Simpleton
DCC 4Life
- Joined
- Apr 8, 2013
- Messages
- 17,470
After looking at the majority of the prospects expected to go in the 15-25 range I've come to the conclusion that we should be looking very hard at trading, one way or the other. It seems like we're sitting at a spot where there could be a flattening of the talent, where a guy taken at 17 isn't a significantly better prospect than a guy at 24 or 28.
If we were to take Chaisson or Henderson or McKinney at 17, it'd be fine and we'd likely be getting a very solid starter, but I'd be just as happy moving down for a 3rd and taking Baun, Winfield, Delpit, Gross-Matos or Justin Jefferson, or perhaps even Chaisson or McKinney themselves if it's only a 5ish spot trade down.
On the flip side, the dream is obviously that either Kinlaw or Brown make it down to 17. One could argue that we need an upgrade at literally any defensive position but I think these are the two best defensive prospects most likely to get into our range, and clearly our current DT's are only 1-2 year stopgaps. I think there's maybe a 25% chance of one of them falling to 17, but I think there's at least a 75% chance one of them makes it down into the 10-15 range. So the question is, what would you be willing to give up to move up for one of them, and at what point would you seriously start considering it?
I don't think the Browns, Jets or Raiders at 10-12 are any threat to take a DT. They're all generally solid at the position and/or have made recent significant investments there while having massive holes at positions that could arguably be the BPA at their respective picks (WR/OT). As long as one of the top 4 OT's or one of the top 2 WR's are available I think each of those teams sits there and makes the pick.
So for me the 49ers at 13 and the Bucs at 14 are where I'd really start looking hard at it.
There are a variety of factors based on how things play out, such as if it's looking like one of the top 4 OT's will be there at 14 then I think Tampa will definitely take one of them and we can be patient and maybe look to move up with Denver. If Jeudy/Lamb are there at 13 then I think we can be patient and not worry about the 49ers taking one of them. If a miracle happens and both of them make it past Jacksonville at 9 we'll be in a really awesome position, and then we can decide what to do based on what happens between 10-13.
Ultimately I'd be willing to give up our 4th this year and our 3rd next year to move up for either one of them, although obviously you'd try to make it work for less. We're likely getting at least one 3rd comp pick next year and quite possibly two for Byron/Quinn, so we'd really just be giving up one of multiple 2021 3's plus a mid-4th this year for one of the last elite defensive prospects at a position of great need.
If we were to take Chaisson or Henderson or McKinney at 17, it'd be fine and we'd likely be getting a very solid starter, but I'd be just as happy moving down for a 3rd and taking Baun, Winfield, Delpit, Gross-Matos or Justin Jefferson, or perhaps even Chaisson or McKinney themselves if it's only a 5ish spot trade down.
On the flip side, the dream is obviously that either Kinlaw or Brown make it down to 17. One could argue that we need an upgrade at literally any defensive position but I think these are the two best defensive prospects most likely to get into our range, and clearly our current DT's are only 1-2 year stopgaps. I think there's maybe a 25% chance of one of them falling to 17, but I think there's at least a 75% chance one of them makes it down into the 10-15 range. So the question is, what would you be willing to give up to move up for one of them, and at what point would you seriously start considering it?
I don't think the Browns, Jets or Raiders at 10-12 are any threat to take a DT. They're all generally solid at the position and/or have made recent significant investments there while having massive holes at positions that could arguably be the BPA at their respective picks (WR/OT). As long as one of the top 4 OT's or one of the top 2 WR's are available I think each of those teams sits there and makes the pick.
So for me the 49ers at 13 and the Bucs at 14 are where I'd really start looking hard at it.
There are a variety of factors based on how things play out, such as if it's looking like one of the top 4 OT's will be there at 14 then I think Tampa will definitely take one of them and we can be patient and maybe look to move up with Denver. If Jeudy/Lamb are there at 13 then I think we can be patient and not worry about the 49ers taking one of them. If a miracle happens and both of them make it past Jacksonville at 9 we'll be in a really awesome position, and then we can decide what to do based on what happens between 10-13.
Ultimately I'd be willing to give up our 4th this year and our 3rd next year to move up for either one of them, although obviously you'd try to make it work for less. We're likely getting at least one 3rd comp pick next year and quite possibly two for Byron/Quinn, so we'd really just be giving up one of multiple 2021 3's plus a mid-4th this year for one of the last elite defensive prospects at a position of great need.
