2024 Season | Week 14 | Gameday Chatter Thread | Bengals @ Cowboys | 12/8/2024

Cowboysrock55

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If they pump it up like they did in the playoffs that's one thing, but if this caliber of play continues into the playoffs they aren't going anywhere.
It's funny to think Chiefs and defense carrying them but that offense just has not gotten in a groove.
 

dpf1123

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Cowboys Pregame Three Thoughts: Week 14
The Bengals come to town as Dallas starts final stretch of games to decide futures.

Bob Sturm
Dec 09, 2024



Monday Night Football was certainly delighted to be able to get an early December “Clash of the Titans” affair on their schedule last spring when they snapped up the opportunity to get Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals taking on Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys.
Things have a way of changing by the end of a season and tonight will definitely provide a football game for us to witness, but if we seek “titans of the sport to do battle for high stakes”, well that will require us to look elsewhere.

There is no joy in Cincinnati or Dallas this year as the combined records of 9-15 will attest. Things have gone wrong. Very wrong. We will resist drawing too many conclusions about how both of these teams have experienced such poor years after they both had some success for a while, but you can’t help but notice.

Dallas had gone 12-5, 12-5, and 12-5 before arriving where they are today – a spot that seems to be destined to finish under .500 as their final three opponents all have something to play for and the Cowboys will not.

Meanwhile, the Bengals are “wasting Joe Burrow’s prime” which amazingly tomorrow morning, he will have his 28th birthday. Time flies while you are having fun, I guess, because we see him as being just a baby, but remember, he was an old prospect and is wrapping up his 5th season in the NFL this month.

They went to the Super Bowl – and probably should have won it – in his 2nd season and then the AFC Championship Game in his 3rd season. But, they missed the playoffs last year and will miss them again this year and now we find out if they can put a team around a QB who is making a ton of money.

Sound familiar?

I cannot resist telling you what else they have in common:

They are the only two teams who have a GM who cannot get fired.

Jerry Jones installed himself in 1989. Mike Brown, son of Paul Brown, installed himself in 1991. Jones is now 82 years old and Brown is 89. Jones has Will McClay and Brown has Duke Tobin, so they definitely have the ability to gain assistance when required, but only two organizations have the inability to fire the GM when things go bad – like 2024 has.

These two.

Anytime you can see the “longest-tenured GM’s list”, you see that those two chaps have reigned supreme at a rate that seems like they must be the best two team-builders ever. In reality, they are just the two that cannot be fired.


What does this team us? It teaches us to try to born into a rich family, if at all possible. I am told that helps one design the world to their specific terms and these two men will tell you that it has pleased them greatly to answer to nobody.

I believe their customers might have a different impression, but I digress.

Let’s get to this game where Dallas plays for the first time since Thanksgiving, so they are clearly the more rested team
:


The final game on the Week 14 docket goes tonight at 7:15 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington and ESPN is going to spruce things up with their Simpsons-themed telecast that I believe you can see on Disney Plus. However, I assume the target market audience for a Simpsons broadcast is probably not the target audience for SturmStack, so I will likely not spend much more virtual ink on that. If that is your thing, please do enjoy.

However, these are my Cowboys-Bengals PreGame Three Thoughts:

– My first thought is going to suggest these final five games for me will have almost nothing to do with the opponent. For me, coming off 11 days of rest and a de facto bye week, the remaining month will inform us about who is part of the mix for 2025 and who is playing their final stretch of football in a Dallas Cowboys uniform.


Often, NFL players will tell you this is a dream job and we know they are right. Who amongst us didn’t wish to be a professional athlete when we grew up? However, there rare many aspects of the job that are not always fun and games. In fact, most of football is a very serious profession and can take quite a toll. But, in this case, I think it is fair to operate under the idea that we have decisions to make. Decisions that will require football players to understand they are being watched, monitored, graded, and evaluated because I believe the 2025 team will look a lot different than the 2024 team.

So, with a team now rested and clear about what they have left to do, I think it is reasonable to state that jobs are on the line – mostly because the season is not. So, let’s take a quick look at the Ourlads.com depth chart to see who the UFA’s are and we will circle them in red.

First, the offense:


As you can see there, the spine of this offense is under contract, but there are some out-going issues to address. In particular, WR, RB, and backup QB.

Now, the defense:


The defense is more complex - especially when you consider that DeMarcus Lawrence is probably one of the first decisions you have to make. But, holy heck, if you allow Golston, Odighizuwa, Lawrence, Joseph, Watkins, and Lawson to all walk out that door, the amount of bodies you have left on the defensive front will tell you where every single resource probably needs to go this spring.

I know Sam Williams and Marshawn Kneeland are back and Mazi Smith is slowly improving, but that leaves Micah Parsons and tumbleweeds.

I do this exercise so those of us who are of the hardcore football nerd variety are locked in on what is at stake over the last month. We have to look at these red squares and start making decisions on anyone we want to pull aside and getting something easy done for 2025-26 right now. For instance, Rico Dowdle is a guy I would love to do something easy with. Osa Odighizuwa is a guy I never want to lose, but his price might force that. Of course, maybe a conversation can sort that even now.

But, we have to know where we stand on every guy in those red boxes, so that is my top priority right now.

To the game itself, let’s look at each side of the ball.

When Dallas has the ball:


–I think the key to this game and to my principle objectives for the remainder of 2024 is to get back to running the ball with effectiveness on the back of Rico Dowdle and this offensive line. For the last five games, Dallas has run the ball well. Continuing down this path is the only way to push back into the contenders bin in 2025.

Don’t get me wrong, Dallas has not run the ball well at all this season. But, I do think the Atlanta game until now – 511 yards in five games – shows us an offense that can finally get to 100 yards each week on the ground. When you consider they were below 80 in the first two months – when they insisted on the 50/50 Dowdle/Zeke job share, this thing was doomed.


But, now, coming off 122 yards and 4.7 per carry, we are seeing an offensive line that looks the part and should be established tonight against a Bengals team that doesn’t deal with it very well.

So, yes, run the rock. Run some clock. Try to keep Joe Burrow and his mates off the field. Also, try to keep Trey Hendrickson from ruining Chuma Edoga at left tackle. Watch No. 91 below just destroy the Raiders a few weeks back. This tape is hilariously impressive as he just hammers the blindside of the QB over and over again.

Mickey Loomis doesn’t screw up much, but letting Hendrickson get out of New Orleans was a massive mistake. He has 51 sacks in Cincinnati in four seasons and there is still a month left. Beware of 91.


Otherwise, it is a bad defense. And that makes for a matchup with a pretty bad Cowboys offense – especially one that probably should tell CeeDee Lamb to go get his shoulder right and to stop playing with one arm at this point of a lost season. He has earned a ton of respect from me this year in the way he has keep fighting, but at some point I would recommend you take his helmet away.

The offense tonight needs to run the ball, then run screens and misdirection off of those runs with quick outs to Kavontae Turpin and Brandin Cooks, with tight ends down the seam. I think they will want to use more Jonathan Mingo and Jalen Tolbert to add to the run game as well and get more physical downfield.

Make this a Cooper Rush recipe and we will continue to be on the lookout for any signs that Trey Lance will step on the field. But, at this point, having won two straight, I think Dallas will be trying to win this one so don’t expect much from Lance.

Ok, let’s flip it to the scary part.

When The Bengals have the ball:


– To me, the defense looks like itself again. But, this is the true test. Joe Burrow and his receivers trying to attack the middle of the Cowboys defense will give us a real feeling for where this group is. If Micah Parsons and DeMarvion Overshown can cause some havoc tonight, they should be very pleased with themselves.

This is going to be a wonderful matchup. Let me show you:
Dialing Up 3rd Down Blitzes - The Dallas Cowboys are one of only 2 teams to pressure opposing quarterbacks on over half of their 3rd down dropbacks, doing so 50.9% of the time. This due in part to generating the highest pressure rate when blitzing (50.0%) and the 5th-highest 3rd down blitz rate (41.7%) in the NFL. Matchup: Since entering the league in 2020, Joe Burrow has recorded a success rate of 48.3% against third down blitzes, the 3rd-highest among 46 quarterbacks to face at least 50 3rd down blitzes in that span.
Dallas and Mike Zimmer want you to get to 3rd down. That is where they will make your life miserable. As you can see, on the Dallas side of the ledger, there are only two columns in green. 3rd down defense and sacks. Those are often redundant here.


But, this is also where Joe Burrow slices and dices. In other words, this is not Tommy DeVito or Drew Lock. This is a fully operational franchise QB and his franchise weapons. How a team this loaded on offense has four wins at this point of the year shows us that they have an offensive line you can destroy. And that is the path tonight for the Cowboys front – in particular, the ones we trust, Micah and Overshown.

Our feature player this week, though, is on the ground. It is Chase Brown.

NextGen tells us what the film confirms. He hits the hole with reckless abandon.
Chase Brown has averaged 10.89 MPH at the line of scrimmage, 6th-fastest among RBs with at least 50 carries this season. The Bengals running backs run between the tackles at the 4th-highest rate in the league (60.8%) yet also average the 5th-fastest speed at line of scrimmage (10.44 MPH) among all RB groups, also the fastest average speed at the line of scrimmage among teams that rush inside on more than 50% of RB carries.
I suspect that they will want to see how the Dallas run defense is doing early on. We definitely know that the run defense remains one of the worst in the industry. But, the Bengals also don’t get much done there, so they may choose to play with the fire of the pass rush and attempt to take on the Cowboys corners.


Do we expect that this will be the game that we finally get Trevon Diggs, DaRon Bland, and Jourdan Lewis all in the same game at the same time? Diggs has been listed as questionable, so we won’t hold our breath. But, they could really use him out there as JaMarr Chase and friends will offer a very fun test.
 

Chocolate Lab

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The corner activity makes me wonder if Diggs is sitting out tonight.
 

bbgun

every dur is a stab in the heart
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We are 4-0 wearing the Arctic White uniforms. :skurred
 

Rev

Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun
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Could have done without a closeup on Samwise.
 

ravidubey

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Washington, NYG, Carolina, Cincinnati …

The football gods want us out of the top ten picks
 
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