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Decoding McCarthy - Many Red Zone Problems
Trying to understand why touchdowns are turning into field goals in 2023.
BOB STURM
To have this conversation on the proper terms, I would love to quote the late coach, Joe Avezzano. I assume he needs no introduction, but just in case, Avezzano was a football lifer who gained most fame for his work as the special teams coach of the Dallas Cowboys during the Jimmy Johnson dynasty and all the way through the Dave Campo coaching era (1990-2002).
After that, he had a few more coaching gigs, but also did some broadcast work with me, both on radio and television. I learned a lot from him, but one quote absolutely would be the one I think about all the time when covering the NFL; he would say, “Remember Bob, the other team pays its players, too.”
The meaning, of course, is simple. We are so myopic in either praising or criticizing our guys that we don’t consider that the other side is trying to thwart our side. Sometimes, the other side had a very good plan and should get just a little bit of credit before we rip our guys to shreds after a loss like this. Why? Because they pay their players, too.
That takes us to the hot debate these days with the Cowboys offense about the red zone and the inability to score touchdowns in Arizona. Dallas has been very good in the red zone since Dak Prescott returned in 2021 from his massive injury of 2020.
Yesterday, we talked about how they were the best team in the league over two full years of 2021-22 at red zone touchdown percentage, or RZTD% for short. That is a huge sample size and I cannot hardly remember anyone talking about this being an issue before the Jets game one week ago. But, in fairness, 2-for-6 followed by 1-for-5 is a two-game stretch of 3-for-11 on red zone drives. That 27% is very troubling and it can easily be argued that it lost the game in Arizona. Eleven red zone trips in two games is more than average.
Your percentage can afford to be a bit lower, but it cannot be that low.
We need context to have this discussion, so let’s do it. The average NFL offense scores when they get in the red zone between 56% and 58% of the time. Above 66% will lead the league most years (Dallas had 71% in 2022) and the absolute worst in the NFL is anything below 50%.
The number fluctuates, but if you study 3rd downs and red zones, you see the same trends: the teams with the best QBs usually do very well in these stats. And over his career Dak Prescott’s RZTD% is 61%. In other words, he is well above average at this. Since people always ask, Tony Romo’s career number? 57%. Patrick Mahomes? 64%. Aaron Rodgers? 61%. Drew Brees? 62% And Tom Brady? 60%.
The other thing about percentage stats is that we have to use a proper sample size, of course. Corey Seager is having a massive year but he will go 0-for-9 over two games. Luka Doncic will have a two night stretch of 2-for-16 from 3-point range. Neither is true any more than it is when Seager has a 8-for-10 stretch. We must broaden the samples.
But, what are the objectives we know about running a proper red zone offense?
Since the start of 2021, Travis Kelce leads the NFL in receiving red zone touchdowns with 20. Stefon Diggs (18), Cooper Kupp (17), and Davante Adams (16) are next. But there are no Cowboys in the top 40. Unless you consider Amari Cooper who has (11) or Dalton Schultz (11) who are both 13th. Then if you add in the RB’s who crash in on the ground, you quickly see that Dallas has made some choices recently that might not have been red zone-friendly:
NFL Ranks in Red Zone TD’s from 2021-present, TruMedia
Are you thinking what I’m thinking? The guys left behind don’t specialize in red zone work and now Dallas has to find a new way in.
Ok, let’s work through these stats quickly because I have a truckload of red zone film to look at and I realize you don’t have all day, so I will be brief on these numbers:
First, we see a lot of good here on total yardage, 3rd downs, and time of possession. But, of course, 5.5 yards per attempt in the passing game is not enough. Again, we cannot lose sight of the fact that they didn’t have their offensive line, so let’s not lose our mind. They had no Zack Martin, Tyron Smith, and Tyler Biadasz and all of that matters very much.
They had Chuma Edoga at left tackle, Brock Hoffman at center, and TJ Bass at right guard. So, everything we do today, we have to remember that they are trying to make every decision based on protecting those guys. If we put ourselves in their shoes, it makes sense that they were being conservative on Sunday.
What happened to my 10 personnel and matchup players? The game-plan had no interest in going back to the short-stack offense. Surely that is because they didn’t want the OL to have to count on having no help from backs on protection. Regardless, they had multiple TE groupings for 23 plays of just 97 yards. Add in the fullback plays and it moves to 29 plays for 125 yards (4.3 per play). Dallas wanted “big personnel” groupings to help their backup linemen and I think it took away the edge from their skill groups. Didn’t like that decision at all, but Mike McCarthy is going to always default on having enough muscle out there and without his big bullies, he might have gone too far.
DAK PRESCOTT NEXT GEN THROW CHART
This one shows it clearly. Dak’s job was to get the ball out quickly and not to expose his line more than they had to. Did they get too cute? Possibly, but it makes sense.
OK, I will try not to belabor each play, but let’s do this. You want to know what happened on the five red zone trips? Let me take you on a (lengthy) journey. Grab a coffee and maybe a lunch. Let’s begin.
Disclaimer: We do not know the calls or the specifics of all the coaching directives. We make our best educated guesses from our experience and will occasionally be wrong in our analysis. This game is complex and we do not have all the answers. But we do seek them.
Trip No. 1 - Success
2Q - 5:40 - 2nd and 14 - ARZ 15 - D.Prescott pass short right to R.Dowdle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Reminder: the 3 dots on each video on the far right includes “playback speed” and I recommend you slow down the speed as far as it goes so you can see the details of each play in slow-motion.
First half, they scored on their only red zone trip on this screen. Rico Dowdle might be a dude as we are finding plays each week with him. Watch TJ Bass (No. 66) get out in front and Brandin Cooks gets his guy at the goal-line. Brock Hoffman with a nice cut-off and Tyler Smith rumbles down there. Good stuff and a quick touchdown.
Now, to the bad stuff. They had four possessions in the second half and every one of them made it to the Cardinals red zone. Four trips means you need at least 20 points, they left with six.
Ouch.
Trip No. 2 - Failure
3Q - 10:20 - 1st and 10 - Arz 11 - T.Pollard up the middle to ARZ 8 for 3 yards (J.Ledbetter).
Opening drive of second half. A big Dak scramble sets you up for a 1st down at the 11-yard line. Cowboys want to run the rock. Unfortunately, here, big No. 93 Jonathan Ledbetter beats Bass at the point of attack and Pollard has nowhere to go. Hoffman thinks about helping on the double, but if he does, No. 7 Kyzir White is unblocked, so he is in a tough spot. Ledbetter wins. On to second down.
3Q - 9:43 - 2nd and 7 - ARZ 8 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle [J.Luketa].
12 personnel with double TE to the right, Lamb clears out in motion and shows a zone. Cowboys play-action boot back to the right to get Dak on the move. He has Lamb coming across, Ferguson on the flat, and Hendershot to the backline of the end zone. By the time Lamb gets across the hash marks, there are seven Cardinals on this side as they were not fooled one bit. Meanwhile, Ledbetter is again sprinting at Dak and you could say Ferguson is open briefly, it will likely only get a few quick yards. Well defended again. You fooled nobody.
3Q - 9:35 - 3rd and 7 - ARZ 8 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to B.Cooks
Now, third and 7. I have heard it claimed Cooks is open here (the No. 2 receiver on the right), but I don’t agree. It would have to be very quick and on him because that corner is crashing down fast. Dak is dealing with a free runner right at him as RT Steele blocks down. This is where I am trying to layer a throw to Lamb (inside right) to the pylon, but that coverage is pretty good, too. He tries to jam it in to Cooks, but by now, it is too late.
Field Goal unit is on to cut it to 21-13.
Trip No. 3 - Failure
3Q - 5:03 - 1st and 10 - ARZ 11 - R.Dowdle up the middle to ARZ 9 for 2 yards (J.Thompson).
Pollard for 31 yards and you are back here at the 11-yard line on first down. This is a pivotal sequence to say the least. 11 personnel with Tolbert and Gallup on one side, Cooks on the other. Cooks is in some jet motion as eye candy and then Tolbert comes across as the lead sniffer for Dowdle. Lots of movement and deception tried on what is a pretty basic run inside to get what looks like duo up front. This is doomed when Jake Ferguson loses badly on his block (No. 43 Luketa) and No. 34 Thompson is crashing in on the other side. Tough yards.
3Q - 4:28 - 2nd and 8 - ARZ 9 - R.Dowdle right end to ARZ 4 for 5 yards
Hey look, its the fullback lead swing pass from last week again! Not a bad idea to get Dowdle in space with the FB leading the way in a concept that seems to work. Of course, the Cardinals watch film, too. What I think Dallas will see on the film is that their TE Schoonmaker is open at the 2, so if Prescott can use that swing to move the defense, he can drill it in to his tight end and either score or move the chains. But, the numbers are good on the swing, but there is their LB No. 7 White again and he does a great job of closing down Dowdle and reducing the damage. Five yards is solid.
3Q - 3:51 - 3rd and 3 - ARZ 4 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to M.Gallup. PENALTY on DAL-C.Edoga, Offensive Holding, 10 yards
This play is horrible. Botched snap and the play is chaos. We have two rub routes as man beaters on the goal-line and neither is run properly. Here at the bottom, Cooks and Gallup do not run it tightly enough and nothing is there. At the top, Lamb and Ferguson run into each-other. Now, Dak is in fire-drill mode and the left tackle holds his man, No. 52 Dimukeje. Everything went wrong here and after a third and 13, they set up the 4th down “go for it” next:
3Q - 3:03 - 4th and 3 - ARZ 4 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to C.Lamb.
This is tough. You have 11 personnel with motion into a 3x1 to the left. Dak is initially looking to escape and for a brief moment you wonder if he can get to the sticks, if not the end zone. But, man, look at that secondary. I see nothing open at any point. Michael Gallup up top is just bullied right out of bounds. Lamb is jammed up, even with a switch release from Ferguson to help. But, it looks like CeeDee wants a flag (good luck!). By the time Dak escapes, there is no chance to run it in and nothing close to open in the end zone. I don’t mind going for it, but the Cardinals have everything locked down. Dallas is making things look pretty difficult right now.
Turnover on downs.
Trip No. 4 - Failure
4th Quarter, still 21-13.
4Q - 10:39 - 1st and 10 - ARZ 10 - T.Pollard left tackle to ARZ 8 for 2 yards
Allow me to go back to Avezzano and say, the Cardinals are playing great defense and offering some teach tape on how to stop a FB lead. There is just no movement to be found here. Now, your counter as your frustration rises might be, “why are we continuing to run inside on every 1st down?” and I agree. But, the play-sheet shrinks when every run AND every pass looks like the Cardinals are sitting on your ideas before they happen. Dallas has to be concerned about how predictable they appear on this day.
4Q - 10:20 - 2nd and 8 - ARZ 8 - C.Lamb right end to ARZ 8 for no gain
As you can see, now we have pulled out the orbit motion into a speed option pitch from Dak to Lamb. This might be the point in our film session where we concede you might need your big All-Pro linemen back to function. Because this is a concept that makes sense. Split the field into two halves and have a power run and a play in space with your best play-maker. Surely, one of the two will be available. But, here, both look doomed. You are out-flanked on Pollard’s side and Lamb has three guys closing him down and has no chance. No. 97 Cam Thomas is on Dak and then spins to Lamb. No. 7 White is still all over the field like a maniac. And here comes No. 36 Chachere to surround him. The Cardinals are playing faster and now it is starting to get in their heads.
4Q - 9:40 - 3rd and 8 - ARZ 8 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to C.Lamb
This is very straight forward. A seven-man blitz is coming. You motion to clear out and give your best WR a chance to win against a rookie sixth-round corner with no help. Can CeeDee Lamb win against KeiTrel Clark with the game on the line? Lamb doesn’t even come close. He wants the ref to bail him out and doesn’t even try for the ball? I am not sure too many people defend Lamb more than I do, but let’s just say that this is not Dez Bryant on an end zone fade. You must have a “my ball” mentality here and Lamb looks lost. Very disappointing. Maybe even worse than that.
So, you kick to make it 21-16. Amazingly, you are still in it. But, the defense caves and it is now 28-16 when you get your fifth trip in the red zone. There is still time, but not a ton.
Trip No. 5 - Failure
4Q - 4:04 - 1st and Goal - ARZ 5 - T.Pollard up the middle to ARZ 7 for -2 yards
This is a brilliant opportunity to read No. 97 Thomas and slow him down because he is jumping everything. We will not block him, fake to Pollard, keep the ball, and waltz into the end zone. Wait, no? They actually handed it off with an unblocked edge in his lap? What are they doing? This makes no sense. Dak has to keep it. Also, look to the top where a quick throw to Lamb also likely scores. They had three options and the one that the Cardinals had defended is where the ball went. I might need a drink.
If Dak Prescott will not use his legs in the tight red zone, I don’t think they can be successful right now.
4Q - 3:33 - 2nd and Goal - ARZ 7 - T.Pollard left tackle to ARZ 6 for 1 yard
Second down and another inside run that has a chance to be a touchdown. But Jake Ferguson is not getting Cam Thomas blocked on this day. The Cardinals have an edge in Thomas who was so good all day. These tight ends had a rough day. Not sure the experiment is going really well at the position right now with all the young TEs.
4Q - 3:05 - 3rd and Goal - ARZ 6 - D.Prescott pass short middle intended for B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by K.White
From yesterday’s piece: This is the dagger and it shows you all sorts of problems vividly. It shows a 4-man rush to keep Dak in the well and then defend with seven. But, this is man coverage, too, with a middle robber at LB (7-White) and a single-high safety (36-Chachere) who are converging on anything in the middle of the field. White is there also to spy Prescott in the event of a run. The throw here, albeit not terribly open, either, is the slot corner to Lamb to the back pylon against the veteran Marco Wilson. There is a very good chance that the Cardinals specifically want that matchup, but if I am getting ready to dump over $100m on CeeDee Lamb, then he better be able to win a 1-on-1 route like this in the end zone or, as great as he is at times, I still need a No. 1 WR. Lamb must beat Wilson on this play for a touchdown and Dak must give him another opportunity. Instead, Dak either doesn’t mind throwing into a triangle of danger or doesn’t see it. Neither covers him in glory.
End Zone view: This reveals where Dak’s eyes are. All you have to do is look at the stripe on his helmet and see it never moves. He is forcing that ball in there all day long and doesn’t even consider Lamb. Is he annoyed at that fade where Lamb seems to give up? No idea, but he is staring this throw down as if this is his very first rodeo.
Summary: Frustrating as can be. The concepts are at least a little more evident on further review, but you never gained an advantage a against a defense that couldnt stop Daniel Jones the week before. The very real possibility that Amari Cooper, Ezekiel Elliott and yes, maybe even Dalton Schultz were the solution and now you have a bunch of smallish skill guys who are not ideal for the goal-line is right in your face.
The opponents deserve tons of credit, but if you think this is tough, try scoring against the 49ers personnel with this sort of performance.
Mike McCarthy, Brian Schottenheimer, and Dak Prescott need answers for this situation, and fast. Some seem obvious and some seem like they will take some experimentation. Perhaps getting your OL back is one objective, but this seems more than that.
I have never missed Dez Bryant more.
Trying to understand why touchdowns are turning into field goals in 2023.
BOB STURM
To have this conversation on the proper terms, I would love to quote the late coach, Joe Avezzano. I assume he needs no introduction, but just in case, Avezzano was a football lifer who gained most fame for his work as the special teams coach of the Dallas Cowboys during the Jimmy Johnson dynasty and all the way through the Dave Campo coaching era (1990-2002).
After that, he had a few more coaching gigs, but also did some broadcast work with me, both on radio and television. I learned a lot from him, but one quote absolutely would be the one I think about all the time when covering the NFL; he would say, “Remember Bob, the other team pays its players, too.”
The meaning, of course, is simple. We are so myopic in either praising or criticizing our guys that we don’t consider that the other side is trying to thwart our side. Sometimes, the other side had a very good plan and should get just a little bit of credit before we rip our guys to shreds after a loss like this. Why? Because they pay their players, too.
That takes us to the hot debate these days with the Cowboys offense about the red zone and the inability to score touchdowns in Arizona. Dallas has been very good in the red zone since Dak Prescott returned in 2021 from his massive injury of 2020.
Yesterday, we talked about how they were the best team in the league over two full years of 2021-22 at red zone touchdown percentage, or RZTD% for short. That is a huge sample size and I cannot hardly remember anyone talking about this being an issue before the Jets game one week ago. But, in fairness, 2-for-6 followed by 1-for-5 is a two-game stretch of 3-for-11 on red zone drives. That 27% is very troubling and it can easily be argued that it lost the game in Arizona. Eleven red zone trips in two games is more than average.
Your percentage can afford to be a bit lower, but it cannot be that low.
We need context to have this discussion, so let’s do it. The average NFL offense scores when they get in the red zone between 56% and 58% of the time. Above 66% will lead the league most years (Dallas had 71% in 2022) and the absolute worst in the NFL is anything below 50%.
The number fluctuates, but if you study 3rd downs and red zones, you see the same trends: the teams with the best QBs usually do very well in these stats. And over his career Dak Prescott’s RZTD% is 61%. In other words, he is well above average at this. Since people always ask, Tony Romo’s career number? 57%. Patrick Mahomes? 64%. Aaron Rodgers? 61%. Drew Brees? 62% And Tom Brady? 60%.
The other thing about percentage stats is that we have to use a proper sample size, of course. Corey Seager is having a massive year but he will go 0-for-9 over two games. Luka Doncic will have a two night stretch of 2-for-16 from 3-point range. Neither is true any more than it is when Seager has a 8-for-10 stretch. We must broaden the samples.
But, what are the objectives we know about running a proper red zone offense?
- We are trying to create matchups we favor with playmakers.
- The ball must come out quickly and decisively.
- Short field means coverage is compacted into tighter windows.
- Running plays must hit quickly and get upfield.
- Turnovers are the ultimate enemy.
Since the start of 2021, Travis Kelce leads the NFL in receiving red zone touchdowns with 20. Stefon Diggs (18), Cooper Kupp (17), and Davante Adams (16) are next. But there are no Cowboys in the top 40. Unless you consider Amari Cooper who has (11) or Dalton Schultz (11) who are both 13th. Then if you add in the RB’s who crash in on the ground, you quickly see that Dallas has made some choices recently that might not have been red zone-friendly:
NFL Ranks in Red Zone TD’s from 2021-present, TruMedia
Are you thinking what I’m thinking? The guys left behind don’t specialize in red zone work and now Dallas has to find a new way in.
Ok, let’s work through these stats quickly because I have a truckload of red zone film to look at and I realize you don’t have all day, so I will be brief on these numbers:
First, we see a lot of good here on total yardage, 3rd downs, and time of possession. But, of course, 5.5 yards per attempt in the passing game is not enough. Again, we cannot lose sight of the fact that they didn’t have their offensive line, so let’s not lose our mind. They had no Zack Martin, Tyron Smith, and Tyler Biadasz and all of that matters very much.
They had Chuma Edoga at left tackle, Brock Hoffman at center, and TJ Bass at right guard. So, everything we do today, we have to remember that they are trying to make every decision based on protecting those guys. If we put ourselves in their shoes, it makes sense that they were being conservative on Sunday.
What happened to my 10 personnel and matchup players? The game-plan had no interest in going back to the short-stack offense. Surely that is because they didn’t want the OL to have to count on having no help from backs on protection. Regardless, they had multiple TE groupings for 23 plays of just 97 yards. Add in the fullback plays and it moves to 29 plays for 125 yards (4.3 per play). Dallas wanted “big personnel” groupings to help their backup linemen and I think it took away the edge from their skill groups. Didn’t like that decision at all, but Mike McCarthy is going to always default on having enough muscle out there and without his big bullies, he might have gone too far.
DAK PRESCOTT NEXT GEN THROW CHART
This one shows it clearly. Dak’s job was to get the ball out quickly and not to expose his line more than they had to. Did they get too cute? Possibly, but it makes sense.
OK, I will try not to belabor each play, but let’s do this. You want to know what happened on the five red zone trips? Let me take you on a (lengthy) journey. Grab a coffee and maybe a lunch. Let’s begin.
Disclaimer: We do not know the calls or the specifics of all the coaching directives. We make our best educated guesses from our experience and will occasionally be wrong in our analysis. This game is complex and we do not have all the answers. But we do seek them.
Trip No. 1 - Success
2Q - 5:40 - 2nd and 14 - ARZ 15 - D.Prescott pass short right to R.Dowdle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Reminder: the 3 dots on each video on the far right includes “playback speed” and I recommend you slow down the speed as far as it goes so you can see the details of each play in slow-motion.
First half, they scored on their only red zone trip on this screen. Rico Dowdle might be a dude as we are finding plays each week with him. Watch TJ Bass (No. 66) get out in front and Brandin Cooks gets his guy at the goal-line. Brock Hoffman with a nice cut-off and Tyler Smith rumbles down there. Good stuff and a quick touchdown.
Now, to the bad stuff. They had four possessions in the second half and every one of them made it to the Cardinals red zone. Four trips means you need at least 20 points, they left with six.
Ouch.
Trip No. 2 - Failure
3Q - 10:20 - 1st and 10 - Arz 11 - T.Pollard up the middle to ARZ 8 for 3 yards (J.Ledbetter).
Opening drive of second half. A big Dak scramble sets you up for a 1st down at the 11-yard line. Cowboys want to run the rock. Unfortunately, here, big No. 93 Jonathan Ledbetter beats Bass at the point of attack and Pollard has nowhere to go. Hoffman thinks about helping on the double, but if he does, No. 7 Kyzir White is unblocked, so he is in a tough spot. Ledbetter wins. On to second down.
3Q - 9:43 - 2nd and 7 - ARZ 8 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle [J.Luketa].
12 personnel with double TE to the right, Lamb clears out in motion and shows a zone. Cowboys play-action boot back to the right to get Dak on the move. He has Lamb coming across, Ferguson on the flat, and Hendershot to the backline of the end zone. By the time Lamb gets across the hash marks, there are seven Cardinals on this side as they were not fooled one bit. Meanwhile, Ledbetter is again sprinting at Dak and you could say Ferguson is open briefly, it will likely only get a few quick yards. Well defended again. You fooled nobody.
3Q - 9:35 - 3rd and 7 - ARZ 8 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to B.Cooks
Now, third and 7. I have heard it claimed Cooks is open here (the No. 2 receiver on the right), but I don’t agree. It would have to be very quick and on him because that corner is crashing down fast. Dak is dealing with a free runner right at him as RT Steele blocks down. This is where I am trying to layer a throw to Lamb (inside right) to the pylon, but that coverage is pretty good, too. He tries to jam it in to Cooks, but by now, it is too late.
Field Goal unit is on to cut it to 21-13.
Trip No. 3 - Failure
3Q - 5:03 - 1st and 10 - ARZ 11 - R.Dowdle up the middle to ARZ 9 for 2 yards (J.Thompson).
Pollard for 31 yards and you are back here at the 11-yard line on first down. This is a pivotal sequence to say the least. 11 personnel with Tolbert and Gallup on one side, Cooks on the other. Cooks is in some jet motion as eye candy and then Tolbert comes across as the lead sniffer for Dowdle. Lots of movement and deception tried on what is a pretty basic run inside to get what looks like duo up front. This is doomed when Jake Ferguson loses badly on his block (No. 43 Luketa) and No. 34 Thompson is crashing in on the other side. Tough yards.
3Q - 4:28 - 2nd and 8 - ARZ 9 - R.Dowdle right end to ARZ 4 for 5 yards
Hey look, its the fullback lead swing pass from last week again! Not a bad idea to get Dowdle in space with the FB leading the way in a concept that seems to work. Of course, the Cardinals watch film, too. What I think Dallas will see on the film is that their TE Schoonmaker is open at the 2, so if Prescott can use that swing to move the defense, he can drill it in to his tight end and either score or move the chains. But, the numbers are good on the swing, but there is their LB No. 7 White again and he does a great job of closing down Dowdle and reducing the damage. Five yards is solid.
3Q - 3:51 - 3rd and 3 - ARZ 4 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to M.Gallup. PENALTY on DAL-C.Edoga, Offensive Holding, 10 yards
This play is horrible. Botched snap and the play is chaos. We have two rub routes as man beaters on the goal-line and neither is run properly. Here at the bottom, Cooks and Gallup do not run it tightly enough and nothing is there. At the top, Lamb and Ferguson run into each-other. Now, Dak is in fire-drill mode and the left tackle holds his man, No. 52 Dimukeje. Everything went wrong here and after a third and 13, they set up the 4th down “go for it” next:
3Q - 3:03 - 4th and 3 - ARZ 4 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to C.Lamb.
This is tough. You have 11 personnel with motion into a 3x1 to the left. Dak is initially looking to escape and for a brief moment you wonder if he can get to the sticks, if not the end zone. But, man, look at that secondary. I see nothing open at any point. Michael Gallup up top is just bullied right out of bounds. Lamb is jammed up, even with a switch release from Ferguson to help. But, it looks like CeeDee wants a flag (good luck!). By the time Dak escapes, there is no chance to run it in and nothing close to open in the end zone. I don’t mind going for it, but the Cardinals have everything locked down. Dallas is making things look pretty difficult right now.
Turnover on downs.
Trip No. 4 - Failure
4th Quarter, still 21-13.
4Q - 10:39 - 1st and 10 - ARZ 10 - T.Pollard left tackle to ARZ 8 for 2 yards
Allow me to go back to Avezzano and say, the Cardinals are playing great defense and offering some teach tape on how to stop a FB lead. There is just no movement to be found here. Now, your counter as your frustration rises might be, “why are we continuing to run inside on every 1st down?” and I agree. But, the play-sheet shrinks when every run AND every pass looks like the Cardinals are sitting on your ideas before they happen. Dallas has to be concerned about how predictable they appear on this day.
4Q - 10:20 - 2nd and 8 - ARZ 8 - C.Lamb right end to ARZ 8 for no gain
As you can see, now we have pulled out the orbit motion into a speed option pitch from Dak to Lamb. This might be the point in our film session where we concede you might need your big All-Pro linemen back to function. Because this is a concept that makes sense. Split the field into two halves and have a power run and a play in space with your best play-maker. Surely, one of the two will be available. But, here, both look doomed. You are out-flanked on Pollard’s side and Lamb has three guys closing him down and has no chance. No. 97 Cam Thomas is on Dak and then spins to Lamb. No. 7 White is still all over the field like a maniac. And here comes No. 36 Chachere to surround him. The Cardinals are playing faster and now it is starting to get in their heads.
4Q - 9:40 - 3rd and 8 - ARZ 8 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to C.Lamb
This is very straight forward. A seven-man blitz is coming. You motion to clear out and give your best WR a chance to win against a rookie sixth-round corner with no help. Can CeeDee Lamb win against KeiTrel Clark with the game on the line? Lamb doesn’t even come close. He wants the ref to bail him out and doesn’t even try for the ball? I am not sure too many people defend Lamb more than I do, but let’s just say that this is not Dez Bryant on an end zone fade. You must have a “my ball” mentality here and Lamb looks lost. Very disappointing. Maybe even worse than that.
So, you kick to make it 21-16. Amazingly, you are still in it. But, the defense caves and it is now 28-16 when you get your fifth trip in the red zone. There is still time, but not a ton.
Trip No. 5 - Failure
4Q - 4:04 - 1st and Goal - ARZ 5 - T.Pollard up the middle to ARZ 7 for -2 yards
This is a brilliant opportunity to read No. 97 Thomas and slow him down because he is jumping everything. We will not block him, fake to Pollard, keep the ball, and waltz into the end zone. Wait, no? They actually handed it off with an unblocked edge in his lap? What are they doing? This makes no sense. Dak has to keep it. Also, look to the top where a quick throw to Lamb also likely scores. They had three options and the one that the Cardinals had defended is where the ball went. I might need a drink.
If Dak Prescott will not use his legs in the tight red zone, I don’t think they can be successful right now.
4Q - 3:33 - 2nd and Goal - ARZ 7 - T.Pollard left tackle to ARZ 6 for 1 yard
Second down and another inside run that has a chance to be a touchdown. But Jake Ferguson is not getting Cam Thomas blocked on this day. The Cardinals have an edge in Thomas who was so good all day. These tight ends had a rough day. Not sure the experiment is going really well at the position right now with all the young TEs.
4Q - 3:05 - 3rd and Goal - ARZ 6 - D.Prescott pass short middle intended for B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by K.White
From yesterday’s piece: This is the dagger and it shows you all sorts of problems vividly. It shows a 4-man rush to keep Dak in the well and then defend with seven. But, this is man coverage, too, with a middle robber at LB (7-White) and a single-high safety (36-Chachere) who are converging on anything in the middle of the field. White is there also to spy Prescott in the event of a run. The throw here, albeit not terribly open, either, is the slot corner to Lamb to the back pylon against the veteran Marco Wilson. There is a very good chance that the Cardinals specifically want that matchup, but if I am getting ready to dump over $100m on CeeDee Lamb, then he better be able to win a 1-on-1 route like this in the end zone or, as great as he is at times, I still need a No. 1 WR. Lamb must beat Wilson on this play for a touchdown and Dak must give him another opportunity. Instead, Dak either doesn’t mind throwing into a triangle of danger or doesn’t see it. Neither covers him in glory.
End Zone view: This reveals where Dak’s eyes are. All you have to do is look at the stripe on his helmet and see it never moves. He is forcing that ball in there all day long and doesn’t even consider Lamb. Is he annoyed at that fade where Lamb seems to give up? No idea, but he is staring this throw down as if this is his very first rodeo.
Summary: Frustrating as can be. The concepts are at least a little more evident on further review, but you never gained an advantage a against a defense that couldnt stop Daniel Jones the week before. The very real possibility that Amari Cooper, Ezekiel Elliott and yes, maybe even Dalton Schultz were the solution and now you have a bunch of smallish skill guys who are not ideal for the goal-line is right in your face.
The opponents deserve tons of credit, but if you think this is tough, try scoring against the 49ers personnel with this sort of performance.
Mike McCarthy, Brian Schottenheimer, and Dak Prescott need answers for this situation, and fast. Some seem obvious and some seem like they will take some experimentation. Perhaps getting your OL back is one objective, but this seems more than that.
I have never missed Dez Bryant more.
