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Red-flag NFL draft prospects
Statistics tell an interesting story for a handful of highly rated prospects
Updated: April 29, 2014, 2:09 PM ET
By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
Most of the NFL draft discussion this time of year revolves around the strengths of blue-chip prospects, but just as much attention should be paid to the red flags of some of these prospects. It takes just one significant weakness for a player to go from productive selection to a pick that doesn't pan out, and some of the elite talents in this year's draft crop have this flaw, in the form of a metric red flag that suggests some level of buyer beware should be in order.
Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina Gamecocks
Red flag: low volume of one-on-one sacks
There have been a litany of reasons to account for Clowney's decline to three sacks this past year, but the truth of the matter is he hasn't fared well in the one-on-one sack category over the past two seasons.
A one-on-one sack is defined as a defender beating a blocker and getting to the quarterback in the pocket within three seconds of the snap. The importance of this metric is that it illustrates the ability to generate a pass rush without any play-calling bells and whistles.
Two of Clowney's three sacks this past year were of the one-on-one variety, which is a drop-off from his 2012 total of six one-on-one sacks. But as noted in an article I wrote prior to the 2013 season, that total of six wasn't as impressive as it sounds. Quoting that article: "One [of the one-on-one sacks] occurred against Florida when the Gators got the bright idea to block Clowney with Jordan Reed. Beating Reed, a tight end whom Scouts Inc. gave a very low 4 blocking grade in its pre-draft analysis of his skills, really isn't something for Clowney to hang his hat on.
"Clowney posted another one-on-one sack in the second half of the Missouri game after the Gamecocks were up 21-3. His one-on-one sack against Kentucky came late in the fourth quarter when South Carolina was ahead 35-17. These might technically qualify as sacks that help close out a game, but they were more of the caliber of stat-padders than true impact plays."
This inability to consistently generate one-on-one sacks during competitive phases of games is part of why Clowney was shut out in the sack department in 20 of his 36 career college games. His physical skills indicate he can rush the passer better than this, but a track record of this caliber should not be overlooked.
Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State Bulldogs
Red flag: low completion percentage when under duress
According to ESPN Stats & Information, Carr completed only 30.9 percent of his passes when under duress (defined as when the quarterback is forced from the pocket, forced to alter his throwing motion, forced to move within the pocket due to pressure, having a defender clear in his line of sight, or being hit while throwing the ball).
That is the lowest duress completion percentage of any of the top quarterback prospects, but even more important is how this compares against the duress numbers posted by current NFL passers.
Last year, the leaguewide completion percentage when under duress was 41.5 percent, and only three quarterbacks had a duress completion percentage lower than Carr's collegiate total. If Carr wasn't able to hold up well against a strong pass rush against a lower level of competition, it stands to reason he might not fare well in that metric at the pro level.
Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State Buckeyes
Red flag: subpar yards-per-attempt (YPA) metrics
Roby's draft stock is being pulled in both directions, with his physical tools and potential having an upward influence and his recent legal issues having a downward influence.
The downward trend could continue if his coverage metrics are taken into account. Roby posted an 8.2 yards per attempt mark last year and had an 11.8 vertical YPA (VYPA, a measure of production on aerials traveling 11 or more yards downfield) and a 14.0 stretch vertical YPA (on passes thrown 20 or more yards).
Those numbers fall well short of Darqueze Dennard's insanely great coverage metrics (3.9 YPA, 3.4 VYPA, 3.0 SVYPA) and also did not come anywhere close to measuring up to his Ohio State teammate Doran Grant (5.7 YPA, 5.9 VYPA, 5.6 SVYPA).
To be fair, Roby's numbers were a lot better when blown coverages are factored out of the equation (6.0 YPA, 8.2 VYPA, 8.3 SVYPA), but mistake plays can occur at the NFL level just as easily as they can at the collegiate level.
Anthony Barr, LB, UCLA Bruins
Red flag: low number of total pressures
Sacks are not the only byproduct of a good pass rush, as the most effective defenders combine sacks with a high number of quarterback knockdowns.
Barr starred in the sacks column; his 10 sacks ranked tied for 12th in the nation among defenders from BCS-caliber conferences and second among BCS conference linebackers. But he did not hold his ground as well when knockdowns are accounted for. According to Stats LLC, Barr had 27 total pressures, a metric that tracks how often a player generates a sack or a quarterback knockdown. That mark placed him 26th among defenders from BCS-caliber conferences and seventh among BCS linebackers. This suggests his pass-rushing skills may not be as far ahead of his draft competitors' as the sack total might indicate.
Marqise Lee, WR, USC Trojans
Red flag: relatively low YPA when facing a cornerback or safety
According to a study I did reviewing the metrics of the top wide receivers in the 2014 NFL draft, Lee posted a 7.9 YPA when facing a cornerback or safety in direct coverage. That total ranked dead last among the eight pass-catchers in that analysis, and was more than 2 yards behind the next-lowest total in that statistic (Odell Beckham Jr., 10.0 YPA). It is also worth noting that the typical midpoint for an NFL wide receiver in this metric is generally in the 8.0 YPA range, so if Lee doesn't improve this total, he may end up being a mid- to lower-tier wideout at the next level.
Statistics tell an interesting story for a handful of highly rated prospects
Updated: April 29, 2014, 2:09 PM ET
By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
Most of the NFL draft discussion this time of year revolves around the strengths of blue-chip prospects, but just as much attention should be paid to the red flags of some of these prospects. It takes just one significant weakness for a player to go from productive selection to a pick that doesn't pan out, and some of the elite talents in this year's draft crop have this flaw, in the form of a metric red flag that suggests some level of buyer beware should be in order.
Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina Gamecocks
Red flag: low volume of one-on-one sacks
There have been a litany of reasons to account for Clowney's decline to three sacks this past year, but the truth of the matter is he hasn't fared well in the one-on-one sack category over the past two seasons.
A one-on-one sack is defined as a defender beating a blocker and getting to the quarterback in the pocket within three seconds of the snap. The importance of this metric is that it illustrates the ability to generate a pass rush without any play-calling bells and whistles.
Two of Clowney's three sacks this past year were of the one-on-one variety, which is a drop-off from his 2012 total of six one-on-one sacks. But as noted in an article I wrote prior to the 2013 season, that total of six wasn't as impressive as it sounds. Quoting that article: "One [of the one-on-one sacks] occurred against Florida when the Gators got the bright idea to block Clowney with Jordan Reed. Beating Reed, a tight end whom Scouts Inc. gave a very low 4 blocking grade in its pre-draft analysis of his skills, really isn't something for Clowney to hang his hat on.
"Clowney posted another one-on-one sack in the second half of the Missouri game after the Gamecocks were up 21-3. His one-on-one sack against Kentucky came late in the fourth quarter when South Carolina was ahead 35-17. These might technically qualify as sacks that help close out a game, but they were more of the caliber of stat-padders than true impact plays."
This inability to consistently generate one-on-one sacks during competitive phases of games is part of why Clowney was shut out in the sack department in 20 of his 36 career college games. His physical skills indicate he can rush the passer better than this, but a track record of this caliber should not be overlooked.
Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State Bulldogs
Red flag: low completion percentage when under duress
According to ESPN Stats & Information, Carr completed only 30.9 percent of his passes when under duress (defined as when the quarterback is forced from the pocket, forced to alter his throwing motion, forced to move within the pocket due to pressure, having a defender clear in his line of sight, or being hit while throwing the ball).
That is the lowest duress completion percentage of any of the top quarterback prospects, but even more important is how this compares against the duress numbers posted by current NFL passers.
Last year, the leaguewide completion percentage when under duress was 41.5 percent, and only three quarterbacks had a duress completion percentage lower than Carr's collegiate total. If Carr wasn't able to hold up well against a strong pass rush against a lower level of competition, it stands to reason he might not fare well in that metric at the pro level.
Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State Buckeyes
Red flag: subpar yards-per-attempt (YPA) metrics
Roby's draft stock is being pulled in both directions, with his physical tools and potential having an upward influence and his recent legal issues having a downward influence.
The downward trend could continue if his coverage metrics are taken into account. Roby posted an 8.2 yards per attempt mark last year and had an 11.8 vertical YPA (VYPA, a measure of production on aerials traveling 11 or more yards downfield) and a 14.0 stretch vertical YPA (on passes thrown 20 or more yards).
Those numbers fall well short of Darqueze Dennard's insanely great coverage metrics (3.9 YPA, 3.4 VYPA, 3.0 SVYPA) and also did not come anywhere close to measuring up to his Ohio State teammate Doran Grant (5.7 YPA, 5.9 VYPA, 5.6 SVYPA).
To be fair, Roby's numbers were a lot better when blown coverages are factored out of the equation (6.0 YPA, 8.2 VYPA, 8.3 SVYPA), but mistake plays can occur at the NFL level just as easily as they can at the collegiate level.
Anthony Barr, LB, UCLA Bruins
Red flag: low number of total pressures
Sacks are not the only byproduct of a good pass rush, as the most effective defenders combine sacks with a high number of quarterback knockdowns.
Barr starred in the sacks column; his 10 sacks ranked tied for 12th in the nation among defenders from BCS-caliber conferences and second among BCS conference linebackers. But he did not hold his ground as well when knockdowns are accounted for. According to Stats LLC, Barr had 27 total pressures, a metric that tracks how often a player generates a sack or a quarterback knockdown. That mark placed him 26th among defenders from BCS-caliber conferences and seventh among BCS linebackers. This suggests his pass-rushing skills may not be as far ahead of his draft competitors' as the sack total might indicate.
Marqise Lee, WR, USC Trojans
Red flag: relatively low YPA when facing a cornerback or safety
According to a study I did reviewing the metrics of the top wide receivers in the 2014 NFL draft, Lee posted a 7.9 YPA when facing a cornerback or safety in direct coverage. That total ranked dead last among the eight pass-catchers in that analysis, and was more than 2 yards behind the next-lowest total in that statistic (Odell Beckham Jr., 10.0 YPA). It is also worth noting that the typical midpoint for an NFL wide receiver in this metric is generally in the 8.0 YPA range, so if Lee doesn't improve this total, he may end up being a mid- to lower-tier wideout at the next level.