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By Bob Sturm Oct 5, 2021
We expected a true test for this Cowboys’ offense Sunday. It would be an opportunity to see what a team that was top-ranked in more than a few categories might do to slow down this machine.
Since securing Dak Prescott’s contract and the healing of Prescott, Tyron Smith and Zack Martin in the offseason, the expectation level was high enough around here that Prescott being on the fringe of MVP chatter was now an expectation — not a ridiculous dream.
Well, Carolina certainly threw its best punches but as the game unfolded, so did the Panthers’ chances at winning. Dallas hit a lull in the second quarter with back-to-back punts to end the half from midfield (at least one that it probably should have gone for it), but then hit the gas pedal with three consecutive scoring drives in the third quarter from nice short fields and put the game away.
The Cowboys did it with incredible balance again and have proven that the biggest weakness of the offense might be difficult to fully identify. In fact, they are also doing it during this three-game winning streak without a top wide receiver and their starting right tackle. The ability to march on without preferred personnel is something we are not accustomed to around here.
But, to their credit, the outcomes have been more than positive for this offense under Kellen Moore. The Cowboys seem to be able to beat you in any way a defense sees fit — also something that we have not always seen around here.
Dallas was not perfect on Sunday at all. In fact, the third-down conversions were not nearly good enough. The Cowboys only hit 33 percent which was primarily because they were so poor on some of those third-and-short runs. Even worse was that their average yards to go on third down was only 3.3 — probably the best number they will get all season. It is almost impossible to have an average-to-go that low, but Dallas was so good on first and second down that it seldom left itself a third-and-long or even third-and-medium.
But, for whatever reason, the Cowboys did not convert well enough on that “money down” which often earmarks a team for defeat. Add that to the problems with the two-point conversions and you see less-than-ideal situational football for a team that probably should have put up another “40-burger” in this game.
That said, everything else is positive and therefore we might be nitpicking.
Let’s see what a top-five offense looks like through one month of the season when we review the 10 metrics we track here as the most meaningful to an offense’s success.
Thru Week 4 NFL Rankings (1-32)
The Cowboys are top five in most categories and even the numbers that are not as high are still above league average. All of them. Passing yards is probably the least important because we know Dallas can improve that if it wishes, but it is not wanting to throw for 400 in a game unless it’s necessary. That places more pressure on your quarterback, your offensive line and risks injury for all involved. If that is your low number, no problem. Other than that, it is across the board positive reviews. Now Dallas must simply continue to maintain.
Here are the offensive groupings with 11 and 12 personnel again consisting of nearly 80 percent of all snaps. Then the special groupings have given us a good amount of 6OL which Connor McGovern will assist wonderfully from an attached position or as a fullback. He appears more than enthusiastic to contribute with a smash.
Film study
3Q — 10:56 — first-and-10 — 35-yard line
Shotgun and 11 personnel on this first-and-10 with Tony Pollard in for Ezekiel Elliott at running back. Trips left to start and then Amari Cooper motions to the right. This helps identify the coverage, but first-and-10 tells us it will almost certainly be zone coverage anyway. Zone allows all the defenders to have their eyes in the backfield and able to defend both the run and the pass optimally because, in a situation like this, Dallas can do either with great comfort because of down and distance along with field position.
At release, CeeDee Lamb cuts underneath Cedrick Wilson and the Panthers switch as Dalton Schultz runs the old familiar Cowboys “Y Option” which allows him to curl to where the zone is not. In this case, Schultz quickly makes himself available 10 yards downfield in front of Prescott. This is the zone beater that is usually baked into every Cowboys’ concept. If nothing on the outside materializes, you will always have a pitch and catch with the tight end right in front of you and over where the center started the play. Meanwhile, Cooper is running an out and up. The out sells a throw to the sticks, but more importantly, takes the “single-high” safety in the middle of the field too far out of this route. Down the sideline will be too wide for him and he is also staying home to monitor Schultz. Cooper will have the deep corner to himself if he can get by C.J. Henderson.
This frame shows both of those options. Schultz is wide open at the sticks if the Cowboys want to continue to march the ball or Cooper is deep for a “shot play” and you can see where Prescott wants to go. Cooper being even with Henderson is all Prescott needs to see and to try to put the ball perfectly at the pylon.
We haven’t really shown you how the Panthers blitz is doing, but here it is from the end zone. It is a five-man pressure that is made to look like a six-man. But the Panthers take their best pass rusher in Brian Burns (53) and drop him into coverage with Schultz. This brings both linebackers Shaq Thompson (7) and Jermaine Carter (4) to challenge the middle with Haason Reddick (43). Meanwhile, defensive tackles Derrick Brown (95) and Bravvion Roy (93) go outside and occupy the offensive tackles. This is where we should credit Pollard and Martin for great work, but Carolina still gets Reddick on a path to Prescott, who must unleash his pass knowing it might hurt a bit.
The throw is right on the money and Cooper does a fantastic job of winning the body position game with last year’s No. 9 pick overall and secures a touchdown that caps off a gorgeous play. This gave the Cowboys a lead they would never give back.
Here is the play with Next Gen player tracking:
That one was excellent, but this one is really what film study and game planning is all about. This is the third touchdown of the quarter and the fifth touchdown of the day.
3Q — 2:23 — second-and-10 — 23-yard line
Second-and-10, shotgun with 11 personnel. This time, the three receivers are to the right with Lamb alone on the left. The Cowboys are expecting another blitz and it is a trap play. Basically, the Cowboys want the world to see Prescott looking at Schultz as the hot route to the flat. The moment anyone eats the cheese, they will spring the trap downfield. But this is why we love football. Carolina is trying to trap Dallas and Dallas is trying to act trapped … only to trap them back.
The entire play comes down to two things: That Prescott sells his shoulder fake to Schultz and that Pollard picks up the second blitzing linebacker. Look at how Prescott exaggerates his turn. There is simply no chance he is throwing anywhere but to his tight end in the flat on a hot route because he is a rookie quarterback, right? Both the slot corner A.J. Bouye (24) and safety Sam Franklin (42) fall right into this trap.
You can see that Bouye and Franklin are both standing next to Schultz. The problem is that Wilson is catching the ball at the 10-yard line. Never has anyone been so wide open and he is because they are sure he is a blocker for Schultz. He wasn’t. The Cowboys tricked the trick.
One spin on the deep safety who tried to save the day and Wilson walks into the end zone with amazing practice-speed ease. That is your dagger.
Check the Next Gen below:
The takeaway is that the Cowboys are winning much of these battles on Sundays because of that offensive competence level that they enjoy right now with a quarterback who has graduated with honors, an offensive coordinator and an aggressive head coach. They are teaming together to take apart defenses in launching the game planning with counters to every shot they may receive and on game day Kellen Moore calling up the plays in a well-conceived sequence.
Here is how they handled the blitz Sunday. No sacks, no mistakes and three touchdowns against blitzes.
All four of the touchdowns went to the same side of the field this week.
Let me wrap it up by recognizing three players who don’t get talked about enough in this series as we constantly are pointing out Prescott and his receivers as well as the big bullies who get the big checks.
First, Elliott looked great Sunday. He had burst and conviction.
When he runs with hesitancy, he looks like he has lost a step. When he plants and goes, he still looks like a real weapon. He was excellent in this one and there is nothing like a 47-yarder to offer a lot of optimism about explosion.
Then, we must recognize the fine work of Terence Steele. He has been excellent and has had a very nice three games. Not perfect, but his run blocking is his best stuff and they have not felt massive pass pressure from his side at this point. The team is doing a nice job of getting him help and Prescott understands his limitations against someone like Joey Bosa. That said, Steele is much improved and provides a real solution at swing tackle when La’el Collins returns.
Finally, the work of Schultz.
Schultz has always been thought of as the second tight end to Blake Jarwin, but that is clearly not true. Schultz plays between 10-15 more snaps a game than Jarwin and the Cowboys use him as a full-service tight end whereas Jarwin is more of a flexed-out tight end they like to use as a wide receiver. Usually, in 11 personnel, Schultz is the lone tight end. However, when they play 12 personnel (2 tight ends), the Cowboys will play them both with Jarwin generally on the outside and Schultz on the inside.
Dallas trusts Schultz to run block more, pass protect better and as a receiver, he is not as dynamic, but they don’t use tight ends for dynamic purposes often. It would seem that Schultz is a player the Cowboys will be looking to extend because they use him so much and his rookie contract will expire at the end of this season. I don’t think they want him to get away if they can find a strong price. But, with his productivity and quality, he will hit unrestricted free agency at just 25 years old. The price might not be as tiny as you think.
Something to think about.