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Decoding McCarthy – Rushing Game Evaluation
Why the running game isn't working does not have a simple explanation or solution.
BOB STURM
OCT 24, 2023
This past week in the NFL for teams on a bye is when the players get a little relaxation time and perhaps return to their campuses as a hero who is now off in the big leagues making lots of money. They get off their feet (hopefully) and get ready to endure a stretch run that will ask plenty of their bodies.
We planned on a few projects for this bye week, but I will tell you the timing hit in just a spot where we actually were blessed to be able to write plenty of playoff baseball materials and even plan a nice Mavericks essay to open the season. In other words, it has been no rest at all.
But, one thing we have promised that I do want to make sure we deliver on is an honest evaluation of the Cowboys running game and why these last two games have been so difficult to fully comprehend.
I want to discuss each player involved as best we can and then look at some examples of where they are and where they need to be.
To best understand the issues with the Cowboys running game and how we got here, it is best that we rewind back to 2021 and 2022 where the Cowboys run game was very similar to what it is today: Often called but seldom dominating.
In a nutshell, we learned two important elements last week:
1. Dallas leans into its run game at a very high level. It called the second-most runs in the NFL last year behind only Atlanta.
2. The Cowboys were not remarkably effective or efficient in these runs. For the season, they were 21st in Success Rate. This tells us that they had some quality baked in with big moments, but lacked consistency.
It all comes back to the general premise – one that seems to pre-date the current decision makers on headset – that the Cowboys have this big, hulking offensive line and want to run the ball down your throat. They want to dominate you physically and will do it if given the chance.
The biggest issue with this, of course, is that it isn’t 2016 anymore. The offensive line is not dominating, but still have that reputation and paycheck. The stubbornness of the run game is a positive attribute as long as it isn’t hamstringing progress. You should be convicted to do what you believe in, nobody disputes that. But, you cannot be the last to know it is just not happening anymore.
Now, I promise I know that some of you are into advanced analytics, but I think it is important that we leave no Cowboys fan behind, so I want to keep our metrics here pretty basic so everyone can see what we are talking about.
With that in mind, let me tell you that the average running game in the NFL in 2023 is averaging 110 yards per game. And here below is what the Cowboys have been gaining on the ground per game since Ezekiel Elliott was drafted in 2016:
As you can see, that is impressive stuff. Even in their worst season, they are still above “average”, but we should also tell you that average is not what they are trying for. They are trying to be the best rushing team in the NFL and with Miami running for 162 per game, you can see that they aren’t close to that.
But, that is quantity part of it and does not measure quality. If we want running yards, we can keep getting them by calling more bad runs. What we want is quality. And that is best measured in Yards Per Run. Now, again, there are lots of ways to make these numbers a bit more pinpoint and on the money, but in broad terms - where the average NFL run is 4.2 yards, here is why we say this run game is broken right now:
Yikes. Miami is at 6.3 yards per carry and Dallas is down at 3.95 which is the lowest they have had in a long time. Very long. 2012 it turns out.
So, the 2023 run game is officially broken. This probably makes guys who paid for the 2022 run game being broken roll their eyes.
Didn’t we blame Offensive Coordinator Kellen Moore, Offensive Line Coach Joe Philbin, and lead RB Zeke for the run game being so pedestrian? It turns out that they were not bad?
Well, hold on. In our piece about the 2022 running game at the old place, this was covered:
We told you how much the Cowboys love running the ball on first down. The league runs the ball 51.4 percent of the time on first down and Dallas is more than 57 percent. Surely, that is because it is good at it, right?
No. Dallas is 27th in total EPA on first-down runs and 25th in Success Rate. Our friends in Philadelphia were third in EPA and No. 1 in Success Rate on first down.
Why? What caused the Cowboys to be so bad at that? And worse, what caused them to be so stubborn, despite knowing how bad they were at it?
From Nov. 1, as the season was weighing in the balance, the Cowboys’ first-down run rankings in those two important categories were a ridiculous 30th and 29th. The only teams worse at running the ball? Tampa Bay, Tennessee and Houston.
So, we are back in the same spot where we started with a lot of this offense. The offense was broken in 2022 and that necessitated change. Yet, for whatever reason, the changes seem to not be working great.
Kellen Moore has now become Mike McCarthy. The very reputable Joe Philbin has been replaced by the very reputable Mike Solari as offensive line coach. Heck, the plodding Ezekiel Elliott has been replaced by the fleet-of-foot Tony Pollard. Let’s take a look at how what that has done to Pollard’s numbers so far:
This is not great. The first red box shows 3.9 yards a carry from a guy who was always above 5 yards. Then, the larger red box shows his yards per game are down while his attempts per game are up four carries per game!
Oh dear. And, this is a contract year, so you know he isn’t excited about running into trouble when he runs. He is also recovering from that injury in San Francisco.
That is sort of why we are left figuring this all out in the dark. The Cowboys (and every NFL team) has these moving variables that must always be considered. Who is playing each week determines how well we are playing, theoretically. Of course, it is also dependent on your opponent and what your opponent wants to force you to do.
So that takes us down this next path. Here is the starting offensive line in the first six games and you might note that they have run the ball the worst in the two weeks they played the San Francisco defense (Jets and 49ers) and also they have been brutal when they have finally had their offensive line back together.
So, using my film study and some Next Gen/PFF metrics, let’s take a quick look at the names above on an individual basis:
77 - Tyron Smith, Left Tackle - 239 snaps, 67 PFF rushing Grade
For the most part, Tyron has been decent. Now, for a guy who used to be elite in the run game, decent is a significant downgrade. He used to be graded in the 80’s and 90’s, and these two outside zones are where Tyron used to run the league and it just isn’t the same as it once was. Now, to be fair, I am only showing you snaps that I have found to be really bad. Maybe this is unfair, but I just want you to see that everyone is struggling and my favorite guy, Tyron is no different.
Here, he just misses his man and is off balance and the run is destroyed in New York because of it.
This is the first run of the game in Los Angeles. Outside zone to his side and it goes very poorly. Tyron has been fine, but he has also lost some snaps for sure.
71 - Chuma Edoga - Left Tackle and Left Guard - 256 snaps - 59 PFF Rushing Grade
Chuma has been about what you might expect from a backup linemen who has had to play so much in this early going. He is just not much of a starter in this league and lacks the play strength and quickness to hit the standard. It is just the reality of not having your guys on the field. Here are two that are pretty demonstrative of that point.
Above, he is the left guard and Quinnen Williams makes quick work of him on an inside zone.
But, at tackle, he is not quick enough to deal with Matthew Judon. Again, these are really good defenders, but that is the job on Sundays. There is a different beast every week. Judon is too quick.
73 - Tyler Smith, Left Guard - 265 snaps - 91 PFF Grade
Tyler is fantastic. He is their best offensive linemen and if he can stay healthy, they can get going. His bad film this year has been harder to find, but his four holding penalties have him tied for the league lead are not a great result through four starts. Those are absolute drive killers. Must clean that up. Otherwise, the Chargers game was not very good on the ground.
These two plays were on consecutive snaps in the 3rd Quarter:
Not sure if he was dealing with something health-wise in this game, but this one was a struggle.
Here it almost looks like he doesn’t fully know the play. This is as bad a snap as he has had this season. Also, Biadasz was bad here, too.
Again, we aren’t worried about Tyler, but cannot do a hold per game.
63 - Tyler Biadasz, Center - 295 snaps - 63 PFF Rushing Grade
This one is an interesting case. He seems a guy they want to keep, but perhaps borderline. When you watch the tape, the drop off from Travis Frederick to the center position since is significant and I wonder if that is a great place to address. He really struggles with guys on the nose and that is common for centers, but if you want inside zone and duo to be your identity, I just don’t think you can lock him up at this point.
This is what happens when you get zero movement in the middle of the line. Just fully controlled by 92 and 2-gapped.
Double teams with Tyler Smith have not been profitable. Here Javon Hargrave splits them and another run is destroyed.
70 - Zack Martin - Right Guard - 290 snaps - 75 PFF Rushing Grade
The man is royalty. He is in the hall of fame, but like Tyron, he is starting to slide a bit in terms of his run blocking. He used to be the very best and now he is just above average. This league is so hard, so this is not criticism, but it used to be much harder to find snaps where he loses. Also, I am not sure he is fully healthy.
This is a spot where Martin normally gets a push but he gets stalled on a pull on the goal-line. The power just seems a bit down which is consistent with high mileage and a long career.
Again, this is not a brutal loss on this play at all. But, his man normally doesn’t move him aside and make the play over the years. He just isn’t at his normal level right now.
78 - Terence Steele - Right Tackle - 410 snaps - 60 PFF Rushing Grade
Steele was the reason this running game was destroyed in 2022, when he was hurt in December with a significant knee injury. He returned in a hurry which we assume was to get his deal signed and the Cowboys rewarded him with a very nice and well-deserved contract. But, to be fair, this has not been a good season and this is his worst season since his rookie year at the run blocking. He may not be fully fit and we need to show some patience, but this might be the key to getting going. He needs to find his old form. Finding snaps where he is struggling is not difficult right now and he was a top five blocker in 2022 before his injury. The good news is that he has played all of the snaps. The bad news is that they are not great.
We are seeing a lot of all-out whiffs on these plays where his quickness is just betraying him. Again, this is a tough league and he may have hurried back to fast. Not sure.
This is another one where he is off-balance and leaning too far. He isn’t the only player to bust here, of course, but they want to use him as the point of attack as they were last year and it just isn’t there right now.
Ok, that is plenty.
In order of concerns, Biadasz and Steele are pretty high. Tyron and Zack are both still solid, but not as elite. And Tyler is great if he will stop holding guys. The tight ends are inconsistent, but I think Jake Ferguson and Luke Schoonmaker are both going to be just fine in blocking.
Also, I am not convinced Tony Pollard is a real issue. But, I do like Rico Dowdle and would like to see more.
Overall, coming out of the bye week, I need more from the play-calling to make sure they aren’t being stubborn, because this hurts your pass game to always leave them with 3rd and 11.
They need much more, but there is hope. At the same time, when you blame the play-calling or the offensive line coach, you are over-looking the 100 reps of bad tape. I can do this all day, but the general point is that there is not one reason this team cannot run the ball. Instead, as always is the case, this sport reveals that it is always something different from play to play and game to game.
Simple solutions? There are none. Just keep cleaning things up and getting better at each spot. Yes, certain concepts do work better than others, but they just haven’t been where they need to be in many spots. It looks like they have not had continuity and although their first few games back have been depressing, I think the path is to keep going in this direction and let them find their sea legs into November.
Thoughts?
Why the running game isn't working does not have a simple explanation or solution.
BOB STURM
OCT 24, 2023
This past week in the NFL for teams on a bye is when the players get a little relaxation time and perhaps return to their campuses as a hero who is now off in the big leagues making lots of money. They get off their feet (hopefully) and get ready to endure a stretch run that will ask plenty of their bodies.
We planned on a few projects for this bye week, but I will tell you the timing hit in just a spot where we actually were blessed to be able to write plenty of playoff baseball materials and even plan a nice Mavericks essay to open the season. In other words, it has been no rest at all.
But, one thing we have promised that I do want to make sure we deliver on is an honest evaluation of the Cowboys running game and why these last two games have been so difficult to fully comprehend.
I want to discuss each player involved as best we can and then look at some examples of where they are and where they need to be.
To best understand the issues with the Cowboys running game and how we got here, it is best that we rewind back to 2021 and 2022 where the Cowboys run game was very similar to what it is today: Often called but seldom dominating.
In a nutshell, we learned two important elements last week:
1. Dallas leans into its run game at a very high level. It called the second-most runs in the NFL last year behind only Atlanta.
2. The Cowboys were not remarkably effective or efficient in these runs. For the season, they were 21st in Success Rate. This tells us that they had some quality baked in with big moments, but lacked consistency.
It all comes back to the general premise – one that seems to pre-date the current decision makers on headset – that the Cowboys have this big, hulking offensive line and want to run the ball down your throat. They want to dominate you physically and will do it if given the chance.
The biggest issue with this, of course, is that it isn’t 2016 anymore. The offensive line is not dominating, but still have that reputation and paycheck. The stubbornness of the run game is a positive attribute as long as it isn’t hamstringing progress. You should be convicted to do what you believe in, nobody disputes that. But, you cannot be the last to know it is just not happening anymore.
Now, I promise I know that some of you are into advanced analytics, but I think it is important that we leave no Cowboys fan behind, so I want to keep our metrics here pretty basic so everyone can see what we are talking about.
With that in mind, let me tell you that the average running game in the NFL in 2023 is averaging 110 yards per game. And here below is what the Cowboys have been gaining on the ground per game since Ezekiel Elliott was drafted in 2016:
As you can see, that is impressive stuff. Even in their worst season, they are still above “average”, but we should also tell you that average is not what they are trying for. They are trying to be the best rushing team in the NFL and with Miami running for 162 per game, you can see that they aren’t close to that.
But, that is quantity part of it and does not measure quality. If we want running yards, we can keep getting them by calling more bad runs. What we want is quality. And that is best measured in Yards Per Run. Now, again, there are lots of ways to make these numbers a bit more pinpoint and on the money, but in broad terms - where the average NFL run is 4.2 yards, here is why we say this run game is broken right now:
Yikes. Miami is at 6.3 yards per carry and Dallas is down at 3.95 which is the lowest they have had in a long time. Very long. 2012 it turns out.
So, the 2023 run game is officially broken. This probably makes guys who paid for the 2022 run game being broken roll their eyes.
Didn’t we blame Offensive Coordinator Kellen Moore, Offensive Line Coach Joe Philbin, and lead RB Zeke for the run game being so pedestrian? It turns out that they were not bad?
Well, hold on. In our piece about the 2022 running game at the old place, this was covered:
We told you how much the Cowboys love running the ball on first down. The league runs the ball 51.4 percent of the time on first down and Dallas is more than 57 percent. Surely, that is because it is good at it, right?
No. Dallas is 27th in total EPA on first-down runs and 25th in Success Rate. Our friends in Philadelphia were third in EPA and No. 1 in Success Rate on first down.
Why? What caused the Cowboys to be so bad at that? And worse, what caused them to be so stubborn, despite knowing how bad they were at it?
From Nov. 1, as the season was weighing in the balance, the Cowboys’ first-down run rankings in those two important categories were a ridiculous 30th and 29th. The only teams worse at running the ball? Tampa Bay, Tennessee and Houston.
So, we are back in the same spot where we started with a lot of this offense. The offense was broken in 2022 and that necessitated change. Yet, for whatever reason, the changes seem to not be working great.
Kellen Moore has now become Mike McCarthy. The very reputable Joe Philbin has been replaced by the very reputable Mike Solari as offensive line coach. Heck, the plodding Ezekiel Elliott has been replaced by the fleet-of-foot Tony Pollard. Let’s take a look at how what that has done to Pollard’s numbers so far:
This is not great. The first red box shows 3.9 yards a carry from a guy who was always above 5 yards. Then, the larger red box shows his yards per game are down while his attempts per game are up four carries per game!
Oh dear. And, this is a contract year, so you know he isn’t excited about running into trouble when he runs. He is also recovering from that injury in San Francisco.
That is sort of why we are left figuring this all out in the dark. The Cowboys (and every NFL team) has these moving variables that must always be considered. Who is playing each week determines how well we are playing, theoretically. Of course, it is also dependent on your opponent and what your opponent wants to force you to do.
So that takes us down this next path. Here is the starting offensive line in the first six games and you might note that they have run the ball the worst in the two weeks they played the San Francisco defense (Jets and 49ers) and also they have been brutal when they have finally had their offensive line back together.
So, using my film study and some Next Gen/PFF metrics, let’s take a quick look at the names above on an individual basis:
77 - Tyron Smith, Left Tackle - 239 snaps, 67 PFF rushing Grade
For the most part, Tyron has been decent. Now, for a guy who used to be elite in the run game, decent is a significant downgrade. He used to be graded in the 80’s and 90’s, and these two outside zones are where Tyron used to run the league and it just isn’t the same as it once was. Now, to be fair, I am only showing you snaps that I have found to be really bad. Maybe this is unfair, but I just want you to see that everyone is struggling and my favorite guy, Tyron is no different.
Here, he just misses his man and is off balance and the run is destroyed in New York because of it.
This is the first run of the game in Los Angeles. Outside zone to his side and it goes very poorly. Tyron has been fine, but he has also lost some snaps for sure.
71 - Chuma Edoga - Left Tackle and Left Guard - 256 snaps - 59 PFF Rushing Grade
Chuma has been about what you might expect from a backup linemen who has had to play so much in this early going. He is just not much of a starter in this league and lacks the play strength and quickness to hit the standard. It is just the reality of not having your guys on the field. Here are two that are pretty demonstrative of that point.
Above, he is the left guard and Quinnen Williams makes quick work of him on an inside zone.
But, at tackle, he is not quick enough to deal with Matthew Judon. Again, these are really good defenders, but that is the job on Sundays. There is a different beast every week. Judon is too quick.
73 - Tyler Smith, Left Guard - 265 snaps - 91 PFF Grade
Tyler is fantastic. He is their best offensive linemen and if he can stay healthy, they can get going. His bad film this year has been harder to find, but his four holding penalties have him tied for the league lead are not a great result through four starts. Those are absolute drive killers. Must clean that up. Otherwise, the Chargers game was not very good on the ground.
These two plays were on consecutive snaps in the 3rd Quarter:
Not sure if he was dealing with something health-wise in this game, but this one was a struggle.
Here it almost looks like he doesn’t fully know the play. This is as bad a snap as he has had this season. Also, Biadasz was bad here, too.
Again, we aren’t worried about Tyler, but cannot do a hold per game.
63 - Tyler Biadasz, Center - 295 snaps - 63 PFF Rushing Grade
This one is an interesting case. He seems a guy they want to keep, but perhaps borderline. When you watch the tape, the drop off from Travis Frederick to the center position since is significant and I wonder if that is a great place to address. He really struggles with guys on the nose and that is common for centers, but if you want inside zone and duo to be your identity, I just don’t think you can lock him up at this point.
This is what happens when you get zero movement in the middle of the line. Just fully controlled by 92 and 2-gapped.
Double teams with Tyler Smith have not been profitable. Here Javon Hargrave splits them and another run is destroyed.
70 - Zack Martin - Right Guard - 290 snaps - 75 PFF Rushing Grade
The man is royalty. He is in the hall of fame, but like Tyron, he is starting to slide a bit in terms of his run blocking. He used to be the very best and now he is just above average. This league is so hard, so this is not criticism, but it used to be much harder to find snaps where he loses. Also, I am not sure he is fully healthy.
This is a spot where Martin normally gets a push but he gets stalled on a pull on the goal-line. The power just seems a bit down which is consistent with high mileage and a long career.
Again, this is not a brutal loss on this play at all. But, his man normally doesn’t move him aside and make the play over the years. He just isn’t at his normal level right now.
78 - Terence Steele - Right Tackle - 410 snaps - 60 PFF Rushing Grade
Steele was the reason this running game was destroyed in 2022, when he was hurt in December with a significant knee injury. He returned in a hurry which we assume was to get his deal signed and the Cowboys rewarded him with a very nice and well-deserved contract. But, to be fair, this has not been a good season and this is his worst season since his rookie year at the run blocking. He may not be fully fit and we need to show some patience, but this might be the key to getting going. He needs to find his old form. Finding snaps where he is struggling is not difficult right now and he was a top five blocker in 2022 before his injury. The good news is that he has played all of the snaps. The bad news is that they are not great.
We are seeing a lot of all-out whiffs on these plays where his quickness is just betraying him. Again, this is a tough league and he may have hurried back to fast. Not sure.
This is another one where he is off-balance and leaning too far. He isn’t the only player to bust here, of course, but they want to use him as the point of attack as they were last year and it just isn’t there right now.
Ok, that is plenty.
In order of concerns, Biadasz and Steele are pretty high. Tyron and Zack are both still solid, but not as elite. And Tyler is great if he will stop holding guys. The tight ends are inconsistent, but I think Jake Ferguson and Luke Schoonmaker are both going to be just fine in blocking.
Also, I am not convinced Tony Pollard is a real issue. But, I do like Rico Dowdle and would like to see more.
Overall, coming out of the bye week, I need more from the play-calling to make sure they aren’t being stubborn, because this hurts your pass game to always leave them with 3rd and 11.
They need much more, but there is hope. At the same time, when you blame the play-calling or the offensive line coach, you are over-looking the 100 reps of bad tape. I can do this all day, but the general point is that there is not one reason this team cannot run the ball. Instead, as always is the case, this sport reveals that it is always something different from play to play and game to game.
Simple solutions? There are none. Just keep cleaning things up and getting better at each spot. Yes, certain concepts do work better than others, but they just haven’t been where they need to be in many spots. It looks like they have not had continuity and although their first few games back have been depressing, I think the path is to keep going in this direction and let them find their sea legs into November.
Thoughts?
