dpf1123
DCC 4Life
- Joined
- Apr 8, 2013
- Messages
- 2,173
Cowboys Morning, Week 3: The Humbling
Another trip out to Arizona reminds Dallas of the "Any Given Sunday" rule
BOB STURM
SEP 25, 2023
You would have thought the Dallas Cowboys had won 22 straight games and were coming off a Super Bowl victory into 2023 with the way that people were talking about the test in Arizona last week. There was a virtual certainty that they would be 4-0 when they went to San Francisco in two weeks, so let’s just hurry up and get to that game to find out if the Cowboys are better than the team that has eliminated them in the 2021 and 2022 playoffs.
But, that is not how this league works and frankly, in retrospect, we probably should have seen it coming. Dallas beat both teams from New York in dominating fashion in the first two weeks by the final score of 70-10. That led to hours upon hours of praise and adoration to pump the tires of just how good they really were. Might they be a Super Bowl caliber team? Might they be the best defense in Cowboys history?
How about we require them to play at least a month before they are crowned?
Arizona must have had quite a laugh by the end of the afternoon as they tested the Cowboys defense to see if they were ready to stop a mid-tier rushing attack aimed right at them. They understood that Dallas has a great formula for playing with the lead, but what if you make them actually defend and play from behind a bit? Would things go the same way if the Cowboys defense were not leading the dance, but following? Could the Dan Quinn’s crew limit the Arizona Cardinals offense without Kyler Murray to less than seven different explosive plays – including five 20+ yard runs?
We now know the answer and it is not a fun one to reconcile.
But, if the defense needed some assistance this week, surely, the offense carry the mail against a defense without its talisman, Budda Baker. The Giants demonstrated the ease of scoring in this stadium against this Cardinals defense in Week 2. Perhaps we would see sort of the opposite of the Wk 1 Cowboys and Giants game, when the offense could have sat in the crowd and the game would have been won, but flipped around. Maybe this would be the game where the Dak Prescott-led attack that looked so potent at home could take this group on the road and have answers for all of the questions? Could they methodically use their weapons and put the ball in the end-zone repeatedly to prove that the offense is just as capable as the defense?
Again, the answer is a reality check of the highest order.
Dallas was able to score one touchdown on Sunday on a throw behind the line of scrimmage. That was the sum total of their five trips into the red zone as moving the ball up and down the field was not difficult. But, what has become difficult is maintaining the execution of the offense when the field shrinks and everything happens faster. Despite leading the entire NFL in red zone TD percentages in 2021-22 over a span of 34 games, the failure to demonstrate that on Sunday is quite clearly what got them beat.
From 2021-22, Dallas is ranked 1st in the NFL in RZTD%, Courtesy TruMedia
As you can see, that same ranking in 2023 is now going to properly be the talk of the town until it returns to its previous status. You never want to be ranked 1st in red zone field goals, but Dallas is tops in the league in both red zone drive opportunities and red zone field goals.
2023, Dallas is ranked 27th in the NFL in RZTD%, Courtesy TruMedia
The theme on Sunday is pretty plain and simple. Dallas played a very poor game of football that many of us feel like we have seen a hundred times following this franchise. The names change, but the entire recipe was there:
This is the dagger and it shows you all sorts of problems vividly. It shows a 4-man rush to keep Dak in the well and then defend with seven. But, this is man coverage, too with a middle robber at LB (7-White) and a single-high safety (36-Chachere) who are converging on anything in the middle of the field. White is there also to spy Prescott in the event of a run. The throw here, albeit not terribly open, either, is the slot corner to Lamb to the back pylon against the veteran Marco Wilson. There is a very good chance that the Cardinals specifically want that matchup, but if I am getting ready to dump over $100m on CeeDee Lamb, then he better be able to win a 1-on-1 route like this in the end zone or, as great as he is at times, I still need a No. 1 WR. Lamb must beat Wilson on this play for a touchdown and Dak must give him another opportunity. Instead, Dak either doesn’t mind throwing into a triangle of danger or doesn’t see it. Neither covers him in glory.
I know that play above will get a lot of talk this week and I would certainly be hypocritical to suggest I won’t be part of that talk.
But, that isn’t why we are talking about this loss today. At that point, the Cowboys were in desperation mode and were at a 10% win probability with 3:05 to play. That result took them down to a 1% chance, but again, the horses were already out of the barn.
The game was lost because of how they were in that spot to begin with. That is because this entire operation played the 1st half as if the Cardinals were not worthy of their full respect and attention. Now, we have to be fair and suggest that the Dallas Cowboys are not close to a contender if they don’t have Zack Martin, Tyron Smith, and Tyler Biadasz on their offensive line. Tyler Smith was finally returning and then three other OL starters fell off and were unable to play in a game where we almost wonder about the staff being naive and exercising extreme health caution in a perceived mismatch. I certainly have no inside knowledge of that except to say the tone of the week did not exhibit a real concern about playing Arizona without Kyler Murray and Budda Baker.
Either way, that would put Chuma Edoga at left tackle (interesting to not leave Edoga at left guard and return Tyler Smith to left tackle, but it did seem they wanted to run behind Tyler all day and that works best at LG), Brock Hoffman at center, and TJ Bass at right guard in a real NFL road game. Instantly, you could see the theme of the day was to run the ball and when passing, to get the ball out very quickly. Arizona understands this and realizes that Dallas wants to play it close to the vest. Therefore they pick spots to turn the screws and shrink the field with frustrating coverages designed to limit all big plays. They did as Dallas went to the half with zero explosive plays and down, 21-10.
And how in the world are you down, 21-10 at the half? Because the vaunted defense – the one that people like yours truly has suggested lacks any apparent weaknesses – looked like the team that we saw in 2022. The one that could not stop the run at times – at Jacksonville, at Green Bay, Chicago – and allowed seven opponents to run for over 140 yards, allowed 222 on the ground which exceeds every Quinn game in Dallas but the Chicago game of last year. 44 yards on a Josh Dobbs keeper to start things set the tone and they kept running all day. James Conner still is a guy you better be ready to deal with and Dallas allowed him 116 yards on 16 touches for 7.25 a touch. Gross. WR Rondale Moore’s 45-yard touchdown as he lined up as a RB.
Arizona went field goal, touchdown, touchdown, field goal, and field goal on five drives that encompassed the entire first half. Are you kidding me? They had the ball five times with no better field position than their own 29-yard line and this ancestor of the Doomsday defense never mixed in a single stop the entire time? No takeaways on the day and while they were credited with two sacks, the first was very much a Dobbs keeper on a zone read that DeMarcus Lawrence was credited. I submit that Micah Parsons had the only actual sack on a passing play and one sack with zero takeaways is not nearly enough from a defense that is thinking there is nobody better in the league.
If you read me regularly, and I thank you for doing so, you know that I am not the type of guy to knee-jerk off the road on a Week 3 road game like this. I thought the point spread was ridiculous this week and if you read the pregame Three Thoughts piece, you know I am aware of how “crazy things always happen” in this building, it seems. This loss is not the end of the world, nor is it a clear indicator that this team can’t be very good by the end of 2023.
This is the NFL and the fact is that “Any Given Sunday” is a well-known cliche because it is true and a clear separator from Saturdays. The college game has its great components, but true competitive balance is not one of them. Upsets exist but are very seldom seen because the talent on one sideline is several tiers from the other. And they like it that way because the worst case scenario for the big boys is usually an eight-win season that keeps the alumni engaged. But, the NFL has no such division of strength. There are fewer than 2,000 men between the ages of 21-40 that play this sport at the highest level and divided into 32 franchises on this planet. That is it. So, if you take any game lightly, the ramifications are much more severe than in college games. If you wait to start playing until halftime, it is going to be too late. Arizona had an 11-point lead and only needed to two plays in the 2nd half; a blown coverage that left Michael Wilson wide open for 69 yards and Dak throwing into triple coverage in the end zone.
The damage had already been done when the defense did not have their act together on numerous assignment busts and the offense wasted drive after drive by settling for field goals. You simply cannot enter the red zone five times and leave with 13 points. That is absolutely unacceptable on every level.
Credit Jonathan Gannon for his first NFL coaching win and a game-plan where he wanted to make the Cowboys uncomfortable and see how they would respond.
Blame Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys for not responding to being made uncomfortable with some calm and reasonable adjustments before taking over the game and restoring order. They were beaten over 60 minutes in a way that should get their attention now that there are no games that should be taken lightly. No attention to detail that doesn’t require your full focus, either.
The Cowboys should be better than losing a game by two scores in which you are favored by two scores. They should be able to handle a little adversity and over the course of the game still figure out how to leave with a hard-fought victory.
But, they weren’t better. They looked like they were overhyped again and unable to live up to their promise. They can blame the hype if they want, but in reality, they must blame themselves.
Simply not good enough from a team that got ahead of itself again. Instead of worrying about playoff seeding and how they measure up with Philadelphia and San Francisco, they better make sure they give their next opponent their complete and undivided attention.
Let’s hope it is a lesson learned. Because that was brutal.
Another trip out to Arizona reminds Dallas of the "Any Given Sunday" rule
BOB STURM
SEP 25, 2023
You would have thought the Dallas Cowboys had won 22 straight games and were coming off a Super Bowl victory into 2023 with the way that people were talking about the test in Arizona last week. There was a virtual certainty that they would be 4-0 when they went to San Francisco in two weeks, so let’s just hurry up and get to that game to find out if the Cowboys are better than the team that has eliminated them in the 2021 and 2022 playoffs.
But, that is not how this league works and frankly, in retrospect, we probably should have seen it coming. Dallas beat both teams from New York in dominating fashion in the first two weeks by the final score of 70-10. That led to hours upon hours of praise and adoration to pump the tires of just how good they really were. Might they be a Super Bowl caliber team? Might they be the best defense in Cowboys history?
How about we require them to play at least a month before they are crowned?
Arizona must have had quite a laugh by the end of the afternoon as they tested the Cowboys defense to see if they were ready to stop a mid-tier rushing attack aimed right at them. They understood that Dallas has a great formula for playing with the lead, but what if you make them actually defend and play from behind a bit? Would things go the same way if the Cowboys defense were not leading the dance, but following? Could the Dan Quinn’s crew limit the Arizona Cardinals offense without Kyler Murray to less than seven different explosive plays – including five 20+ yard runs?
We now know the answer and it is not a fun one to reconcile.
But, if the defense needed some assistance this week, surely, the offense carry the mail against a defense without its talisman, Budda Baker. The Giants demonstrated the ease of scoring in this stadium against this Cardinals defense in Week 2. Perhaps we would see sort of the opposite of the Wk 1 Cowboys and Giants game, when the offense could have sat in the crowd and the game would have been won, but flipped around. Maybe this would be the game where the Dak Prescott-led attack that looked so potent at home could take this group on the road and have answers for all of the questions? Could they methodically use their weapons and put the ball in the end-zone repeatedly to prove that the offense is just as capable as the defense?
Again, the answer is a reality check of the highest order.
Dallas was able to score one touchdown on Sunday on a throw behind the line of scrimmage. That was the sum total of their five trips into the red zone as moving the ball up and down the field was not difficult. But, what has become difficult is maintaining the execution of the offense when the field shrinks and everything happens faster. Despite leading the entire NFL in red zone TD percentages in 2021-22 over a span of 34 games, the failure to demonstrate that on Sunday is quite clearly what got them beat.
From 2021-22, Dallas is ranked 1st in the NFL in RZTD%, Courtesy TruMedia
As you can see, that same ranking in 2023 is now going to properly be the talk of the town until it returns to its previous status. You never want to be ranked 1st in red zone field goals, but Dallas is tops in the league in both red zone drive opportunities and red zone field goals.
2023, Dallas is ranked 27th in the NFL in RZTD%, Courtesy TruMedia
The theme on Sunday is pretty plain and simple. Dallas played a very poor game of football that many of us feel like we have seen a hundred times following this franchise. The names change, but the entire recipe was there:
- Over 100 yards in penalties (13-107).
- Poor assignment defense in stopping explosive run plays from the opening kick.
- A complete disappearance of takeaways.
- Wasted possessions on offense with 400+ yards for only one touchdown.
- And yes, a completely reeled in offensive game-plan where they lose all the creativity credibility from the week before and call a very basic offensive attack.
- Also, yes, your QB with a critical mistake that ends your chances with a pick.
This is the dagger and it shows you all sorts of problems vividly. It shows a 4-man rush to keep Dak in the well and then defend with seven. But, this is man coverage, too with a middle robber at LB (7-White) and a single-high safety (36-Chachere) who are converging on anything in the middle of the field. White is there also to spy Prescott in the event of a run. The throw here, albeit not terribly open, either, is the slot corner to Lamb to the back pylon against the veteran Marco Wilson. There is a very good chance that the Cardinals specifically want that matchup, but if I am getting ready to dump over $100m on CeeDee Lamb, then he better be able to win a 1-on-1 route like this in the end zone or, as great as he is at times, I still need a No. 1 WR. Lamb must beat Wilson on this play for a touchdown and Dak must give him another opportunity. Instead, Dak either doesn’t mind throwing into a triangle of danger or doesn’t see it. Neither covers him in glory.
I know that play above will get a lot of talk this week and I would certainly be hypocritical to suggest I won’t be part of that talk.
But, that isn’t why we are talking about this loss today. At that point, the Cowboys were in desperation mode and were at a 10% win probability with 3:05 to play. That result took them down to a 1% chance, but again, the horses were already out of the barn.
The game was lost because of how they were in that spot to begin with. That is because this entire operation played the 1st half as if the Cardinals were not worthy of their full respect and attention. Now, we have to be fair and suggest that the Dallas Cowboys are not close to a contender if they don’t have Zack Martin, Tyron Smith, and Tyler Biadasz on their offensive line. Tyler Smith was finally returning and then three other OL starters fell off and were unable to play in a game where we almost wonder about the staff being naive and exercising extreme health caution in a perceived mismatch. I certainly have no inside knowledge of that except to say the tone of the week did not exhibit a real concern about playing Arizona without Kyler Murray and Budda Baker.
Either way, that would put Chuma Edoga at left tackle (interesting to not leave Edoga at left guard and return Tyler Smith to left tackle, but it did seem they wanted to run behind Tyler all day and that works best at LG), Brock Hoffman at center, and TJ Bass at right guard in a real NFL road game. Instantly, you could see the theme of the day was to run the ball and when passing, to get the ball out very quickly. Arizona understands this and realizes that Dallas wants to play it close to the vest. Therefore they pick spots to turn the screws and shrink the field with frustrating coverages designed to limit all big plays. They did as Dallas went to the half with zero explosive plays and down, 21-10.
And how in the world are you down, 21-10 at the half? Because the vaunted defense – the one that people like yours truly has suggested lacks any apparent weaknesses – looked like the team that we saw in 2022. The one that could not stop the run at times – at Jacksonville, at Green Bay, Chicago – and allowed seven opponents to run for over 140 yards, allowed 222 on the ground which exceeds every Quinn game in Dallas but the Chicago game of last year. 44 yards on a Josh Dobbs keeper to start things set the tone and they kept running all day. James Conner still is a guy you better be ready to deal with and Dallas allowed him 116 yards on 16 touches for 7.25 a touch. Gross. WR Rondale Moore’s 45-yard touchdown as he lined up as a RB.
Arizona went field goal, touchdown, touchdown, field goal, and field goal on five drives that encompassed the entire first half. Are you kidding me? They had the ball five times with no better field position than their own 29-yard line and this ancestor of the Doomsday defense never mixed in a single stop the entire time? No takeaways on the day and while they were credited with two sacks, the first was very much a Dobbs keeper on a zone read that DeMarcus Lawrence was credited. I submit that Micah Parsons had the only actual sack on a passing play and one sack with zero takeaways is not nearly enough from a defense that is thinking there is nobody better in the league.
If you read me regularly, and I thank you for doing so, you know that I am not the type of guy to knee-jerk off the road on a Week 3 road game like this. I thought the point spread was ridiculous this week and if you read the pregame Three Thoughts piece, you know I am aware of how “crazy things always happen” in this building, it seems. This loss is not the end of the world, nor is it a clear indicator that this team can’t be very good by the end of 2023.
This is the NFL and the fact is that “Any Given Sunday” is a well-known cliche because it is true and a clear separator from Saturdays. The college game has its great components, but true competitive balance is not one of them. Upsets exist but are very seldom seen because the talent on one sideline is several tiers from the other. And they like it that way because the worst case scenario for the big boys is usually an eight-win season that keeps the alumni engaged. But, the NFL has no such division of strength. There are fewer than 2,000 men between the ages of 21-40 that play this sport at the highest level and divided into 32 franchises on this planet. That is it. So, if you take any game lightly, the ramifications are much more severe than in college games. If you wait to start playing until halftime, it is going to be too late. Arizona had an 11-point lead and only needed to two plays in the 2nd half; a blown coverage that left Michael Wilson wide open for 69 yards and Dak throwing into triple coverage in the end zone.
The damage had already been done when the defense did not have their act together on numerous assignment busts and the offense wasted drive after drive by settling for field goals. You simply cannot enter the red zone five times and leave with 13 points. That is absolutely unacceptable on every level.
Credit Jonathan Gannon for his first NFL coaching win and a game-plan where he wanted to make the Cowboys uncomfortable and see how they would respond.
Blame Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys for not responding to being made uncomfortable with some calm and reasonable adjustments before taking over the game and restoring order. They were beaten over 60 minutes in a way that should get their attention now that there are no games that should be taken lightly. No attention to detail that doesn’t require your full focus, either.
The Cowboys should be better than losing a game by two scores in which you are favored by two scores. They should be able to handle a little adversity and over the course of the game still figure out how to leave with a hard-fought victory.
But, they weren’t better. They looked like they were overhyped again and unable to live up to their promise. They can blame the hype if they want, but in reality, they must blame themselves.
Simply not good enough from a team that got ahead of itself again. Instead of worrying about playoff seeding and how they measure up with Philadelphia and San Francisco, they better make sure they give their next opponent their complete and undivided attention.
Let’s hope it is a lesson learned. Because that was brutal.
