Colts vs. Cowboys preview
December, 19, 2014
By Todd Archer and Mike Wells | ESPNDallas.com
The Dallas Cowboys will host the Indianapolis Colts for the first time at AT&T Stadium on Sunday. While both teams are 10-4, their postseason plans are completely different.
The Colts have already clinched a playoff spot by winning the AFC South. The Cowboys lead the NFC East, but any slip-up in the final two games could not only cost them the division but a playoff spot altogether.
ESPN Colts reporter Mike Wells and Cowboys reporter Todd Archer offer up this week's preview:
Todd Archer: This is the first time the Cowboys will see Andrew Luck in person. His numbers are impressive, obviously, but it seems a little disconcerting to see him with 14 interceptions, up there with Jay Cutler, Blake Bortles and Andy Dalton. Is there any explanation for the high number of picks, besides the fact that they throw it a lot?
Mike Wells: I'll add on to Luck's turnover problems. He's also lost six fumbles, putting him second in the league in that category, behind only the now-benched Cutler. One of Luck's strongest attributes -- his competitiveness -- is also one of his biggest downfalls. He doesn't believe in giving up on a play. Rather than take a sack or throw the ball away, he believes he can extend a play with his legs or fit a tight throw in. Crazy part is, Luck should have more than 14 interceptions this season. There have been several throws on which the defensive player just dropped the pass. Luck knows he can't continue to make the "bonehead" -- as he calls them -- mistakes.
DeMarco Murray's status for Sunday appears to be uncertain. Let's assume he doesn't play. How much would Dallas' offensive scheme change without him in the lineup?
Archer: I don't think it would change that much. The Cowboys' identity has been the running game and the offensive line. I do believe they have faith in backups Joseph Randle and Lance Dunbar. To me, Randle would get the bulk of the carries if Murray can't go. Even if Murray does play, I would think the Cowboys would monitor his snaps anyway, considering he had surgery on Monday. The Cowboys just can't abandon the run. The run has made Tony Romo a better quarterback. He has been able to take advantage of coverages teams play because the defense has to commit to stopping the run. Romo has thrown more than 30 passes in a game this season just three times. It would surprise me if he is over that number this week if the game is not out of whack with the Colts leading big.
I mentioned how the Colts throw it a ton, but how has the running game changed with Daniel Herron becoming more of a fixture than Trent Richardson?
Wells: The Colts don't have a running game. If they rush for more than 100 yards as a team, Luck usually has contributed a significant portion of those yards. Things drastically changed for the Colts once Ahmad Bradshaw was lost for the season with a fractured fibula on Nov. 16. Now, they lack consistency in the backfield. Herron is a better runner than Richardson -- he's outrushed Richardson in three of the four games he's played -- but Richardson is a better pass-blocker, and that's what the Colts need more because the offensive line continues to be inconsistent. If the Colts are going to make a run in the playoffs, they'll have to do it with Luck's arm.
Sticking with the running game, how much credit for Murray's success goes to the offensive line? The O-line is the group on most teams that rarely gets praised but is quick to get criticized when they can't open holes or protect the quarterback.
Archer: I think a lot of the credit goes to the line and line coaches Bill Callahan and Frank Pollack. It’s helped by the fact that they have three first-rounders among the group in Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick and Zack Martin, but Ronald Leary and Doug Free have also played well. They have a good blend of power and smarts. They help each other out. They're smart. They have had really just one bad game as a group. But this week will be a test because of injuries. Free is in question because of an ankle injury. If he can't play, then Jermey Parnell would start. He did OK when Free missed three games earlier in the season. Martin is also dealing with an ankle sprain, but he was able to gut it out to finish the Philadelphia game. I talked earlier about the Cowboys' willingness to run the ball this year. Well, now they have to step up even more if Murray can’t play (or is limited).
The Colts are 10-4 and have clinched a playoff spot. They have a great quarterback, top receiver and a decent enough passing game, but I'm skeptical about just how good they are in part because they play in a terrible division. So, I guess, how good are these Colts? Can they beat New England or Denver in the AFC and get to the Super Bowl?
Wells: Don't worry about it. I'm just as skeptical of the Colts. They’re 11-0 in the AFC South the past two seasons, with another win expected at Tennessee to close out the season. But everybody knows the AFC South is possibly the worst division in the league. The Colts are currently 2-3 against teams that would be in the playoffs if they started today. Their three losses were to Denver, New England and Pittsburgh. The Patriots ran for more than 200 yards against them, and the Steelers had more than 600 yards of total offense. The Colts have had this game against the Cowboys circled on the calendar since the Patriots embarrassed them last month. Linebacker D'Qwell Jackson said Dallas is the most balanced offensive team they'll face this season. The Colts need this victory, from a mental standpoint, to prove they can beat a team that is capable of putting up a lot of points.
I recall talking to you earlier this season, and it didn't seem like you were a firm believer in the Cowboys. Have you changed your thought, and, if so, do you believe they're capable of making a run in the NFC?
Archer: I guess it depends on how you want to define "making a run." They haven't qualified for the playoffs yet, and a loss Sunday would be a huge blow to those chances. But I'll go with the premise that they make it for this answer. I think they can make a run because of their style of play. Plus, they’re 7-0 on the road this season. It might be better to be the wild card, but the odds of making it as a wild card are steep because it would require Seattle or Detroit to lose in the final two weeks. I have been skeptical this season. I don't know how anybody could have expected this from the Cowboys at the beginning of the season. Heck, Jerry Jones even said it would be an uphill battle. The coaches and players deserve a ton of credit for getting to this position. Now that they are this close, they can't blow it. They have to make the playoffs. I look around at the rest of the NFC and there is a "why not the Cowboys?" feeling. They already beat the Seahawks in Seattle. The Packers just lost to Buffalo. I don't see a dominant team in the conference, so, yeah, they could make a run. But first, they have to get in the playoffs.
