The Coronavirus Thread...

[mcnuttz]

I feel more sorry for the homeless citizens of this country.

I feel sorry for the elderly...from the ones who have no one to help them to the ones who aren't aware of modern day conveniences like home delivery.

I had to go to Wal-Mart yesterday and felt terrible walking around with my N95 mask and seeing old folks walking around with no protection at all.

 

[Cotton]

Well after we see Sweeden we may have an idea. It's going to be sad if there was no real difference.

 

[Cotton]

 

[Cowboysrock55]

I'm not toally convinced that the lockdowns have made a significant impact but we will see. I think the panic and policies have helped spread the disease in other ways. Sort of negating the positive impact of the lockdowns.

 

[Genghis Khan]

We have a much higher population and are much more densely populated compared to Sweden. Not sure that's an apples to apples comparison.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

We have a much higher population and are much more densely populated compared to Sweden. Not sure that's an apples to apples comparison.

I think you have to look at all numbers as per capita. But as far as density there isn't much you can do to account for that. But I will say that people congregating in large numbers at grocery stores and unemployment offices isn't helping anything.

I'm sure when this is all done we will hear about many lives being saved by the quarantine. But I wonder how much of that is just propaganda and how much is actual truth. We may never know.

 

[jsmith6919]

Additionally, Gov. Abbott said plans and strategies to safely reopen Texas businesses will be laid out later this week.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

I think you have to look at all numbers as per capita. But as far as density there isn't much you can do to account for that. But I will say that people congregating in large numbers at grocery stores and unemployment offices isn't helping anything.

I'm sure when this is all done we will hear about many lives being saved by the quarantine. But I wonder how much of that is just propaganda and how much is actual truth. We may never know.

My guess is they're going to show worse death numbers in the next month or so, which the media and experts will jump all over... but they may avoid a second wave, so in the end their numbers may be very similar. They may just be getting it over with faster.

Of course they'd look bad if we come up with some kind of effective treatment. In that case our delaying it might save lives. But I don't know if that's going to happen in significant numbers.

 

[Sheik]

Is it appropriate or fair for media to be asking the question “could any lives have been saved?”?

It seems like such a bullshit premise. I’m pretty sure you could ask that question every major disaster or health scare in the history of mankind, and the answer to most any circumstance would probably be yes in hindsight.

Why don’t they just come out and ask how many deaths and how much blood is on Trump’s hands?

 

[Sheik]

It's probably more accurate to compare American city-to-city with varying densities - NYC vs Los Angeles vs Houston

I mean, is "United States" bad? Or is it just "New York City" that's bad? "USA sans NYC" would be interesting.

What blows my mind is Italy. They have just about as many deaths and recoveries as the USA, but like 400k less confirmed cases.

People are going to point to age, but unless 99.9% of the deaths in the USA are of the same age group as Italy, something doesn’t add up, unless I’m missing something.

 

[yimyammer]

Those too. I saw one yesterday and wanted to give them money, but didn’t wanna chance it.

you could have played 52 dollar pick up with him and got a little bang for your buck

 

[yimyammer]

Edward Peter Stringham
– April 6, 2020

Who is Knut M. Wittkowski? He is among the many, even many hundreds, of epidemiologists and other medical research professionals whose expertise was not consulted in the frenzied weeks in which the American political class at all levels chose panic and shutdown over rationality and rights.
Consider his bio:

Dr. Wittkowski received his PhD in computer science from the University of Stuttgart and his ScD (Habilitation) in Medical Biometry from the Eberhard-Karls-University Tuüingen, both Germany. He worked for 15 years with Klaus Dietz, a leading epidemiologist who coined the term “reproduction number”, on the Epidemiology of HIV before heading for 20 years the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design at The Rockefeller University, New York. Dr. Wittkowski is currently the CEO of ASDERA LLC, a company discovering novel treatments for complex diseases from data of genome-wide association studies.

His work has been widely cited in the technical/medical literature. So try to understand his frustration with everything going on around him. A lifetime of work toward understanding diseases and their spread, and he has to watch all this unfold in the most brutal way that contradicts everything he knows and has tried to teach.
At the last moments of this interview below (full transcript) he says the following:

With all respiratory diseases, the only thing that stops the disease is herd immunity. About 80% of the people need to have had contact with the virus, and the majority of them won’t even have recognized that they were infected, or they had very, very mild symptoms, especially if they are children. So, it’s very important to keep the schools open and kids mingling to spread the virus to get herd immunity as fast as possible, and then the elderly people, who should be separated, and the nursing homes should be closed during that time, can come back and meet their children and grandchildren after about 4 weeks when the virus has been exterminated….

We are experiencing all sorts of counterproductive consequences of not well-thought-through policy….

Well, we will see maybe a total of fewer cases—that is possible. However, we will see more cases among the elderly, because we have prevented the school children from creating herd immunity. And so, in the end, we will see more death because the school children don’t die, it’s the elderly people who die, we will see more death because of this social distancing….

If we had herd immunity now, there couldn’t be a second wave in autumn. Herd immunity lasts for a couple of years, typically, and that’s why the last SARS epidemic we had in 2003, it lasted 15 years for enough people to become susceptible again so that a new epidemic could spread of a related virus. Because typically, there is something that requires cross-immunity, so if you were exposed to one of the SARS viruses, you are less likely to fall ill with another SARS virus. So, if we had herd immunity, we wouldn’t have a second wave. However, if we are preventing herd immunity from developing, it is almost guaranteed that we have a second wave as soon as either we stop the social distancing or the climate changes with winter coming or something like that….

[Extreme reactions] cost the US taxpayer $2 trillion, in addition to everything else that it costs, but it also has severe consequences for our social life, and depression is definitely something that we will be researching. I can say for myself, walking through New York City right now is depressing….

We should be resisting, and we should, at least, hold our politicians responsible. We should have a discussion with our politicians. One thing we definitely need to do, and that would be safe and effective, is opening schools. Let the children spread the virus among themselves, which is a necessity to get herd immunity. That was probably one of the most destructive actions the government has done. We should focus on the elderly and separating them from the population where the virus is circulating. We should not prevent the virus from circulating among school children, which is the fastest way to create herd immunity….

And the final question and answer: “So, is there anything else you want to say about this that—what’s been aggravating you the most? Or what would you like people to know?”

I think people in the United States and maybe other countries as well are more docile than they should be. People should talk with their politicians, question them, ask them to explain, because if people don’t stand up to their rights, their rights will be forgotten. I’m Knut Wittkowski. I was at the Rockefeller University, I have been an epidemiologist for 35 years, and I have been modeling epidemics for 35 years. It’s a pleasure to have the ability to help people to understand, but it’s a struggle to get heard.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

Edward Peter Stringham
– April 6, 2020

Who is Knut M. Wittkowski? He is among the many, even many hundreds, of epidemiologists and other medical research professionals whose expertise was not consulted in the frenzied weeks in which the American political class at all levels chose panic and shutdown over rationality and rights.
Consider his bio:

His work has been widely cited in the technical/medical literature. So try to understand his frustration with everything going on around him. A lifetime of work toward understanding diseases and their spread, and he has to watch all this unfold in the most brutal way that contradicts everything he knows and has tried to teach.
At the last moments of this interview below (full transcript) he says the following:






And the final question and answer: “So, is there anything else you want to say about this that—what’s been aggravating you the most? Or what would you like people to know?”

Honestly I've had some similar thoughts myself.

 

[yimyammer]

Honestly I've had some similar thoughts myself.

What's scary to me is everything has become so shrill, the mere suggestion of contemplating what this guy suggests gets dismissed out of hand by far too many if not overwhelmingly shouted down. I don't know what the best course of action is but I'm not afraid to consider all options

 

[Cowboysrock55]

What's scary to me is everything has become so shrill, the mere suggestion of contemplating what this guy suggests gets dismissed out of hand by far too many if not overwhelmingly shouted down. I don't know what the best course of action is but I'm not afraid to consider all options

Yeah I mean we have now gone down this tunnel of quarantine so I think our best hope at this point is that a vaccine is ready to go by November/December.

 

[Sheik]

I bet corona is what killed the dinosaurs.

 

[Angrymesscan]

We have a much higher population and are much more densely populated compared to Sweden. Not sure that's an apples to apples comparison.

And no One compares to Sweden when it comes to social responsibility, you tell Swedes to distance and take caution and they do it, no guys licking toilets or coughing on produce...

 

[Angrymesscan]

The numbers that jump out at me from the USA is basically the same number of “recovered” as deaths...
Most countries have a larger base of recovered than dead, Germany is like 20 recovered for every death.
Probably has to do with the moment of the crisis, but going from those numbers you’d have a 50/50 chance in the USA if you get coronavirus.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Haha, Fauci just got up and said the times he and Birx went and made a formal recommendation to Trump he did it every time,. and there was no pushback from Trump.

Then someone asked him if he was being forced to do this or was it voluntary, and he got a little exasperated and said everything he says is voluntary, so don't even go there.

He's smiling, but I think even he is getting sick of the "gotcha" media.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

On another note, Trump is near melting down today about the media coverage. I think these long press conferences every day have outlived their usefulness because he seems like he's wearing down. Too bad for him he can't be more like Parcells and put these guys in their place with humor and wit instead of getting so mad.