JJT/Archer: Should the Cowboys draft a QB?

[Cotton]

Odds are stacked against QBs


By Todd Archer
ESPNDallas.com

IRVING, Texas -- Tony Romo is 34 and coming off back surgery. It doesn't look like Kyle Orton wants to play football anymore with his absence from the offseason program. Brandon Weeden is 30 and viewed as a developmental quarterback.

So the Cowboys must draft a quarterback at some point in the upcoming NFL draft, right? Wrong.

But the Green Bay Packers of old used to draft a quarterback every year. They picked guys like Mark Brunell, Aaron Brooks, Matt Hasselbeck and Ty Detmer when Brett Favre was their starter. They even picked Aaron Rodgers in the first round with Favre at the top of his game.

Well, good for the Green Bay Packers.

But how many quarterbacks are developed? Since 2006, 59 quarterbacks have been drafted in Rounds 3-7 and two have become starters: Russell Wilson and Nick Foles. The odds are not in the Cowboys' favor of finding Romo's successor in the third, fourth, fifth, sixth or seventh round.

I like Aaron Murray and I've stumped for the Cowboys to pick him in the fourth round. Perhaps he develops into a starter. Perhaps he is as effective as Stephen McGee. With the way the Cowboys have picked in the fourth round lately, maybe it's better to take a quarterback than an Akwasi Owusu-Ansah or Matt Johnson orDavid Arkin.

But the odds are stacked.

With teams more apt to keep just two quarterbacks on the 53-man roster these days, the chances of developing a quarterback are even more difficult. There simply aren't enough reps in practice to get a guy ready. If you take a quarterback in the first two rounds, you have to know he can play in his first four years. So you have to play the guy right away to find out before you have to make a big financial commitment.

The Cowboys aren't at that point with Romo's contract and Jerry Jones' belief that Romo can lead this team to playoff success.

Whenever the Cowboys want to move on from Romo, that's when they'll find his successor. They'll draft a guy and play him the way the Cincinnati Bengals did with Andy Dalton, who was a second-round pick. They can do it like the Seattle Seahawks did with Russell Wilson in the third round. They can do what theWashington Redskins did with Robert Griffin III and go all-in to move to the top of the draft for a franchise quarterback.

For all of the good luck the Packers had in selecting quarterbacks, they also had their share of guys like B.J. Coleman, Ingle Martinand Craig Nall.
We don't hear much about those guys.

______________________________________________________


Depth is available to develop


By Jean-Jacques Taylor
ESPNDallas.com

IRVING, Texas -- Jerry Jones has been loath to draft quarterbacks since he bought the Dallas Cowboys in 1989.
He's drafted only five since then. And only two since 2000.

That's a streak Jones should end this week, considering the Cowboys have six picks in the seventh round.

If Jones isn't going to take a developmental quarterback in a year that he has a plethora of compensatory draft picks, then he's never going to take one.

This isn't about finding a starter, it's about Jones finding a player he doesn't have to spend $3.5 million on to be Tony Romo's backup, which is what Kyle Orton is scheduled to earn this season.

For the most part, teams spend premium draft choices to find starters. Tom Brady and Romo were the only primary NFL starting quarterbacks last season not taken in the first three rounds.

The Cowboys are in no position to use a high draft pick on a quarterback -- not even Johnny Manziel -- to sit behind Romo for several seasons. They have way too many holes for that.

We're talking about a team that could draft a defensive tackle, a defensive end, a linebacker, a safety, a cornerback or a wide receiver in the first round without getting a quizzical look from anyone.

Besides, Romo's six-year, $108 million extension begins this year. Trading him would decimate the club's salary cap, so fans should expect him to start for at least three more seasons.

Orton, at least for now, is the backup and Brandon Weeden andCaleb Hanie will compete for a third spot, if the Cowboys decide to use three roster spots on quarterbacks.

They probably won't, which means the Cowboys' best bet for a developmental player is to draft a guy they like in the seventh round who probably would've been a priority free agent after the draft.

Then they can take a long look at him in training camp and the preseason and then stash him on the practice squad for a season in hopes he shows enough potential to be the backup in 2015.

 

[UncleMilti]

I love how the new rallying cry for not drafting a QB is 3 more seasons of QB play out of Romo.

Depending on a 34 year old QB with 2 back surgeries under his belt for another 3 seasons is laughable....but what you would expect out of the GM we have.

Cant wait to see the look on PT Barnums face when Romo pops another disc in his back 12 games into the season.

 

[data]

I love how the new rallying cry for not drafting a QB is 3 more seasons of QB play out of Romo.

Remember to click your heels three times and it'll come true.

 

[Smitty]

I love how the new rallying cry for not drafting a QB is 3 more seasons of QB play out of Romo.

Depending on a 34 year old QB with 2 back surgeries under his belt for another 3 seasons is laughable....but what you would expect out of the GM we have.

Cant wait to see the look on PT Barnums face when Romo pops another disc in his back 12 games into the season.

As if three years is too long to make a young QB wait.

Newsflash.... it isn't. See Steve McNair.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

I love how the new rallying cry for not drafting a QB is 3 more seasons of QB play out of Romo.

Depending on a 34 year old QB with 2 back surgeries under his belt for another 3 seasons is laughable....but what you would expect out of the GM we have.

A QB mind you who hasn't managed to get this team anywhere in terms of the post season. Romo has an uncanny knack for keeping really bad Dallas teams afloat and keeping more talented Dallas teams from going anywhere in the playoffs.

 

[ravidubey]

You draft a QB, then you must start him in 2015, and the cap hit from ditching Romo is 20 mil in 2015.

It's a more manageable 11 mil in 2016, so I think the QB of the future is in the 2016 or 2017 draft depending on how healthy Romo is in 2014.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

the cap hit from ditching Romo is 20 mil in 2015.

Actually by cutting Romo in 2015 you would get about an 8 mil net cap savings. Considering Manziel's contract would not cost 8 mil, when you switch Manziel for Romo you would actually be creating additional cap room in total. Not to mention the following years you would have a ton of extra cap space since Romo wouldn't be eating up 27 mil of your cap space any longer.

 

[ravidubey]

Romo has an uncanny knack for keeping really bad Dallas teams afloat and keeping more talented Dallas teams from going anywhere in the playoffs.

How specifically did Romo keep the more talented 2007 and 2009 teams from succeeding in the post season?

I recall a very close game vs. New York where Patrick Crayton and Leonard Davis shat the bed on multiple key downs when in each case Romo made a big play to rally the team from a deep hole despite having his two best WR's injured. When David Tyree was catching footballs on his helmet Eli never had to deal with his RG being flagged 15 yards for hitting a prone defender.

In 2009 Romo never seemed to have a chance. The offense didn't run until the 3rd quarter and the OL was seriously porous vs. pressure. Romo did lose the ball twice on strip-sacks, but he barely had a chance to move and was sacked 6 times. It seemed the closer to the endzone Dallas got, the better pressure Minnesota got. They blanketed Miles Austin, and there was nowhere else to go. Missed chip shot FG didn't help either, and you felt Dallas left points on the field several times. I don't think Tom Brady ever faced pressure in the playoffs like Romo did in Minnesota that year. After Minnesota got ahead Dallas abandoned even trying to run and things actually got worse.

 

[ravidubey]

Actually by cutting Romo in 2015 you would get about an 8 mil net cap savings. Considering Manziel's contract would not cost 8 mil, when you switch Manziel for Romo you would actually be creating additional cap room in total. Not to mention the following years you would have a ton of extra cap space since Romo wouldn't be eating up 27 mil of your cap space any longer.

The point is 20 mil of the cap is dead, and you can't make him a June cut because 7.5 mil of that salary guarantees if he's on the roster after the 3rd league year day in March.

If Romo is still healthy you've made the pick a year early for no reason. Any other position except maybe center you can gain great benefit from immediately as they can rotate and gain reps. But at QB you must draft and commit to talent.

The once in a generation "smooth handoff" (Montana to Young, Favre to Rodgers) is rare enough that should not pursue it to the extent that you ignore your roster and cap structure.

The best to hope for is the 1 dead year between Manning and Luck.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

The point is 20 mil of the cap is dead, and you can't make him a June cut because 7.5 mil of that salary guarantees if he's on the roster after the 3rd league year day in March.

Still not sure what point you are making with this. Romo would count almost 28 mil against our cap in 2015. So cutting him would save us a lot of money against the cap. Who the hell cares how much dead cap is created when you are creating additional room to sign new guys and the replacement for Romo is already on the roster?

And if Romo is still healthy and a capable QB trade him! Even a healthy Romo last year looked skiddish and afraid. I was a big Romo supporter but I just don't think he has it anymore. He doesn't look like the same QB that he used to.

 

[Smitty]

The point is 20 mil of the cap is dead, and you can't make him a June cut because 7.5 mil of that salary guarantees if he's on the roster after the 3rd league year day in March.

If Romo is still healthy you've made the pick a year early for no reason. Any other position except maybe center you can gain great benefit from immediately as they can rotate and gain reps. But at QB you must draft and commit to talent.

The once in a generation "smooth handoff" (Montana to Young, Favre to Rodgers) is rare enough that should not pursue it to the extent that you ignore your roster and cap structure.

The best to hope for is the 1 dead year between Manning and Luck.

The "smooth handoff" rarely happens because teams are rarely in a position to take an elite successor while the current guy is still performing at a high level.

We may have that chance this year, and there is nothing to prevent us from doing so unless we listen to misguided and incorrect tropes about how it will hurt our roster and cap structure. For a year or two, it will do no such thing.

 

[jsmith6919]

The point is 20 mil of the cap is dead, and you can't make him a June cut because 7.5 mil of that salary guarantees if he's on the roster after the 3rd league year day in March.

If Romo is still healthy you've made the pick a year early for no reason. Any other position except maybe center you can gain great benefit from immediately as they can rotate and gain reps. But at QB you must draft and commit to talent.

The once in a generation "smooth handoff" (Montana to Young, Favre to Rodgers) is rare enough that should not pursue it to the extent that you ignore your roster and cap structure.

The best to hope for is the 1 dead year between Manning and Luck.

Yes we would have 20mil dead but wouldn't we also have 17 mil more room than we would have if we kept Romo with his base salary coming off the books?

 

[Cowboysrock55]

The "smooth handoff" rarely happens because teams are rarely in a position to take an elite successor while the current guy is still performing at a high level.

We may have that chance this year, and there is nothing to prevent us from doing so unless we listen to misguided and incorrect tropes about how it will hurt our roster and cap structure. For a year or two, it will do no such thing.

In no way does it hurt our cap situation. It purely can only help it. The only real question is if Manziel is that type of a QB or not.

I guess some will look at it as stealing a chance from Romo to win the superbowl by putting less pieces around him but in my opinion you could have Clowney from this draft in the first round and Romo still won't be winning a superbowl next year.

 

[Smitty]

In no way does it hurt our cap situation. It purely can only help it. The only real question is if Manziel is that type of a QB or not.

I guess some will look at it as stealing a chance from Romo to win the superbowl by putting less pieces around him but in my opinion you could have Clowney from this draft in the first round and Romo still won't be winning a superbowl next year.

Not "less pieces." One less piece. Singular.

And I agree, a first round pick does not mean the difference between Super Bowl and no Super Bowl for us this year, unless on the outside chance that it was Randy Moss Part 2 and we also landed home run defensive starters in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds.

Taking Manziel instead of an immediate contributor hurts our chances this year by exactly 1 player. And its a substantial difference to be sure.

But not enough to dissuade me from extending our open window by over a decade by selecting an elite QB. That one player we'd be missing this year can and will be made up for on future rosters down the line.

 

[UncleMilti]

Still not sure what point you are making with this. Romo would count almost 28 mil against our cap in 2015. So cutting him would save us a lot of money against the cap. Who the hell cares how much dead cap is created when you are creating additional room to sign new guys and the replacement for Romo is already on the roster?

And if Romo is still healthy and a capable QB trade him! Even a healthy Romo last year looked skiddish and afraid. I was a big Romo supporter but I just don't think he has it anymore. He doesn't look like the same QB that he used to.

I agree.

The problem you have is the new Romo contract, Jerry is in win now mode. I expect stupid draft picks, stupid decisions, and we are already hearing stupid shit outta Jones mouth like the "Hatcher said Crawford would be an All-Pro". I mean its beyond fucking retarded. What GM has EVER said something like that?

Romo had a good team, a decent defense, and a shot in 2007. That window is shut, period. He has had 2 back surgeries and has done nothing to make me believe he's suddenly going to pop up and be a playoff caliber QB. Ware is gone, and Hatcher is gone. Replaced with potential decent players, but gimped up.

This team needs to draft a QB this year, or next and start over.

 

[Clay_Allison]

How could drafting a QB hurt our cap situation when the draft pick would be making less money to be a backup (even if it is for 2 years rather than 1) than Kyle Orton makes to be a backup?

And even if Romo is the starter in 2015, we'd still have two seasons and the team option year to decide whether to keep the guy.

Sure you can say we could always draft one next year, but if Manziel or Bortles is the guy, better take him now. You don't know if 2015 is going to be a decent QB class and you don't want a year of Brandon Weeden as your starter, nor do you want to draft the next Quincy Carter out of Florida State.

 

[Smitty]

How could drafting a QB hurt our cap situation when the draft pick would be making less money to be a backup (even if it is for 2 years rather than 1) than Kyle Orton makes to be a backup?

And even if Romo is the starter in 2015, we'd still have two seasons and the team option year to decide whether to keep the guy.

Sure you can say we could always draft one next year, but if Manziel or Bortles is the guy, better take him now. You don't know if 2015 is going to be a decent QB class and you don't want a year of Brandon Weeden as your starter, nor do you want to draft the next Quincy Carter out of Florida State.

Winning argument. Shut this thing down.

 

[ravidubey]

In no way does it hurt our cap situation. It purely can only help it. The only real question is if Manziel is that type of a QB or not.

It's a question of resources spent. You are spending QB "X"'s salary plus the 20 mil in dead money for a QB who is still learning, not to mention likely dumping a QB who can still play. If you wait 1 more year, those numbers are cut in half-- that's huge. I don't think Bortles, Bridgewater, or Manziel are anything close to what Andrew Luck was to justify wasting an extra 10 mil.

In the 80's, Steve Young had no choice because there was no free agency and he sat 4 seasons before they forced Joe Montana out. Aaron Rodgers was drafted when Favre was 35 and he sat three seasons before they forced Favre out.

Under the new CBA things have changed and you can't wait that long.

If Romo sucks or is hurt that's one thing, but jump the gun and you end up with a Ryan Mallett situation. The Pats are stuck now having to trade the guy because they really know nothing about him and given they spent a 3rd rounder it's hard to force him into a lineup behind a first ballot HOFer.

If Dallas uses a 1st round pick they must fast track him to start the following year.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

It's a question of resources spent. You are spending QB "X"'s salary plus the 20 mil in dead money for a QB who is still learning, not to mention likely dumping a QB who can still play. If you wait 1 more year, those numbers are cut in half-- that's huge. I don't think Bortles, Bridgewater, or Manziel are anything close to what Andrew Luck was to justify wasting an extra 10 mil.

I don't think you understand the cap or the economics of a salary cap. You're either paying 28 mil plus the cost of backups in 2015 or you're taking a cap hit of far less then that if you cut/trade Romo and have Manziel start. Then in 2016 all of that 20 mil in dead cap space goes away. What you are proposing is far more harmful to our cap. Which one could justify if Romo's play is that much better then say Manziel.

No one is saying we have to get a QB this year. However if the right one is available there is absolutely no reason to pass on him either. You can't just assume that the right QB will be available and in next years draft. Hell some drafts don't even have a good QB in them at all.

 

[Smitty]

I don't think you understand the cap or the economics of a salary cap. You're either paying 28 mil plus the cost of backups in 2015 or you're taking a cap hit of far less then that if you cut/trade Romo and have Manziel start. Then in 2016 all of that 20 mil in dead cap space goes away. What you are proposing is far more harmful to our cap. Which one could justify if Romo's play is that much better then say Manziel.

No one is saying we have to get a QB this year. However if the right one is available there is absolutely no reason to pass on him either. You can't just assume that the right QB will be available and in next years draft. Hell some drafts don't even have a good QB in them at all.

Right. No one knows if next year we'll be in a position to get one.

This year, we might have any one of three who could all be classically decent.