dpf1123
DCC 4Life
- Joined
- Apr 8, 2013
- Messages
- 2,173
DQ Report, Week 4 - The Big Play Defense
Can those big plays be generated in San Francisco against a smarter QB?
BOB STURM
OCT 4, 2023
There is no way to know how this season will ultimately end as we sit here on Oct. 4.
The Dallas Cowboys have a wide range of possible outcomes that will surely continue to evolve with each day. But, I think we can comfortably say this; whatever the top-end of those possibilities may be, we think the defense will be taking them there.
The offense is good and can be very good. The defense has a rare chance to be great.
We showed you yesterday how the offense ranks in the NFL after four games, so let’s now do that for the defense in our “Big 10” stats (we also added Defensive TDs for fun).
Look at all of the green! 1st in opponents points, second in yards, second in passing yards, fourth in third downs, fourth in red zones, seventh in opposing plays allowed, second in sacks per attempt, second in points per drive, second in takeaways, and first in defensive scores. Wow!
I promise if it looks this green in a few months, there is a great chance that this team is going to need you to clear your January calendar because they would like to use it.
We talked on Monday about the two paths of a defensive design. Let’s elaborate:
But once in a while, you find a defense good enough that they can do both. The 1985 Bears, the 2000 Ravens, the 2002 Buccaneers, and the legendary defenses could limit everything positive you could generate and still take your ball and score themselves. This requires some pretty special personnel and coaching and it remains to be seen as the schedule grows significantly more difficult now if this Dallas defense has that sort of historic quality.
But, so far, so impressive!
Let’s go back to Monday’s piece for this passage:
But, it fits because these are real benchmarks teams aim for. Over the last decade, the NFL averages for points in a game is roughly 23 points per game. For yards it is just under 350 yards per game. And takeaways? About 1.25 per game is league average.
So, our benchmarks of under 20 points, under 300 yards, and 3 takeaways is extremely difficult. But, the fact that Dallas has three in their first four games is pretty crazy.
Sunday, they did it again, as the Patriots scored three points on 253 yards and turned it over three times. Just like in Weeks 1 and 2, they allowed virtually nothing.
To put it in perspective, here is a chart I made this morning for you that covers 25 years of Cowboys defenses and these are the FULL SEASON numbers for each of those defenses for this type of performance:
A few quick observations here: First, the 2023 Cowboys have already equaled anything since Bill Parcells was here from 2003-06 and made every decision based on making his defense a weapon. In his four years, they hit this benchmark 11 times. To compare, this is Dan Quinn’s fourth such game in his third season. Next, it is interesting that 2017 and 2019 had multiple such games. Both of those teams missed the playoffs as you probably recall. And then notice all of the years where they never had even one such game. Finally, it probably won’t take a genius to see how Tony Romo’s era never coincided with one of these heavyweight defenses after his 2006 season. That Seattle playoff game still smarts.
Its highly possible they don’t get another one this year. These are very hard to attain and with each game passing, the potential for further attrition to the top-end talent or the depth will take a toll. Also, offenses like San Francisco, Philadelphia (twice), Buffalo, Miami, and yes, Detroit are all coming up. There will be plenty of tests that ramp up the degrees of difficulty, but this defense is a pleasure to witness right now.
I promise we will color coat these starting next week, but for now, imagine this is all in green ink because this is a ridiculous chart where it tells us too things. The Cowboys defense is significantly better than the Patriots offense at nearly every spot and the Patriots offense appears to be pretty bad right now. I think you need both to be true to produce something like this.
MAC JONES NEXT GEN THROW CHART
If I am a Patriots fan, it is time to try some Bailey Zappe. Jones looks a shell of himself with his decision making and disregard for ball protection. I certainly don’t watch him week to week, but in his early time in New England, you at least saw a Brock Purdy intelligence with the football that developed trust. I am not sure I have ever seen such a reckless display of QB nonsense as that 5-minute stretch in the second quarter of this game – that was still within reach until he self-detonated with three different cross field throws. That alone would be enough for me to pull the plug on his day if I was his coach. Can’t win like that.
SPLASH PLAYS - WEEK 4
My friends at TruMedia designed this self-tabulating splash play counter, but I do have to manually add two stats to it. Defensive TD’s are easy and then I have to go through the games to pull all of the holding penalties drawn. If you draw a flag for being held, you probably ended a drive and deserve a splash, in my estimation. And since it is my statistic, I guess my estimation matters quite a bit. Regardless, a big day for DaRon Bland and both linebackers with multiple plays.
Here is the season total through four games with a familiar name up top:
Ok, let’s dive into the film. Unlike last week, most of this should be pretty enjoyable.
FILM STUDY:
1Q - 8:49 - 3rd and 6 - NE 43 - M.Jones pass deep left to D.Douglas ran ob for 42 yards
This early 3rd down for the Patriots turned into the one big coverage bust in the game and it was on the Patriots first drive (and only red zone trip). It is 3rd and 6 so the Cowboys are in a Cover 3. Double-Mug in the A-Gaps by the Cowboys LVE and Kearse, but they are going to get out of there and cover. Dorance Armstrong gets the pressure and Mac Jones rolls to his left. When this happens, Kearse can either drop on the over-route (assuming he sees it) or activate to the QB. He is sort of in between here and Douglas is wide open on this Cover 3 beater. That over route from the right side slot to the left deep corner is why Cover 3 has been endangered. You combine it with a dig from the left that clears out DaRon Bland and you often have a guy in acres of space if the QB has time. This one got them early. Then Douglas hits a spin against Donovan Wilson that I am sure “Dono” is hearing about from his buddies.
1Q - 6:49 - 3rd and 1 - DAL 6 - M.Jones pass incomplete short left to M.Gesicki
Three plays later, the Patriots have 13 personnel and a short yardage situation. They just need one yard for a fresh set of downs, but they are calling this play like they don’t think they can get one yard (more on that below). Instead, they try that same basic Cover 3 concept of dragging the corner from Mac Jones’ left out of that area and crossing the safeties face with their giant 6’7 tight end Mike Gesicki. The idea is that you just put it up there and he will get it against small DBs. Jones has the throw with Micah running at him and just misses it. Although my dad would say that Gesicki got his hands on it, so he should bring it in. Either way, they settle for a field goal for the only points of their day on their very first drive.
Yikes.
2Q - 13:49 - 4th and 1 - DAL 41 - M.Jones up the middle to DAL 41 for no gain (D.Clark; L.Vander Esch).
This is where New England’s day started getting away. It is the fourth down “Brotherly Shove” play that the Eagles have made famous. Everyone in the league is now finding that it seems so easy when Jalen Hurts does it, but it really is failing at a growing rate around the league. I mean, look at this picture below. Where is Mac Jones going to go when you have three of your biggest DT’s shoulder to shoulder?
Why are the Eagles so good at it? Probably because they have run it 50 times. These other teams don’t practice it because they know it is dangerous and they don’t want to get their guys hurt. But, if you don’t practice it, guess what will happen? You will look like you have no idea what you are doing. Just hilarious stuff all around.
2Q - 11:17 - 2nd and 12 - NE 8 - M.Jones sacked at NE 6 for -2 yards (D.Fowler). FUMBLES (D.Fowler) [D.Fowler], RECOVERED by DAL-L.Vander Esch at NE 11. L.Vander Esch for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dallas is in Cover 3 again and you can see how they run it. Kearse and Wilson both matchup with the tight ends here because New England is showing run in 13 personnel. You have them both carry the tight ends if they go vertical in what will look like man coverage. But, everyone else is in a Cover 3 and dime personnel. Now, four-man rush and this is your backup rush unit with Parsons and Lawrence on the bench.
This is just a third-down incomplete pass in the box score, but it definitely foreshadows what Jones is about to do. Maybe he makes these throws all the time and this one is borderline, but it shows the nerve. He has all day to hit this crosser but he keeps turning it down because it looks like gaining 6 is unlikely because Bland is on him. But, Armstrong and Lawrence are closing in fast so he finally decides that 1-Parker is his best bet. The trouble is, now it is too late. The angle now brings Bland back into the play if the throw doesn’t lead Parker enough. He can’t step into it so his flick throw has nothing on it and this was a Pick 6 waiting to happen. The QB got very lucky. But, he didn’t learn from it.
2Q - 3:41 - 2nd and 16 - NE 19 - M.Jones pass short left to K.Bourne to NE 35 for 16 yards (D.Bland).
I’m sorry, but this is ridiculous. This is, as JT O’Sullivan would say, High School Harry stuff right here. First, the Cowboys have a 3-man rush and are dropping 8 so there is not going to be much open. If you pause it when he is looking left, you will see 88-Gesicki pretty wide open on the hash marks, though. Let me show you here:
He may not see it, but for him instead to throw all the way from the numbers on the right to outside the numbers on the left is the biggest no-no in QB school history. He sees Bourne open over there and actually gets away with it for a 16 yard gain. Never ever even consider this, kids. It worked, but the next play is connected, in my opinion.
2Q - 1:07 - 2nd and 10 - DAL 48 - M.Jones pass short left intended for K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by D.Bland at DAL 46. D.Bland for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Same drive, moments later, he has tested Bland twice. The third time will end poorly for young Mr Jones. Save Quarters coverage as the Parker crosser, but this time, Bland is ready and Jones hesitates. In this league if you hesitate, the defensive backs are too good. If you throw across the center line of the field too many times, the defensive backs are too good. DaRon Bland is too good. This Pick 6 was building in the 2nd Quarter and people who drive like maniacs eventually will crash.
One more.
3Q - 11:49 - 4th and 2 - DAL 40 - M.Jones pass short right intended for J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by D.Bland at DAL 38. D.Bland to DAL 48 for 10 yards (J.Smith-Schuster).
This feels like a predetermined throw from the time Mac Jones gets the call from the sideline. Its 4th-and-2. You know that on high-leverage 3rd and 4th downs, you are almost always going to see man coverage in this league. The Patriots have a bunch right so they can rub off a defender and get an easy conversion. The most common usage of the bunch is to use the two outside receivers to run interference so that the No. 3 guy (closest to the QB) can run behind them and to the sticks on the sideline. Dallas knows this, so Bland is over-playing this exact concept and the Patriots literally run right into it. If the Patriots run it faster, it becomes difficult to stop no matter the coverage (Romo and Cole Beasley, Rodgers and Davante Adams), but this is not happening fast. This is telegraphed and Bland is going for the undercut again. A veteran QB gets off this read quickly but a young one has already decided where the ball was going on Saturday night. Nice play by Bland but just brutal QB play in this game. I would be out on Mac Jones on this game alone. He is taking you out of games by these reckless decisions.
We will see the opposite of that in San Francisco. You know I was pessimistic about Brock Purdy (and still don’t think I would pay him) but he has a very high QB IQ and that is why he is there and Trey Lance is here. Purdy’s biggest wins in the playoff game against Dallas is he never made a crucial mistake. Can the Cowboys get three takeaways on Sunday? Doubtful. But, they better get more than the zero they caused in January.
Dallas’ defense created zero takeaways and only two sacks (both in the first 10 minutes of the game). With the game on the line and a 9-9 tie, the 49ers got the ball with 5:58 to go in the 3rd Quarter. They put together a 10-play, 91-yard drive for a touchdown and then a 13-play, 64-yard drive for a field goal as the Cowboys defense ran out of gas and could never generate the takeaway or the stop they needed. Yes, Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott were the ones to be blamed, but the Cowboys defense believes it is a championship defense. We will write more about this in our pregame piece, but you can see where I am leaning. It is time to go show that you can be that “Big Play Defense” on the road against a heavyweight like this one.
Can those big plays be generated in San Francisco against a smarter QB?
BOB STURM
OCT 4, 2023
There is no way to know how this season will ultimately end as we sit here on Oct. 4.
The Dallas Cowboys have a wide range of possible outcomes that will surely continue to evolve with each day. But, I think we can comfortably say this; whatever the top-end of those possibilities may be, we think the defense will be taking them there.
The offense is good and can be very good. The defense has a rare chance to be great.
We showed you yesterday how the offense ranks in the NFL after four games, so let’s now do that for the defense in our “Big 10” stats (we also added Defensive TDs for fun).
Look at all of the green! 1st in opponents points, second in yards, second in passing yards, fourth in third downs, fourth in red zones, seventh in opposing plays allowed, second in sacks per attempt, second in points per drive, second in takeaways, and first in defensive scores. Wow!
I promise if it looks this green in a few months, there is a great chance that this team is going to need you to clear your January calendar because they would like to use it.
We talked on Monday about the two paths of a defensive design. Let’s elaborate:
- Big play defense - This defense is trying to force you into a bad mistake. They want takeaways and to bring pain and intimidation. Look for a high blitz rate, lots of press-man coverage and players who are attempting to rattle you into a bad decision that will ultimately win the game for them. They don’t mind giving up a few big plays because they know they are not conservative investors. They are trying to hit it big.
- Bend but don’t break defense - This defense is completely different. You never blitz and you hate to play man coverage because you want to play as a group of eleven who are definitely wanting to tackle and cover in packs. Fly to the ball but in a way that is smart and conservative. They will want to eliminate big plays against so they all play their position intelligently. Don’t expose a weakness and expect they can outlast you by limiting damage. Lots of zones, deep safeties, and good tackling. They may not force turnovers much, but you will know you were in a dogfight to score.
But once in a while, you find a defense good enough that they can do both. The 1985 Bears, the 2000 Ravens, the 2002 Buccaneers, and the legendary defenses could limit everything positive you could generate and still take your ball and score themselves. This requires some pretty special personnel and coaching and it remains to be seen as the schedule grows significantly more difficult now if this Dallas defense has that sort of historic quality.
But, so far, so impressive!
Let’s go back to Monday’s piece for this passage:
Ok, did I just make up the term defensive domination game? Yes. Yes, I did.
But, it fits because these are real benchmarks teams aim for. Over the last decade, the NFL averages for points in a game is roughly 23 points per game. For yards it is just under 350 yards per game. And takeaways? About 1.25 per game is league average.
So, our benchmarks of under 20 points, under 300 yards, and 3 takeaways is extremely difficult. But, the fact that Dallas has three in their first four games is pretty crazy.
Sunday, they did it again, as the Patriots scored three points on 253 yards and turned it over three times. Just like in Weeks 1 and 2, they allowed virtually nothing.
To put it in perspective, here is a chart I made this morning for you that covers 25 years of Cowboys defenses and these are the FULL SEASON numbers for each of those defenses for this type of performance:
A few quick observations here: First, the 2023 Cowboys have already equaled anything since Bill Parcells was here from 2003-06 and made every decision based on making his defense a weapon. In his four years, they hit this benchmark 11 times. To compare, this is Dan Quinn’s fourth such game in his third season. Next, it is interesting that 2017 and 2019 had multiple such games. Both of those teams missed the playoffs as you probably recall. And then notice all of the years where they never had even one such game. Finally, it probably won’t take a genius to see how Tony Romo’s era never coincided with one of these heavyweight defenses after his 2006 season. That Seattle playoff game still smarts.
Its highly possible they don’t get another one this year. These are very hard to attain and with each game passing, the potential for further attrition to the top-end talent or the depth will take a toll. Also, offenses like San Francisco, Philadelphia (twice), Buffalo, Miami, and yes, Detroit are all coming up. There will be plenty of tests that ramp up the degrees of difficulty, but this defense is a pleasure to witness right now.
I promise we will color coat these starting next week, but for now, imagine this is all in green ink because this is a ridiculous chart where it tells us too things. The Cowboys defense is significantly better than the Patriots offense at nearly every spot and the Patriots offense appears to be pretty bad right now. I think you need both to be true to produce something like this.
MAC JONES NEXT GEN THROW CHART
If I am a Patriots fan, it is time to try some Bailey Zappe. Jones looks a shell of himself with his decision making and disregard for ball protection. I certainly don’t watch him week to week, but in his early time in New England, you at least saw a Brock Purdy intelligence with the football that developed trust. I am not sure I have ever seen such a reckless display of QB nonsense as that 5-minute stretch in the second quarter of this game – that was still within reach until he self-detonated with three different cross field throws. That alone would be enough for me to pull the plug on his day if I was his coach. Can’t win like that.
SPLASH PLAYS - WEEK 4
My friends at TruMedia designed this self-tabulating splash play counter, but I do have to manually add two stats to it. Defensive TD’s are easy and then I have to go through the games to pull all of the holding penalties drawn. If you draw a flag for being held, you probably ended a drive and deserve a splash, in my estimation. And since it is my statistic, I guess my estimation matters quite a bit. Regardless, a big day for DaRon Bland and both linebackers with multiple plays.
Here is the season total through four games with a familiar name up top:
Ok, let’s dive into the film. Unlike last week, most of this should be pretty enjoyable.
FILM STUDY:
1Q - 8:49 - 3rd and 6 - NE 43 - M.Jones pass deep left to D.Douglas ran ob for 42 yards
This early 3rd down for the Patriots turned into the one big coverage bust in the game and it was on the Patriots first drive (and only red zone trip). It is 3rd and 6 so the Cowboys are in a Cover 3. Double-Mug in the A-Gaps by the Cowboys LVE and Kearse, but they are going to get out of there and cover. Dorance Armstrong gets the pressure and Mac Jones rolls to his left. When this happens, Kearse can either drop on the over-route (assuming he sees it) or activate to the QB. He is sort of in between here and Douglas is wide open on this Cover 3 beater. That over route from the right side slot to the left deep corner is why Cover 3 has been endangered. You combine it with a dig from the left that clears out DaRon Bland and you often have a guy in acres of space if the QB has time. This one got them early. Then Douglas hits a spin against Donovan Wilson that I am sure “Dono” is hearing about from his buddies.
1Q - 6:49 - 3rd and 1 - DAL 6 - M.Jones pass incomplete short left to M.Gesicki
Three plays later, the Patriots have 13 personnel and a short yardage situation. They just need one yard for a fresh set of downs, but they are calling this play like they don’t think they can get one yard (more on that below). Instead, they try that same basic Cover 3 concept of dragging the corner from Mac Jones’ left out of that area and crossing the safeties face with their giant 6’7 tight end Mike Gesicki. The idea is that you just put it up there and he will get it against small DBs. Jones has the throw with Micah running at him and just misses it. Although my dad would say that Gesicki got his hands on it, so he should bring it in. Either way, they settle for a field goal for the only points of their day on their very first drive.
Yikes.
2Q - 13:49 - 4th and 1 - DAL 41 - M.Jones up the middle to DAL 41 for no gain (D.Clark; L.Vander Esch).
This is where New England’s day started getting away. It is the fourth down “Brotherly Shove” play that the Eagles have made famous. Everyone in the league is now finding that it seems so easy when Jalen Hurts does it, but it really is failing at a growing rate around the league. I mean, look at this picture below. Where is Mac Jones going to go when you have three of your biggest DT’s shoulder to shoulder?
Why are the Eagles so good at it? Probably because they have run it 50 times. These other teams don’t practice it because they know it is dangerous and they don’t want to get their guys hurt. But, if you don’t practice it, guess what will happen? You will look like you have no idea what you are doing. Just hilarious stuff all around.
2Q - 11:17 - 2nd and 12 - NE 8 - M.Jones sacked at NE 6 for -2 yards (D.Fowler). FUMBLES (D.Fowler) [D.Fowler], RECOVERED by DAL-L.Vander Esch at NE 11. L.Vander Esch for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dallas is in Cover 3 again and you can see how they run it. Kearse and Wilson both matchup with the tight ends here because New England is showing run in 13 personnel. You have them both carry the tight ends if they go vertical in what will look like man coverage. But, everyone else is in a Cover 3 and dime personnel. Now, four-man rush and this is your backup rush unit with Parsons and Lawrence on the bench.
2Q - 9:48 - 3rd and 6 - NE 29 - M.Jones pass incomplete short right to D.Parker (D.Bland).
This is just a third-down incomplete pass in the box score, but it definitely foreshadows what Jones is about to do. Maybe he makes these throws all the time and this one is borderline, but it shows the nerve. He has all day to hit this crosser but he keeps turning it down because it looks like gaining 6 is unlikely because Bland is on him. But, Armstrong and Lawrence are closing in fast so he finally decides that 1-Parker is his best bet. The trouble is, now it is too late. The angle now brings Bland back into the play if the throw doesn’t lead Parker enough. He can’t step into it so his flick throw has nothing on it and this was a Pick 6 waiting to happen. The QB got very lucky. But, he didn’t learn from it.
2Q - 3:41 - 2nd and 16 - NE 19 - M.Jones pass short left to K.Bourne to NE 35 for 16 yards (D.Bland).
I’m sorry, but this is ridiculous. This is, as JT O’Sullivan would say, High School Harry stuff right here. First, the Cowboys have a 3-man rush and are dropping 8 so there is not going to be much open. If you pause it when he is looking left, you will see 88-Gesicki pretty wide open on the hash marks, though. Let me show you here:
He may not see it, but for him instead to throw all the way from the numbers on the right to outside the numbers on the left is the biggest no-no in QB school history. He sees Bourne open over there and actually gets away with it for a 16 yard gain. Never ever even consider this, kids. It worked, but the next play is connected, in my opinion.
2Q - 1:07 - 2nd and 10 - DAL 48 - M.Jones pass short left intended for K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by D.Bland at DAL 46. D.Bland for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Same drive, moments later, he has tested Bland twice. The third time will end poorly for young Mr Jones. Save Quarters coverage as the Parker crosser, but this time, Bland is ready and Jones hesitates. In this league if you hesitate, the defensive backs are too good. If you throw across the center line of the field too many times, the defensive backs are too good. DaRon Bland is too good. This Pick 6 was building in the 2nd Quarter and people who drive like maniacs eventually will crash.
One more.
3Q - 11:49 - 4th and 2 - DAL 40 - M.Jones pass short right intended for J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by D.Bland at DAL 38. D.Bland to DAL 48 for 10 yards (J.Smith-Schuster).
This feels like a predetermined throw from the time Mac Jones gets the call from the sideline. Its 4th-and-2. You know that on high-leverage 3rd and 4th downs, you are almost always going to see man coverage in this league. The Patriots have a bunch right so they can rub off a defender and get an easy conversion. The most common usage of the bunch is to use the two outside receivers to run interference so that the No. 3 guy (closest to the QB) can run behind them and to the sticks on the sideline. Dallas knows this, so Bland is over-playing this exact concept and the Patriots literally run right into it. If the Patriots run it faster, it becomes difficult to stop no matter the coverage (Romo and Cole Beasley, Rodgers and Davante Adams), but this is not happening fast. This is telegraphed and Bland is going for the undercut again. A veteran QB gets off this read quickly but a young one has already decided where the ball was going on Saturday night. Nice play by Bland but just brutal QB play in this game. I would be out on Mac Jones on this game alone. He is taking you out of games by these reckless decisions.
We will see the opposite of that in San Francisco. You know I was pessimistic about Brock Purdy (and still don’t think I would pay him) but he has a very high QB IQ and that is why he is there and Trey Lance is here. Purdy’s biggest wins in the playoff game against Dallas is he never made a crucial mistake. Can the Cowboys get three takeaways on Sunday? Doubtful. But, they better get more than the zero they caused in January.
Dallas’ defense created zero takeaways and only two sacks (both in the first 10 minutes of the game). With the game on the line and a 9-9 tie, the 49ers got the ball with 5:58 to go in the 3rd Quarter. They put together a 10-play, 91-yard drive for a touchdown and then a 13-play, 64-yard drive for a field goal as the Cowboys defense ran out of gas and could never generate the takeaway or the stop they needed. Yes, Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott were the ones to be blamed, but the Cowboys defense believes it is a championship defense. We will write more about this in our pregame piece, but you can see where I am leaning. It is time to go show that you can be that “Big Play Defense” on the road against a heavyweight like this one.