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NFL free-agency dos and don'ts
Insider's former NFL executive outlines his top tips regarding free agency
Updated: March 5, 2014, 6:07 PM ET
By Bill Polian | ESPN Insider
In today's NFL, the proper approach to free agency starts with acknowledging a simple truth: GMs can't win in this game.
Free agency is almost always a bad value proposition. Teams will always look to keep their top homegrown players. So when a player reaches free agency, often it's because his team -- again, the people who know this player the best -- decided his projected production will not match the price of the contract demands. And if the team that knows the player better than anyone else is taking a pass, that clouds your evaluation before it even begins.
That said, players can also be on the market simply because teams are being squeezed by the cap. Sometimes teams can be victims of their own success. They end up with too many good players who all require too much money to keep and they're forced to part ways. Players coming from that circumstance are often better investments -- but they are few and far between. And that scarcity drives their price way, way up.
I took some heat for not spending big in free agency on other people's players, but too often I believed I wouldn't get a good return on the financial investment. So, despite the criticism, I took a very conservative approach to free agency, abiding by a list of dos and don'ts that helped my teams maintain a high level of success in both the short and long term.
These are my top tips in terms of how to approach free agency.
Note: An additional explanation of the grading methodologies can be found here. You can see them applied to the 2014 free-agent class with Bill Polian's Free-Agent Tracker.
1. Do fill needs and make sure the player has a specific scheme fit.
Free agency has a place in building your roster. If you find the right player to fit the right need and provide a missing component, it can be a good investment. But you want to make sure there is a precise reason you're adding that player.
2. Don't sign a player and change his techniques.
It is hard enough for players to adapt to a new team. For example, don't take a Tampa 2, 3-technique and expect him to become a Parcells/Belichick 3-4 DE. Those are totally different techniques, and players who have to make that type of adjustment don't make the transition well. Adapting and then trying to learn a new role on top of that adds complications that can ruin your investment. You could have a relatively brief window of return, so retraining shouldn't be a big part of it.
3. Do know the player you are signing very well.
In free agency, millions of dollars are on the line. If you miss, you'll feel it. So you'll want to be as informed as possible. You'll want to know a player's practice habits, his life off the field, his football intelligence, and any of his physical shortcomings, if any (and most have them). You'll gather this information through a variety of sources: a coach who has been with the player previously, a front-office person who knows the player personally, a trainer, your own psychological reports from when the player was in the draft, and your internal pro and college scouting reports. Even though those reports may seem dated, leopards usually don't change their spots. If there was a problem then, you can't assume it's no longer a problem now. You can't have a shortage of information.
4. Don't believe that "your culture" will change a person's behavior.
There is a tendency to believe that a player with character issues will turn things around if you put him in the right environment and provide the proper structure. I have rarely found that to be the case, particularly when the player is recruited and given big guaranteed dollars. If you don't want problems, don't sign problem players. Don't assume "your culture" is a fix.
5. Do realize that you are never one player away from a championship.
This game has a 100 percent injury rate, and your entire team's efficiency can be changed by just a few serious injuries. If only it were as easy as signing that "one" right player at the right time.
6. Do be very disciplined in sticking to your budget.
If you spend recklessly, there will inevitably come a time when you need the money that you no longer have. It sounds simple, but it's not an easy practice to execute.
7. Don't pay a player above his grade.
Don't give A-money (or years) to a B-player, and so on down the line. As discussed at the start of this article, the free-agent market as a whole is almost always a losing investment. Just because another team is willing to give a player a certain contract doesn't mean he's worth that price to your team. There is no universal price for a player because every player has a different value to each team. You need to trust your internal valuations and proceed off those figures, not the market.
8. Don't give A- or B-money (or years) to a player who doesn't play well on third down.
A- and B-grade free agents are supposed to be difference-makers and starters, respectively. If he's not playing well on third down, he's not earning his money. If a player is not even on the field on third down, he's definitely not earning big money.
9. Don't give a four-year or longer contract, even to an A-player, who is 28 years of age or older.
This rule doesn't apply to QBs, who can perform well beyond their age-31 season. For virtually every position besides centers, QBs and elite WRs, you will see a downturn in production beyond age 31. So if you give an older player a five-year deal, it's likely you're going to be eating a lot of dead money. And you might not get equal production for the contract in the meantime.
10. Don't give a long-term contract to players with a significant injury history.
Significant injuries would include multiple major surgeries or concussions, or degenerative joint disease -- as diagnosed by a team physician in the physical. If a player has not averaged 12 games or more in the last two seasons, that is also cause to steer clear.
11. Do beware of players whose production dramatically increases in their contract year.
If a player is lousy for three years and then spikes in Year 4 and becomes a world-beater, be careful. You're more likely to get the production from those first three seasons, but you'll be paying for the results of the fourth. It's not a knock on the effort of the first three years, it's a trust in the bigger sample size.
12. Don't chase the market, particularly for someone else's player, and don't allow agents to manipulate you.
There is a lot of pressure on GMs during this time of year. Everyone will be advocating for a deal that is in his best interest, so you have to make sure you do the same and stay focused on what's best for your team. Set the price you feel is fair, and if that price escalates, walk away.
13. Don't pay a free agent more money than the A-players or B-plus-players on your team.
This has to do with both rewarding loyalty and maintaining a balanced cost structure within your team. For example, if the Colts were in the WR market, don't pay a free-agent receiver more than you're paying Reggie Wayne. Why? Because it creates bad locker-room chemistry. Players might not know much about the history of football, but they all know what everyone at their position around the league is making.
14. Do save your money if you're not yet ready to contend.
This one is new, growing out of the latest collective bargaining agreement. Now, unused cap room can be rolled over as long as a team stays above the cap floor. To that end, don't waste your money on C-grade players, or even B-grade players who aren't going to help in the long term. Save your money and use it to extend your homegrown players.
If you follow these guidelines, I guarantee the following things will happen:
• A segment of your fans will be unhappy.
• The local media will be very unhappy. (And they won't credit you for the dollars spent re-signing your own free agents, either, even though that does count on your cap.)
• The agents will be unhappy with you ... and will be vocal about it.
• And all will say, "You're not trying to win."
That was fine with me, because in reality, by following this approach, there are tangible benefits.
Your cap will be well-managed, which is absolutely necessary for sustained success. And you will have the ability to sign your own free agents first -- and they must be a priority, especially when you're a good team.
Former Bills coach Marv Levy always said that the free agent you lose hurts you more than he helps his new team. Here's why: Historical trends show that it takes a free agent changing teams and systems almost a year to fit in and become really efficient. As much as GMs think about dead years at the end of contracts, and they do, you should also remember that the first year is unlikely to be a very productive one. It can be, but the odds are against it. Football is not baseball, basketball or hockey; as such, positions are far less interchangeable between teams.
WR Mike Wallace, for example, went for a king's ransom last offseason. At the end of the year, many analysts said he didn't perform as they expected. The Dolphins did not get what they paid for in that initial year. Next season might be a different story, but it's already cost them both time and money.
It is impossible to "win" in free agency. But following these tips helped me navigate the offseason and position our teams for success during my tenure in an NFL front office.
Insider's former NFL executive outlines his top tips regarding free agency
Updated: March 5, 2014, 6:07 PM ET
By Bill Polian | ESPN Insider
In today's NFL, the proper approach to free agency starts with acknowledging a simple truth: GMs can't win in this game.
Free agency is almost always a bad value proposition. Teams will always look to keep their top homegrown players. So when a player reaches free agency, often it's because his team -- again, the people who know this player the best -- decided his projected production will not match the price of the contract demands. And if the team that knows the player better than anyone else is taking a pass, that clouds your evaluation before it even begins.
That said, players can also be on the market simply because teams are being squeezed by the cap. Sometimes teams can be victims of their own success. They end up with too many good players who all require too much money to keep and they're forced to part ways. Players coming from that circumstance are often better investments -- but they are few and far between. And that scarcity drives their price way, way up.
I took some heat for not spending big in free agency on other people's players, but too often I believed I wouldn't get a good return on the financial investment. So, despite the criticism, I took a very conservative approach to free agency, abiding by a list of dos and don'ts that helped my teams maintain a high level of success in both the short and long term.
These are my top tips in terms of how to approach free agency.
Note: An additional explanation of the grading methodologies can be found here. You can see them applied to the 2014 free-agent class with Bill Polian's Free-Agent Tracker.
1. Do fill needs and make sure the player has a specific scheme fit.
Free agency has a place in building your roster. If you find the right player to fit the right need and provide a missing component, it can be a good investment. But you want to make sure there is a precise reason you're adding that player.
2. Don't sign a player and change his techniques.
It is hard enough for players to adapt to a new team. For example, don't take a Tampa 2, 3-technique and expect him to become a Parcells/Belichick 3-4 DE. Those are totally different techniques, and players who have to make that type of adjustment don't make the transition well. Adapting and then trying to learn a new role on top of that adds complications that can ruin your investment. You could have a relatively brief window of return, so retraining shouldn't be a big part of it.
3. Do know the player you are signing very well.
In free agency, millions of dollars are on the line. If you miss, you'll feel it. So you'll want to be as informed as possible. You'll want to know a player's practice habits, his life off the field, his football intelligence, and any of his physical shortcomings, if any (and most have them). You'll gather this information through a variety of sources: a coach who has been with the player previously, a front-office person who knows the player personally, a trainer, your own psychological reports from when the player was in the draft, and your internal pro and college scouting reports. Even though those reports may seem dated, leopards usually don't change their spots. If there was a problem then, you can't assume it's no longer a problem now. You can't have a shortage of information.
4. Don't believe that "your culture" will change a person's behavior.
There is a tendency to believe that a player with character issues will turn things around if you put him in the right environment and provide the proper structure. I have rarely found that to be the case, particularly when the player is recruited and given big guaranteed dollars. If you don't want problems, don't sign problem players. Don't assume "your culture" is a fix.
5. Do realize that you are never one player away from a championship.
This game has a 100 percent injury rate, and your entire team's efficiency can be changed by just a few serious injuries. If only it were as easy as signing that "one" right player at the right time.
6. Do be very disciplined in sticking to your budget.
If you spend recklessly, there will inevitably come a time when you need the money that you no longer have. It sounds simple, but it's not an easy practice to execute.
7. Don't pay a player above his grade.
Don't give A-money (or years) to a B-player, and so on down the line. As discussed at the start of this article, the free-agent market as a whole is almost always a losing investment. Just because another team is willing to give a player a certain contract doesn't mean he's worth that price to your team. There is no universal price for a player because every player has a different value to each team. You need to trust your internal valuations and proceed off those figures, not the market.
8. Don't give A- or B-money (or years) to a player who doesn't play well on third down.
A- and B-grade free agents are supposed to be difference-makers and starters, respectively. If he's not playing well on third down, he's not earning his money. If a player is not even on the field on third down, he's definitely not earning big money.
9. Don't give a four-year or longer contract, even to an A-player, who is 28 years of age or older.
This rule doesn't apply to QBs, who can perform well beyond their age-31 season. For virtually every position besides centers, QBs and elite WRs, you will see a downturn in production beyond age 31. So if you give an older player a five-year deal, it's likely you're going to be eating a lot of dead money. And you might not get equal production for the contract in the meantime.
10. Don't give a long-term contract to players with a significant injury history.
Significant injuries would include multiple major surgeries or concussions, or degenerative joint disease -- as diagnosed by a team physician in the physical. If a player has not averaged 12 games or more in the last two seasons, that is also cause to steer clear.
11. Do beware of players whose production dramatically increases in their contract year.
If a player is lousy for three years and then spikes in Year 4 and becomes a world-beater, be careful. You're more likely to get the production from those first three seasons, but you'll be paying for the results of the fourth. It's not a knock on the effort of the first three years, it's a trust in the bigger sample size.
12. Don't chase the market, particularly for someone else's player, and don't allow agents to manipulate you.
There is a lot of pressure on GMs during this time of year. Everyone will be advocating for a deal that is in his best interest, so you have to make sure you do the same and stay focused on what's best for your team. Set the price you feel is fair, and if that price escalates, walk away.
13. Don't pay a free agent more money than the A-players or B-plus-players on your team.
This has to do with both rewarding loyalty and maintaining a balanced cost structure within your team. For example, if the Colts were in the WR market, don't pay a free-agent receiver more than you're paying Reggie Wayne. Why? Because it creates bad locker-room chemistry. Players might not know much about the history of football, but they all know what everyone at their position around the league is making.
14. Do save your money if you're not yet ready to contend.
This one is new, growing out of the latest collective bargaining agreement. Now, unused cap room can be rolled over as long as a team stays above the cap floor. To that end, don't waste your money on C-grade players, or even B-grade players who aren't going to help in the long term. Save your money and use it to extend your homegrown players.
If you follow these guidelines, I guarantee the following things will happen:
• A segment of your fans will be unhappy.
• The local media will be very unhappy. (And they won't credit you for the dollars spent re-signing your own free agents, either, even though that does count on your cap.)
• The agents will be unhappy with you ... and will be vocal about it.
• And all will say, "You're not trying to win."
That was fine with me, because in reality, by following this approach, there are tangible benefits.
Your cap will be well-managed, which is absolutely necessary for sustained success. And you will have the ability to sign your own free agents first -- and they must be a priority, especially when you're a good team.
Former Bills coach Marv Levy always said that the free agent you lose hurts you more than he helps his new team. Here's why: Historical trends show that it takes a free agent changing teams and systems almost a year to fit in and become really efficient. As much as GMs think about dead years at the end of contracts, and they do, you should also remember that the first year is unlikely to be a very productive one. It can be, but the odds are against it. Football is not baseball, basketball or hockey; as such, positions are far less interchangeable between teams.
WR Mike Wallace, for example, went for a king's ransom last offseason. At the end of the year, many analysts said he didn't perform as they expected. The Dolphins did not get what they paid for in that initial year. Next season might be a different story, but it's already cost them both time and money.
It is impossible to "win" in free agency. But following these tips helped me navigate the offseason and position our teams for success during my tenure in an NFL front office.
