jsmith6919
Honored Member - RIP
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Will a mod move this to the covid thread please so I can post my rebuttal
2021 Random NFL Stuff Thread...
- Thread starter boozeman
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shoop
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See the Rona thread where I specifically answered this question
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shoop
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Because I want to read about football and not Covid. That is exactly why there is a Covid thread. It is no different than if we started talking about clothing types in multiple threads. Nothing wrong with the discussion just do it in the proper place. At this point I can’t read normal threads without them devolving into debate about Covid.
jsmith6919
Honored Member - RIP
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This classless shitpainter was just trying to follow the rules but so be it
Then explain why the most unvaxxed are the black community? Are you implying they are conservatives?
Show your work here, if that was the truth why is Israel who is 85%+ vaxxed dealing with an outbreak?
Again, cite your source
Yes, how dare a young athlete in prime health that has more of a chance of dying from being struck by lightning not take a vaccine that was pushed thru from political pressure :/
Mods please feel free to move this to the appropriate thread
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Booze, you mf'er.
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NFL execs rank the NFC 1-16: Bucs and Packers in front, NFC West power, and weakness up front with Giants and Bears
Mike Sando Sep 3, 2021
The five NFL executives who recently stacked AFC teams are back with their 1-16 ranking of the NFC, highlighted by a bottom-three ranking for a 2020 playoff team brimming with excitement over its recent first-round pick. Consider yourself warned, Chicago Bears fans.
Though readers might find some of the results surprising, even maddening, these are compelling conversations as the 2021 season openers approach.
We’ll begin with a table showing where all 16 NFC teams finished in the ranking. Average votes were used to break ties when median results were the same. Even with that tiebreaker, two NFC West rivals finished tied for the third spot in the conference, with a third team from the division not far behind.
NFC Rankings: NFL Execs Vote
The next table shows how each exec ranked every team in the conference.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Votes: 1-1-1-1-1 | Avg: 1.0 | Median: 1
Guessing which season Tom Brady falls off the age cliff has become futile. If anything, voters expect the 44-year-old starter to play well more consistently now that he’s in better sync with the coaching staff.
“If there is any question on offense, it might be, where does the running game go?” a voter said. “And I actually think it’s going to be improved with Giovani Bernard. I think Giovani Bernard is going to be like James White for Tom Brady. On defense, their pass rush will be improved. Joe Tryon is going to have an impact as a third guy. I don’t think there’s a weakness, in my opinion, on their defense.”
2. Green Bay Packers
Votes: 2-2-2-2-3 | Avg: 2.2 | Median: 2
While the Buccaneers brought back everyone of consequence, the Packers came close. They parted with veteran center Corey Linsley and will replace him with rookie second-round pick Josh Myers. Left tackle David Bakhtiari will miss at least the first six games following offseason knee surgery.
“They will be allowed to work out some of the kinks in that division,” one voter said. “As long as they have the quarterback healthy, I am not betting against them.”
Another voter wasn’t willing to bet on the Packers beyond the NFC North, citing concerns about defensive scheming under a new coordinator. Two voters also questioned whether the receiving corps beyond Davante Adams would perform as well as it did last season.
“I don’t know who else would win that division,” a voter said, “but as far as like contending for the Super Bowl, would I be willing to say it’s going to be Tampa and Green Bay? No, not at all.”
T-3. Los Angeles Rams
Votes: 4-4-3-6-2 | Avg: 3.8 | Median: 4
The Rams tied Seattle for third in the conference, with slightly more variance between high and low votes for Los Angeles.
“I’m going Tampa one, Rams two,” one voter said. “I’m buying (Matthew) Stafford on a better team with a better defense in a new environment, with a new challenge. Sometimes with veteran players at the end, you see that big bump when they switch teams. They have to re-prove themselves. They’re reenergized. They’ve got a little bit more of an edge to them. I think we’re going to see the best of Stafford.”
Stafford’s Lions teams finished ahead of Green Bay once in the NFC North. That was in 2017, when the 9-7 Lions finished second to Minnesota. Green Bay was 7-9 that year as Brett Hundley started nine games for the injured Aaron Rodgers.
The voter who placed the Rams sixth worried about coaching attrition after defensive coordinator Brandon Staley and passing game coordinator Shane Waldron left for promotions.
“You are happy for them, but you can’t keep flipping out your coordinators,” this voter said. “I get that Sean (McVay) is the offensive coordinator, but this is now his third D-coordinator in three years.”
T-3. Seattle Seahawks
Votes: 3-3-4-4-5 | Avg: 3.8 | Median: 4
The Seahawks averaged 22.3 offensive points per game over their final nine last season, counting playoffs. That was down from 34.0 on average through the first eight. The schedule was a factor, but it wasn’t everything. Seattle is now healthier at running back, healthier and more proven on the offensive line, deeper at receiver, younger at tight end and more interesting at offensive coordinator with Waldron leaving the Rams for Seattle.
“I think the play-action and those things are going to fit Russell (Wilson) well,” a voter said. “If they could play good defense — steady, consistent defense — you’ve got a chance every week because of the quarterback.”
Cornerback is the biggest question mark on defense, but not the only one.
“I’m putting it all on the fact that OK, it’s on the quarterback, but I also think they will be better in the run game,” a voter who ranked Seattle third in the conference said. “They got decimated in the run game last year. Chris Carson is back, Rashaad Penny is healthy and even Alex Collins has played before. Dee Eskridge, once he gets into a flow, will be a good third option with (DK) Metcalf and (Tyler) Lockett.”
5. San Francisco 49ers
Votes: 5-9-5-10-4 | Avg: 6.6 | Median: 5
The range of projected NFC rankings jumps beginning with the 49ers, as the six spots separating highest and lowest votes reflects divergent expectations.
“They’ve got a good (offensive) line, I think they have a great pass rush,” one voter said. “They have an average secondary and some good playmakers on defense. They have average skill, but part of the problem with their skill is, and this is the problem with their whole roster, yeah, when these guys are healthy, they are good, but they are hurt a lot.”
Perception might be stronger than reality on the injury front. The 49ers’ No. 1 ranking in Weighted AV Lost to injury last season marked the first time under coach Kyle Shanahan that San Francisco ranked higher than 15th among hardest-hit teams in that category. The injuries have seemed worse because the team was expecting so much from quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo in 2018, before he established himself as a full-time starter. The high-profile injuries did not become more widespread until Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, Weston Richburg, Deebo Samuel, Dee Ford, Solomon Thomas and George Kittle joined Garoppolo in missing time last season.
The voter ranking San Francisco 10th thought the pass rush was overrated beyond Bosa and Arik Armstead. This voter also thought the defense could miss former coordinator Robert Saleh. Most of the voters’ focus was on the quarterback situation, naturally.
“If they go with Jimmy, then they’re probably going to end up competing for a playoff spot,” one voter said. “If it’s Trey (Lance) and he ascends, then they are going to be competing for a division title. If it’s Trey and he’s not that good, then build for next year.”
6. New Orleans Saints
Votes: 7-11-8-3-6 | Avg: 7.0 | Median: 7
The Saints could be relocating for the season’s first month following Hurricane Ida, which would seem to put them at a disadvantage. They are also going into a season without Drew Brees for the first time since 2005, when Jim Haslett was head coach and Mike Sheppard was calling the offensive plays.
Voters disagreed over how well Jameis Winston would fare in Sean Payton’s offense.
“Having a year off the field with Sean and around Drew, I think that helps,” one voter said. “Obviously, he humbled himself going there, and I think it was a great move bringing him in. Just a couple of throws he made the other night, not too many people are making those throws. New Orleans will be able to attack more of the field this year than they could with Drew’s limitations in arm strength.”
Winston famously tossed 30 interceptions in his final season with Tampa Bay. He never tossed more than 18 in an NFL season previously.
“I think the quarterback is going to be bad, but they got a good line and they have a good defense,” another voter said. “They got good coaching. Maybe they’ll be able to run the ball and play good defense and trick some teams, but if Jameis is going to throw the ball as many times as he did in Tampa, they are going to have problems. He was intercepted 30 times and sacked 47. That’s awful, and that’s not luck. These are problems throughout his career.”
7. Dallas Cowboys
Votes: 6-7-6-9-8 | Avg: 7.2 | Median: 7
Voters bunched New Orleans, Dallas and Minnesota together as teams that could contend for the playoffs without threatening the top teams ultimately. Philadelphia, Arizona and Washington may be in there somewhere also.
“Now you’re in a real, just shake up the bottle, it’s going to come out different every week — who is playing well, who is healthy,” the voter who ranked Dallas eighth said.
There will be no easing into the season with Tampa Bay on the schedule in Week 1. Dak Prescott will be facing a Buccaneers defense that chased Patrick Mahomes so relentlessly in the Super Bowl that Kansas City felt compelled to remake its offensive line.
“Dak is coming off a major rehab and he gets something else with his arm and you get these odd reports that this is going to be a lingering issue as a thrower,” another voter said. “The whole NFC East, nobody knows what it is. We all know what the questions are for every team. For Dallas, can they at least give themselves a chance defensively? They should be better hiring a coordinator (Dan Quinn) whose defense fits their personnel better.”
8. Minnesota Vikings
Votes: 9-13-7-5-7 | Avg: 8.2 | Median: 7
The eight-spot spread between highest (fifth) and lowest (13th) votes for Minnesota is the largest for any team ranked among the top 10 in the conference.
“I don’t know what direction they are heading in, whether it’s up or down,” a voter who ranked Minnesota seventh said. “Once they paid the quarterback, the complexion of that team changes dramatically and they have stretched themselves and retained a lot of veteran players defensively, but do they have the horses to play the way they want to defensively?”
Four games against Chicago and Detroit could help.
“I think it is going to be a well-coached team and will have some toughness,” another voter said. “They got a chance to win a good handful games in the division, which gives you a chance to compete for a wild card possibly.”
9. Arizona Cardinals
Votes: 8-10-9-11-9 | Avg: 9.4 | Median: 9
All five voters saw the Cardinals as a middle-tier team in the conference. Hence, the tight three-slot spread between highest and lowest votes.
“They caught lightning in a bottle with Carson Palmer,” a voter said. “Do they do it with A.J. Green and J.J. Watt and the center they got from the Raiders (Rodney Hudson)? I don’t know, and they’re in a difficult division, especially if San Francisco stays healthy.”
Larry Fitzgerald is out. Green is in. DeAndre Hopkins is back. Kyler Murray is healthy again.
“It’ll be interesting to see if Kyler takes the next step now that he’s a couple years into it and people are trying to keep him in the pocket,” a voter said.
10. Washington Football Team
Votes: 10-8-11-8-10 | Avg: 9.4 | Median: 10
Washington finished fourth in the NFC last season only because its 7-9 record was enough to win the NFC East. Otherwise, the Football Team would have been about ninth in the conference, which is right about where voters project Washington to finish this season.
“They are going to be a classic Ron Rivera team, physical up front on both sides and then it’s what can Fitzy (Ryan Fitzpatrick) do in the pass game,” a voter said.
Fitzpatrick has twice started for teams that had top-five defenses using TruMedia’s EPA model. Those teams, the 2014 Texans and 2015 Jets, had winning records.
“Fitzpatrick is good until he’s not, and I doubt that magic lasts through the season,” a voter said.
11. Philadelphia Eagles
Votes: 14-5-10-7-14 | Avg: 10.0 | Median: 10
The voters placing Philadelphia among the top seven in the NFC despite fundamental questions surrounding quarterback Jalen Hurts pointed to the potential for strong lines on both sides of the ball. They also cited an NFC East that could help the Eagles. Of course, Philly’s division rivals are simultaneously counting on the Eagles to boost their status in the win column.
“Jordan Mailata looks solid at left tackle, Brandon Brooks and Lane Johnson give them a really strong right side, they still have Jason Kelce,” one voter said. “These guys never played together last season. Adding (Ryan) Kerrigan as a rotational rusher can help. Javon Hargrave is going to have a big season, and if you look at their corner group, with Steven Nelson coming over from Pittsburgh, it’s probably the best they’ve had in a while.”
As for Hurts? Yeah, well, not everyone is betting on him. Two voters placed Philly among the bottom three in the conference largely as a result.
12. Carolina Panthers
Votes: 16-6-12-13-11 | Avg: 11.6 | Median: 12
No team produced a larger disparity between highest and lowest votes. The Panthers, sixth in the NFC? The Panthers, 16th and last, below Detroit?
“You are getting a healthy (Christian) McCaffrey back and then you’re getting an upgrade at quarterback in my opinion because last year Teddy (Bridgewater) couldn’t connect on the deep balls, so you were not maximizing Robby Anderson’s best trait,” a voter said. “You’re getting year two of Joe Brady. Then I look at the defense, Troy Pride started eight games last year and he had no business being a starting corner. You draft Jaycee Horn, you get better there. You sign A.J. Bouye, who was a starter previously, as your nickel. They got better at spots that were big weaknesses last year.”
The voter who ranked the Panthers 16th wondered if any team besides Carolina would have acquired Darnold as its undisputed starter this offseason. He thought Bridgewater would have been better.
“It goes to back to whether you’re a Darnold fan or not,” another voter said of the variance on Carolina. “They were a competitive team last year without McCaffrey. I’m bullish on Matt Rhule, they are going to get (Jeremy) Chinn back in a better position (safety). You got Brian Burns, you got (Yetur) Gross-Matos. There is some talent there, and then you get two games against Atlanta.”
13. Atlanta Falcons
Votes: 11-12-15-12-15 | Avg: 13.0 | Median: 12
Team owner Arthur Blank recently told The Athletic’s Jeff Schultz that he wants new coach Arthur Smith to improve the team’s rushing attack so the Falcons can better control games in second halves. Voters suspect Atlanta will need to keep scoring in second halves to cover for their defense.
“I think Atlanta is a rebuild,” a voter who ranked Atlanta 12th said. “They kept the quarterback, so they chose to go about it differently. I just don’t know what they are defensively. I think (defensive coordinator) Dean Pees is a really good coach, but I see this team having the same problems, just not being able to stop people in second halves, particularly in the fourth quarters.”
14. Chicago Bears
Votes: 12-15-13-14-12 | Avg: 13.2 | Median: 13
The Bears were 8-8 and in the playoffs as the NFC’s seventh seed last season. They replaced quarterback Mitch Trubisky with Andy Dalton and Justin Fields. Yet no voter ranked them higher than 12th in the conference.
“Why would everyone put Chicago so low?” a coach who did not vote in this survey said. “Someone probably spent a lot of time looking at the schedule, but I’d put them ahead of Minnesota, who I think is way too high. I’d put them ahead of Dallas. It’s not going to be long for the kid (Fields) to play, and they will be more explosive with him. I just think they are better than they are given credit for. I saw them twice in preseason and they were running around, flying around pretty good.”
The Bears play the NFL’s toughest schedule of opposing quarterbacks when using 2021 Quarterback Tiers results as a guide. They play four games against Tier 1 quarterbacks, tied for most in the league. They are the only team with zero games against Tier 4 quarterbacks. The gap between Dalton’s average vote and the average for Chicago’s opponents is larger than the gap for any team in the league. Fields, while exciting, is unproven.
“Chicago absolutely should be this low,” a voter said. “You’ve got an unproven first-year defensive coordinator taking over for a couple guys (Chuck Pagano last season, Vic Fangio before that) with a combined 50 years in the league, and they subtracted Kyle Fuller, so there is some uncertainty there. On offense, everyone wants to talk about the quarterbacks, but without the back (Tarik Cohen), they are not explosive enough. All the quarterbacks there are going to find it tough sledding.”
The Bears also have issues on their offensive line.
“I don’t see Andy Dalton in that tier of guys that makes your team better,” a voter said. “If that is where they are going to go, it will be very interesting. They could struggle at quarterback and on the offensive line. That’s a bad combination.”
15. New York Giants
Votes: 15-14-14-15-13 | Avg: 14.2 | Median: 14
The Giants have won the NFC East three times in the past 20 seasons and not since 2011. Their nine-season run without a division title is their longest since a 22-season gap from 1964-1985. They were 11th in the conference last season, spent big in free agency and didn’t get a vote higher than 13th in this poll, despite a weak division and a defense that can be difficult to play against.
“Their defense has a chance, but without Saquon Barkley, an offense built around Daniel Jones does not,” a voter said. “They do a lot of things with weird special teams formations that take up practice time, but their season is riding on some of the basics, like whether they can protect the quarterback.”
If this ranking becomes accurate, the Giants will own a high 2022 draft choice of their own, plus another high pick acquired from Chicago in the draft-day swap that let the Bears select Justin Fields. By then, the Giants should have a better idea whether they need to select a quarterback or can feel good about moving forward with Jones.
“What I like about Daniel Jones is he’s willing to stand in there, stare down the barrel,” a voter said. “They added some weaponry. Getting Saquon back (at some point) will be huge because they can do a better job marrying run with pass. Jones is going to work at it, he’s tough and he can do it physically. Being in the same offense for the second year in a row, he has a chance to take off a little bit. I just don’t know if they can protect him.”
16. Detroit Lions
Votes: 13-16-16-16-16 | Avg: 15.4 | Median: 16
The Lions are easy to write off based on their history and new coach Dan Campbell’s sometimes humorously over-the-top news conferences. One voter did place Detroit a few spots higher than the others, however. This voter cited a strong offensive line that should provide a reliable, important building block for the team as Campbell creates a new identity following a rough run under previous coach Matt Patricia.
“I have Detroit clustered with Philly and the Giants, but think they have the best quarterback of the three,” this voter added.
Another voter said some of the biggest changes to the team could be happening behind the scenes.
“Can the Brad Holmes/Chris Spielman/Dan Campbell trio change the culture from what was, at worst, a non-collaborative, know-it-all New England model?” this voter asked. “This will be multi-year revamp that has already started with replacing high-level non-coaching employees like the trainer.”
An exec who did not vote in this survey noted that Campbell, while appearing rough around the edges and sounding almost like a pro wrestler at times, compared the Lions’ new coach to Billy Summers, the Stephen King character who misleads others into underestimating him. The Lions’ No. 16 ranking here shows no one is overestimating Detroit just yet. Building a strong offensive line is not a bad place to start, however.
Mike Sando Sep 3, 2021
The five NFL executives who recently stacked AFC teams are back with their 1-16 ranking of the NFC, highlighted by a bottom-three ranking for a 2020 playoff team brimming with excitement over its recent first-round pick. Consider yourself warned, Chicago Bears fans.
Though readers might find some of the results surprising, even maddening, these are compelling conversations as the 2021 season openers approach.
We’ll begin with a table showing where all 16 NFC teams finished in the ranking. Average votes were used to break ties when median results were the same. Even with that tiebreaker, two NFC West rivals finished tied for the third spot in the conference, with a third team from the division not far behind.
NFC Rankings: NFL Execs Vote
| RANK | NFC TEAM | AVG VOTE | MEDIAN VOTE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1.0 | 1 |
| 2 |  Green Bay Packers | 2.2 | 2 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles Rams | 3.8 | 4 |
| 3 |  Seattle Seahawks | 3.8 | 4 |
| 5 |  San Francisco 49ers | 6.6 | 5 |
| 6 |  New Orleans Saints | 7.0 | 7 |
| 7 |  Dallas Cowboys | 7.2 | 7 |
| 8 |  Minnesota Vikings | 8.2 | 7 |
| 9 |  Arizona Cardinals | 9.4 | 9 |
| 10 |  Washington Football Team | 9.4 | 10 |
| 11 |  Philadelphia Eagles | 10.0 | 10 |
| 12 |  Carolina Panthers | 11.6 | 12 |
| 13 |  Atlanta Falcons | 13.0 | 12 |
| 14 |  Chicago Bears | 13.2 | 13 |
| 15 |  New York Giants | 14.2 | 14 |
| 16 |  Detroit Lions | 15.4 | 16 |
The next table shows how each exec ranked every team in the conference.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Votes: 1-1-1-1-1 | Avg: 1.0 | Median: 1
Guessing which season Tom Brady falls off the age cliff has become futile. If anything, voters expect the 44-year-old starter to play well more consistently now that he’s in better sync with the coaching staff.
“If there is any question on offense, it might be, where does the running game go?” a voter said. “And I actually think it’s going to be improved with Giovani Bernard. I think Giovani Bernard is going to be like James White for Tom Brady. On defense, their pass rush will be improved. Joe Tryon is going to have an impact as a third guy. I don’t think there’s a weakness, in my opinion, on their defense.”
2. Green Bay Packers
Votes: 2-2-2-2-3 | Avg: 2.2 | Median: 2
While the Buccaneers brought back everyone of consequence, the Packers came close. They parted with veteran center Corey Linsley and will replace him with rookie second-round pick Josh Myers. Left tackle David Bakhtiari will miss at least the first six games following offseason knee surgery.
“They will be allowed to work out some of the kinks in that division,” one voter said. “As long as they have the quarterback healthy, I am not betting against them.”
Another voter wasn’t willing to bet on the Packers beyond the NFC North, citing concerns about defensive scheming under a new coordinator. Two voters also questioned whether the receiving corps beyond Davante Adams would perform as well as it did last season.
“I don’t know who else would win that division,” a voter said, “but as far as like contending for the Super Bowl, would I be willing to say it’s going to be Tampa and Green Bay? No, not at all.”
T-3. Los Angeles Rams
Votes: 4-4-3-6-2 | Avg: 3.8 | Median: 4
The Rams tied Seattle for third in the conference, with slightly more variance between high and low votes for Los Angeles.
“I’m going Tampa one, Rams two,” one voter said. “I’m buying (Matthew) Stafford on a better team with a better defense in a new environment, with a new challenge. Sometimes with veteran players at the end, you see that big bump when they switch teams. They have to re-prove themselves. They’re reenergized. They’ve got a little bit more of an edge to them. I think we’re going to see the best of Stafford.”
Stafford’s Lions teams finished ahead of Green Bay once in the NFC North. That was in 2017, when the 9-7 Lions finished second to Minnesota. Green Bay was 7-9 that year as Brett Hundley started nine games for the injured Aaron Rodgers.
The voter who placed the Rams sixth worried about coaching attrition after defensive coordinator Brandon Staley and passing game coordinator Shane Waldron left for promotions.
“You are happy for them, but you can’t keep flipping out your coordinators,” this voter said. “I get that Sean (McVay) is the offensive coordinator, but this is now his third D-coordinator in three years.”
T-3. Seattle Seahawks
Votes: 3-3-4-4-5 | Avg: 3.8 | Median: 4
The Seahawks averaged 22.3 offensive points per game over their final nine last season, counting playoffs. That was down from 34.0 on average through the first eight. The schedule was a factor, but it wasn’t everything. Seattle is now healthier at running back, healthier and more proven on the offensive line, deeper at receiver, younger at tight end and more interesting at offensive coordinator with Waldron leaving the Rams for Seattle.
“I think the play-action and those things are going to fit Russell (Wilson) well,” a voter said. “If they could play good defense — steady, consistent defense — you’ve got a chance every week because of the quarterback.”
Cornerback is the biggest question mark on defense, but not the only one.
“I’m putting it all on the fact that OK, it’s on the quarterback, but I also think they will be better in the run game,” a voter who ranked Seattle third in the conference said. “They got decimated in the run game last year. Chris Carson is back, Rashaad Penny is healthy and even Alex Collins has played before. Dee Eskridge, once he gets into a flow, will be a good third option with (DK) Metcalf and (Tyler) Lockett.”
5. San Francisco 49ers
Votes: 5-9-5-10-4 | Avg: 6.6 | Median: 5
The range of projected NFC rankings jumps beginning with the 49ers, as the six spots separating highest and lowest votes reflects divergent expectations.
“They’ve got a good (offensive) line, I think they have a great pass rush,” one voter said. “They have an average secondary and some good playmakers on defense. They have average skill, but part of the problem with their skill is, and this is the problem with their whole roster, yeah, when these guys are healthy, they are good, but they are hurt a lot.”
Perception might be stronger than reality on the injury front. The 49ers’ No. 1 ranking in Weighted AV Lost to injury last season marked the first time under coach Kyle Shanahan that San Francisco ranked higher than 15th among hardest-hit teams in that category. The injuries have seemed worse because the team was expecting so much from quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo in 2018, before he established himself as a full-time starter. The high-profile injuries did not become more widespread until Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, Weston Richburg, Deebo Samuel, Dee Ford, Solomon Thomas and George Kittle joined Garoppolo in missing time last season.
The voter ranking San Francisco 10th thought the pass rush was overrated beyond Bosa and Arik Armstead. This voter also thought the defense could miss former coordinator Robert Saleh. Most of the voters’ focus was on the quarterback situation, naturally.
“If they go with Jimmy, then they’re probably going to end up competing for a playoff spot,” one voter said. “If it’s Trey (Lance) and he ascends, then they are going to be competing for a division title. If it’s Trey and he’s not that good, then build for next year.”
6. New Orleans Saints
Votes: 7-11-8-3-6 | Avg: 7.0 | Median: 7
The Saints could be relocating for the season’s first month following Hurricane Ida, which would seem to put them at a disadvantage. They are also going into a season without Drew Brees for the first time since 2005, when Jim Haslett was head coach and Mike Sheppard was calling the offensive plays.
Voters disagreed over how well Jameis Winston would fare in Sean Payton’s offense.
“Having a year off the field with Sean and around Drew, I think that helps,” one voter said. “Obviously, he humbled himself going there, and I think it was a great move bringing him in. Just a couple of throws he made the other night, not too many people are making those throws. New Orleans will be able to attack more of the field this year than they could with Drew’s limitations in arm strength.”
Winston famously tossed 30 interceptions in his final season with Tampa Bay. He never tossed more than 18 in an NFL season previously.
“I think the quarterback is going to be bad, but they got a good line and they have a good defense,” another voter said. “They got good coaching. Maybe they’ll be able to run the ball and play good defense and trick some teams, but if Jameis is going to throw the ball as many times as he did in Tampa, they are going to have problems. He was intercepted 30 times and sacked 47. That’s awful, and that’s not luck. These are problems throughout his career.”
7. Dallas Cowboys
Votes: 6-7-6-9-8 | Avg: 7.2 | Median: 7
Voters bunched New Orleans, Dallas and Minnesota together as teams that could contend for the playoffs without threatening the top teams ultimately. Philadelphia, Arizona and Washington may be in there somewhere also.
“Now you’re in a real, just shake up the bottle, it’s going to come out different every week — who is playing well, who is healthy,” the voter who ranked Dallas eighth said.
There will be no easing into the season with Tampa Bay on the schedule in Week 1. Dak Prescott will be facing a Buccaneers defense that chased Patrick Mahomes so relentlessly in the Super Bowl that Kansas City felt compelled to remake its offensive line.
“Dak is coming off a major rehab and he gets something else with his arm and you get these odd reports that this is going to be a lingering issue as a thrower,” another voter said. “The whole NFC East, nobody knows what it is. We all know what the questions are for every team. For Dallas, can they at least give themselves a chance defensively? They should be better hiring a coordinator (Dan Quinn) whose defense fits their personnel better.”
8. Minnesota Vikings
Votes: 9-13-7-5-7 | Avg: 8.2 | Median: 7
The eight-spot spread between highest (fifth) and lowest (13th) votes for Minnesota is the largest for any team ranked among the top 10 in the conference.
“I don’t know what direction they are heading in, whether it’s up or down,” a voter who ranked Minnesota seventh said. “Once they paid the quarterback, the complexion of that team changes dramatically and they have stretched themselves and retained a lot of veteran players defensively, but do they have the horses to play the way they want to defensively?”
Four games against Chicago and Detroit could help.
“I think it is going to be a well-coached team and will have some toughness,” another voter said. “They got a chance to win a good handful games in the division, which gives you a chance to compete for a wild card possibly.”
9. Arizona Cardinals
Votes: 8-10-9-11-9 | Avg: 9.4 | Median: 9
All five voters saw the Cardinals as a middle-tier team in the conference. Hence, the tight three-slot spread between highest and lowest votes.
“They caught lightning in a bottle with Carson Palmer,” a voter said. “Do they do it with A.J. Green and J.J. Watt and the center they got from the Raiders (Rodney Hudson)? I don’t know, and they’re in a difficult division, especially if San Francisco stays healthy.”
Larry Fitzgerald is out. Green is in. DeAndre Hopkins is back. Kyler Murray is healthy again.
“It’ll be interesting to see if Kyler takes the next step now that he’s a couple years into it and people are trying to keep him in the pocket,” a voter said.
10. Washington Football Team
Votes: 10-8-11-8-10 | Avg: 9.4 | Median: 10
Washington finished fourth in the NFC last season only because its 7-9 record was enough to win the NFC East. Otherwise, the Football Team would have been about ninth in the conference, which is right about where voters project Washington to finish this season.
“They are going to be a classic Ron Rivera team, physical up front on both sides and then it’s what can Fitzy (Ryan Fitzpatrick) do in the pass game,” a voter said.
Fitzpatrick has twice started for teams that had top-five defenses using TruMedia’s EPA model. Those teams, the 2014 Texans and 2015 Jets, had winning records.
“Fitzpatrick is good until he’s not, and I doubt that magic lasts through the season,” a voter said.
11. Philadelphia Eagles
Votes: 14-5-10-7-14 | Avg: 10.0 | Median: 10
The voters placing Philadelphia among the top seven in the NFC despite fundamental questions surrounding quarterback Jalen Hurts pointed to the potential for strong lines on both sides of the ball. They also cited an NFC East that could help the Eagles. Of course, Philly’s division rivals are simultaneously counting on the Eagles to boost their status in the win column.
“Jordan Mailata looks solid at left tackle, Brandon Brooks and Lane Johnson give them a really strong right side, they still have Jason Kelce,” one voter said. “These guys never played together last season. Adding (Ryan) Kerrigan as a rotational rusher can help. Javon Hargrave is going to have a big season, and if you look at their corner group, with Steven Nelson coming over from Pittsburgh, it’s probably the best they’ve had in a while.”
As for Hurts? Yeah, well, not everyone is betting on him. Two voters placed Philly among the bottom three in the conference largely as a result.
12. Carolina Panthers
Votes: 16-6-12-13-11 | Avg: 11.6 | Median: 12
No team produced a larger disparity between highest and lowest votes. The Panthers, sixth in the NFC? The Panthers, 16th and last, below Detroit?
“You are getting a healthy (Christian) McCaffrey back and then you’re getting an upgrade at quarterback in my opinion because last year Teddy (Bridgewater) couldn’t connect on the deep balls, so you were not maximizing Robby Anderson’s best trait,” a voter said. “You’re getting year two of Joe Brady. Then I look at the defense, Troy Pride started eight games last year and he had no business being a starting corner. You draft Jaycee Horn, you get better there. You sign A.J. Bouye, who was a starter previously, as your nickel. They got better at spots that were big weaknesses last year.”
The voter who ranked the Panthers 16th wondered if any team besides Carolina would have acquired Darnold as its undisputed starter this offseason. He thought Bridgewater would have been better.
“It goes to back to whether you’re a Darnold fan or not,” another voter said of the variance on Carolina. “They were a competitive team last year without McCaffrey. I’m bullish on Matt Rhule, they are going to get (Jeremy) Chinn back in a better position (safety). You got Brian Burns, you got (Yetur) Gross-Matos. There is some talent there, and then you get two games against Atlanta.”
13. Atlanta Falcons
Votes: 11-12-15-12-15 | Avg: 13.0 | Median: 12
Team owner Arthur Blank recently told The Athletic’s Jeff Schultz that he wants new coach Arthur Smith to improve the team’s rushing attack so the Falcons can better control games in second halves. Voters suspect Atlanta will need to keep scoring in second halves to cover for their defense.
“I think Atlanta is a rebuild,” a voter who ranked Atlanta 12th said. “They kept the quarterback, so they chose to go about it differently. I just don’t know what they are defensively. I think (defensive coordinator) Dean Pees is a really good coach, but I see this team having the same problems, just not being able to stop people in second halves, particularly in the fourth quarters.”
14. Chicago Bears
Votes: 12-15-13-14-12 | Avg: 13.2 | Median: 13
The Bears were 8-8 and in the playoffs as the NFC’s seventh seed last season. They replaced quarterback Mitch Trubisky with Andy Dalton and Justin Fields. Yet no voter ranked them higher than 12th in the conference.
“Why would everyone put Chicago so low?” a coach who did not vote in this survey said. “Someone probably spent a lot of time looking at the schedule, but I’d put them ahead of Minnesota, who I think is way too high. I’d put them ahead of Dallas. It’s not going to be long for the kid (Fields) to play, and they will be more explosive with him. I just think they are better than they are given credit for. I saw them twice in preseason and they were running around, flying around pretty good.”
The Bears play the NFL’s toughest schedule of opposing quarterbacks when using 2021 Quarterback Tiers results as a guide. They play four games against Tier 1 quarterbacks, tied for most in the league. They are the only team with zero games against Tier 4 quarterbacks. The gap between Dalton’s average vote and the average for Chicago’s opponents is larger than the gap for any team in the league. Fields, while exciting, is unproven.
“Chicago absolutely should be this low,” a voter said. “You’ve got an unproven first-year defensive coordinator taking over for a couple guys (Chuck Pagano last season, Vic Fangio before that) with a combined 50 years in the league, and they subtracted Kyle Fuller, so there is some uncertainty there. On offense, everyone wants to talk about the quarterbacks, but without the back (Tarik Cohen), they are not explosive enough. All the quarterbacks there are going to find it tough sledding.”
The Bears also have issues on their offensive line.
“I don’t see Andy Dalton in that tier of guys that makes your team better,” a voter said. “If that is where they are going to go, it will be very interesting. They could struggle at quarterback and on the offensive line. That’s a bad combination.”
15. New York Giants
Votes: 15-14-14-15-13 | Avg: 14.2 | Median: 14
The Giants have won the NFC East three times in the past 20 seasons and not since 2011. Their nine-season run without a division title is their longest since a 22-season gap from 1964-1985. They were 11th in the conference last season, spent big in free agency and didn’t get a vote higher than 13th in this poll, despite a weak division and a defense that can be difficult to play against.
“Their defense has a chance, but without Saquon Barkley, an offense built around Daniel Jones does not,” a voter said. “They do a lot of things with weird special teams formations that take up practice time, but their season is riding on some of the basics, like whether they can protect the quarterback.”
If this ranking becomes accurate, the Giants will own a high 2022 draft choice of their own, plus another high pick acquired from Chicago in the draft-day swap that let the Bears select Justin Fields. By then, the Giants should have a better idea whether they need to select a quarterback or can feel good about moving forward with Jones.
“What I like about Daniel Jones is he’s willing to stand in there, stare down the barrel,” a voter said. “They added some weaponry. Getting Saquon back (at some point) will be huge because they can do a better job marrying run with pass. Jones is going to work at it, he’s tough and he can do it physically. Being in the same offense for the second year in a row, he has a chance to take off a little bit. I just don’t know if they can protect him.”
16. Detroit Lions
Votes: 13-16-16-16-16 | Avg: 15.4 | Median: 16
The Lions are easy to write off based on their history and new coach Dan Campbell’s sometimes humorously over-the-top news conferences. One voter did place Detroit a few spots higher than the others, however. This voter cited a strong offensive line that should provide a reliable, important building block for the team as Campbell creates a new identity following a rough run under previous coach Matt Patricia.
“I have Detroit clustered with Philly and the Giants, but think they have the best quarterback of the three,” this voter added.
Another voter said some of the biggest changes to the team could be happening behind the scenes.
“Can the Brad Holmes/Chris Spielman/Dan Campbell trio change the culture from what was, at worst, a non-collaborative, know-it-all New England model?” this voter asked. “This will be multi-year revamp that has already started with replacing high-level non-coaching employees like the trainer.”
An exec who did not vote in this survey noted that Campbell, while appearing rough around the edges and sounding almost like a pro wrestler at times, compared the Lions’ new coach to Billy Summers, the Stephen King character who misleads others into underestimating him. The Lions’ No. 16 ranking here shows no one is overestimating Detroit just yet. Building a strong offensive line is not a bad place to start, however.
ravidubey
DCC 4Life
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You're hardly classless and I have always appreciated your Cowboys takes. I also appreciate the tone you've set with this conversation, so for that thank you sir
I'm not saying everyone has the same motivations, just pointing out the behavior. It appears extreme.
There are many studies, but I'll focus on a few, and also pre-Delta and post-Delta.
Pre Delta
- In Indiana pre August, 1 in 34 unvaccinated caught COVID vs 1 in 467 vaccinated
- The US as a whole had 18,000 COVID deaths in May, and only 150 of those were vaccinated. That is a ridiculous difference.
- St. Louis area, more than 90% of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 had not been vaccinated
- Israel like you said 78% of those 12 and older are fully vaccinated, pre-Delta they had almost no new cases per day in May and June.
- Today most Israeli Delta cases (59%) are fully vaccinated, 87% are 60 or older. Part of this is because there are so many already vaccinated, but the main takeaway from multiple studies of Israeli data was the longer it had been since being vaccinated (recall older folks went first), the greater chances of carrying and getting infected.
- Israel is seeing this first because 1) they were ahead of the curve and vaccinated most of their people back in March and those vaccines have waned in effectiveness and 2) even 92% still leaves 8% unprotected in the first place. 3) there are still 22% of folks unvaccinated.
- Yesterday (September 4th) Israel had 11338 new infections and 31 COVID deaths. That last number is the key, and the vaccine is what keeps that number so low. A .27% death/infected ratio is a lot lower than the 1% and higher numbers we had been seeing.
- Another study went into detail on the Pfizer vaccine where they discovered it at peak strength was 92% resistant to Delta. But these numbers corroborate the Israeli numbers and show a drop down to 90%, 85% and 78% after 30, 60 and 90 days.
Most important stat taken right off the CDC website: Millions of people have received COVID-19 vaccines, and no long-term side effects have been detected. That's huge, basically you have greater long term health to gain and nothing to lose but the time it took to get the shot and maybe experience temporary side effects.
And there it is.
I'm not sure I understand this, mainly because we're talking not only the US Government but most governments of the world subsidizing a bunch of vaccines, which while similar are not all the same. In the US, Trump was pushing hard for it as was Biden once he took over. That's both parties.
It should never have been politicized but that's how it was perceived, as an instrument to boost popular opinion and rekindle the economy both before and after the election.
That fucking sucks, because for the good of all we need to not only get vaccinated, but it's looking like we need to keep getting vaccinated.
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Genghis Khan
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NFL execs rank the NFC 1-16: Bucs and Packers in front, NFC West power, and weakness up front with Giants and Bears
Mike Sando Sep 3, 2021
The five NFL executives who recently stacked AFC teams are back with their 1-16 ranking of the NFC, highlighted by a bottom-three ranking for a 2020 playoff team brimming with excitement over its recent first-round pick. Consider yourself warned, Chicago Bears fans.
Though readers might find some of the results surprising, even maddening, these are compelling conversations as the 2021 season openers approach.
We’ll begin with a table showing where all 16 NFC teams finished in the ranking. Average votes were used to break ties when median results were the same. Even with that tiebreaker, two NFC West rivals finished tied for the third spot in the conference, with a third team from the division not far behind.
NFC Rankings: NFL Execs Vote
The next table shows how each exec ranked every team in the conference.
RANK NFC TEAM AVG VOTE MEDIAN VOTE 1 1.0 1 2 2.2 2 3 3.8 4 3 3.8 4 5 6.6 5 6 7.0 7 7 7.2 7 8 8.2 7 9 9.4 9 10 9.4 10 11 10.0 10 12 11.6 12 13 13.0 12 14 13.2 13 15 14.2 14 16 15.4 16
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Votes: 1-1-1-1-1 | Avg: 1.0 | Median: 1
Guessing which season Tom Brady falls off the age cliff has become futile. If anything, voters expect the 44-year-old starter to play well more consistently now that he’s in better sync with the coaching staff.
“If there is any question on offense, it might be, where does the running game go?” a voter said. “And I actually think it’s going to be improved with Giovani Bernard. I think Giovani Bernard is going to be like James White for Tom Brady. On defense, their pass rush will be improved. Joe Tryon is going to have an impact as a third guy. I don’t think there’s a weakness, in my opinion, on their defense.”
2. Green Bay Packers
Votes: 2-2-2-2-3 | Avg: 2.2 | Median: 2
While the Buccaneers brought back everyone of consequence, the Packers came close. They parted with veteran center Corey Linsley and will replace him with rookie second-round pick Josh Myers. Left tackle David Bakhtiari will miss at least the first six games following offseason knee surgery.
“They will be allowed to work out some of the kinks in that division,” one voter said. “As long as they have the quarterback healthy, I am not betting against them.”
Another voter wasn’t willing to bet on the Packers beyond the NFC North, citing concerns about defensive scheming under a new coordinator. Two voters also questioned whether the receiving corps beyond Davante Adams would perform as well as it did last season.
“I don’t know who else would win that division,” a voter said, “but as far as like contending for the Super Bowl, would I be willing to say it’s going to be Tampa and Green Bay? No, not at all.”
T-3. Los Angeles Rams
Votes: 4-4-3-6-2 | Avg: 3.8 | Median: 4
The Rams tied Seattle for third in the conference, with slightly more variance between high and low votes for Los Angeles.
“I’m going Tampa one, Rams two,” one voter said. “I’m buying (Matthew) Stafford on a better team with a better defense in a new environment, with a new challenge. Sometimes with veteran players at the end, you see that big bump when they switch teams. They have to re-prove themselves. They’re reenergized. They’ve got a little bit more of an edge to them. I think we’re going to see the best of Stafford.”
Stafford’s Lions teams finished ahead of Green Bay once in the NFC North. That was in 2017, when the 9-7 Lions finished second to Minnesota. Green Bay was 7-9 that year as Brett Hundley started nine games for the injured Aaron Rodgers.
The voter who placed the Rams sixth worried about coaching attrition after defensive coordinator Brandon Staley and passing game coordinator Shane Waldron left for promotions.
“You are happy for them, but you can’t keep flipping out your coordinators,” this voter said. “I get that Sean (McVay) is the offensive coordinator, but this is now his third D-coordinator in three years.”
T-3. Seattle Seahawks
Votes: 3-3-4-4-5 | Avg: 3.8 | Median: 4
The Seahawks averaged 22.3 offensive points per game over their final nine last season, counting playoffs. That was down from 34.0 on average through the first eight. The schedule was a factor, but it wasn’t everything. Seattle is now healthier at running back, healthier and more proven on the offensive line, deeper at receiver, younger at tight end and more interesting at offensive coordinator with Waldron leaving the Rams for Seattle.
“I think the play-action and those things are going to fit Russell (Wilson) well,” a voter said. “If they could play good defense — steady, consistent defense — you’ve got a chance every week because of the quarterback.”
Cornerback is the biggest question mark on defense, but not the only one.
“I’m putting it all on the fact that OK, it’s on the quarterback, but I also think they will be better in the run game,” a voter who ranked Seattle third in the conference said. “They got decimated in the run game last year. Chris Carson is back, Rashaad Penny is healthy and even Alex Collins has played before. Dee Eskridge, once he gets into a flow, will be a good third option with (DK) Metcalf and (Tyler) Lockett.”
5. San Francisco 49ers
Votes: 5-9-5-10-4 | Avg: 6.6 | Median: 5
The range of projected NFC rankings jumps beginning with the 49ers, as the six spots separating highest and lowest votes reflects divergent expectations.
“They’ve got a good (offensive) line, I think they have a great pass rush,” one voter said. “They have an average secondary and some good playmakers on defense. They have average skill, but part of the problem with their skill is, and this is the problem with their whole roster, yeah, when these guys are healthy, they are good, but they are hurt a lot.”
Perception might be stronger than reality on the injury front. The 49ers’ No. 1 ranking in Weighted AV Lost to injury last season marked the first time under coach Kyle Shanahan that San Francisco ranked higher than 15th among hardest-hit teams in that category. The injuries have seemed worse because the team was expecting so much from quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo in 2018, before he established himself as a full-time starter. The high-profile injuries did not become more widespread until Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, Weston Richburg, Deebo Samuel, Dee Ford, Solomon Thomas and George Kittle joined Garoppolo in missing time last season.
The voter ranking San Francisco 10th thought the pass rush was overrated beyond Bosa and Arik Armstead. This voter also thought the defense could miss former coordinator Robert Saleh. Most of the voters’ focus was on the quarterback situation, naturally.
“If they go with Jimmy, then they’re probably going to end up competing for a playoff spot,” one voter said. “If it’s Trey (Lance) and he ascends, then they are going to be competing for a division title. If it’s Trey and he’s not that good, then build for next year.”
6. New Orleans Saints
Votes: 7-11-8-3-6 | Avg: 7.0 | Median: 7
The Saints could be relocating for the season’s first month following Hurricane Ida, which would seem to put them at a disadvantage. They are also going into a season without Drew Brees for the first time since 2005, when Jim Haslett was head coach and Mike Sheppard was calling the offensive plays.
Voters disagreed over how well Jameis Winston would fare in Sean Payton’s offense.
“Having a year off the field with Sean and around Drew, I think that helps,” one voter said. “Obviously, he humbled himself going there, and I think it was a great move bringing him in. Just a couple of throws he made the other night, not too many people are making those throws. New Orleans will be able to attack more of the field this year than they could with Drew’s limitations in arm strength.”
Winston famously tossed 30 interceptions in his final season with Tampa Bay. He never tossed more than 18 in an NFL season previously.
“I think the quarterback is going to be bad, but they got a good line and they have a good defense,” another voter said. “They got good coaching. Maybe they’ll be able to run the ball and play good defense and trick some teams, but if Jameis is going to throw the ball as many times as he did in Tampa, they are going to have problems. He was intercepted 30 times and sacked 47. That’s awful, and that’s not luck. These are problems throughout his career.”
7. Dallas Cowboys
Votes: 6-7-6-9-8 | Avg: 7.2 | Median: 7
Voters bunched New Orleans, Dallas and Minnesota together as teams that could contend for the playoffs without threatening the top teams ultimately. Philadelphia, Arizona and Washington may be in there somewhere also.
“Now you’re in a real, just shake up the bottle, it’s going to come out different every week — who is playing well, who is healthy,” the voter who ranked Dallas eighth said.
There will be no easing into the season with Tampa Bay on the schedule in Week 1. Dak Prescott will be facing a Buccaneers defense that chased Patrick Mahomes so relentlessly in the Super Bowl that Kansas City felt compelled to remake its offensive line.
“Dak is coming off a major rehab and he gets something else with his arm and you get these odd reports that this is going to be a lingering issue as a thrower,” another voter said. “The whole NFC East, nobody knows what it is. We all know what the questions are for every team. For Dallas, can they at least give themselves a chance defensively? They should be better hiring a coordinator (Dan Quinn) whose defense fits their personnel better.”
8. Minnesota Vikings
Votes: 9-13-7-5-7 | Avg: 8.2 | Median: 7
The eight-spot spread between highest (fifth) and lowest (13th) votes for Minnesota is the largest for any team ranked among the top 10 in the conference.
“I don’t know what direction they are heading in, whether it’s up or down,” a voter who ranked Minnesota seventh said. “Once they paid the quarterback, the complexion of that team changes dramatically and they have stretched themselves and retained a lot of veteran players defensively, but do they have the horses to play the way they want to defensively?”
Four games against Chicago and Detroit could help.
“I think it is going to be a well-coached team and will have some toughness,” another voter said. “They got a chance to win a good handful games in the division, which gives you a chance to compete for a wild card possibly.”
9. Arizona Cardinals
Votes: 8-10-9-11-9 | Avg: 9.4 | Median: 9
All five voters saw the Cardinals as a middle-tier team in the conference. Hence, the tight three-slot spread between highest and lowest votes.
“They caught lightning in a bottle with Carson Palmer,” a voter said. “Do they do it with A.J. Green and J.J. Watt and the center they got from the Raiders (Rodney Hudson)? I don’t know, and they’re in a difficult division, especially if San Francisco stays healthy.”
Larry Fitzgerald is out. Green is in. DeAndre Hopkins is back. Kyler Murray is healthy again.
“It’ll be interesting to see if Kyler takes the next step now that he’s a couple years into it and people are trying to keep him in the pocket,” a voter said.
10. Washington Football Team
Votes: 10-8-11-8-10 | Avg: 9.4 | Median: 10
Washington finished fourth in the NFC last season only because its 7-9 record was enough to win the NFC East. Otherwise, the Football Team would have been about ninth in the conference, which is right about where voters project Washington to finish this season.
“They are going to be a classic Ron Rivera team, physical up front on both sides and then it’s what can Fitzy (Ryan Fitzpatrick) do in the pass game,” a voter said.
Fitzpatrick has twice started for teams that had top-five defenses using TruMedia’s EPA model. Those teams, the 2014 Texans and 2015 Jets, had winning records.
“Fitzpatrick is good until he’s not, and I doubt that magic lasts through the season,” a voter said.
11. Philadelphia Eagles
Votes: 14-5-10-7-14 | Avg: 10.0 | Median: 10
The voters placing Philadelphia among the top seven in the NFC despite fundamental questions surrounding quarterback Jalen Hurts pointed to the potential for strong lines on both sides of the ball. They also cited an NFC East that could help the Eagles. Of course, Philly’s division rivals are simultaneously counting on the Eagles to boost their status in the win column.
“Jordan Mailata looks solid at left tackle, Brandon Brooks and Lane Johnson give them a really strong right side, they still have Jason Kelce,” one voter said. “These guys never played together last season. Adding (Ryan) Kerrigan as a rotational rusher can help. Javon Hargrave is going to have a big season, and if you look at their corner group, with Steven Nelson coming over from Pittsburgh, it’s probably the best they’ve had in a while.”
As for Hurts? Yeah, well, not everyone is betting on him. Two voters placed Philly among the bottom three in the conference largely as a result.
12. Carolina Panthers
Votes: 16-6-12-13-11 | Avg: 11.6 | Median: 12
No team produced a larger disparity between highest and lowest votes. The Panthers, sixth in the NFC? The Panthers, 16th and last, below Detroit?
“You are getting a healthy (Christian) McCaffrey back and then you’re getting an upgrade at quarterback in my opinion because last year Teddy (Bridgewater) couldn’t connect on the deep balls, so you were not maximizing Robby Anderson’s best trait,” a voter said. “You’re getting year two of Joe Brady. Then I look at the defense, Troy Pride started eight games last year and he had no business being a starting corner. You draft Jaycee Horn, you get better there. You sign A.J. Bouye, who was a starter previously, as your nickel. They got better at spots that were big weaknesses last year.”
The voter who ranked the Panthers 16th wondered if any team besides Carolina would have acquired Darnold as its undisputed starter this offseason. He thought Bridgewater would have been better.
“It goes to back to whether you’re a Darnold fan or not,” another voter said of the variance on Carolina. “They were a competitive team last year without McCaffrey. I’m bullish on Matt Rhule, they are going to get (Jeremy) Chinn back in a better position (safety). You got Brian Burns, you got (Yetur) Gross-Matos. There is some talent there, and then you get two games against Atlanta.”
13. Atlanta Falcons
Votes: 11-12-15-12-15 | Avg: 13.0 | Median: 12
Team owner Arthur Blank recently told The Athletic’s Jeff Schultz that he wants new coach Arthur Smith to improve the team’s rushing attack so the Falcons can better control games in second halves. Voters suspect Atlanta will need to keep scoring in second halves to cover for their defense.
“I think Atlanta is a rebuild,” a voter who ranked Atlanta 12th said. “They kept the quarterback, so they chose to go about it differently. I just don’t know what they are defensively. I think (defensive coordinator) Dean Pees is a really good coach, but I see this team having the same problems, just not being able to stop people in second halves, particularly in the fourth quarters.”
14. Chicago Bears
Votes: 12-15-13-14-12 | Avg: 13.2 | Median: 13
The Bears were 8-8 and in the playoffs as the NFC’s seventh seed last season. They replaced quarterback Mitch Trubisky with Andy Dalton and Justin Fields. Yet no voter ranked them higher than 12th in the conference.
“Why would everyone put Chicago so low?” a coach who did not vote in this survey said. “Someone probably spent a lot of time looking at the schedule, but I’d put them ahead of Minnesota, who I think is way too high. I’d put them ahead of Dallas. It’s not going to be long for the kid (Fields) to play, and they will be more explosive with him. I just think they are better than they are given credit for. I saw them twice in preseason and they were running around, flying around pretty good.”
The Bears play the NFL’s toughest schedule of opposing quarterbacks when using 2021 Quarterback Tiers results as a guide. They play four games against Tier 1 quarterbacks, tied for most in the league. They are the only team with zero games against Tier 4 quarterbacks. The gap between Dalton’s average vote and the average for Chicago’s opponents is larger than the gap for any team in the league. Fields, while exciting, is unproven.
“Chicago absolutely should be this low,” a voter said. “You’ve got an unproven first-year defensive coordinator taking over for a couple guys (Chuck Pagano last season, Vic Fangio before that) with a combined 50 years in the league, and they subtracted Kyle Fuller, so there is some uncertainty there. On offense, everyone wants to talk about the quarterbacks, but without the back (Tarik Cohen), they are not explosive enough. All the quarterbacks there are going to find it tough sledding.”
The Bears also have issues on their offensive line.
“I don’t see Andy Dalton in that tier of guys that makes your team better,” a voter said. “If that is where they are going to go, it will be very interesting. They could struggle at quarterback and on the offensive line. That’s a bad combination.”
15. New York Giants
Votes: 15-14-14-15-13 | Avg: 14.2 | Median: 14
The Giants have won the NFC East three times in the past 20 seasons and not since 2011. Their nine-season run without a division title is their longest since a 22-season gap from 1964-1985. They were 11th in the conference last season, spent big in free agency and didn’t get a vote higher than 13th in this poll, despite a weak division and a defense that can be difficult to play against.
“Their defense has a chance, but without Saquon Barkley, an offense built around Daniel Jones does not,” a voter said. “They do a lot of things with weird special teams formations that take up practice time, but their season is riding on some of the basics, like whether they can protect the quarterback.”
If this ranking becomes accurate, the Giants will own a high 2022 draft choice of their own, plus another high pick acquired from Chicago in the draft-day swap that let the Bears select Justin Fields. By then, the Giants should have a better idea whether they need to select a quarterback or can feel good about moving forward with Jones.
“What I like about Daniel Jones is he’s willing to stand in there, stare down the barrel,” a voter said. “They added some weaponry. Getting Saquon back (at some point) will be huge because they can do a better job marrying run with pass. Jones is going to work at it, he’s tough and he can do it physically. Being in the same offense for the second year in a row, he has a chance to take off a little bit. I just don’t know if they can protect him.”
16. Detroit Lions
Votes: 13-16-16-16-16 | Avg: 15.4 | Median: 16
The Lions are easy to write off based on their history and new coach Dan Campbell’s sometimes humorously over-the-top news conferences. One voter did place Detroit a few spots higher than the others, however. This voter cited a strong offensive line that should provide a reliable, important building block for the team as Campbell creates a new identity following a rough run under previous coach Matt Patricia.
“I have Detroit clustered with Philly and the Giants, but think they have the best quarterback of the three,” this voter added.
Another voter said some of the biggest changes to the team could be happening behind the scenes.
“Can the Brad Holmes/Chris Spielman/Dan Campbell trio change the culture from what was, at worst, a non-collaborative, know-it-all New England model?” this voter asked. “This will be multi-year revamp that has already started with replacing high-level non-coaching employees like the trainer.”
An exec who did not vote in this survey noted that Campbell, while appearing rough around the edges and sounding almost like a pro wrestler at times, compared the Lions’ new coach to Billy Summers, the Stephen King character who misleads others into underestimating him. The Lions’ No. 16 ranking here shows no one is overestimating Detroit just yet. Building a strong offensive line is not a bad place to start, however.
I think the Seahawks, 49ers and Saints are overrated here, maybe by a lot.
data
Forbes #1
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Packers, 49ers, Bucs, Rams are my top 4 in the NFC in that order
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See and I think it's way early to say the Rams are third best. Stafford has basically never been a winner. Could be with the talent around him and McVay that he suddenly does something he has never done before but that's a lot of unknown to me.
And when I say talent I don't know that this offense is really even his best offensive cast. Couple solid receivers and that's all really.
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- Apr 7, 2013
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You would think by now he would at least be on the Exempt list.
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Having to carry his salary and a roster spot is just incredible and punitive.
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They have some of the slowest investigations possible. No idea why they don't put him on the exempt list while they continue to investigate.
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