Cowboys Pregame Three Thoughts: Week 9
Dallas enters November with a trip to Atlanta and faces a diverse offensive operation.
Bob Sturm
Nov 02, 2024
We had a theory about two months back that the impossible part of the schedule was early and if the Cowboys could survive the first seven games – maybe a nice 4-3 record, but 5-2 would be preferred – then they could hit the gas starting in November because the next seven games looked very doable.
Little did we know that by November, there would be very few games on the schedule that look like something this Dallas team can easily conquer.
They are 3-4, so we should keep in mind that games and seasons can swing in the opposite direction without warning, but I do think that many Cowboys fans are already starting to wonder what sort of draft picks they can get if they go on a losing skid that lasts through much of the remainder of the 2024 campaign.
Here is the next seven.
I admit that two months ago, this looked like 5-2 and now it sort of looks like 2-5.
I suppose that is what happens when you find yourself bruised and beaten, demoralized by having been dominated four times in the first two months. Now, you go to Atlanta to take on a team that is looking down at you as a team that they have a lot of advantages to exploit.
Teams looking forward to playing you is not a good sign that you are terribly intimidating these days. The Cowboys look like the type of team you might invite for Homecoming.
Atlanta has struggled at home but they have not struggled putting weapons and production together. This will really be another rough spot for Mike Zimmer’s guys.
I think it is about time to offer the “must win” label to this matchup. I cannot imagine dropping to 3-5 heading into Eagles and Texans in back-to-back home games would improve the vibes at all. This team needs a win in the very worse way.
And these are my Cowboys Pre-Game Three Thoughts:
– While this may be considered a broken record, I don’t see how the Cowboys can possibly become an offense of some quality without expanding the weapons department beyond just CeeDee Lamb. This would be a fine week to see about doing that if they have any hope of prolonging 2024’s chances.
When Dallas has the ball:
Here is some cold, hard truths about the Cowboys offensive skill players as we move into November.
- The Cowboys best rusher, Rico Dowdle, has the 41st most yards in the NFL. For perspective, Jalen Hurts is 39th and Anthony Richardson is 42nd. Neither are running backs and Richardson has been pulled from his lineup.
- The Cowboys best receivers without considering CeeDee Lamb are current ranked 59th (Jalen Tolbert), 79th (Jake Ferguson), 147th (KaVontae Turpin), 159th (Rico Dowdle), and 189th (Brandin Cooks).
- Lamb has been quite prolific and is 4th in the league in yards. However, he is being defended in such a way as to limit his damage. If you were a DC against Dallas, you would want to limit his damage to the 1st half of games and to the early downs.
Here are Lamb’s splits for 1st half vs 2nd half in 2024:
And here are his splits by down:
In both cases, teams do not seem to concern themselves with the Cowboys best (and only) threat until the Cowboys need him most. And as you can see, when they really focus on dealing with Lamb, they can limit him to less than one catch per game on 3rd down and less than two catches per game in the 2nd halves of games.
Then, it seems, they can take Lamb away and make someone else try to beat them. Jalen Tolbert made a huge 4th Quarter/4th down play in Pittsburgh, but there is no question that teams don’t fear any other player who steps on the field.
So, how? How do you get more involved?
I know you are all saying to get better players, but this might be where we revisit the idea that you are on a boat traveling from ocean to ocean. When you realize you forgot something back at your port, you cannot do much about it out at sea. There are no convenience stores in the middle of the ocean and the next time you can re-supply your needs, it is too late because the journey is over. In other words, the players you have right now are the players you have. Maybe Brandin Cooks joins you, but he is all you have.
But, for me, Jake Ferguson has been the 18th best in receiving yards and the 23rd best fantasy tight end (not that I am referencing fantasy points as a fair measure, but we have to use something). What is going on here? Why does Jake Ferguson suddenly look like a player you can easily upgrade from. Its even worse on PFF receiving grades where Ferguson ranks 56th amongst tight ends and his teammate Luke Schoonmaker is 54th.
Yikes. Did we over-rate him or is something going on? Is he hurt? Why is Ferguson looking like a rather ordinary talent here in 2024?
Atlanta’s defense is pretty mid-level throughout. They have lots of yellow on their chart to signify “middle third of the NFL” from about 12th to 22nd in rankings.
They don’t rush the passer well at all and they don’t get off the field on 3rd downs. These both should help the Cowboys get the offense going, but we still wonder the path this offense will try to take offensively. The offensive game plans have been trying to control/protect the ball and establish a ground game that is just not there. We simply cannot think of any moment this season where it was available, but they remain stubborn in the belief that this is the way.
The feature Falcons defender is the excellent Jessie Bates. He is in his 2nd year with the Falcons after five seasons in Cincinnati and I would argue the Bengals defense hasn’t been good since he left and the Falcons are delighted that they dropped 4/$64m to bring him in 2023 free agency.
He is a deep safety who charges downhill in run support, but his real value is sorting through things in the secondary and finding the ball. Free agency is not the way to build a team, but in seeing the transformative powers of Bates joining the Falcons defense and this year seeing Xavier McKinney change the Green Bay defense, maybe a premium safety is the type to really change a group with one signing.
His instincts are incredibly good and given the safety issues of the Cowboys, you could see how it starts to make you think about improvements in this upcoming offseason.
Obviously, avoiding turnovers is huge. Playing with lead would be massive. But, for me, whether it is Ferguson, Tolbert, or a mystery guest, they must prove they can do anything consistently that isn’t based on CeeDee Lamb.
Ok, let’s flip the field to see where the game really could get interesting.
When The Falcons have the ball:
– The Cowboys defense’s has been very poor against diverse offenses. They may need to gamble more and try something new because the current ideas aren’t working out. Continuing to play the same way will continue to yield the same results.
We have seen enough of a sample size to see the patterns. They have played three teams that had one dimensional offenses and did fine. They played four teams that have had versatile offenses and been destroyed. Atlanta is more of the latter than the former.
Dallas had the defense that created nearly two takeaways every game for 3 straight years. That defense played a lot of man coverage and was able to generate pass rushing with speed, disguise, and chaos around the QB.
The other one – and the new ideas of Mike Zimmer – was to not play as risky football. They wanted to play sound zone defenses and perhaps trade off losing turnovers with playing as a pack that gets to the ball and then wins on 3rd down. They wanted to be bigger and stronger and play defense the old-fashioned way. It was a good theory, at least, but the early returns were poor and then the injuries came.
Unfortunately, they have done neither. They neither generate big plays as takeaways and splash plays are way down. But, they also don’t play fundamentally sound defense, either. Their defense got bigger, but still get bullied with routine. They have subtracted the positives without eliminating the negatives of Dan Quinn’s defense. They load the box to stop the run and still do not stop it.
And now they play another team with plenty of weapons on the ground and through the air and very much have a competent QB.
Any offense in today’s NFL needs competent QB play. These two teams enjoy it and the QB Dak Prescott most resembles in his career is probably Kirk Cousins. Cousins is excellent, but not elite. It is 2nd-tier QB stuff and where many teams would dream to live. That is why Atlanta rolled out all the stops to get him, despite his age and his healing Achilles tendon. And that is why they look like a different team with him.
Yet, Dallas has been scary opponent for him in Minnesota, but that was because the pass rush made him a much lesser version of himself. Like so many QBs, he struggles when his eyes drop to deal with the rush and he is the happiest man in the world that Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence will not be in uniform.
Instead, Cousins should have all day against a Dallas defense that doesn’t really get sacks or takeaways this season. They are 10th-worst in sacks and 5th-worst in takeaways.
And that means they play from behind and when you play from behind you face the runs all day. So, prepare for Texas Longhorn great Bijan Robinson who is playing some excellent football this year.
As we learned when he was at Texas, Bijan is a clear and present danger because not only is he an elite runner of the ball, but he is so dangerous as a receiver, too. And Cousins clearly feeds him the ball in space. That sort of stress will put Eric Kendricks back in center of the bullseye again.
Now, we get word that DaRon Bland is out and Trevon Diggs is in bad shape. Caelen Carson is back and Jourdan Lewis. I suppose Andrew Booth would be the other at corner or Israel Mukuamu. They are dangerously thin if Diggs can’t go.
Given that we know how the Falcons have skill position threats all over the field that are scary, this seems to suggest to us that there are significant issues to consider. I just don’t see how the Falcons will struggle offensively on Sunday.
–Finally, can we ask the question about who are the guys we would consider the heart and soul of this team? Who are the leaders who are holding this room accountable? Who are the guys who want to stay and fight for the remainder of 2024? Does this team have the ability to answer a character check the right way?
This is something I am looking at carefully for 2025. Do they have leaders on this roster who can demand accountability? This is the NFL and either you have a group of internal leaders as players or you are in a bit of trouble when you tell them their coaching staff is all about to be shoved out the door.
I know this is a departure from a game preview, but I see a real lack of character on this roster right now. There are some exceptions, but for the most part, I see many individuals that are wearing the uniform. What I don’t see is a group that will fight hard for each-other and for the common cause.
I remember in 2003 when Bill Parcells came to town, he brought “his guys” along. Not just on his coaching staff, but also his players. You may remember Dan Campbell, Richie Anderson, Terry Glenn, and Ryan Young were all guys who had played for Parcells or his assistants elsewhere and then brought in and signed when he was hired. They were players who would assist in messaging of what was expected and it served as a way to teach new things as well as point the authority spotlight to the coach (not the owner or his family).
Most coaches don’t get that chance to bring guys with them. We should hope that whoever is in charge of this operation in 2025 will truly be in charge enough to bring in culture changers.
As we sit here entering November, I fear the challenge to save this season will be dependent on the internal culture on the roster. Adversity doesn’t build character, it reveals character. That should concern us all, because I am not sure who is going to fight for this big cause.
Individual futures and agendas may be served when things go south because they know the owner put his entire coaching staff on expiring deals. They might all be gone next year and that means many of the players might be gone, too. So, when I look at this schedule situation and try to read the ominous clouds, it becomes worrisome that the required resolve to save this season might come apart at the seams badly here as we go.
In other words, the only thing that usually gets you through situations like this is a strong team culture and I don’t really detect one this season. If I am right, then this should be a significant objective of the 2025 season.
Sunday may come down to who wants it more. Does this team we follow look like a squad that wants it more right now? I have my doubts.