Machota: Cowboys’ draft-and-develop plan can work, but they appear at least one move short

[Cotton]

By Jon Machota
3h ago
7

The Cowboys have made it clear that they aren’t interested in attempting to replicate the blueprint the Los Angeles Rams used last season to win the Super Bowl.

Forbes reported Monday that not only are the Cowboys the most valuable franchise in sports, but they are the first to have an estimated worth of $8 billion. Combine that with going 26 years without reaching the conference championship game and that sounds exactly like a team that should be interested in the Rams’ approach of “going all in” with several aggressive roster moves.

Dallas, however, has gone in the opposite direction this offseason, moving on from expensive key veterans WR Amari Cooper, RT La’el Collins and DE Randy Gregory. According to OverTheCap.com, the Cowboys have the NFL’s third-most salary-cap space, just over $21 million. It’s been a while since the Cowboys were a major player in free agency, but they are now more committed than ever to their plan of drafting, developing and then paying their own.

Coach Mike McCarthy has spoken several times over the past month about how the draft-and-develop philosophy was used while he was coaching the Green Bay Packers. And that might just work if Dallas continues to pick players like Micah Parsons, Trevon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, Dak Prescott and Zack Martin. But it’s been a while since a team reached the Super Bowl with a roster that didn’t include at least one significant move in free agency or via trade. The Cowboys say that making a Super Bowl run is their goal for 2022, but NFL trends say they are likely at least one more move away.

As the roster is currently constructed, the most notable outside additions are lower-tier free agency investments such as safety Jayron Kearse, DE Dante Fowler, safety Malik Hooker, LB Anthony Barr, WR James Washington, DE Tarell Basham and punter Bryan Anger. None of those players are among the top 10 highest-paid on the roster this season. The Cowboys have had a player that fit those criteria on their past four teams to reach the playoffs (2021, 2018, 2016, 2014). Over the previous four seasons, it was Cooper, who they traded a first-round pick for in 2018. They didn’t have a player like that in 2017, but did from 2012 through 2016 with CB Brandon Carr, who they signed for five years, $50 million in 2012.

This might not seem like a big deal. It’s only one player, but every team to reach the Super Bowl over the past decade has had at least one of those players.

As much as McCarthy’s Packers teams were about drafting and developing, even his best years included one of those players. McCarthy led Green Bay to the NFC Championship Game four times in 13 seasons. The 2007 and 2010 teams had DB Charles Woodson, who signed with the Packers in 2006 for seven years, $53 million. The 2014 and 2016 teams had DE Julius Peppers, who signed with Green Bay in 2014 for three years, $30 million.

Even the last three Cowboys teams to win the Super Bowl had DE Charles Haley, who they traded a second- and third-round pick for in 1992, and then CB Deion Sanders, who signed for seven years, $35 million in 1995.

Drafting and developing is a smart way to go, but most current championship teams seem to need at least one major investment from outside of the building to put things over the top. The 2010 Pittsburgh Steelers are probably the last team to reach the Super Bowl without one. Former Cowboys offensive tackle Flozell Adams was that team’s biggest acquisition. The starting right tackle signed with Pittsburgh for two years, $7.5 million in 2010. Outside of him, most of the Steelers’ key pieces were homegrown. But that team is the outlier. Even going all the way back to 2000, most teams to reach the Super Bowl included at least one major contributor who was added through free agency or trade.

There aren’t a lot of great options remaining in free agency that would likely fill that need for the 2022 Cowboys. Wide receiver, offensive line and kicker are their three biggest areas of concern. Odell Beckham Jr., Will Fuller and T.Y. Hilton are some of the top free-agent wide receivers. None of the available offensive linemen or kickers would fall in that category of significant roster additions. The best way to bolster one of those areas is by doing exactly what the Cowboys did in 2018 when they traded for Cooper. They certainly have the cap space to take on a notable player from another team. Obviously parting with a high draft pick in a trade doesn’t exactly help the “draft-and-develop” process, but if the right veteran is acquired, history shows it could be the move that puts your team over the top.

To give you an idea of how previous championship contenders improved their rosters through trades and free agency signings, here’s a brief breakdown of every team to reach the Super Bowl since 2010.

2021

The Super Bowl champion Rams had a roster that included QB Matthew Stafford (traded multiple first-round picks in 2021), CB Jalen Ramsey (traded multiple first-round picks in 2019), DE Von Miller (traded second- and third-round picks in 2021), LB Leonard Floyd (free agent signing: one year, $10 million in 2020 and then four years, $64 million in 2021).

The runner-up Bengals had DE Trey Hendrickson (FA signing: four years, $60 million in 2021).

2020

The Super Bowl champion Buccaneers had QB Tom Brady (FA signing: two years, $50 million in 2020), DT Ndamukong Suh (FA signing: one year, 9.25 million in 2019, one year, $8 million in 2020), TE Rob Gronkowski (traded fourth-round pick and then signed him for one year, $9.25 million).

The runner-up Chiefs had safety Tyrann Mathieu (FA signing: three years, $42 million in 2019).

2019

The Super Bowl champion Chiefs had Mathieu.

The runner-up 49ers had CB Richard Sherman (FA signing: three years, $39 million in 2018).

2018

The Super Bowl champion Patriots had CB Stephon Gilmore (FA signing: five years, $65 million in 2017).

The runner-up Rams had Suh (FA signing: one year, $14 million in 2018).

2017

The Super Bowl champion Eagles had WR Alshon Jeffery (FA signing: one year, $14 million in 2017).
The runner-up Patriots had Gilmore.

2016

The Super Bowl champion Patriots had DE Jabaal Sheard (FA signing: two years, $11 million in 2015). He was the fifth-highest paid player on New England’s roster that season.

The runner-up Falcons had center Alex Mack (FA signing: five years, $45 million in 2016).

2015

The Super Bowl champion Broncos had DE DeMarcus Ware (FA signing: three years, $30 million in 2014).

The runner-up Panthers had TE Greg Olsen (traded a third-round pick and then signed him for five years, $23 million in 2011).

2014

The Super Bowl champion Patriots had CB Darrelle Revis (FA signing: one year, $12 million in 2014).

The runner-up Seahawks had RB Marshawn Lynch (traded fourth- and fifth-round picks for in 2010 and then signed for four years, $30 million in 2012), DE Cliff Avril (FA signing: two years, $13 million in 2013 and then four years, $28.5 million in 2014), DE Michael Bennett (FA signing: one year, $5 million in 2013 and then four years, $28.5 million in 2014).

2013

The Super Bowl champion Seahawks had Lynch, Avril and Bennett.

The runner-up Broncos had QB Peyton Manning (FA signing: five years, $96 million in 2012).

2012

The Super Bowl champion Ravens had WR Anquan Boldin (traded third- and fourth-round picks for in 2010 and then paid him three years, $22 million), center Matt Birk (FA signing: three years, $12 million in 2009 and then three years, $8.5 million in 2012), LT Bryant McKinnie (FA signing: two years, $7.5 million in 2011).

The runner-up 49ers had DE Justin Smith (FA signing: six years, $45 million in 2008), K David Akers (FA signing: three years, $9 million in 2011), WR Randy Moss (FA signing: one year, $2.5 million in 2012).

2011

The Super Bowl champion Giants had safety Antrel Rolle (FA signing: five years, $37 million in 2010), DL Chris Canty (FA signing: six years, $42 million in 2009).
The runner-up Patriots had WR Chad Johnson (traded fifth- and sixth-round picks for him and then signed him for three years, $12 million in 2011), DE Shaun Ellis (FA signing: one year, $4 million in 2011).

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Now we see why Steve loved McCarthy so much.

"I hate paying free agents. Hate it. I'm not gonna do it."

"Well in Green Bay we never paid free agents, so we had to draft and develop."

"You're hired!"

 

[p1_]

This article won’t change anything or tell us here what we don’t already know.

 

[Simpleton]

Draft and develop is perfectly fine as an overarching philosophy but because Stephen doesn't actually understand football at an instinctive level he struggles being flexible and creative.

We'd be perfectly fine if we made a strategic, impact FA move every 2-3 years. This year Von Miller would've made tons of sense with how the rest of our roster is constructed and Parsons looking like a generational front 7 player, but Stephen isn't able to think outside of the little box he's created for himself because he doesn't actually understand football at the level of someone who worked their way up through front offices on their own merits.

 

[boozeman]

Nearly every team that tries to “draft and develop” ends up realizing it is not 100% sustainable.

Except Dallas.

 

[p1_]

Nearly every team that tries to “draft and develop” ends up realizing it is not 100% sustainable.

Except Dallas.

Or that it’s not a sound approach to ultimate success.

 

[Simpleton]

Nearly every team that tries to “draft and develop” ends up realizing it is not 100% sustainable.

Except Dallas.

Yea, that's because the results don't come and front offices are forced to tinker/change how they do things because if they don't they'll lose their jobs.

But that of course isn't a concern here.

 

[Genghis Khan]

Draft and develop is perfectly fine as an overarching philosophy but because Stephen doesn't actually understand football at an instinctive level he struggles being flexible and creative.

We'd be perfectly fine if we made a strategic, impact FA move every 2-3 years. This year Von Miller would've made tons of sense with how the rest of our roster is constructed and Parsons looking like a generational front 7 player, but Stephen isn't able to think outside of the little box he's created for himself because he doesn't actually understand football at the level of someone who worked their way up through front offices on their own merits.

This is exactly how I look at it.

Draft and develop is probably preferable as a general philosophy.

But the issue is you're never going to have a 100% hit rate in the draft, which means you'll inevitably have at least a hole or two in your roster even if you're good at drafting.

And that's fine. But if you're starting to get close to being a contender, the best way to fill that hole or two is the FA/trade market because if you wait to draft and develop more at those roster holes, other holes are going to spring up.

The best reason to be conservative in your roster building is so you can have the cap flexibility to add a couple guys to get you over the hump.

And if you don't add an outside guy or two, you're forever Sisyphus, pushing your bolder up the hill but never quite making it to the top before the weight of it crushes you back to the bottom.

 

[Simpleton]

This is exactly how I look at it.

Draft and develop is probably preferable as a general philosophy.

But the issue is you're never going to have a 100% hit rate in the draft, which means you'll inevitably have at least a hole or two in your roster even if you're good at drafting.

And that's fine. But if you're starting to get close to being a contender, the best way to fill that hole or two is the FA/trade market because if you wait to draft and develop more at those roster holes, other holes are going to spring up.

The best reason to be conservative in your roster building is so you can have the cap flexibility to add a couple guys to get you over the hump.

And if you don't add an outside guy or two, you're forever Sisyphus, pushing your bolder up the hill but never quite making it to the top before the weight of it crushes you back to the bottom.

Yep, and it'll take Stephen another 15 years to figure this out probably.

Our only hope is getting extremely lucky and having everything fall into place in terms of building through the draft, of bringing in a Parcells-type figure at HC who has enough sway with Stephen/Jerry to get them to do things slightly differently.

That's the main value/hope I see in a guy like Payton.

 

[Genghis Khan]

Or that it’s not a sound approach to ultimate success.

I think it is actually a sound approach assuming you draft reasonably well (which we do).

The problem is, you have to recognize where on your roster that approach hasn't yielded results yet, and if you're otherwise ready to contend you have to come out of your bubble for a minute and plug a couple holes.

That article above is a little misleading because yes each of those past champions listed did bring in free agents/trades, that doesn't necessarily mean those guys were the difference.

For example, they mention Alshon Jeffery for the Eagles. He was a nice player for them and was needed because they had little else at WR, but they expected way more than they got from him overall. I think he had 50ish catches and 800 or so yards. They could have gotten his production from cheaper signings. But they needed someone at the position.

The guy that really put them over the top though was Jay Ajayi. And he wasn't super expensive but it was an area they had a hole and they addressed it.

And that's really the point. I don't think you have to break the bank on an outside guy like the article suggests (though it helps), but you do need to effectively plug holes and add depth.

 

[p1_]

Yep, and it'll take Stephen another 15 years to figure this out probably.

Our only hope is getting extremely lucky and having everything fall into place in terms of building through the draft, of bringing in a Parcells-type figure at HC who has enough sway with Stephen/Jerry to get them to do things slightly differently.

That's the main value/hope I see in a guy like Payton.

you could view the flawed Jones mindset as a problem for a Payton, and a reason he might hesitate to take this gig, should it come open.

 

[Rogerthat]

Now we see why Steve loved McCarthy so much.

"I hate paying free agents. Hate it. I'm not gonna do it."

"Well in Green Bay we never paid free agents, so we had to draft and develop."

"You're hired!"

I think the Brandon Carr experiment caused a whole different philosophical change in FA acquisition.
Up until then, risk/reward contract opportunities were taken with genuine impactful free agents.

They changed their whole way of business post-Carr contract to has beens and hospital ward cases.

They had that one year with the one year prove it trio of Cobb, Bennett and Quinn but mostly it's been a bunch of whiffs.

To not be able to grasp how vital FA acquisition is to successful roster building is just another Jerry and Stephen specialty of their we do it our way/we like our guys extremes resulting in this current near 3 decades old success drought.

 

[ravidubey]

Nearly every team that tries to “draft and develop” ends up realizing it is not 100% sustainable.

Except Dallas.

The most successful franchises like the Steelers, Packers, Saints, and Pats this past decade, besides being set at QB, succeeded by drafting well enough and always supplementing with FAs of all kinds from the expensive to role players.

Dallas has had decent QBing in Romo and Dak, but never went all in on good+ FA’s even once, and that includes signing Brandon Carr in 2012.

 

[boozeman]

3 & Out: This Is Truly A 'Draft & Develop' Team
Aug 31, 2022 at 11:00 AM

Rob Phillips
DallasCowboys.com Senior Writer

FRISCO, Texas – Back with three quick topics on the Dallas Cowboys following their roster cuts to 53, just a week and a half from the season opener against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

• Draft & Develop
• Tyler Smith & Left Tackle
• The WR Question

I Know…

the term "draft and develop" might sound like a sports trope, but the Cowboys' initial 53-man roster shows they're all-in on that approach, coined and referenced many times by head coach Mike McCarthy.

I don't know if I have the time or desire to count this up for every team and compare, but this is actually pretty wild: 46 of the 53 players on the current roster began their NFL careers with the Cowboys, either as draft picks or rookie free agents.

The only exceptions: wide receiver James Washington, defensive ends Dante Fowler and Tarell Basham, linebacker Anthony Barr, safeties Jayron Kearse and Malik Hooker and punter Bryan Anger.

That's 87% draft and develop. (Or, if we're being technical, draft/sign and develop.) And over half of the group (29 players) came from the last two draft classes.

I'm gonna take a wild guess and say that ranks pretty high in the league for homegrown players.

Now, you might take this one of two ways. One, it shows the Cowboys' eye for scouting and drafting players who can contribute on salary cap friendly rookie contracts, a necessity when the franchise quarterback (Dak Prescott) is one of the league's highest-paid players. Or, maybe it supports your stance that the Cowboys must add more players in free agency to take the next step in the playoffs.

Either way, it's clear that the Cowboys are committed to the guys they've brought in. Two prime examples are positions that we've been talking about the most since training camp began: offensive tackle and wide receiver.
More on that below.

I would be hypocritical if I criticized the Cowboys for Tyler Smith's lack of practice time at left tackle heading into Week 1.

I Think…

I had no problem with the Cowboys shifting Smith to guard full-time in training camp. Tyron Smith entered camp fully healthy, and the club wanted to give Tyler every chance to play right away and add some power to the run game in particular. If that meant letting him focus entirely on guard, a position he hasn't played since North Crowley High School in nearby Fort Worth, so be it.

Now that's all pretty much moot. Tyron's hamstring injury has reshuffled the deck, and Tyler is the expected replacement at left tackle for the foreseeable future. Is two weeks enough time to get him ready for the Bucs' defensive front, though? The Cowboys must think so, unless Tyler's ankle sprain – "a little high ankle," team owner/GM Jerry Jones said – resurfaces over the next couple weeks.

If you want to take issue with the Cowboys' big-picture approach at left tackle, you can argue a couple things. Why did they cut La'el Collins in the offseason? Well, they decided Terence Steele had earned the right tackle job full time, and $10 million is a huge amount on the salary cap if Collins were to become a backup. OK, so why didn't they cover themselves once fifth-round pick Matt Waletzko injured his shoulder the third day of training camp? Basically, it goes back to the "draft and develop" thing. Instead of signing a veteran backup – an approach they've taken the past several years with so-so results – they gave those extra reps to Josh Ball, a 2021 fourth-round pick, and Waletzko when he returned to practice last week. This week, when hundreds of players are released around the league, there's more opportunity to find veteran help if they so choose.

And, circling back to Tyler Smith, it now appears that he's always been their break-glass fallback plan if anything happened to Tyron, who hasn't played a full season since 2015.

"We knew – we just didn't want it come any earlier than it needed – but we knew we had to get ready to replace our left tackle. And he was the pick," Jones said.

The good news: we only have to wait a few more days to find out if the plan works.

I Have No Idea…

if wide receiver will turn out to be as big a concern as many outside The Star fear, but the Cowboys are probably looking at 2009 as a reference, not 2018.

If you're a pessimist about the receiver rotation without Amari Cooper, you've probably pointed to 2018, when the Cowboys didn't adequately replace Dez Bryant and subsequently traded for Cooper at the deadline that year.

If you're an optimist, it's probably based on a couple things. First, CeeDee Lamb is more of a viable No. 1 option than anyone the Cowboys had in 2018. Second, the receiver group will soon get back a viable No. 2 option, Michael Gallup, though he's coming off a major injury.

If you're leaning into the bright side, there's this, too: The Cowboys have actually replaced a star receiver twice in the last dozen years. In 2018, it didn't work. In 2009, they pressed forward with Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton after cutting Terrell Owens, and the group didn't really take off, either … until Miles Austin emerged with that 250-yard outburst at Kansas City just before the bye week.

Austin made the Pro Bowl that season. It's like he flipped on a light switch in his fourth year.

Who knows, maybe Noah Brown can do that in his sixth season – if not as a Pro Bowler, at least as a productive and reliable option for Dak Prescott. Brown is the most tenured receiver on the team, after all. He had an outstanding camp, looked quicker, and he's always had good tools. Maybe this is a light-switch year, too.

Again, only a few more days before we actually get to find out.

 

[Cotton]

46 of the 53 players on the current roster began their NFL careers with the Cowboys, either as draft picks or rookie free agents.

Wow, you could take that any number of ways. Either we are really really good at drafting and developing, or we keep guys we shouldn't. But, most likely it just means we never do fucking shit in FA.

 

[Cotton]

Who knows, maybe Noah Brown can do that in his sixth season

God dammit, Rob, it was a great article until this.

 

[Cotton]

Brown is the most tenured receiver on the team

Let that sink in.

 

[p1_]

Wow, you could take that any number of ways. Either we are really really good at drafting and developing, or we keep guys we shouldn't. But, most likely it just means we never do fucking shit in FA.

Occam’s razor.

 

[ravidubey]

Wow, you could take that any number of ways. Either we are really really good at drafting and developing, or we keep guys we shouldn't. But, most likely it just means we never do fucking shit in FA.

Basically it’s like pre-1993 in Dallas.

As in, expect nothing but the draft, some fringe role players, and maybe a major trade every ten years.

Only works if you hit out of the park on draft day, starting at QB.

 

[UncleMilti]

Pretty simple-Dallas will never take a risk like the Rams or Bucs to win a SB, no matter how loud the chant becomes. Owners who actually worry and care about their on field product and GMs who can lose their job because of poor decisions or bad draft picks tend to really analyze and be accountable for everything they do.
The Dildo Twins can’t be fired for poor performance and only care about making money. And that’s exactly why this team hasn’t won shit in 30 years and won’t win shit until PT Barnum is dead and little Stevie has to hire a real GM.