Hamas attacks Israel

Bipo

Bipo

This is damn peculiar....
Joined
Mar 17, 2020
Messages
10,360
Cowboysrock55 said:
Realistically Iran can't do anything, we could blow their ships out of there in an hour or less.
Click to expand...
Per Grok:

Iran could attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz through a combination of tactics that exploit the Strait's geography and Iran's asymmetric military capabilities, even in the face of U.S. naval superiority. Here's how they might try, and why sinking their ships alone might not fully neutralize the threat:
  1. Mines and Naval Mines: Iran has a significant stockpile of naval mines, including modern ones like the Chinese-designed EM-52. They could deploy thousands of these across the Strait's narrow 33-60 km width, particularly in its 3-km-wide shipping channels. Mines are hard to detect and clear, and even a single mine strike could disrupt global shipping by raising insurance costs and spooking markets. The U.S. Navy’s minesweeping capabilities are limited, and clearing the Strait could take weeks or months, especially under hostile conditions.
  2. Anti-Ship Missiles and Drones: Iran possesses a range of anti-ship missiles (e.g., Noor, Qader) and kamikaze drones, which can be launched from coastal batteries, small boats, or mobile launchers. These could target both commercial vessels and U.S. warships. The Strait’s confined waters limit maneuverability, making ships vulnerable to swarm attacks from fast attack craft or drones, which are hard to counter in large numbers.
  3. Submarines and Midget Subs: Iran’s fleet of Kilo-class submarines and smaller Ghadir-class midget subs could operate in the Strait’s shallow waters, laying mines or launching torpedoes. These are difficult to detect in the noisy, cluttered environment of the Strait, posing a persistent threat even if surface ships are sunk.
  4. Asymmetric Tactics and Swarming: Iran’s IRGC Navy relies on small, fast boats armed with missiles, rockets, or explosives. These could swarm larger U.S. ships, overwhelming defenses through sheer numbers. Even if many are sunk, some could get through, causing damage or sowing chaos.
  5. Land-Based Threats: Iran could use coastal artillery, ballistic missiles, or special forces to attack ships, ports, or oil facilities on the Strait’s southern shore (e.g., UAE, Oman). This would amplify the disruption beyond the waterway itself.
  6. Psychological and Economic Impact: Iran doesn’t need to fully block the Strait to cause havoc. Threatening the Strait, sinking a single tanker, or damaging a U.S. ship could spike oil prices and deter commercial shipping. In 2019, attacks on tankers (attributed to Iran) caused insurance rates to surge, showing the economic leverage of even limited actions.
Why U.S. Sinking Iran’s Ships Isn’t Enough
  • Dispersed Threats: Iran’s capabilities are not solely reliant on its navy. Land-based missiles, drones, and mines can be deployed from hidden or fortified positions, surviving naval strikes.
  • Mines Persist: Even if Iran’s surface fleet is destroyed, mines already laid could keep the Strait hazardous for weeks. The U.S. Navy’s 14 Avenger-class minesweepers are insufficient for rapid clearance in a contested environment.
  • Asymmetric Resilience: Iran’s decentralized, low-cost assets (e.g., small boats, drones) are harder to target than a conventional fleet. Sinking larger ships like Iran’s frigates wouldn’t eliminate these threats.
  • Escalation Risks: U.S. attacks on Iranian ships could trigger broader retaliation, such as missile strikes on U.S. bases or allies’ oil infrastructure, escalating the conflict and further disrupting global energy markets.
U.S. Countermeasures

The U.S. could sink Iran’s surface fleet relatively quickly using carrier strike groups, submarines, or air strikes from bases in the region (e.g., Al Udeid in Qatar). However, neutralizing mines, submarines, and land-based threats would require a prolonged campaign, including special operations, airstrikes, and minesweeping—potentially complicated by Iran’s air defenses and proxies (e.g., Houthis, Hezbollah).

Conclusion

Iran could block the Strait by leveraging mines, missiles, drones, and asymmetric tactics, exploiting the Strait’s narrow geography to create disruption even without a conventional naval victory. While the U.S. could sink Iran’s ships, this wouldn’t immediately clear the Strait or prevent economic fallout, as Iran’s layered threats are designed to persist and deter. Any conflict here risks rapid escalation, with global oil supply (20-30% of world trade) caught in the crossfire.
 
Cowboysrock55

Cowboysrock55

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Bill Shatner said:
Per Grok:

Iran could attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz through a combination of tactics that exploit the Strait's geography and Iran's asymmetric military capabilities, even in the face of U.S. naval superiority. Here's how they might try, and why sinking their ships alone might not fully neutralize the threat:
  1. Mines and Naval Mines: Iran has a significant stockpile of naval mines, including modern ones like the Chinese-designed EM-52. They could deploy thousands of these across the Strait's narrow 33-60 km width, particularly in its 3-km-wide shipping channels. Mines are hard to detect and clear, and even a single mine strike could disrupt global shipping by raising insurance costs and spooking markets. The U.S. Navy’s minesweeping capabilities are limited, and clearing the Strait could take weeks or months, especially under hostile conditions.
  2. Anti-Ship Missiles and Drones: Iran possesses a range of anti-ship missiles (e.g., Noor, Qader) and kamikaze drones, which can be launched from coastal batteries, small boats, or mobile launchers. These could target both commercial vessels and U.S. warships. The Strait’s confined waters limit maneuverability, making ships vulnerable to swarm attacks from fast attack craft or drones, which are hard to counter in large numbers.
  3. Submarines and Midget Subs: Iran’s fleet of Kilo-class submarines and smaller Ghadir-class midget subs could operate in the Strait’s shallow waters, laying mines or launching torpedoes. These are difficult to detect in the noisy, cluttered environment of the Strait, posing a persistent threat even if surface ships are sunk.
  4. Asymmetric Tactics and Swarming: Iran’s IRGC Navy relies on small, fast boats armed with missiles, rockets, or explosives. These could swarm larger U.S. ships, overwhelming defenses through sheer numbers. Even if many are sunk, some could get through, causing damage or sowing chaos.
  5. Land-Based Threats: Iran could use coastal artillery, ballistic missiles, or special forces to attack ships, ports, or oil facilities on the Strait’s southern shore (e.g., UAE, Oman). This would amplify the disruption beyond the waterway itself.
  6. Psychological and Economic Impact: Iran doesn’t need to fully block the Strait to cause havoc. Threatening the Strait, sinking a single tanker, or damaging a U.S. ship could spike oil prices and deter commercial shipping. In 2019, attacks on tankers (attributed to Iran) caused insurance rates to surge, showing the economic leverage of even limited actions.
Why U.S. Sinking Iran’s Ships Isn’t Enough
  • Dispersed Threats: Iran’s capabilities are not solely reliant on its navy. Land-based missiles, drones, and mines can be deployed from hidden or fortified positions, surviving naval strikes.
  • Mines Persist: Even if Iran’s surface fleet is destroyed, mines already laid could keep the Strait hazardous for weeks. The U.S. Navy’s 14 Avenger-class minesweepers are insufficient for rapid clearance in a contested environment.
  • Asymmetric Resilience: Iran’s decentralized, low-cost assets (e.g., small boats, drones) are harder to target than a conventional fleet. Sinking larger ships like Iran’s frigates wouldn’t eliminate these threats.
  • Escalation Risks: U.S. attacks on Iranian ships could trigger broader retaliation, such as missile strikes on U.S. bases or allies’ oil infrastructure, escalating the conflict and further disrupting global energy markets.
U.S. Countermeasures

The U.S. could sink Iran’s surface fleet relatively quickly using carrier strike groups, submarines, or air strikes from bases in the region (e.g., Al Udeid in Qatar). However, neutralizing mines, submarines, and land-based threats would require a prolonged campaign, including special operations, airstrikes, and minesweeping—potentially complicated by Iran’s air defenses and proxies (e.g., Houthis, Hezbollah).

Conclusion

Iran could block the Strait by leveraging mines, missiles, drones, and asymmetric tactics, exploiting the Strait’s narrow geography to create disruption even without a conventional naval victory. While the U.S. could sink Iran’s ships, this wouldn’t immediately clear the Strait or prevent economic fallout, as Iran’s layered threats are designed to persist and deter. Any conflict here risks rapid escalation, with global oil supply (20-30% of world trade) caught in the crossfire.
Click to expand...
GROK is retarded. They could certainly escalate things by doing this. But they would easily sign their own death warrants.
 
Chocolate Lab

Chocolate Lab

Kuato Lives
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28,948
Of course sinking their ships wouldn't clear the strait of the mines already laid. Thanks for that incredible insight, Grok.

The bigger picture is, Iran probably wouldn't mine it in the first place because that's where China and much of Europe gets most of their oil. Like Rubio said, doing this would hurt their economies much worse than ours.

But they're radical lunatics and the CCP doesn't care about its people, so they could think it's worth it to do it anyway.
 
Bipo

Bipo

This is damn peculiar....
Joined
Mar 17, 2020
Messages
10,360
Thinking we can easily deal with Iran is pretty fucking retarded considering our recent history in bullshit Mid East wars. We can't even get rid of the Houthis in Yemen for fuck's sake.
 
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