Long read but interesting.
James Harden's Case For MVP In Seven Charts
http://www.si.com/nba/2017/03/27/james-harden-nba-mvp-case-rockets-russell-westbrook
7. Harden’s Rockets are the NBA’s biggest overachievers
The bounce-back nature of Harden’s season is perhaps the easiest conversational strain for many observers to grasp. No Dwight Howard! No Khloe Kardashian! No excess weight! No early-season coaching drama! New teammates! Harden is a new man!
Overly crediting Harden for Houston’s turnaround would be a mistake. He must remain accountable for the Rockets’ messy 2015-16 season given his personality conflict with Howard, his off-court distractions and his slow start. Voting for any candidate primarily because he turned in a better season than the year before would be a mistake. Meanwhile, Westbrook’s supporters might argue that Harden has better teammates and that the Thunder, who are the West’s No. 6 seed and could move up, have also significantly overachieved.
A look back at preseason expectations, however, tells a different story. Back in October, oddsmaking service Bovada set Houston’s over-under line at 44 and Oklahoma City’s line at 43.5. In other words, Las Vegas viewed these two teams as virtually identical when the season opened. Since then, the Rockets (51-22) are on a 57-win pace while the Thunder (41-31) are on a 47-win pace. That’s a major gap in performance.
As it turns out, the Rockets haven’t just outpaced the Thunder when it comes to overachieving, they’ve blown away the entire league. This chart compares the preseason over/under lines to current winning percentage to determine the league’s biggest overachievers. Houston is tops by a healthy margin and appears in red.
To boil down the results of this exercise, Harden’s MVP case looks like this:
1. His per-game numbers are unmatched by any MVP since 1980
2. His efficiency/usage numbers are in line with recent MVP winners and better than his fellow MVP candidates
3. His preferred methods for scoring are directly in line with current best practices
4. He is the most productive playmaker for his teammates in the league
5. He is the engine of one of the most effective and forward-thinking offenses in recent memory
6. He excels at making the game look easy
7. And his team is the NBA’s biggest overachiever and boasts one of the league’s best records.
There are arguments to be made for other candidates, including Westbrook, and voters should wait to make their final decisions until the season ends in a few weeks. As it stands now, though, Harden deserves to be viewed as the clear frontrunner.