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- Apr 7, 2013
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By Bob Sturm
5h ago
The Super Bowl has ended and now we have to find something else to do for about seven months (to camp) or so which for most of us means just a different approach to football with the draft and free agency. I will personally invest more time in the Mavericks and Stars as they both seem well positioned for some spring-time fun and my mediocre golf game, but you know that there is plenty of football activity as it pertains to the Cowboys. The offseason is this tiny sliver of land between the start of June and the middle of July.
Let’s get to some various riffing material and see what is what this week.
• We must start with the thriller of Super Bowl 57 and the crowning of a new NFL champion. The Kansas City Chiefs rode a very hot second half when they went touchdown-touchdown-touchdown-field goal in just four drives to flip a double-digit deficit into a victory, despite Patrick Mahomes re-aggravating his injured ankle right before halftime. He is the best player in the NFL and truly the MVP and he showed it in these playoffs. Mahomes is a special player who is poised to put the Chiefs into the rare air of true dynasties with another win in the next season or two. He will then have the entire second half of his career to chase history.
This, obviously around here, is always viewed through the lens of Big 12 football and his sometimes flawed play at Texas Tech. He was a true believer in the YOLO throw and risking it all to create the highlights, and the question was always whether he would be able to adjust his risks when talent levels around him match up with his. To explain a bit clearer: Would Mahomes be better if he was on a better team and did he struggle at Tech because the Red Raiders were normally at a talent deficit in many of his big matchups against the heavyweights? I guess we have our answer.
https://theathletic.com/4173278/2023/02/10/dallas-cowboys-free-agents-tony-pollard-dalton-schultz/
The Chiefs took away Tyreek Hill and he played a different version of himself this year, but it was a version that still stamped him as the best quarterback in the game. Also, his AAV of $45 million on a cap of $208 million can finally end the nonsense that a QB cannot have more than 12 percent of the cap to win a Super Bowl. He is at 22 percent with his AAV and 17 percent if you go with the 2022 cap hit. Of course, it has never been a cap thing, it has been an ability thing that determines these, so I would be comfortable paying Mahomes whatever he needs in this current form.
• While I am on the topic of cap hits vs. AAV, I think it is important for people to calculate things on AAV because the portion of the guaranteed part of the deal, that is what matters. How you spread it out as a team is completely up to you, but you have to hit the total divided by the number of years. When people adjust for cap numbers by year, they fall into the shell games of individual teams and then move it around to their pleasure. For instance, Dak Prescott jumps to $49 million next year and $52 million the year after (2024). This will be on social media because that is staggering but know the Cowboys smeared these numbers around for their own bidding and to match the rising cap with their overall team-building structure. They could easily have kept it at $40 million for four years, but they wanted to do a bunch of different accounting because it is their choice. Just know that in league circles, they calculate by AAV because that is what the player agreed to for terms. If he gets his money, they can pay it out however in most cases. It is like if you have $1,000 rent each month. Your landlord will be fine with you paying all $3,000 in the first month and then $500 per month in the next four months, but you know — and your landlord knows — that you aren’t actually getting your rent for $500. You just paid it as you wished and had an agreement. Same thing here. So, yes, Mahomes’ AAV was $45 million in 2022 and he still won the Super Bowl.
• Speaking of the draft evaluation and cap hits of QBs, that brings us to young Jalen Hurts. There is no question he played one of the best games of his career in the Super Bowl. He was superb with 304 yards passing and a TD with another 70 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. He was fantastic and continues to take large strides every year. I think that is a real credit to him and everyone that meets him knows he is one of those wonderful guys everyone wants to fight for. My draft evaluation of him was probably a bit harsh, but you can see that I was suggesting scheme will be very important for him. I cannot give enough credit to the Eagles and their coaching staff of Nick Sirianni, offensive coordinator Shane Steichen and QB coach Brian Johnson, who went to work in 2021 to design something that leans into what he does well and avoids what he doesn’t do well.
The interesting element of that is that he has really improved what he doesn’t do well. I think his work on third downs has been the biggest stride and his composure remains elite. Then the QB run game and the sneak game is a real math changer. He did everything he could do and his pass to Quez Watkins midway through the third quarter should have probably put the Eagles up, 31-21. Instead, the catch was not made and he came right back to convert to Dallas Goedert on a perfect throw on third-and-14 that led to a field goal to go to 27-21. He also led a TD drive and two-point conversion to tie it at 35-35, but the Chiefs did not allow the ball to get back to him. Hurts has demonstrated tremendous growth in his game and has already surpassed his ceiling in my mind.
Now, if he gets to $45-$50 million and his supporting cast drops, will it all look the same? Time will tell. But, again, not to compare him to Prescott, but Prescott looked differently from 2016 to 2018, partly because his expectations were exceeded. But, in 2020, he had new expectations of a top-paid QB and that new perception is what gave people a taste of dissatisfaction because he can never be Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers. This is the constant issue with so many like Kyler Murray, Prescott or even Kirk Cousins. Very good QBs, but never a superstar. Can you get a contract where you feel good about what you are asking him to do? This is now Philadelphia’s turn to sort out. But, make no mistake, he has elevated his game substantially.
• Are the Eagles built to last? Yes and no. On one hand, they have plenty of young prospects we all love and some of them, like Nakobe Dean, have hardly played. Now, they get the 10th and 30th picks of Round 1 in April’s draft. On the other hand, they do have a fair number of key players of a certain age. The Eagles have 11 starters who are unrestricted free agents and eight are on their defense. Here is their current roster sheet in how they were built — players listed in red are entering unrestricted free agency.
• The Eagles are in a good position and have been winning games at a very high level for two years. They only have a few “huge” contracts in Darius Slay, Lane Johnson and now the A.J. Brown deal kicks in for 2023-2026 with an AAV of $25 million. Of course, the Hurts deal will be one of their first orders of business and then they can get to work on how many spots need replacing. Johnson is almost 33, Jason Kelce is 35, Brandon Graham is 35, and Fletcher Cox is a high-mileage 32. But, they have already drafted replacements for several of them, so they appear to be a model franchise at the moment. Howie Roseman has been vindicated!
https://theathletic.com/4170858/2023/02/10/dallas-cowboys-nfl-draft-tight-ends/
• My last topic will be the one true Dallas Cowboys item. It is the discussion about this year’s draft philosophy and notably the top pick at No. 26. This is what I am focusing on in the draft digests with the TE edition already out and now I look at receivers. I am planning on my first several to be adding a real playmaker to this offense in Round 1 and although I reserve the right to change my mind, I think this is the best plan to help this team. Yes, Jalen Tolbert still has a great chance to be something and Michael Gallup should bounce back, but I need more juice on this offense. What are we looking for? A big WR for the outside? A shifty small receiver to allow CeeDee Lamb to go back outside? A dynamic tight end? Or a juice-filled RB who can really cause issues? What do you all think? Playmaker is on my shopping list, but the specifics of that must be well thought out. I encourage your thoughts below as you can riff right back at me.
This week, I will dive back into the draft prospects and also release the Super Bowl franchise rankings — you can find last year’s edition here.
