage and saving him for those moments of most need.
This would be the game where McCarthy’s offense needs to methodically produce drives that include explosives and efficiency. I know these seem like broad concepts that lack specificity, but that fits here. If the question is whether this offense is truly a contender, then the ability to score 28 points and exceed 350 yards of production on a normal Sunday fits perfectly here.
This should be a normal Sunday. The Saints are visiting and we haven’t seen a home game since that wildcard disaster. This would be a fine time to go put a return to normalcy out there from the offense. A fast start and some strong production.
2023 NFL Team Rankings (I don’t switch to 2024 numbers until Week 4)
The Saints absolutely have some defenders we regard highly. Jordan and Lattimore, but also the excellent Demario Davis and Tyrann Mathieu all better be respected. I am also interested in the 1-year deal that they gave Chase Young after the 2nd overall pick in the 2020 draft was disappointed in the market for his services.
But, because he is coming off his best season with 74 QB pressures – his previous best was 42 in his rookie season – I believe he might be figuring things out. Evidently, the league did not agree enough to give him a multi-year deal, so he accepted a 1-year from the Saints for $13 million and then will hit free agency again next spring. He is just 25, so it will be interesting to see how this pans out.
Here is how Chase looked on Sunday against the Panthers and like I said, there is a lot to like. My guy Josh Clevenger circled him for you:
Five pressures and he drew a holding penalty, but no sacks. He will try to give Tyler Guyton some work on Sunday, I am sure.
Let’s flip the field.
– The Cowboys defense looked elite in Cleveland, but New Orleans has a scheme that will challenge the Dallas defense’s IQ. They use motion and deception very well and this may be as much a question of preparedness more than just a battle of might.
When New Orleans has the ball:
The Saints are a team that can put up some points and can take the top off a defense, but what makes them pretty interesting this season is it looks like under new OC Klint Kubiak that they are leaning more into scheme advantages with pre-snap motions, at-snap motions, multiple player motions, and overall trying to confuse and confound a defense.
Had the Cowboys played more teams like this under Mike Zimmer, we would have a level of comfort that they are ready for this challenge, but to be fair, this is nothing like how Cleveland wants to attack you. They wanted to bash you in the face where as the Saints want to deceive you enough to make you bust a coverage and then pounce.
The old Saints – under Sean Payton and Pete Carmichael – were always near the bottom of the league in using motion and pre-snap movement and obviously had a lot of success doing it when their personnel was just that good. But, this group probably needed an edge and as I watched their performance last week, it became clear that they were using motion to set up plays and then distracting eye-candy to deceive on others. The use of formations was getting the Panthers stretched and confused and while the Cowboys are a better defense than Carolina by a mile, we know that assignment sound football was not always a specialty on those bad days for the defense in recent times.
We assume Mike Zimmer is ready for all challenges on this front, but this will tell us where the Cowboys are in terms of being prepared for an offense that has some very interesting players and match-up issues beyond just the normal Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill duo.
Rashid Shaheed is a deep threat burner who will draw safeties all day and then Chris Olave, below, remains a very strong route-runner who was hardly thrown to in Week 1.
He gets open and he makes plays, so look for plenty of Olave on Sunday – especially going over the middle when the Cowboys use those MFO coverages like Zimmer will run with Cover 2, 4, and 6.
Basically, my questions for the Dallas defense is whether they are ready to play assignment-sound football.
2023 rankings which caused the Saints to get a new OC.
– We know this league throws plenty of unexpected results our way early in the season, but given the schedule quality, this is a game in which Dallas cannot afford any surprises. They need a strong performance.
I think this is one of those games that you have to put in the win column. Knowing that there were five very strong challenges in your first seven games:
As you know, I expected at Cleveland to be a very tough one to get and it was so easy. That means 5-2 is in play if you grab this one and you should.
New Orleans will challenge you on both sides of the ball, but I would be pretty disappointed if they aren’t fairly comfortable late in this one. Dallas appears to be a team that is on a different level than New Orleans right now and when you play a team like that at home, you need to go about your business and get the win.
I guess we will see if they can handle that soon enough.
The Home Opening visitor: our old friends the Saints who are still running it back.
Bob Sturm
Sep 14, 2024
The Cowboys will open the home portion of their 2024 campaign as a pretty significant favorite over a team that shares a fair amount of memories over the years, the New Orleans Saints.
This time, however, the Saints won’t have Sean Payton or Drew Brees to deal with as that franchise seems stuck in the middle. Are they contending? Well, not really. Are they rebuilding? No, not really. In fact, the average age of the Saints is dead-bang average and ranked 16th in the league. They are neither old, nor young. Are they moving on from the past? No. Are staying the course? I guess, but we aren’t sure what that is except a team that has no cap room as usual (they are projected to be $81 million over the cap in 2025…again).
It is sort of difficult to see the overall vision of these New Orleans Saints other than the fact that they are pot-committed to many players that do go back to Payton and Brees. Maybe, they just realize they play in a division where there might be several versions of this last paragraph and as we always point out; someone has to win this division. When that someone does, they will host a playoff game and if they win that they would be one win from a NFC Championship Game. So why not?
Maybe the truth is they have indifferent ownership right now – they do – and are just not too worried about the future at the moment.
It is against that backdrop that we consider the team that is coming to town full of confidence after destroying Carolina. We have a pretty good idea of what the Panthers are all about, but what we don’t know is whether the Saints have a team that can go on the road to a place like Dallas and stand toe-to-toe with a strong side.
We are about to find out.
There are a few traps for Dallas out there including the inevitable let down between showdown games vs Cleveland and Baltimore and the dreaded noon start in a home game. But, it is also the home opener and Mike McCarthy has certainly done a better job of avoiding those flat home games than his predecessor.
So, can Dallas maintain the good vibes of Week 1 and punch through a Saints side that we certainly feel they should? Or is this the week that we start to see some issues with the offense that were covered over in Cleveland by Browns incompetence?
Let’s dive in.
These are my Cowboys Pregame Three Thoughts:
– This is a spot where we need to see the Cowboys offense leading the dance. We need to see the ideal balanced attack to show what they are capable of. Sunday will be a great time to see if Dallas can go get a touchdown per quarter and start to produce.
When Dallas has the ball:
We are going to assume that Jake Ferguson is not going to play this week in this space. If somehow he doesn’t miss a single start after that ACL scare last week, we will shake our heads in amazement and be pleased, but for now, let’s assume this is a Luke Schoonmaker start. That, in turn, should allow Brevyn Spann-Ford a chance to be heard from more, but I think we got a hint last week that it might actually mean we get more Hunter Luepke who seems to be deployed often as a H-Back type FB/TE.
Either way, we know that the Saints are a pretty aggressive defense under Dennis Allen and we should expect man coverage and know that the Saints have been trying to manufacture pass pressure in creative ways because they don’t have a bunch of dudes up front at the moment. That isn’t to say Cam Jordan and Carl Granderson aren’t guys with resumes, but Jordan, like many of the familiar names on this roster is much closer to the end than the beginning of his career.
The matchups in our graphic above are probably not purely accurate as I would imagine if you had Marshon Lattimore you would want him chasing CeeDee Lamb all day. But, Lattimore’s hamstring and Lamb’s slot usage both might make that more difficult as we see every week.
In general, this is a great day to see if Dallas can get things done running the ball and to see it through more use for Rico Dowdle behind the young defensive line. Then, with play-action off of this type of attack, you begin to work in guys like Jalen Tolbert to make sure you don’t have to ask Lamb to do everything. He is great, but they have to certainly be aware of usage and saving him for those moments of most need.
This would be the game where McCarthy’s offense needs to methodically produce drives that include explosives and efficiency. I know these seem like broad concepts that lack specificity, but that fits here. If the question is whether this offense is truly a contender, then the ability to score 28 points and exceed 350 yards of production on a normal Sunday fits perfectly here.
This should be a normal Sunday. The Saints are visiting and we haven’t seen a home game since that wildcard disaster. This would be a fine time to go put a return to normalcy out there from the offense. A fast start and some strong production.
2023 NFL Team Rankings (I don’t switch to 2024 numbers until Week 4)
The Saints absolutely have some defenders we regard highly. Jordan and Lattimore, but also the excellent Demario Davis and Tyrann Mathieu all better be respected. I am also interested in the 1-year deal that they gave Chase Young after the 2nd overall pick in the 2020 draft was disappointed in the market for his services.
But, because he is coming off his best season with 74 QB pressures – his previous best was 42 in his rookie season – I believe he might be figuring things out. Evidently, the league did not agree enough to give him a multi-year deal, so he accepted a 1-year from the Saints for $13 million and then will hit free agency again next spring. He is just 25, so it will be interesting to see how this pans out.
Here is how Chase looked on Sunday against the Panthers and like I said, there is a lot to like. My guy Josh Clevenger circled him for you:
Five pressures and he drew a holding penalty, but no sacks. He will try to give Tyler Guyton some work on Sunday, I am sure.
Let’s flip the field.
– The Cowboys defense looked elite in Cleveland, but New Orleans has a scheme that will challenge the Dallas defense’s IQ. They use motion and deception very well and this may be as much a question of preparedness more than just a battle of might.
When New Orleans has the ball:
The Saints are a team that can put up some points and can take the top off a defense, but what makes them pretty interesting this season is it looks like under new OC Klint Kubiak that they are leaning more into scheme advantages with pre-snap motions, at-snap motions, multiple player motions, and overall trying to confuse and confound a defense.
Had the Cowboys played more teams like this under Mike Zimmer, we would have a level of comfort that they are ready for this challenge, but to be fair, this is nothing like how Cleveland wants to attack you. They wanted to bash you in the face where as the Saints want to deceive you enough to make you bust a coverage and then pounce.
The old Saints – under Sean Payton and Pete Carmichael – were always near the bottom of the league in using motion and pre-snap movement and obviously had a lot of success doing it when their personnel was just that good. But, this group probably needed an edge and as I watched their performance last week, it became clear that they were using motion to set up plays and then distracting eye-candy to deceive on others. The use of formations was getting the Panthers stretched and confused and while the Cowboys are a better defense than Carolina by a mile, we know that assignment sound football was not always a specialty on those bad days for the defense in recent times.
We assume Mike Zimmer is ready for all challenges on this front, but this will tell us where the Cowboys are in terms of being prepared for an offense that has some very interesting players and match-up issues beyond just the normal Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill duo.
Rashid Shaheed is a deep threat burner who will draw safeties all day and then Chris Olave, below, remains a very strong route-runner who was hardly thrown to in Week 1.
He gets open and he makes plays, so look for plenty of Olave on Sunday – especially going over the middle when the Cowboys use those MFO coverages like Zimmer will run with Cover 2, 4, and 6.
Basically, my questions for the Dallas defense is whether they are ready to play assignment-sound football.
2023 rankings which caused the Saints to get a new OC.
– We know this league throws plenty of unexpected results our way early in the season, but given the schedule quality, this is a game in which Dallas cannot afford any surprises. They need a strong performance.
I think this is one of those games that you have to put in the win column. Knowing that there were five very strong challenges in your first seven games:
- At Cleveland
- Baltimore
- At Pittsburgh
- Detroit
- At San Francisco
As you know, I expected at Cleveland to be a very tough one to get and it was so easy. That means 5-2 is in play if you grab this one and you should.
New Orleans will challenge you on both sides of the ball, but I would be pretty disappointed if they aren’t fairly comfortable late in this one. Dallas appears to be a team that is on a different level than New Orleans right now and when you play a team like that at home, you need to go about your business and get the win.
I guess we will see if they can handle that soon enough.
