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By Bob Sturm Dec 13, 2021
Lost in the emotion of a fourth quarter that was much more stressful than it needed to be was the fact that some thought this team might not be able to get in and out of Washington with the win.
There is a lot of money to be made in Cowboys pessimism in December. But, on this day, Dallas drilled Washington so thoroughly that by halftime the score was 24-0 and it probably flattered Washington. If Mike McCarthy put a target on his team’s back by daring to effectively say he knew it was the better team, Dallas seemed to have very little difficulty proving it.
The defense put on moments of such utter dominance that you cringed at the next choke slam that Taylor Heinicke was forced to endure. Unleashing Randy Gregory, DeMarcus Lawrence and Neville Gallimore onto a front that already might have the defensive player of the year in Micah Parsons was just more than that Washington battered offensive line could dream to handle.
The sacks and the pressure led to turnovers. Takeaways were everywhere again. For the second week in a row, the defense carried a struggling offense for much of the day, but also for much of the day, it didn’t matter that the offense was fighting itself.
When one side of the ball has such little resistance, the day comes pretty easy. And yes, I will always tell you that 55 minutes of 27-8 football is much more important than the 60 seconds that almost gave it all back.
They got a road win against an agitated opponent that promised to show its teeth on Sunday. And then Dallas flicked its wrist and made the final two hours pretty much garbage time.
Why? Because this fully operational defense is going to scare teams. With that newfound athleticism and suddenness comes playmakers. And with playmakers come the takeaways and winning things come from those takeaways.
Parsons is on his own level, but those moments from his new and now-healthy friends who have barely shared a field with him make us wonder what might be possible in the postseason. They are clearly headed there and winning the NFC East after their quick dispatching of an overmatched rival Sunday.
While you are feeling bad about what wasn’t right about the team, perhaps I could try to convince you what is a far greater story.
I am often reminded how this organization and team have underachieved since 1995. If somehow, someone in my position had ever forgotten that simple truth — that the Dallas Cowboys used to exist to pursue world championships and have not really upheld that stated mission since most of their fans were much, much younger — then it is reminded everywhere you look.
Seriously, you cannot read about this organization for 10 minutes without a reminder. Living legends will be interviewed, old memories will be replayed, and back it comes. This once-proud franchise is now nearly the opposite of proud. The steely nerves of knowing the heroes would extract themselves from the mess have now turned to doubt from the loyalists at every turn. Just wait. “They will screw this up again” is repeated and muttered with a roll of the eyes.
They have lost the benefit of the doubt. I get it. I have witnessed nearly the entire stretch of famine. It has not had the happy days that used to be included with the dinner.
But, before we spend too much time wondering why a 19-point win quickly became a stressful finish, let’s focus on one piece of very positive news that shall not be lost at the top of my recap.
This team has continued getting the football in huge numbers. Dallas also — believe it or not — is taking reasonable care of the football at the same time. This is the sort of complementary winning football that takes you big places and more importantly, it has only been here in Dallas a few times over the past 20-plus years.
Let’s start with what mediocre football looks like. For the past few decades, Dallas has been pretty mediocre. For the 20 seasons before this year, we certainly do not need to recap the large accomplishments for long. The Cowboys have won a few wild-card games, zero divisional-round playoff games, and therefore played in zero NFC Championship games and Super Bowls. Zero.
During that time, the Cowboys have played the turnover game at a rate of minus-54 over 20 seasons. That may or may not sound bad, so let me contextualize what it means. From 2001-2020, they are 26th in turnover margin and the teams below them (Rams, Dolphins, Cardinals, Lions, Browns, Raiders) have combined for zero Lombardi trophies during that stretch, but have at least attended four of them. Right above them would be Houston and Washington, which we know that those are also teams that have won absolutely nothing since 2001. A little higher would be the Jets, Jaguars, Broncos and Bills. The bottom 13 teams — from 20th to 32nd in this list of turnover differential from 2001-2020 — have the Peyton Manning Super Bowl of 2015 as the one time on this entire list that teams that do not get the football far more than they give it have done anything worth remembering.
At the top of this statistic is New England, Green Bay, Seattle and Kansas City. New England’s turnover differential is twice as good as anyone else on this list (plus-213 vs. plus-107 for Green Bay), so it should probably not come as any sort of coincidence that they have won all the trophies. And yes, plus-213 over 20 years means they average a double-digit turnover advantage every year. Which is more than remarkable. To be fair, life in Green Bay, Seattle and Kansas City has included many January nights with exciting and historic football being played.
So, there are too many stats and too many studies that signify nothing. But, do not mistake the giveaway/takeaway turnover differential as that for even a moment.
This is the most important development that might even be under the radar locally. Dallas is absolutely destroying the turnover battle in 2021 — like so many McCarthy teams at his previous stop — and after Sunday it is at the single-season high-water mark for Dallas since the turn of the millennium.
Dallas, after another four-takeaway performance, sits at 27 takeaways in 13 games. Keep in mind that the most they have ever had in a full season during this stretch is 30 in 16 games, so that seems destined to fall as early as next week. The trouble with that stat being meaningful is that it requires the offense to do its part and to not give the ball right back to nullify the gains with a loss.
And, that is what is happening. Dallas has only 18 giveaways which is far from perfect, but also well below the normal 26.4 that the past two decades have done. Dallas has averaged giving the ball away about three more times than it takes it, which means that they are always playing uphill and at a statistical disadvantage.
Dallas has always had a giveaway problem. This certainly is shocking to a team that had Tony Romo as a starter for nearly a decade and then six seasons of Dak Prescott. Both quarterbacks take care of the ball pretty well, but the defense never getting the ball has been a huge deal.
Anyway, here we sit, after a game when the defense not only took the ball away but then scored with it, where we see Dallas sitting at plus-9 in this very important category. It should not be lost on anyone that your positive number often correlates with your win total. Nine wins and plus-9 is not scientifically reliable, but double-digit win seasons are definitely double-digit plus seasons.
Only four teams sit above Dallas and I bet if you look at the standings, you can hazard a guess. Colts (who are in a somewhat tenuous spot), Cardinals, Packers and Patriots are the top four and they are sitting pretty in the playoff push. Right next to them is Dallas.
It is because they understand the formula and now know what to do with it.
Dak Prescott and Cole Holcomb (Geoff Burke / USA Today)
The next step is getting the offense cooking again. The Cowboys have a QB who has lost his groove and while this is not terribly abnormal in this league, it also is not a ton of fun when you are in the middle of it.
Prescott is not in a good place and he knows it. Of course, when you combine it with the normal stress levels of the Cowboys public, it is a horrible confluence of the history and the belief that the critics are right. Maybe the Cowboys are a fraud again and maybe their QB is too. There is no way to avoid that feeling other than proving themselves on a top level, which is why these games are a zero-sum endeavor if you start convincing yourself that getting the win is less important than style points. If the win isn’t enough, but rather impressing the league with how you do it, then understand that a perfect day is discounted by “only beating Washington,” but the slightest bit of performance shortcomings is met with dissatisfaction that “here we go again” is ever-present.
The day might not have quickly turned to Prescott and Kellen Moore and why this offense is barely getting 300 yards in this situation and again struggling on third downs and in the red zone if Prescott had not thrown the late pick six to Cole Holcomb on a wide-open play-action rollout where Dalton Schultz is standing by himself with nobody within five yards in any direction. The play was schemed perfectly and Schultz would have been nearly to midfield before anyone even attempted to tackle him. Instead, Prescott tried to set himself and make a more perfect throw. In doing so, he allowed Holcomb to recover and to at least get to the path of the throw. Nevertheless, if the throw is lofted, he would still have no chance to touch it. Instead, Prescott never saw him and let a practice-field throw go and it nearly hit Holcomb in the face. He caught it — likely as surprised as anyone — and raced to the end zone.
Somehow, in a game that had been over since 1 p.m. CT, Washington had raced to within 27-20 with 4:13 to play and a game that was dead and gone was back in play.
This is the second week in a row when an uneven offensive performance was immaterial to the outcome of the game, yet because of a careless pass from QB1, the game was back in massive jeopardy because of just not seeing a key defender. In the NFL, that can cost you dearly. Even if it doesn’t, it can send fans and media freaking out about what might happen next time they play a premier opponent in a huge playoff spot.
It obviously comes with the contract and so does Prescott spending so much time hearing that more money means he must be a better version of himself, even though that is actually impossible and what gets guys into trouble. They pay you to be what you have been and if the development continues, all the better. But, no additional zeroes on a paycheck make the human more proficient at their occupation. It just means they sleep on a bigger pallet of cash.
He is fighting through it, but he isn’t alone. There is a group of six QBs who all have been dealing with various form slips in the previous five weeks. They all have injuries to teammates and strategic developments about how they are defended and what is happening. They range from veterans Ben Roethlisberger, Derek Carr and Ryan Tannehill to you stars Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. All six of these players are trying to push their teams into the playoffs but have also been charged with 10 or 11 turnover-worthy plays since Week 9. Prescott has 10 of them and this is as bad as he has looked in a long time. Patrick Mahomes was just there with this group. They all have giant contracts (Jackson is still needing his) and giant expectations. Roethlisberger is likely about to retire, but the other five are being counted on to carry their teams.
They have to get it fixed. There is no doubt about it. And if they don’t, their team’s demise will go on their QB1 and his full record. But I am not going to over-value five weeks versus five years. Prescott is a very good QB and the Cowboys will find their groove again as will the rest of that list on varying levels of competence.
But, those other teams don’t all have a combination of weapons on offense and an attacking defense like this one right now. And my general message about where this currently is and where the Cowboys are headed is based largely on Dallas starting to look like a team that can beat you in different ways. Some weeks the offense looks like the best in the league. Other weeks, it doesn’t, but here comes the defense rag-dolling its opponent to four takeaways.
As we say, you have to be able to win in different ways. And these past two weeks on the road have presented a way we had not imagined possible in Dan Quinn’s first season. I am not going to act like that development makes big things possible next month.
Because they are looking like a team nobody will want to play in the playoffs as we head to the holidays.
