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Decoding McCarthy, Week 6 - Signs of life just in time.
Fourth Quarter Dak performance saves game, but scheme is still looking for solutions
BOB STURM
OCT 18, 2023
Much of this season has been “off” for the offense and while patience is required in any build, there isn’t much to be found because the league isn’t waiting for you to sort issues.
So, on Monday, the Cowboys won a hard fought game that they should be proud about figuring out. Many teams in this league lose that game, so the desperation of this Dallas team – and in particular, its QB – pulled one out of the fire just in case.
That is the very essence of this sport. There are days where things are easy and many more days where things are hard. You better be able to win your share of those ugly ones where both teams are playing each-other to a draw and whoever can make that one extra play can leave with best deodorant in sports, a win.
We know the margins are so small, but the ramifications are huge. Some games, you hope your franchise QB can just “figure it out” and win the ugly one. If this is your normal mode of winning, you are in trouble. But, if he can save you a handful of times a year when everything is breaking around him and he can still secure a victory, then you have an excellent QB.
That was this game.
The Cowboys entered the fourth quarter having run 40 plays to that juncture for just 204 yards and 10 points. They had converted 2-8 on 3rd downs and were in a massive mess that might cause a catastrophic loss.
What happened next was the ultimate “figuring it out.”
Two drives, 22 plays, 139 yards, and 10 huge points. It was winning time and the Cowboys were the team to make just enough plays to win the game at the finish line.
That is a very neat an important trick so they deserve a lot of credit for doing just that. But, man, nothing is easy right now for this offense and it is difficult to say they figured out a whole lot in this game other than extending hope.
Here is what the game looked like on the drive chart and you can see they save the best for the fourth quarter where they scored twice and then took the celebratory knee on the 10th and final drive to end the game.
Plays were left on the field, points were missed, and mistakes were made. So, this isn’t going to be a moment of false evaluations. We are of two minds here during this bye week and hopefully everyone understands that that is reality in the NFL.
The offense has components that seem to be broken. Much of it is based on the inability to run the football. You may recall that this was what sabotaged 2022, but we spent a lot of time hoping it was just Ezekiel Elliott, Joe Philbin, and the ACL of Terence Steele that caused all of this.
Surely, a running back with juice, a new offensive line coach, and a fully healthy first-choice offensive line will fix this if the offensive architect is a man who is determined to run the ball.
We can report without any hesitation that this is just not the case right now. The running game is a mess and next week in the bye week, we will do some deep diving to sort out what is going on.
But, today, having looked at the offensive performance, I want to tell you that you simply do not win this game if Dak Prescott doesn’t go out there and put one of his better performances together.
It was his 20th game-winning drive of his career and if you are curious the definition of the GWD, it is pretty simple according to profootballreference.com and their leaderboard:
Tony Romo, 29
Roger Staubach and Craig Morton, 21
Troy Aikman and Dak Prescott, 20
Danny White, 14
Now, obviously, each of those QBs had a different number of opportunities, as you will be rightfully reminded that Aikman’s teams were seldom in this spot (of course, Tom Brady has 58 GWD’s and has won more than any QB) and Romo’s teams from 2011-2013 were always asking him to “figure it out.” So, yes, the percentage adds context, but I just thought as with all of his predecessors, this is a week where you can feel great about your QB’s performance because it is what the NFL is all about. In fact, it sort of reminds us of the end of NBA games, too. This is where your guy needs to be better than their guy. Its that simple.
We have 15 minutes to play. We have two highly coveted QBs who will each get 2-3 drives to try to win this game. Who will emerge?
We have been disappointed in the showdowns vs Brock Purdy, but there was no question who the better QB was vs the Chargers’ $262-million man, Justin Herbert.
WEEKLY DATA BOX
There is much to be said about the QB’s performance, but we also must acknowledge that the offense in general was poor again.
Poor point production, poor offensive line play, poor running game, and overall that all made this tougher than it had to be.
Thankfully, the defense did a strong job of limiting the Chargers so that the game remained tied and in play.
But as we look at the performances from a couple perspectives, I think you will agree that this was not very pleasing to behold.
COWBOYS PERSONNEL GROUPINGS
Ok, above should stop us all down. 7.3 yards per play in 11 personnel on a night where the offense was at 5.6 yards per play. That means, as you can surmise, that every other grouping besides 11 was garbage. So, every multiple TE and FB grouping – the ones you try to run out of – got nothing done. 17 snaps for 20 yards! 1.2 yards per snap! Gross. This has to get cleaned up.
If we dig a bit deeper, you can see this is the 1st down running game:
1st down running plays
But, if you consider that 11 yards were a Dak scramble on a pass play, it drops to 13 for 36. Then, if you substract the Brandin Cooks end around for 14 yards, you quickly see that actually RB runs on 1st down totaled 12 runs for 22 yards.
It gets worse.
2nd down running plays
Oh no. 7 runs on second down for 11 yards?
Let’s add them up. First and second down runs on Monday: 19 runs for 33 yards! This is why we would say that like so many Romo games back in the day, this was a game where you pretty much were asking your QB to deal with every problem and just figure it out.
Because if you don’t, America is going to blame you anyway.
Again, we will do a deep dive on why the runs are a disaster before the team plays again, but for now, let’s study what made Dak’s performance on Monday one to be very complimentary about.
First, some of his best plays were under pressure. The Cowboys offensive line (see how we keep coming back to the OL?) seemed to struggle with winning the line of scrimmage on Monday. That is when you need your QB to function off schedule a bit.
And you can see, he made it work. CPOE - Completion percentage over expectation – was actually higher in these spots. He was very good with the ball and when you consider the plays Michael Gallup could have helped on, the stats should have been gaudier.
DAK PRESCOTT NEXT GEN THROW CHART
More deep passes which take more time to protect and often go off script. Again, we don’t want you to think we saw massive strides in the scheme itself in this game. The improv work of the QB and play-makers helped make some lemonade.
And as you can see above, that was largely CeeDee Lamb proving his quality (again), Brandin Cooks starting to get in the mix, and Tony Pollard’s play that might have triggered the whole fourth quarter.
Let’s focus on some of those big plays in this game in our film study and next week we will try to figure out where this offensive line and running game are taking us.
FILM STUDY
1Q - 7:11 - 2nd and 5 - LA 22 - D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to M.Gallup
Now, not everything was off-script. There were a couple really nice pass concepts that drove the ball down the field and into the deep middle, stressing safeties. I know this won’t quite mirror the narratives, but when they show you some pre-snap motion that carries right into the play that goes from 2x2 to a 3x1. When Cooks comes over, you get the bunched release that definitely opens up some nice options against Cover 1. For a moment, Gallup is open down the seam and in person, it looked like he should have made a better attempt, but upon further review, Dak just misses him by a small bit. The play didn’t work, but the play design did. They will come back to that.
1Q - 6:26 - 4th and 1 - LA 18 - D.Prescott right tackle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
We have been calling for this one to be used in San Francisco and perhaps the reason it wasn’t used was because they never got in the red zone in that game at all. That said, here they are on a 4th and 1 and the Cowboys have a chance early to run the zone read where Dak reads 45-Tulpulotu here on the right edge. It is a very clean edge because that edge is dead set on running down Pollard from behind. When he does, Dak sees nothing but green turf in front of him for a big touchdown run on 4th down. I think it should be noted that Pollard might have had a hard time finding a yard if he gave it to him.
2Q - 5:33 - 1st and 10 - LA 35 - D.Prescott pass incomplete deep middle to M.Gallup.
Two graded BTT’s here. That is Pro Football Focus’ highest reward for a throw and both of Dak’s were in the 2nd Quarter, actually. Big Time Throws and Turnover Worthy plays are their measures and I have always liked them more because the QB can’t catch it for them. So, on this play, we have an in structure concept that is far from dink and dunk. This is as aggressive a throw against a 2-shell as you will see, when QB sees the safety on the double side inserting down on 1st and 10 to stop the run and get on those shorter routes. The Chargers have confusion and you can see a lot of last-second waving around. Jake Ferguson will spring open in the flat, but Dak loves the Gallup post against safety coming downhill.
Again, this is a QB trusting his offense and attacking you where it takes some confidence and nerve, but this throw is perfect and to a very small target. Michael Gallup has zero confidence right now and this demonstrates it perfectly. He has to make a better attempt than this, even though I concede that isn’t easy. This is the NFL. Go win the ball. But, again, I am encouraged because both of these attempts to Gallup cause me to reconsider the “he can’t get open anymore” narrative. He may not win on shorter routes, but twice here, Gallup is available for a deep strike. I think it should encourage us to stick with it and assume that eventually it will start happening. Right?
2Q - 0:55 - 2nd and 10 - DAL 29 - D.Prescott pass deep right to C.Lamb ran ob at LAC 48 for 23 yards
This is just a tremendous weighted throw that travels 35-40 yards in the air and lands on a dinner plate for Lamb on a very deep out or a corner. Just a terrific throw.
This is what a big time throw looks like. Drops it right in there from a great distance. Well done.
Ok, those are the plays before the fourth quarter. Now, the “figure it out” stuff. The game-winning stuff.
4Q - 15:00 - 3rd and 11 - DAL 24 - D.Prescott pass short middle to T.Pollard to LAC 16 for 60 yards
The number of 3rd and longs is an issue. This is such a critical spot as the 1st play of the 4th Quarter and they are in rough place again. From yesterday’s piece:
4Q - 12:38 - 2nd and 12 - LA 18 - D.Prescott pass short middle to C.Lamb to LAC 3 for 15 yards
2x2 and Lamb is on a return route in the left slot. The LB is trying to spy and get in the path while watching the RB, but Dak and Lamb fool them and get to the middle of the field and a fresh set of downs. Lamb was thinking end zone here but sets up 1st and goal. Lamb underneath is impossible to cover. Which is why it is critical to play off him with the other receivers on the outside.
4Q - 11:26 - 2nd and Goal - LA 2 - D.Prescott pass short left to B.Cooks for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Two plays later, here is a red zone solution. Lamb in motion and Cooks on a shallow crosser that goes all the way through opposite of Gallup and Lamb. Such a tough cover and a tough throw to weight it perfectly off your back foot. Really got to drop this throw in the bucket, but Prescott makes it look pretty easy.
One more look to show you how quick it happens. Dak is in a constant pack-pedal to buy time and then feathers it nicely. Good to get Cooks going. 17-10, Dallas.
The only turnover on this day was the special teams, so now at 17-17, they need to march and get the game-winning score.
But, again, constantly in third downs because of penalties, pass protection, and no running game. Here we go on 3rd and 6.
4Q - 4:17 - 3rd and 6 - DAL 49 – D.Prescott pass deep right to C.Lamb ran ob at LAC 33 for 18 yards
A big time 3rd-and-6 throw from Prescott to Lamb for 18 yards might have been the best throw of the night (that was actually caught – Michael Gallup did Dak no favors). This is another spot where you either move the chains or punt with 4:17 to go and Prescott again delivered when needed most. Protection is not good and he figured it out again. This is great QB play.
Look at that play from his perspective. It’s third down. You have to have it but you barely get the ball before a guy is in your lap. Rico Dowdle did everything he could.
4Q - 3:30 - 3rd and 9 - LA 32 - D.Prescott pass short left to B.Cooks to LAC 21 for 11 yards
Third and 9 again. Fringe FG territory. Would really want to convert this one. Motion again and 3x1 to the top. Strong comeback to Cooks and the Cowboys are now in a wonderful spot with yet another 3rd and long conversion in the fourth quarter.
4Q - 2:28 - 3rd and 10 - LA 21 - D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to T.Pollard.
Still another 3rd and forever. If he hits this one we give him an A+ on the day. Instead, either Pollard runs the wheel too inside or Dak misses barely to the outside. I think this was such a great concept and it is amazing that Pollard played receiver at Memphis and yet we have hardly never seen this in four years of Kellen Moore’s offense. It is a miss, but it is also a concept we are coming back to versus man. You will not cover him with a linebacker on a vertical.
That is more than enough for this one, but I just think if we are going to dunk on Prescott for bad performances, we should really enjoy the good ones. He needed this and he delivered when very little else was working.
This is a gritty performance from a QB under tons of pressure. Great to see him rewarded with a big game-winning-4th Quarter performance in Herbert’s house.
Fourth Quarter Dak performance saves game, but scheme is still looking for solutions
BOB STURM
OCT 18, 2023
Much of this season has been “off” for the offense and while patience is required in any build, there isn’t much to be found because the league isn’t waiting for you to sort issues.
So, on Monday, the Cowboys won a hard fought game that they should be proud about figuring out. Many teams in this league lose that game, so the desperation of this Dallas team – and in particular, its QB – pulled one out of the fire just in case.
That is the very essence of this sport. There are days where things are easy and many more days where things are hard. You better be able to win your share of those ugly ones where both teams are playing each-other to a draw and whoever can make that one extra play can leave with best deodorant in sports, a win.
We know the margins are so small, but the ramifications are huge. Some games, you hope your franchise QB can just “figure it out” and win the ugly one. If this is your normal mode of winning, you are in trouble. But, if he can save you a handful of times a year when everything is breaking around him and he can still secure a victory, then you have an excellent QB.
That was this game.
The Cowboys entered the fourth quarter having run 40 plays to that juncture for just 204 yards and 10 points. They had converted 2-8 on 3rd downs and were in a massive mess that might cause a catastrophic loss.
What happened next was the ultimate “figuring it out.”
Two drives, 22 plays, 139 yards, and 10 huge points. It was winning time and the Cowboys were the team to make just enough plays to win the game at the finish line.
That is a very neat an important trick so they deserve a lot of credit for doing just that. But, man, nothing is easy right now for this offense and it is difficult to say they figured out a whole lot in this game other than extending hope.
Here is what the game looked like on the drive chart and you can see they save the best for the fourth quarter where they scored twice and then took the celebratory knee on the 10th and final drive to end the game.
Plays were left on the field, points were missed, and mistakes were made. So, this isn’t going to be a moment of false evaluations. We are of two minds here during this bye week and hopefully everyone understands that that is reality in the NFL.
The offense has components that seem to be broken. Much of it is based on the inability to run the football. You may recall that this was what sabotaged 2022, but we spent a lot of time hoping it was just Ezekiel Elliott, Joe Philbin, and the ACL of Terence Steele that caused all of this.
Surely, a running back with juice, a new offensive line coach, and a fully healthy first-choice offensive line will fix this if the offensive architect is a man who is determined to run the ball.
We can report without any hesitation that this is just not the case right now. The running game is a mess and next week in the bye week, we will do some deep diving to sort out what is going on.
But, today, having looked at the offensive performance, I want to tell you that you simply do not win this game if Dak Prescott doesn’t go out there and put one of his better performances together.
It was his 20th game-winning drive of his career and if you are curious the definition of the GWD, it is pretty simple according to profootballreference.com and their leaderboard:
- team must win game
- team must, at some point, have possession of the ball tied or down by one score (1-8 points) in 4th quarter or OT
- the offensive scoring drive must conclude in the 4th quarter or OT.
- the scoring play to put the winning points on the board must be the result of an offensive drive
Tony Romo, 29
Roger Staubach and Craig Morton, 21
Troy Aikman and Dak Prescott, 20
Danny White, 14
Now, obviously, each of those QBs had a different number of opportunities, as you will be rightfully reminded that Aikman’s teams were seldom in this spot (of course, Tom Brady has 58 GWD’s and has won more than any QB) and Romo’s teams from 2011-2013 were always asking him to “figure it out.” So, yes, the percentage adds context, but I just thought as with all of his predecessors, this is a week where you can feel great about your QB’s performance because it is what the NFL is all about. In fact, it sort of reminds us of the end of NBA games, too. This is where your guy needs to be better than their guy. Its that simple.
We have 15 minutes to play. We have two highly coveted QBs who will each get 2-3 drives to try to win this game. Who will emerge?
We have been disappointed in the showdowns vs Brock Purdy, but there was no question who the better QB was vs the Chargers’ $262-million man, Justin Herbert.
WEEKLY DATA BOX
There is much to be said about the QB’s performance, but we also must acknowledge that the offense in general was poor again.
Poor point production, poor offensive line play, poor running game, and overall that all made this tougher than it had to be.
Thankfully, the defense did a strong job of limiting the Chargers so that the game remained tied and in play.
But as we look at the performances from a couple perspectives, I think you will agree that this was not very pleasing to behold.
COWBOYS PERSONNEL GROUPINGS
Ok, above should stop us all down. 7.3 yards per play in 11 personnel on a night where the offense was at 5.6 yards per play. That means, as you can surmise, that every other grouping besides 11 was garbage. So, every multiple TE and FB grouping – the ones you try to run out of – got nothing done. 17 snaps for 20 yards! 1.2 yards per snap! Gross. This has to get cleaned up.
If we dig a bit deeper, you can see this is the 1st down running game:
1st down running plays
But, if you consider that 11 yards were a Dak scramble on a pass play, it drops to 13 for 36. Then, if you substract the Brandin Cooks end around for 14 yards, you quickly see that actually RB runs on 1st down totaled 12 runs for 22 yards.
It gets worse.
2nd down running plays
Oh no. 7 runs on second down for 11 yards?
Let’s add them up. First and second down runs on Monday: 19 runs for 33 yards! This is why we would say that like so many Romo games back in the day, this was a game where you pretty much were asking your QB to deal with every problem and just figure it out.
Because if you don’t, America is going to blame you anyway.
Again, we will do a deep dive on why the runs are a disaster before the team plays again, but for now, let’s study what made Dak’s performance on Monday one to be very complimentary about.
First, some of his best plays were under pressure. The Cowboys offensive line (see how we keep coming back to the OL?) seemed to struggle with winning the line of scrimmage on Monday. That is when you need your QB to function off schedule a bit.
And you can see, he made it work. CPOE - Completion percentage over expectation – was actually higher in these spots. He was very good with the ball and when you consider the plays Michael Gallup could have helped on, the stats should have been gaudier.
DAK PRESCOTT NEXT GEN THROW CHART
More deep passes which take more time to protect and often go off script. Again, we don’t want you to think we saw massive strides in the scheme itself in this game. The improv work of the QB and play-makers helped make some lemonade.
And as you can see above, that was largely CeeDee Lamb proving his quality (again), Brandin Cooks starting to get in the mix, and Tony Pollard’s play that might have triggered the whole fourth quarter.
Let’s focus on some of those big plays in this game in our film study and next week we will try to figure out where this offensive line and running game are taking us.
FILM STUDY
1Q - 7:11 - 2nd and 5 - LA 22 - D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to M.Gallup
Now, not everything was off-script. There were a couple really nice pass concepts that drove the ball down the field and into the deep middle, stressing safeties. I know this won’t quite mirror the narratives, but when they show you some pre-snap motion that carries right into the play that goes from 2x2 to a 3x1. When Cooks comes over, you get the bunched release that definitely opens up some nice options against Cover 1. For a moment, Gallup is open down the seam and in person, it looked like he should have made a better attempt, but upon further review, Dak just misses him by a small bit. The play didn’t work, but the play design did. They will come back to that.
1Q - 6:26 - 4th and 1 - LA 18 - D.Prescott right tackle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
We have been calling for this one to be used in San Francisco and perhaps the reason it wasn’t used was because they never got in the red zone in that game at all. That said, here they are on a 4th and 1 and the Cowboys have a chance early to run the zone read where Dak reads 45-Tulpulotu here on the right edge. It is a very clean edge because that edge is dead set on running down Pollard from behind. When he does, Dak sees nothing but green turf in front of him for a big touchdown run on 4th down. I think it should be noted that Pollard might have had a hard time finding a yard if he gave it to him.
2Q - 5:33 - 1st and 10 - LA 35 - D.Prescott pass incomplete deep middle to M.Gallup.
Two graded BTT’s here. That is Pro Football Focus’ highest reward for a throw and both of Dak’s were in the 2nd Quarter, actually. Big Time Throws and Turnover Worthy plays are their measures and I have always liked them more because the QB can’t catch it for them. So, on this play, we have an in structure concept that is far from dink and dunk. This is as aggressive a throw against a 2-shell as you will see, when QB sees the safety on the double side inserting down on 1st and 10 to stop the run and get on those shorter routes. The Chargers have confusion and you can see a lot of last-second waving around. Jake Ferguson will spring open in the flat, but Dak loves the Gallup post against safety coming downhill.
Again, this is a QB trusting his offense and attacking you where it takes some confidence and nerve, but this throw is perfect and to a very small target. Michael Gallup has zero confidence right now and this demonstrates it perfectly. He has to make a better attempt than this, even though I concede that isn’t easy. This is the NFL. Go win the ball. But, again, I am encouraged because both of these attempts to Gallup cause me to reconsider the “he can’t get open anymore” narrative. He may not win on shorter routes, but twice here, Gallup is available for a deep strike. I think it should encourage us to stick with it and assume that eventually it will start happening. Right?
2Q - 0:55 - 2nd and 10 - DAL 29 - D.Prescott pass deep right to C.Lamb ran ob at LAC 48 for 23 yards
This is just a tremendous weighted throw that travels 35-40 yards in the air and lands on a dinner plate for Lamb on a very deep out or a corner. Just a terrific throw.
This is what a big time throw looks like. Drops it right in there from a great distance. Well done.
Ok, those are the plays before the fourth quarter. Now, the “figure it out” stuff. The game-winning stuff.
4Q - 15:00 - 3rd and 11 - DAL 24 - D.Prescott pass short middle to T.Pollard to LAC 16 for 60 yards
The number of 3rd and longs is an issue. This is such a critical spot as the 1st play of the 4th Quarter and they are in rough place again. From yesterday’s piece:
That is “figure it out” football right there. Next.
4Q - 12:38 - 2nd and 12 - LA 18 - D.Prescott pass short middle to C.Lamb to LAC 3 for 15 yards
2x2 and Lamb is on a return route in the left slot. The LB is trying to spy and get in the path while watching the RB, but Dak and Lamb fool them and get to the middle of the field and a fresh set of downs. Lamb was thinking end zone here but sets up 1st and goal. Lamb underneath is impossible to cover. Which is why it is critical to play off him with the other receivers on the outside.
4Q - 11:26 - 2nd and Goal - LA 2 - D.Prescott pass short left to B.Cooks for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Two plays later, here is a red zone solution. Lamb in motion and Cooks on a shallow crosser that goes all the way through opposite of Gallup and Lamb. Such a tough cover and a tough throw to weight it perfectly off your back foot. Really got to drop this throw in the bucket, but Prescott makes it look pretty easy.
One more look to show you how quick it happens. Dak is in a constant pack-pedal to buy time and then feathers it nicely. Good to get Cooks going. 17-10, Dallas.
The only turnover on this day was the special teams, so now at 17-17, they need to march and get the game-winning score.
But, again, constantly in third downs because of penalties, pass protection, and no running game. Here we go on 3rd and 6.
4Q - 4:17 - 3rd and 6 - DAL 49 – D.Prescott pass deep right to C.Lamb ran ob at LAC 33 for 18 yards
A big time 3rd-and-6 throw from Prescott to Lamb for 18 yards might have been the best throw of the night (that was actually caught – Michael Gallup did Dak no favors). This is another spot where you either move the chains or punt with 4:17 to go and Prescott again delivered when needed most. Protection is not good and he figured it out again. This is great QB play.
Look at that play from his perspective. It’s third down. You have to have it but you barely get the ball before a guy is in your lap. Rico Dowdle did everything he could.
4Q - 3:30 - 3rd and 9 - LA 32 - D.Prescott pass short left to B.Cooks to LAC 21 for 11 yards
Third and 9 again. Fringe FG territory. Would really want to convert this one. Motion again and 3x1 to the top. Strong comeback to Cooks and the Cowboys are now in a wonderful spot with yet another 3rd and long conversion in the fourth quarter.
4Q - 2:28 - 3rd and 10 - LA 21 - D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to T.Pollard.
Still another 3rd and forever. If he hits this one we give him an A+ on the day. Instead, either Pollard runs the wheel too inside or Dak misses barely to the outside. I think this was such a great concept and it is amazing that Pollard played receiver at Memphis and yet we have hardly never seen this in four years of Kellen Moore’s offense. It is a miss, but it is also a concept we are coming back to versus man. You will not cover him with a linebacker on a vertical.
That is more than enough for this one, but I just think if we are going to dunk on Prescott for bad performances, we should really enjoy the good ones. He needed this and he delivered when very little else was working.
This is a gritty performance from a QB under tons of pressure. Great to see him rewarded with a big game-winning-4th Quarter performance in Herbert’s house.
