Todd McShay ESPN Senior Writer
As we officially close the door on the
2019 NFL season with the
Kansas City Chiefs' impressive comeback
Super Bowl win, the door to the offseason -- and the
2020 NFL draft -- swings wide open.
A lot has changed since
my December mock, and the pre-draft process continues to roll along. Strong finishes to the
college season upped some prospects' stock, and we learned a good deal about a few upperclassmen during January's
Senior Bowl week. Still, there is much to study on this class, and there's a long way to go before team needs and preferences are finalized, with
free agency right around the corner. And you'd better believe the combine and pro days will impact
player rankings leading into April.
But for now, at the onset of the NFL offseason, here are my predictions for
all 32 first-round picks of the 2020 draft, beginning with the two-win Bengals and culminating with the champs.
1. Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
This shouldn't surprise you, and in case you haven't been paying attention, consider this: 60 touchdown passes, a ridiculous 76.3% completion percentage, an undefeated season, a national title and a Heisman Trophy. There isn't much more Burrow can do to solidify himself as the top quarterback of the draft class, and the Bengals should absolutely take one with the first pick -- especially because veteran
Andy Dalton can be cut without a dead cap hit. Burrow's elite accuracy and fantastic pocket presence are undeniable, but can Cincinnati put him in a position to succeed with a better supporting cast? That will be something to watch during free agency.
2. Washington Redskins
Chase Young, DE, Ohio State
This could be the easiest pick on the board, and considering the Redskins were 10th in the league with 46 sacks, it doesn't have much to do with a particular need. No, this instead has everything to do with the special talent of Young, who has one of the highest grades I've given a player in two decades of scouting. Last year's No. 2 pick and former Buckeyes teammate
Nick Bosa was a difference-maker in Year 1, but the scary truth is that Young is an even better prospect. He can line up opposite
Montez Sweat at defensive end or drop back into a 3-4 outside linebacker role. It doesn't matter -- Young will be in the face of opposing quarterbacks every Sunday. He led the nation with 16.5 sacks in 2019, and
he missed two games.
3. Detroit Lions
Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State
The Lions had the NFL's worst pass defense, allowing 284.4 yards through the air per game, and tied for a league-worst seven interceptions.
Darius Slay is 29 years old,
Justin Coleman fits better in a nickel role and
Rashaan Melvin is a free agent, so Detroit might look to address cornerback with a first-round pick for the first time since 1998 (Terry Fair). Okudah has the size, versatility, quickness and athleticism to be a No. 1 corner in the NFL. Detroit has to fix its porous defense, and getting a high-end defensive back like Okudah here is certainly a good place to start.
4. New York Giants
Isaiah Simmons, OLB, Clemson
I'd love to get second-year quarterback
Daniel Jones a weapon on the outside here, but wide receiver is a deep group and offers plenty of midround options. And quite frankly, defense as a whole is a more serious problem for the Giants. Let's get them a do-it-all linebacker -- their first Round 1 'backer since 1984 (Carl Banks) -- who found his way into just about every statistical category on the Clemson stat sheet. Simmons is what every NFL team dreams of having at its disposal. He can rush the passer, he can stand up against the run and he can drop into coverage. With
Markus Golden and his 10 sacks headed toward free agency, the athletic Simmons could help fill the void.
5. Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
Assuming another QB-needy team doesn't trade up with Detroit or New York to cut in line, Tagovailoa is a really good start for a Miami team looking to aggressively kick-start its rebuild through the draft. Teams are approaching the lefty's hip injury with different levels of cautiousness, but if he's medically cleared, the Dolphins would be getting an exceptional signal-caller. Tagovailoa has elite accuracy and anticipation, but will he recover some of that twitch that made him truly special? A little extra good news in South Beach: Veteran
Ryan Fitzpatrick, who just led the hapless Dolphins past the big, bad Patriots in Week 17 on the road, is in town for another year and would allow the team to ease Tagovailoa into action.
6. Los Angeles Chargers
Jedrick Wills Jr., OT, Alabama
I'm not ruling out Oregon's
Justin Herbert here, as my colleague Mel Kiper Jr.
predicted last week. The Chargers need a quarterback, and Herbert showed why he's capable of leading an NFL offense
at the Senior Bowl, standing out from the pack. But the Chargers could also use some help along the offensive line, and considering that they are among the best in the league at evaluating draft value, they could take one of the premier prospects in the trenches. Wills can be Los Angeles' right tackle or slide in as the right guard replacement for free agent
Michael Schofield III.
7. Carolina Panthers
Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn
Carolina is another possible landing spot for Herbert with the current Panthers QB flux, and the offensive line will be a focal point of the offseason after the team allowed 58 sacks in 2019. But have you seen the list of pending free agents in that front seven?
Gerald McCoy,
Mario Addison,
Bruce Irvin and
Vernon Butler are all headed toward the open market, and
Luke Kuechly is, of course, now retired. New coach Matt Rhule can plug in Brown, a huge 6-foot-5 versatile force on the interior, to help patch a run defense that gave up 143.5 yards per game last season (29th in the NFL).
8. Arizona Cardinals
Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa
The possibility of former Sooners teammate
CeeDee Lamb running routes for
Kyler Murray is going to be something to watch for at No. 8, but don't forget that teams need to protect their quarterback first. The Cardinals gave up 50 sacks this past season (fifth worst in the NFL), not something you want to see when you just invested a No. 1 overall pick on a 5-foot-10 QB. Throw in the fact that they could lose
D.J. Humphries and
Marcus Gilbert and the pass-protection upside of the 6-foot-5 Wirfs starts to make even more sense. Get a difference-maker in front of Murray and then worry about help out wide on Day 2, when plenty of pass-catchers will be waiting to be snatched up.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars
Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina
If you don't know about Kinlaw yet, do yourself a favor and go watch some
highlights from his two days of Senior Day workouts. He is an absolute physical freak with the versatility to play on the interior or off the edge, and he has the power to walk offensive linemen back into the quarterback. The Jaguars missed on
Taven Bryan when they took him in the first round in 2018, and they might not be able to keep
Yannick Ngakoue in northeast Florida next season. Putting Kinlaw next to last year's top-10 pick,
Josh Allen, would help lighten the loss of Ngakoue and shore up a run defense that was the fifth worst in 2019 (139.3 yards per game).
10. Cleveland Browns
Josh Jones, OT, Houston
I hadn't seen enough of Jones before he dominated the trenches all week at the Senior Bowl, but he is a 6-foot-7 behemoth with tons of athleticism.
Greg Robinson's one-year deal is up, and there's an open spot on the left side of that Cleveland line. Quarterback
Baker Mayfield somewhat quietly turned it around in the second half, and it's no coincidence that it came with an improvement in pass protection for the Browns. Buy Mayfield some time and you can bet
Jarvis Landry and
Odell Beckham Jr. will find a way to get open. Louisville's
Mekhi Becton and Georgia's
Andrew Thomas are also potential choices here, but I really like Jones' potential.
11. New York Jets
Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville
This is another clear mix of need and value. First, the Jets allowed 52 sacks in 2019, the fourth most in the NFL. Second, left tackle
Kelvin Beachum is a free agent. Becton and that massive 6-foot-7 frame would not only help protect
Sam Darnold's blind side but also spark a
Le'Veon Bell-led run game that never took off, finishing 31st in the league (78.6 yards per game), ahead of only the Dolphins. It makes a ton of sense, but don't be surprised to see the Jets kick the offensive line problem down the road in favor of finding an impact pass-rusher or shutdown cornerback. The problem is finding one outside the top 10.
12. Las Vegas Raiders
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama
No Raiders wide receiver had 50 catches in 2019, and none had more than 651 yards. Of course, GM Mike Mayock and coach Jon Gruden thought they had their WR1 last summer when they traded for
Antonio Brown, but we all know that didn't go to plan. Enter the top route runner in the draft class in Jeudy. He would immediately give
Derek Carr -- or whoever is throwing the passes in Vegas -- a legitimate threat outside to pair with breakout tight end
Darren Waller. The wide receiver class is deep, but Jeudy is my
No. 1-ranked prospect at the position.
13. Indianapolis Colts
Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
The Colts get a little lucky here with Herbert still on the board, so in this scenario, they put aside other pressing needs like wide receiver (Lamb?), defensive line and defensive back to snag this 6-foot-6 senior with a rocket arm. Indy might not be completely sold that
Jacoby Brissett is its guy, and Herbert has shown he can lead an offense. That Senior Bowl showing did a lot to calm consistency concerns. After using seven of their 10 picks on defense in 2019, the Colts can't pass on this tremendous value at a premier position. One more thing to consider: Brissett is signed through the 2020 season, meaning Indianapolis wouldn't have to throw Herbert to the wolves out of the gate.
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14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
K'Lavon Chaisson, DE, LSU
Pass rushing was a strength for the Bucs in 2019, but they are now faced with free agency for
Shaquil Barrett,
Jason Pierre-Paul,
Ndamukong Suh,
Carl Nassib and
Beau Allen -- and expect Barrett to get paid after his incredible season. No matter how it shakes out, Tampa Bay will likely now need help getting after the QB off the edge, and a strong late-season push from Chaisson (4.5 sacks in his final four games) has him in play in this range. He'd bring a lot of speed to the front. But don't rule out a quarterback if GM Jason Licht decides
Jameis Winston isn't in the team's 2020 plans. If Herbert is already off the board, Utah State's
Jordan Love, who is rising after the Senior Bowl, could be another option.
15. Denver Broncos
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma
I liked what I saw out of quarterback
Drew Lock at the end of last season, and Denver might want to think about getting him some help along the offensive line or at wide receiver. And wouldn't you know it, Lamb is the best available player still on the board. He gets great separation and then creates yardage after the catch. Opposite
Courtland Sutton -- who continues to look like the real deal -- Lamb brings another piece of the offensive puzzle to Mile High. But there's also concern in the secondary, where
Chris Harris Jr. and
Justin Simmons are set to enter free agency. Florida corner
CJ Henderson, LSU safety
Grant Delpit and Alabama safety
Xavier McKinney deserve more than a passing thought at No. 15.
16. Atlanta Falcons
A.J. Epenesa, DE, Iowa
Vic Beasley Jr. won't be back,
Adrian Clayborn might not either and
Takkarist McKinley could have only one more season in Atlanta if the Falcons decide against picking up his fifth-year option. On a defense that produced 28 sacks, tied for the second fewest in the NFL, that only magnifies edge rushing as the team's most critical need. Epenesa had eight sacks in his final five games at Iowa and is great at getting his arms in passing lanes. The Falcons could think about a defensive back, but even though I see Epenesa as a bit of a reach here, he is their best bet in addressing a major team weakness.
17. Dallas Cowboys
Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama
2020 NFL draft coverage
Jerry Jones has quite an offseason ahead of him.
Dak Prescott,
Amari Cooper,
Robert Quinn and
Byron Jones headline a talented -- and expensive -- list of players headed toward free agency. If cornerback Jones is one of the odd men out, a secondary that mostly held passing offenses at bay but struggled to produce takeaways gets weaker. And the Cowboys have needed a safety since the days when Roy Williams and Darren Woodson roamed the defensive backfield. McKinney has some range as a deep safety -- he pulled in three interceptions on the back end for Bama last season.
18. Miami Dolphins (from PIT)
Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia
Step 1: Draft a quarterback with sky-high potential but plenty of injury worries (see: Tagovailoa, No. 5 overall). Step 2? Maybe get someone to protect him. Thomas is raw, and this qualifies as a little high for him, but he has some power to his game. And after surrendering 58 sacks, tied for the most in the NFL, the Dolphins can't really afford to ignore the line any longer. Miami has one more first-rounder (and two second-rounders) to dive in on other needs, including edge rusher, cornerback and the interior offensive line.
19. Las Vegas Raiders (from CHI)
CJ Henderson, CB, Florida
With Jeudy taking care of receiving woes, it's time to look at the defense for the Raiders' fifth Round 1 pick in the past two years.
Trayvon Mullen showed some potential in his rookie season, but
Nevin Lawson and
Daryl Worley are both free agents, so Vegas -- man, I'm still getting used to saying that -- is going to have to get a playmaker in coverage. Henderson broke up 11 passes for Florida this past season, an ability that will be welcomed by a Raiders defense that managed only nine picks and was bottom 10 in pass defense (256.7 yards per game).
20. Jacksonville Jaguars (from LAR)
Austin Jackson, OT, USC
Kinlaw cleans up the defensive front, but the offensive side of the trenches warrants a look, too. The Jaguars struck gold when they caught the sliding
Jawaan Taylor early in the second round last year, and they shouldn't be done working on the unit. The desperate need for more help there means they'd be OK with reaching for Jackson, who is my
No. 46 prospect. The 6-foot-6 junior is raw, but if given some time to develop, he can contribute in pass protection for whomever Doug Marrone starts under center.
21. Philadelphia Eagles
Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama
Zero Eagles receivers found their way to 500 yards in 2019,
Nelson Agholor is a free agent,
Alshon Jeffery will be 30 in two weeks and
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside had a limited 10-catch impact in his rookie campaign.
Carson Wentz likes to air it out, but he didn't have the right personnel to do so. Coach Doug Pederson thought he had an answer in the vertical game with
DeSean Jackson, but an abdominal injury limited the veteran speedster to 62 snaps. Ruggs, though, is a human torch -- he could run in the 4.2s at the combine -- and immediately gives Wentz a weapon in the pass game outside of
Zach Ertz,
Dallas Goedert and
Miles Sanders.
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22. Buffalo Bills
D'Andre Swift, RB, Georgia
Even with
John Brown and
Cole Beasley combining for 1,838 receiving yards in 2019, Buffalo could use an upgrade in the receiving corps (Clemson's
Tee Higgins could be an interesting fit). And with
Jordan Phillips and
Shaq Lawson both headed for free agency, no returning lineman had more than five sacks last season. But I just love Swift's explosiveness, and adding a dynamic playmaker like him to a backfield that already includes
Devin Singletary could really make this run-oriented offense pop in 2020. Plus, you can't discount Swift's pass-catching ability -- he could be a great three-down back.
23. New England Patriots
Grant Delpit, S, LSU
New England is a little more accustomed to picking at No. 31 or 32, but the bright side of not playing in the Super Bowl for the first time in four years is the opportunity to add a quality prospect with an earlier selection. Some might lean toward
Tom Brady's heir -- maybe Love. Some might think about shoring up the offensive line in case
Joe Thuney leaves Foxborough. But I'm going with the rangy Delpit, especially with
Devin McCourty not a lock to be back. Delpit didn't have the best season at LSU, but Bill Belichick and the Patriots would get the most out of him. The Pats need to keep that defense strong.
24. New Orleans Saints
Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson
Outside of
Michael Thomas,
Jared Cook and
Alvin Kamara, what do
Drew Brees and the Saints' offense really have in the passing game? Not much.
Ted Ginn Jr. was the second-most productive wide receiver behind Thomas with just 421 yards, and the next best was
Tre'Quan Smith with a measly 234 yards. Whether or not it's Brees throwing the passes in 2020 -- yeah, quarterback is a position to watch here, too -- the Saints have to address that lack of depth. The 6-foot-4 Higgins can make guys miss with his strength and will come down with anything thrown near him. He averaged a hair shy of 20 yards per catch this past season for the Tigers.
25. Minnesota Vikings
Ross Blacklock, DT, TCU
I really like Blacklock's tape, and he's flying under the radar ahead of the combine later this month. Yes, Minnesota piled on 48 sacks last season and was in the top half of the league in run defense, but
Everson Griffen is a free agent, and
Linval Joseph isn't getting any younger at 31. The big, athletic Blacklock can help that front remain strong. Cornerback and offensive line are also positions to keep an eye on for the Vikings, but I didn't love the value here -- though Auburn's
Noah Igbinoghene is a possibility.
26. Miami Dolphins (from HOU)
Zack Baun, OLB, Wisconsin
Miami is back for a third turn, and as promised, it checks another box here with a quick, versatile edge rusher in Baun. His game jumps off the tape, and his 12.5 sacks show what he can do when he's turned loose on the quarterback. But Baun is no one-trick pony, displaying the ability to play in coverage, too. Find the ball and you'll find Baun. The Dolphins sacked the quarterback a league-low 23 times in 2019, and
Taco Charlton led the team with five. By taking Baun, they continue what they started in 2018 in rebuilding that defensive line (first-round pick of
Christian Wilkins) while also taking one of the best players available.
27. Seattle Seahawks
Terrell Lewis, OLB, Alabama
Along with Baun, Lewis helped himself a lot with a good week at the Senior Bowl. He might need some time to develop, but there's no denying his pass-rush talent and burst coming around the corner when chasing the quarterback. He registered 16 QB hurries this past season at Alabama. And considering the lengthy list of front-seven free-agents-to-be on the Seattle roster, this pick makes all the sense in the world.
Jadeveon Clowney's one-year franchise tag is up, and
Jarran Reed,
Ziggy Ansah,
Quinton Jefferson and
Al Woods are all set to join him on the open market. When you tally all of 28 sacks (tied for second worst) and then lose pretty much your entire defensive line, you'd better be fixating on pass-rushers in April.
28. Baltimore Ravens
Kenneth Murray, ILB, Oklahoma
The focus in 2019 was on
Lamar Jackson and a dynamic offense, but the defensive unit quietly did more than hold its own, finishing in the top six in both pass and run defense. A trade for
Marcus Peters added a jolt to the secondary, and
Matthew Judon just missed double-digit sacks. What was missing? A chase-him-down, bring-him-down linebacker in the middle of the defense.
Patrick Onwuasor and
Josh Bynes led the front seven with just 64 and 46 tackles, respectively, and they're both free agents. While Murray doesn't have ideal coverage skills, he has great speed and tackling ability, manifested in his 102 tackles this past season at Oklahoma.
29. Tennessee Titans
Noah Igbinoghene, CB, Auburn
The Titans' pass defense wasn't very good in 2019, closing the year in the bottom 10 in yards allowed per game and hauling in just nine interceptions. Igbinoghene might not have had any picks of his own this past season, but he's instinctive and fast.
Logan Ryan might not re-sign, meaning there's an opening opposite
Adoree' Jackson at cornerback, and Igbinoghene is the best player still on my board (No. 19 overall). Despite that seemingly perfect need-value match, it's possible that Tennessee opts to draft a running back if it can't bring back
Derrick Henry (Ohio State's
J.K. Dobbins, perhaps), a tight end (Notre Dame's
Cole Kmet is my highest-ranked prospect there) or an outside linebacker to ease the loss of
Kamalei Correa to free agency.
30. Green Bay Packers
Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU
Davante Adams is a weapon, and
Aaron Jones proved himself as a threat in the receiving game, but they simply can't continue to do it alone. The last time
Aaron Rodgers had multiple 1,000-yard receivers was 2014, when the quarterback was 31 and alternated spraying passes to Jordy Nelson,
Randall Cobb and then-rookie Adams. Now Rodgers is 36 and forced to make due with the likes of
Allen Lazard and
Marquez Valdes-Scantling opposite Adams. Get the man some help! I've been saying it
for a year now! Jefferson tied for first in college football with 111 catches as Burrow's main target at LSU, and he excels in adjusting his routes to find windows and generating late separation. Green Bay will have multiple receivers to choose from even if Jefferson is taken earlier, so there is really no excuse to pass on a glaring weakness yet again.
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31. San Francisco 49ers
Laviska Shenault Jr., WR, Colorado
The Niners will be looking for a way back to the Super Bowl after a devastating blown lead against the Chiefs. A good start is adding the draft's ultimate offensive Swiss Army knife. Coach Kyle Shanahan schemed up motion on nearly 70% of plays during the regular season, the highest rate in the NFL. As he did with rookie
Deebo Samuel, he can line up Shenault anywhere, get him moving and get creative. The Colorado receiver made 56 catches and carried the ball 23 times in 2019, and his after-the-catch ability is off the charts. Toss in the fact that
Emmanuel Sanders is a free agent and San Francisco has a quality addition here. But it's worth noting that the Niners won't pick again until Round 5, so moving out of Day 1 entirely to recover some picks might be the best option.
32. Kansas City Chiefs
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ohio State
Watching
Damien Williams scamper for a 38-yard Super Bowl-clinching touchdown run late in the fourth quarter, you might not remember that the six-year vet led the Chiefs in rushing in 2019 ... with 498 yards. Indeed, the high-octane Kansas City offense ran through the arm of
Patrick Mahomes, leaving a No. 23-ranked run game averaging less than 100 yards per game in its wake. Williams flashed at times, and 2019 sixth-rounder
Darwin Thompson has promise, but coach Andy Reid covets a unique playmaker like Dobbins at the position. Dobbins is tough to bring down and quick when he hits the hole, breaking 2,000 rushing yards this past season and scoring 21 times on the ground. There isn't any cornerback value here (maybe LSU's
Kristian Fulton), so even with three key players at the position hitting free agency, I'm opting to catch the run game up with Mahomes' unstoppable passing attack.
I'd be shocked if Herbert went in the top 15
