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By Sheil Kapadia Dec 10, 2019
Every week when the Cowboys play, Eagles fans convince themselves they can win the division. Every week when the Eagles play, Cowboys fans convince themselves they can win the division.
And so, here we are, with two 6-7 teams battling it out for the NFC East going into Week 15.
The Eagles’ remaining opponents (at Washington, Dallas, at Giants) have a combined record of 11-28 (.282 winning percentage). The Cowboys’ remaining opponents (Rams, at Eagles, Washington) have a combined record of 17-22 (.436).
Since one of these two teams has to make the playoffs, here’s a breakdown of the various scenarios that could play out over the next three weeks.
Note: The NFC East winner is locked into the No. 4 seed, which would mean a home playoff game against the first wild-card team (the No. 5 seed). Right now, that would be the Seahawks. It could also end up being the 49ers, Vikings or Packers. And if you want to include the highly unlikely candidates, throw in the Rams and Bears.
Scenario 1: Either the Cowboys or Eagles win out
Obviously, both cannot win out since they play each other in Week 16. But going into Week 15, both Doug Pederson and Jason Garrett can tell their teams that they “control their own destinies.” If one of the two teams wins out, it will go into the playoffs as the NFC East champion at 9-7.
Scenario 2: One of the teams picks up a game on the other
Another obvious one. But if one team goes 2-1 and the other goes 1-2, or if one team goes 1-2 and the other goes 0-3, that will determine the division. In the latter scenario, a team would win the division at 7-9.
Scenario 3: They finish with the same record, but the Cowboys win the Week 16 matchup
In this scenario, the Cowboys are NFC East champs. The first tiebreak is head-to-head record. The Cowboys beat the Eagles 37-10 in Week 7. If they beat them again, they’d win all tiebreak scenarios. Why is this important? The Cowboys are not dead if they lose to the Rams on Sunday. Even if they drop that game, they still control their fate and can win the division with victories in the final two games.
If both teams go 2-1 down the stretch and the Cowboys win the Week 16 game, Dallas is in. If both teams go 1-2 down the stretch, and the Cowboys win the Week 16 game, they’re also in.
The one scenario where the Eagles could lose in Week 16 but still win the division is if they win their other two games and the Cowboys lose their other two games. That would give the Eagles an edge at 8-8 over 7-9 Dallas.
Scenario 4: They finish with the same record, the Eagles win the Week 16 matchup, lose to Washington in Week 15 and beat the Giants in Week 17
This is where it gets fun. In this scenario, both teams finish at 8-8. The head-to-head tiebreak would be a wash since the teams would split. The next tiebreak would be division record.
The Eagles’ division record would be 4-2, assuming a loss to Washington. The Cowboys’ division record would be 5-1.
So if the Cowboys were to beat the Rams this weekend and the Eagles lose to Washington, the Eagles would be in big trouble. Even if they beat the Cowboys in Week 16, Pederson’s team would need to beat the Giants in Week 17 and have Dallas lose to Washington to get in.
Scenario 5: They finish with the same record, the Eagles win the Week 16 matchup, beat Washington in Week 15 and lose to the Giants in Week 17
This is pretty much the same scenario as the previous one. Let’s say the Eagles win the next two and go into Week 17 at 8-7, and the Cowboys beat the Rams and go into Week 17 at 7-8. If the Eagles lose their finale to the Giants and the Cowboys beat Washington to put both teams at 8-8, Dallas’ division record (5-1) would be better. The Cowboys would make the postseason.
Scenario 6: They finish with the same record, the Eagles win the Week 16 matchup but lose to Washington in Week 15 and the Giants in Week 17
In this scenario, both teams finish at 7-9. The Eagles would be 3-3 in the division, while the Cowboys would be either 4-2 or 5-1. Dallas would win the division.
What you may have noticed above is that the Cowboys win every tiebreak scenario. (Don’t ask me about ties.) If the two teams finish with the same record, the Cowboys are in. The Eagles have to finish with a better record than Dallas, one way or another, to take the division.
According to Football Outsiders, the Cowboys have a 66.4 percent chance of getting in, while the Eagles are at 33.6 percent.
Every week when the Cowboys play, Eagles fans convince themselves they can win the division. Every week when the Eagles play, Cowboys fans convince themselves they can win the division.
And so, here we are, with two 6-7 teams battling it out for the NFC East going into Week 15.
The Eagles’ remaining opponents (at Washington, Dallas, at Giants) have a combined record of 11-28 (.282 winning percentage). The Cowboys’ remaining opponents (Rams, at Eagles, Washington) have a combined record of 17-22 (.436).
Since one of these two teams has to make the playoffs, here’s a breakdown of the various scenarios that could play out over the next three weeks.
Note: The NFC East winner is locked into the No. 4 seed, which would mean a home playoff game against the first wild-card team (the No. 5 seed). Right now, that would be the Seahawks. It could also end up being the 49ers, Vikings or Packers. And if you want to include the highly unlikely candidates, throw in the Rams and Bears.
Scenario 1: Either the Cowboys or Eagles win out
Obviously, both cannot win out since they play each other in Week 16. But going into Week 15, both Doug Pederson and Jason Garrett can tell their teams that they “control their own destinies.” If one of the two teams wins out, it will go into the playoffs as the NFC East champion at 9-7.
Scenario 2: One of the teams picks up a game on the other
Another obvious one. But if one team goes 2-1 and the other goes 1-2, or if one team goes 1-2 and the other goes 0-3, that will determine the division. In the latter scenario, a team would win the division at 7-9.
Scenario 3: They finish with the same record, but the Cowboys win the Week 16 matchup
In this scenario, the Cowboys are NFC East champs. The first tiebreak is head-to-head record. The Cowboys beat the Eagles 37-10 in Week 7. If they beat them again, they’d win all tiebreak scenarios. Why is this important? The Cowboys are not dead if they lose to the Rams on Sunday. Even if they drop that game, they still control their fate and can win the division with victories in the final two games.
If both teams go 2-1 down the stretch and the Cowboys win the Week 16 game, Dallas is in. If both teams go 1-2 down the stretch, and the Cowboys win the Week 16 game, they’re also in.
The one scenario where the Eagles could lose in Week 16 but still win the division is if they win their other two games and the Cowboys lose their other two games. That would give the Eagles an edge at 8-8 over 7-9 Dallas.
Scenario 4: They finish with the same record, the Eagles win the Week 16 matchup, lose to Washington in Week 15 and beat the Giants in Week 17
This is where it gets fun. In this scenario, both teams finish at 8-8. The head-to-head tiebreak would be a wash since the teams would split. The next tiebreak would be division record.
The Eagles’ division record would be 4-2, assuming a loss to Washington. The Cowboys’ division record would be 5-1.
So if the Cowboys were to beat the Rams this weekend and the Eagles lose to Washington, the Eagles would be in big trouble. Even if they beat the Cowboys in Week 16, Pederson’s team would need to beat the Giants in Week 17 and have Dallas lose to Washington to get in.
Scenario 5: They finish with the same record, the Eagles win the Week 16 matchup, beat Washington in Week 15 and lose to the Giants in Week 17
This is pretty much the same scenario as the previous one. Let’s say the Eagles win the next two and go into Week 17 at 8-7, and the Cowboys beat the Rams and go into Week 17 at 7-8. If the Eagles lose their finale to the Giants and the Cowboys beat Washington to put both teams at 8-8, Dallas’ division record (5-1) would be better. The Cowboys would make the postseason.
Scenario 6: They finish with the same record, the Eagles win the Week 16 matchup but lose to Washington in Week 15 and the Giants in Week 17
In this scenario, both teams finish at 7-9. The Eagles would be 3-3 in the division, while the Cowboys would be either 4-2 or 5-1. Dallas would win the division.
What you may have noticed above is that the Cowboys win every tiebreak scenario. (Don’t ask me about ties.) If the two teams finish with the same record, the Cowboys are in. The Eagles have to finish with a better record than Dallas, one way or another, to take the division.
According to Football Outsiders, the Cowboys have a 66.4 percent chance of getting in, while the Eagles are at 33.6 percent.
