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By Jon Machota 2h ago
FRISCO, Texas — Cowboys linebacker Leighton Vander Esch seemed surprised by the question.
Through 12 weeks, Dallas finds itself in last place in the NFC East at 3-8, but only a game back of the division lead.
Given how historically bad the division is, it has to be something that’s talked about among teammates, right?
“Don’t take this personal, but I think that’s a ridiculous question,” Vander Esch responded Wednesday. “We’re focusing on ourselves, we’re focusing on what we can do to make the playoffs. That comes week after week after week. We focus on ourselves every single day in practice, every meeting, getting the most out of it, taking it slow, not getting too far ahead of ourselves, not worrying about other teams in our division or other teams around the league.”
The bar has been set so low in the NFC East that although Dallas can’t finish any better than 8-8, they still have an opportunity to host a playoff game.
“It’s still all there in front of us,” wide receiver Michael Gallup said. “We say it every week. Now you’ve just really got to dig in and believe it.”
Added center Joe Looney: “It gives us something to play for. We’ve still got a chance of holding up that trophy at the end of the year, so I think that’s always exciting.”
Never has Jim Mora’s famous news conference rant from 2001 better fit an entire division. The then-Indianapolis Colts coach was asked by a reporter following a loss to the San Francisco 49ers if the team would have to win out to make the playoffs.
“Ah, playoffs,” Mora responded. “Don’t talk about … playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game. Another game.”
The Colts had just dropped to 4-6 — a record that would currently put them in first place in the NFC East.
HOW BAD IS IT?
The four NFC East teams — Cowboys, Eagles, Giants and Washington — have a combined record of 14-29-1. Nine of those wins have come within the division. The other five have been over the Bengals (twice), 49ers, Falcons and Vikings. All four teams have losing records.
The NFC East is on pace to have only the third team in NFL history make the playoffs with a losing record. The others were the 2010 Seattle Seahawks (7-9) and the 2014 Carolina Panthers (7-8-1). The Seahawks went on to defeat the New Orleans Saints in their wild-card matchup before losing to the Chicago Bears in the divisional round. The Panthers also won in the wild-card round, defeating the Arizona Cardinals before falling to the Seahawks in the divisional round.
This season’s NFC East has a chance to be worse than both of those teams, possibly sending a team with only five or six wins to the playoffs. The NFL Draft impact is also interesting. All four teams are currently in position for a top-eight pick. However, a playoff team can’t pick higher than 19th. Members of all four teams would say right now that they’d prefer making the playoffs, even if it means probably losing in the wild-card round. But it will cost them in April when, instead of selecting at the top of each round, they’ll be picking in the middle.
Here are some graphs that break down just how poorly the division ranks comparatively going back to 2002. The Y-axis measures teams based on our own Ethan Douglas’ Expected Power Rating metric. The X-axis indicates regular-season wins. The current projection has the Giants winning the division at 6-10.
This graph reflects point differential across the league.
Not only is it the worst division in terms of wins and losses, but each team has a negative point differential, with the Cowboys ranking second to last in the NFL at minus-108. The graph below showcases the aggregate EPR of every division going back to 2002. The 2020 NFC East has spent much of this season in the bottom spot and has a chance to finish there.
HOW DID WE GET HERE?
Rick Gosselin has covered the NFL for 48 years. He has never seen anything like this year’s NFC East.
He believes that, given how the NFL has been designed for parity, this season will be looked back upon as an outlier. Many have suggested the league needs to change its rules and prevent teams with losing records from making the playoffs. Gosselin doesn’t see that happening, but he thinks they could adjust so that a division champion with a losing record doesn’t get to host a wild-card game.
“That’s the whole key to the NFL: They want eight division races,” said Gosselin, a Hall of Fame voter and 2004 winner of the Pro Football Writer’s Association’s McCann Award. “They want fan bases to be excited that your team can go 6-10 and still win the division. Two or three teams are going to be playoff contenders in every division. It’s for the fans. They want people buying merchandise and tickets because their team is going to have a chance to win the division.”
From 1986 to 1995, Washington, Dallas and New York combined to win seven Super Bowls in 10 years. Gosselin calls that the gold-standard era for the division. NFC East teams have won three Super Bowls in the last 13 seasons. No team has won the division in back-to-back years since 2004.
So, what happened?
“I’ll give you three reasons,” Gosselin said. “Take it back to the gold-standard era. Bill Parcells, Joe Gibbs and Jimmy Johnson — three Hall of Fame coaches. Do you see any Hall of Fame coaches in this division? That’s the difference. They had great, great coaches. Some of the best coaches in history.
“Back in the late 80s, early 90s, those games were wars. You couldn’t wait for a division game. Hall of Fame players on both sides of the ball. Hall of Fame coaches on the sidelines. There was greatness on the field and greatness on the sidelines. And the games were greatness. Those teams hated each other. There are memories from that era.
“There are no memories from this era.”
