2018 Random NFL Stuff thread . . .

[Cotton]

Great.

That changes absolutely nothing I said. It is misleading to say "we only win 7-9 games a year." We have done much better recently, with the explainable down year due to serious injuries weighing us down in 2014, and the slightly less explainable but still relevant 9 win season with key losses at RB, LT and LB.

We are one year removed from winning 4 games. Your point is dumb.

 

[Rev]

Good old injury excuse.

 

[jsmith6919]

Think about my point a little harder until you realize why what you are saying is irrelevant.

Think about my point a little harder until you realize the SB is all that matters

 

[jsmith6919]

Good old injury excuse.

Meanwhile Philly won with Foles

 

[Smitty]

The law of averages is lost with you, I assume.

The law of averages is just that, averages. It's not what actually happens. It's an average of what has happened.

You could say "we won 7-9 games every year" if you are talking about 2011-2013, a period of time when the defense and OL was getting overhauled, by the way.

But in the last 4 seasons we have been 12-4, 4-12, 13-3, and 9-7.

Averages are pointless in that discussion. Wow, we only average 9.5 wins a year. But that doesn't actually tell the story, because Garrett's last 4 years have really been pretty damn good, other than the one year we lost our starting QB and WR for most of the year, and had not replaced our starting RB adequately in the offseason.

 

[Smitty]

We are one year removed from winning 4 games. Your point is dumb.

Uh, what? No we aren't.

 

[Cotton]

The law of averages is just that, averages. It's not what actually happens. It's an average of what has happened.

You could say "we won 7-9 games every year" if you are talking about 2011-2013, a period of time when the defense and OL was getting overhauled, by the way.

But in the last 4 seasons we have been 12-4, 4-12, 13-3, and 9-7.

Averages are pointless in that discussion. Wow, we only average 9.5 wins a year. But that doesn't actually tell the story, because Garrett's last 4 years have really been pretty damn good, other than the one year we lost our starting QB and WR for most of the year, and had not replaced our starting RB adequately in the offseason.

So, averages don't apply when you go 12-4 one year and 4-12 the next?

GTFO.

 

[Smitty]

Think about my point a little harder until you realize the SB is all that matters

Well then Jeff Fisher still has zero just like Garrett.

The larger point, though, is twofold, being

1) OTHER than that run to the Super Bowl, Fisher was either identical to or inferior to Garrett's numbers in the beginning of his career, so to say it was a resume that "Garrett can only dream of" is incorrect, since he actually is relatively close to it or better, and

2) Checking past production is helpful when projecting future success, and it is blatantly obvious at this point that Fisher's run to the Super Bowl was a fluke he could not duplicate; and the by and large production of his career, if we're projecting going forward (or we were projecting going forward in like 2014 when we were arguing about all this), the conclusion is that Garrett and Fisher are mostly equal.

As is Garrett and most of these run of the mill recycled head coaches.

 

[Cotton]

Uh, what? No we aren't.

You are right, under Garrett's tutelage we went 4-12 3 seasons ago. I was so off. I would guess you still feel that is okay from an "average" coach.

 

[Smitty]

So, averages don't apply when you go 12-4 one year and 4-12 the next?

GTFO.

It would be stupid to say "we went 8-8 both years," wouldn't it?

You didn't go 8-8 both years. One year was excellently coached at 12-4 and the other year was poorly coached, or it had something else go wrong.

That's the accurate description of what happened.

 

[Smitty]

You are right, under Garrett's tutelage we went 4-12 3 seasons ago. I was so off.

Ok.... and there was a pretty good reason why that season was so different than the one before it and the two since then, wasn't there?

 

[Cowboysrock55]

So, averages don't apply when you go 12-4 one year and 4-12 the next?

GTFO.

No you ignore the bad ones and only count the good. Well unless you're talking about another head coach. In that case you ignore the superbowl and count the bad seasons.

 

[Cotton]

Well then Jeff Fisher still has zero just like Garrett.

The larger point, though, is twofold, being

1) OTHER than that run to the Super Bowl, Fisher was either identical to or inferior to Garrett's numbers in the beginning of his career, so to say it was a resume that "Garrett can only dream of" is incorrect, since he actually is relatively close to it or better, and

2) Checking past production is helpful when projecting future success, and it is blatantly obvious at this point that Fisher's run to the Super Bowl was a fluke he could not duplicate; and the by and large production of his career, if we're projecting going forward (or we were projecting going forward in like 2014 when we were arguing about all this), the conclusion is that Garrett and Fisher are mostly equal.

As is Garrett and most of these run of the mill recycled head coaches.

 

[jsmith6919]

Well then Jeff Fisher still has zero just like Garrett.

The larger point, though, is twofold, being

1) OTHER than that run to the Super Bowl, Fisher was either identical to or inferior to Garrett's numbers in the beginning of his career, so to say it was a resume that "Garrett can only dream of" is incorrect, since he actually is relatively close to it or better, and

2) Checking past production is helpful when projecting future success, and it is blatantly obvious at this point that Fisher's run to the Super Bowl was a fluke he could not duplicate; and the by and large production of his career, if we're projecting going forward (or we were projecting going forward in like 2014 when we were arguing about all this), the conclusion is that Garrett and Fisher are mostly equal.

As is Garrett and most of these run of the mill recycled head coaches.

 

[Cotton]

Ok.... and there was a pretty good reason why that season was so different than the one before it and the two since then, wasn't there?

Okay, Spags.

 

[Smitty]

No you ignore the bad ones and only count the good. Well unless you're talking about another head coach. In that case you ignore the superbowl and count the bad seasons.

No one is ignoring them; but again, if we are projecting what is likely to happen moving forward, you are not counting on outliers like losing your starting QB and #1 WR all season again. If Romo doesn't get hurt that year, what's the worst we possibly go, considering we were 3-1 when he played? like 9-7? 10-6? At worst.

Conversely, if we were hiring Fisher, probably not too wise to count on him going on another magical Super Bowl run, given his wider resume, especially his recent resume, yes?

 

[Cotton]

It would be stupid to say "we went 8-8 both years," wouldn't it?

You didn't go 8-8 both years. One year was excellently coached at 12-4 and the other year was poorly coached, or it had something else go wrong.

That's the accurate description of what happened.

So, we just disregard the 4-12 year? And, one year was not "excellently coached". He got carried.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

No one is ignoring them; but again, if we are projecting what is likely to happen moving forward, you are not counting on outliers like losing your starting QB and #1 WR all season again.

Conversely, if we were hiring Fisher, probably not too wise to count on him going on another magical Super Bowl run, given his wider resume, especially his recent resume, yes?

You're picking and choosing what you want to consider an outlier to skew the statistics to meet the conclusion you have already made up in your mind. You can't pick and choose. That's absolutely silly. Otherwise Garrett's 12 and 13 win seasons also become an outlier and you're stuck with all those 8 and 9 win seasons.

 

[Cotton]

You're picking and choosing what you want to consider an outlier to skew the statistics to meet the conclusion you have already made up in your mind. You can't pick and choose. That's absolutely silly. Otherwise Garrett's 12 and 13 win seasons also become an outlier and you're stuck with all those 8 and 9 win seasons.

Or the 4-12 season.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

Or the 4-12 season.

I mean if you want to call his 4 win season an outlier then his 13 win season sure as shit is an outlier too.