NFL mock draft: Resetting Rounds 1 and 2 after free agency
Eric Edholm By Eric Edholm
With free agency 2015 on life support and the majority of the top talents off the board, NFL teams’ needs have been reshuffled. Now the draft has come squarely into focus, with only a few major veteran options — hello, Adrian Peterson — likely to seismically alter the course from this point on.
Here’s a look (without any projected trades, mind you) of how the first two rounds could go with about five weeks until the draft:
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Florida State QB Jameis Winston
Lovie Smith is playing coy with his team’s draft board, and though a team source told Shutdown Corner no final decision has been made on the pick, it’s believed to be Winston. Maybe the Bucs get blown away with a trade offer, but that’s not likely to happen. Instead, they’ll roll the dice on greatness and find ways to protect Winston and shield him from the distractions of being in the NFL spotlight.
2. Tennessee Titans — USC DT-DE Leonard Williams
Our gut feeling right now is that the Titans are not enamored with Marcus Mariota. Short of finding a long-term solution at QB, they’ll instead continue to upgrade a front seven that should be markedly better with Williams, Jurrell Casey, Derrick Morgan and Brian Orakpo and Co. on the attack. The Titans don’t have the most daunting opposing quarterbacks on their schedule this season and should hope to win close games with defense.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars — Florida DE Dante Fowler Jr.
Finding an edge rusher will be one of the primary goals for Gus Bradley, David Caldwell and crew after a fruitful free-agency period. They are seeking to add depth across the board, but they need someone to come rip off the front side and live in the backfield. Even if he plays only 40-50 snaps a game, Fowler and his hot motor will be a huge upgrade.
4. Oakland Raiders — West Virginia WR Kevin White
The Raiders didn't land a front-line receiver in free agency and will need to find someone who can help Derek Carr grow. White has been the prospect who has ascended the most in the past calendar year and he fits the old-school Raiders mold of the height-weight-speed prospect who also plays angry. A perfect fit, just edging out the smoother, less explosive Amari Cooper.
5. Washington Redskins — Clemson OLB Vic Beasley
New Redskins general manager Scot McCloughan surprised many when he took Aldon Smith with the seventh pick in the draft in 2011 and he could open eyes again by taking Beasley here over a few more hyped pass-rush prospects. Beasley might not have Smith’s length, but he has the rare burst to give the Redskins its first pair of 10-sack players (with Ryan Kerrigan coming off the other side) since 2009.
6. New York Jets — Georgia RB Todd Gurley
Shocked? Don’t be. Oh, the Jets are not likely to take Gurley, coming off ACL surgery, this high in the draft. But the Jets brass — which are working out Mariota at week’s end up in Oregon — won’t take a quarterback high if they are not blown away. Instead, they’ll select the player who could be the quarterback’s best friend in time if Gurley's knee looks good at the Indianapolis medical re-test next month. Although I am not projecting trades, the Cleveland Browns could be a team interested in moving into this spot for Mariota, and Gurley still could be on the board when the Jets swing back around. There's also a rumble that the Miami Dolphins are high on Gurley.
7. Chicago Bears — Washington DT Danny Shelton
Jay Ratliff, who turns 34 at the end of the preseason, technically could play the nose. But why pass on a three-down defensive lineman who never came off the field for the Huskies and who could help solidify a position that has been a sore spot? Shelton is a two-gap hydrant, and flanked by Lamarr Houston, Ray McDonald, Ego Ferguson, Will Sutton and Jarvis Jenkins, the Bears might actually — gasp — not be a wreck against the run.
8. Atlanta Falcons — Nebraska OLB-DE Randy Gregory
The Falcons' free-agent edge signings have been anything but edgy. Brooks Reed? Please. Give us Gregory, the mantis-like rusher who doesn’t play as fast as you’d think a 235-pounder would, and his tape can be inconsistent, but his upside is undeniable. Gregory also has a little dog in him, which is more than you can say for half this Falcons defense, which is seeking a transplant. Dan Quinn could use more hombres, just like he had in Seattle.
9. New York Giants — Stanford OT Andrus Peat
Hardest pick I had to make. Could I see them going Peat or La’el Collins, whose guard flexibility might be a tipping point? Of course. Would a rush end or linebacker make sense? Indeed. What about a safety, given the enormous need there? Sure, but general manager Jerry Reese doesn’t tend to reach for players such as Landon Collins. In the end I settled on Peat, who could be some teams’ fourth-rated tackle but might appeal to the Giants for his right-left tackle capability, his maturity and readiness to play now and for the team’s need to give better sanctuary for Eli Manning.
10. St. Louis Rams — Alabama WR Amari Cooper
They almost can’t screw this up. Jeff Fisher’s love for SEC players combined with the Rams’ annual need for a receiver who can make a play on his own come together in a no-brainer pick. You want to trade for an occasionally inaccurate quarterback in Nick Foles? Well, it certainly looks a lot better with Cooper running down his passes. He can run the full route tree, line up all over the lot and has No. 1 “X” receiver potential.
11. Minnesota Vikings — Iowa OT-OG Brandon Scherff
The vogue thing to do is project them a running back, in lieu of some future Adrian Peterson trade. Well, that’s not us. Instead, we’ll project the Vikings to seek a major upgrade elsewhere: at guard, where Charlie Johnson and Vlad Ducasse were bad a year ago and where Joe Berger is best served as a first man off the bench. Brandon Fusco’s return helps, and perhaps 2014 draft pick David Yankey can play eventually. But the bull-strong Scherff could be a Day 1 starter inside or at right tackle once Phil Loadholt is dumped (his contract is up after 2016, but he could be cut after this season without a major hit).
12. Cleveland Browns — Oregon QB Marcus Mariota
We admit it’s not likely Mariota will float softly to the Browns here, but we’ll say that they are the most likely ones to end up with him should he get by the Jets at No. 6. The Browns appear to feel as safe about Johnny Manziel at quarterback as they do about Justin Gilbert at cornerback, which is to say not very much. If it means trading up to secure a player they know and respect (QB coach Kevin O’Connell has worked with Mariota closely), then so be it.
13. New Orleans Saints — Missouri OLB-DE Shane Ray
Ray probably would have come off the board sooner had he not been hurt and unable to participate in the scouting combine, where fellow rushers Beasley and Bud Dupree put on a show. The Saints would have to be thrilled to land a pass rusher with the kind of energy and aggressiveness as Ray here. In time, he could be a high-impact defender and a perfect match for what Sean Payton and Rob Ryan want in their rebuilt defense.
14. Miami Dolphins — Louisville WR Devante Parker
Parker fills the need of the bigger, outside-the-numbers receiver the Dolphins still lack and a great intermediate complement to Jarvis Landry working underneath and Kenny Stills going deep. That allows the passing game to cover all three levels and give emerging quarterback Ryan Tannehill a game-changing talent in what will be his most important season to date.
15. San Francisco 49ers — Oregon DL Arik Armstead
With the possible retirement of Justin Smith, the release of Ray McDonald and the incomplete returns of Tank Carradine, the 49ers’ bulwark could use reinforcement. They signed Darnell Dockett as a stopgap improvement, and he could help the still-emerging Armstead learn what it takes to be a pro.
16. Houston Texans — LSU OT La’el Collins
Collins can play tackle or guard and likely would be a Day 1 starter inside at guard for this team. He’s tough, quiet, businesslike and packs a big wallop for a player who is not massive. Collins is especially tough in the run game and can assist an offense that likely will remain ground-heavy as it seeks to establish an identity in the passing game.
17. San Diego Chargers — UCLA QB Brett Hundley
This is a stunner. But start the talk about Philip Rivers leaving after this season. Coincidence, eh? Rivers was drafted in Round 1 when Drew Brees was the Chargers’ entrenched starter prior to his contract ending, and history could be playing out again. Interestingly, Hundley reached out to Rivers for advice on how to be a pro and break down film. Chargers head coach Mike McCoy can hit up his former NFC South rival, Bruins head coach Jim Mora for info on Hundley. Hundley must get faster and more decisive in his reads to be a successful rhythm quarterback in the NFL, but he’ll have a year to learn from two good quarterback minds in McCoy and Frank Reich. Is this a reach? It looks that way, but the Chargers might not have much of a choice.
18. Kansas City Chiefs — Miami OT Ereck Flowers
With Jeremy Maclin on board for Andy Reid’s offense, it is not imperative that the Chiefs reach for a receiver here if they don’t want to. Instead, we’ll project them to take a dancing-bear type in Flowers, who fits the Reid mold for linemen and can factor in at guard and tackle. Flowers can be grabby and needs to work on his pass protection, but this could be an excellent player in time with one of the best groomers of OL talent.
19. Cleveland Browns (from Buffalo Bills) — Florida State OL Cameron Erving
The former defensive tackle turned offensive tackle turned center in college has unique versatility and appears pegged to be an NFL starter on the inside. Although the team has Alex Mack, fresh off a huge extension a year ago, at center, the Browns can walk away after the 2015 season and not owe him a dime in dead money. Erving can project to either guard position, too, and could help make a great group up front with emerging star Joel Bitonio.
20. Philadelphia Eagles — Michigan State CB Trae Waynes
Size, speed and man-coverage ability make Waynes very appealing to Chip Kelly and defensive coordinator Bill Davis, who played a lot of Cover 1 a year ago but didn’t have the cover guys to pull it off. Waynes was put on an island in Pat Narduzzi’s demanding scheme a year ago and was mostly great, seeming to struggle only in off coverage against quicker receivers on short stuff. Clean that up and Waynes could be an All-Pro.
21. Cincinnati Bengals — Alabama S Landon Collins
What do you get for the team that has everything (except a quarterback)? A quarterback! OK, short of that, the Bengals take a top-tier talent and athlete who fits the mold of recent college safeties who have seen their limitations come to light in the NFL. Collins, though, has good playmaking traits and could be a good starter in time. Starting Bengals safeties George Iloka and Reggie Nelson both are heading into the final years of their deals, and the depth behind them is barren with Taylor Mays likely gone.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers — Kentucky OLB Alvin “Bud” Dupree
The Steelers’ brass was at Dupree’s pro day, when he put on a show. (Including head coach Mike Tomlin and GM Kevin Colbert, who wined and dined Dupree at dinner that night.) With Jason Worilds retired and Jarvis Jones not yet fulfilling his potential, the Steelers need an edge disruptor. Dupree has the traits to be a read-and-react playmaker on the outside, even if he might never be a 12-sack player.
23. Detroit Lions — Texas DT Malcom Brown
This would be a nice fit alongside Haloti Ngata in the Lions’ remade line. Brown can penetrate and rush the passer from the “under” slot while Ngata occupies multiple blockers and holds the fort. With Ngata drawing double teams, Brown can do his best work against single blocking. There are quality guards on each of the NFC North opponents, and the Lions try to counter that with Browns’ penetrative skills.
24. Arizona Cardinals — Virginia OLB Eli Harold
The Cardinals have been looking for a power runner to complement Andre Ellington this offseason and provide a nice play-action generator for Carson Palmer, but not here — not unless Gurley were to fall. Instead, we’ll project the angular rusher Harold who can fill an edge-rushing void and find a role almost immediately.
25. Carolina Panthers — Florida OT D.J. Humphries
The Charlotte native grew up a short car ride from Bank of America Stadium and could be a perfect positional and mentality fit for what the Panthers need and seek in their players. The coaches and scouts got to know him at a dinner recently and can plug him in at either tackle spot as a fiery and athletic competitor.
26. Baltimore Ravens — ex-Washington CB Marcus Peters
The Ravens will gamble on a good-talent/questionable-character player when Ozzie Newsome can peel back skin and look into their heart. What Newsome might see is a competitor who made mistakes with the Huskies because of immaturity and arrogance but one who has tried to atone for those during the pre-draft process with his hat-in-hand approach to NFL teams.
27. Dallas Cowboys — Wake Forest CB Kevin Johnson
Mo Claiborne might be a lost cause, Brandon Carr is a financial albatross and Orlando Scandrick, the Cowboys’ best corner, is best-suited to play inside. That means the Cowboys will have to eschew the big splash and attack a need with a player who shows some fire and vinegar that hearkens back to the Cowboys of yore. Johnson plays bigger than his size and could be a fine NFL corner.
28. Denver Broncos — Florida State NT Eddie Goldman
The loss of Terrance Knighton leaves nose tackle as a big void, one that Sylvester Williams isn’t best-suited to fill. New defensive coordinator Wade Phillips will run his preferred 3-4 system, and he tends to favor more one-gapping, gap-shooting nose tackles to play over the center. That’s why the edge here goes to Goldman over Phillips’ namesake …
29. Indianapolis Colts — Oklahoma NT Jordan Phillips
The Colts have sought more big bodies up front to help stop the run, which has loomed as the defensive Achilles heel. Josh Chapman might turn out to be a good rotational player, but that should not stop GM Ryan Grigson from pulling the trigger on Phillips, who has passed teams’ medical checks. That means the physically blessed nose — even with inconsistent tape — should be off the board by this point.
30. Green Bay Packers — Florida State CB P.J. Williams
GM Ted Thompson is able to sync need and talent here with a competitive corner who is capable of playing inside or out and has good No. 2 potential. He has swagger and make-up speed and fill multiple roles. Like Tramon Williams, one of the men he’d be helping replace in Green Bay, P.J. Williams can be a bit handsy and will need to learn proper NFL technique, but he’s a fiery football player who is a nice fit.
31. New Orleans Saints (from Seattle Seahawks) — ex-Missouri WR Dorial Green-Beckham
The Saints have been sniffing around the draft’s bigger receivers, and they could hit a home run here with DGB if they’re convinced that he has matured and will be able to handle a city with a lot of distractions. Retaining Marques Colston would help provide Green-Beckham a good mentor; Ray, his former Mizzou teammate, can give him some familiarity, too. The Saints could help replace the Jimmy Graham route tree in a creative way, splitting up his role in the offense with DBG and Josh Hill and still stay dangerous.
32. New England Patriots — Washington LB Shaq Thompson
The Patriots could use help on the offensive and defensive lines, but Bill Belichick can’t help pulling the trigger here on a versatile, intriguing piece capable of filling a variety of roles. For years, he has been seeking a bigger safety type of player — a hybrid linebacker-safety — to cover backs and tight ends and use as a mismatch player. Thompson might be it, and his slow 40-yard dash puts him in the position for the Patriots to snag a top-20 talent who might one day replace Jerod Mayo (whose contract might need to be addressed). And hey, Thompson is also a dynamite special-teamer and might also factor in as a running back. No one squeezes more from the 53-man roster than Belichick.
ROUND 2
33. Tennessee Titans — Pitt OT T.J. Clemmings
First-round talent could be a Day 1 starter for a team wanting to re-establish a ground game.
34. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — UCLA DE Owamagbe Odighizuwa
The Bucs went after Greg Hardy but end up finding a cheaper, less concerning alternative as a rusher.
35. Oakland Raiders — Mississippi State DE Preston Smith
Like the Derek Carr pick a year ago, this could end up being one of the best values of the draft early in Round 2.
36. Jacksonville Jaguars — Florida State CB Ronald Darby
Some believe they could look at a running back here, but we’ll project them a gifted corner in need of polish.
37. New York Jets — Washington OLB Hau’oli Kikaha
If they pass on an edge rusher in Round 1, they might not be able to resist one here.
38. Washington Redskins — South Carolina OG A.J. Cann
A blue-collar guard who fits what Jay Gruden wants in a run blocker. Day 1 starter.
39. Chicago Bears — Arizona State WR Jaelen Strong
We were this close to projecting them Amari Cooper in Round 1, so we’ll come back with a receiver here.
40. New York Giants — Utah CB Eric Rowe
Could also project to safety, which he played previously.
41. St. Louis Rams — Oregon OT Jake Fisher
First-round type of talent fits the athletic mold the Rams seek up front.
42. Atlanta Falcons — Minnesota TE Maxx Williams
Defensive help still needed, but Williams fills the Tony Gonzalez void nicely.
43. Cleveland Browns — Michigan WR-TE Devin Funchess
Losing Jordan Cameron, the Browns need another big athlete on the outside to throw to.
44. New Orleans Saints — UCLA ILB Eric Kendricks
An absolute steal at this point, Kendricks would be an upgrade over Curtis Lofton.
45. Minnesota Vikings — Mississippi State LB Benadrick McKinney
The Vikings get a versatile, instinctive
46. San Francisco 49ers — TCU LB Paul Dawson
The run on inside linebackers continue with this feisty, athletically limited playmaker.
47. Miami Dolphins — Connecticut CB Byron Jones
The Dolphins never shy away from combine stars, but Jones can play ball, too.
48. San Diego Chargers — Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon
Prediction: The Chargers will draft a running back in the first or second round. This works well.
49. Kansas City Chiefs — Miami WR Phillip Dorsett
Think of him as DeSean Jackson without the head case.
50. Buffalo Bills — Baylor QB Bryce Petty
If Rex Ryan is coming to Waco to scout you, he’s interested. A good talent, personality fit.
51. Houston Texans — USC WR Nelson Agholor
Could be a surprisingly productive receiver in Bill O’Brien’s offense.
52. Philadelphia Eagles — Central Florida WR Breshard Perriman
Big, physical receiver who can run — just have to work on those drops.
53. Cincinnati Bengals — Stanford CB Alex Carter
Nearly the entire secondary is up for free agency after this season, so depth needed.
54. Detroit Lions — Indiana RB Tevin Coleman
The Lions have been mining through the RB class to find a starting-caliber talent.
55. Arizona Cardinals — Boise State RB Jay Ajayi
A perfect, physical fit in Bruce Arians’ offense to complement Andre Ellington.
56. Pittsburgh Steelers — Texas A&M OT Cedric Ogbuehi
Breno Giacomini was a free-agent miss and might have only 2015 to change that.
57. Carolina Panthers — Ohio State WR Devin Smith
Deep speed and special-teams prowess (Smith’s a fine gunner) make this a slam-dunk selection.
58. Baltimore Ravens — Auburn WR Sammie Coates
The Ravens need a deep threat to replace Torrey Smith, and that’s all Coates does. For now.
59. Denver Broncos — Florida State OG Tre Jackson
A quality plug-and-play pick here with a fairly high floor and lower ceiling.
60. Dallas Cowboys — Miami (Fla.) RB Duke Johnson
The Darren McFadden signing was far from enough. Johnson gives them more juice.
61. Indianapolis Colts — Miami (Ohio) CB Quentin Rollins
Grigson loves finding players with unique backgrounds; former point guard Rollins can develop over time.
62. Green Bay Packers — Miami (Fla.) Denzel Perryman
Concerning that he came off field in passing situations, but he's a possible rookie starter inside.
63. Seattle Seahawks — Oregon C Hroniss Grasu
GM John Schneider was on hand at Oregon’s pro day to witness Max Unger’s potential replacement.
64. New England Patriots — Ohio State DT Michael Bennett
Great value here, but Bennett has seen his buzz cool a bit since the national title because of a hamstring injury.
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Man talk about a nightmare scenario. An average corner prospect at best and a specialty back.