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By Sheil Kapadia Aug 6, 2020
Last year served as another reminder of how defensive performance can fluctuate year over year in the NFL.
The New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers and Pittsburgh Steelers produced the top three defenses in the league. None ranked in the top 10 in 2018. And that wasn’t an anomaly. It’s difficult to build a defense that consistently performs at a high level over an extended period of time.
So which teams are most likely to make the leap in 2020? And which defenses could take a step back? Here’s one attempt at trying to predict the chaos.
Note that rankings from last year are from Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.
1. Baltimore Ravens
Last year: 4th
Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale’s blitz-heavy scheme worked wonders last year. The Ravens had the second-worst injury luck of any defense but were still a top-five unit. Martindale sent five rushers or more on a league-high 55.9 percent of opponents’ dropbacks. He flooded the field with defensive backs — the Ravens were in nickel or dime 85 percent of the time — and called for a heavy dose of man coverage. Up front, the Ravens kept Matthew Judon on the franchise tag, traded for Calais Campbell and signed Derek Wolfe. They used the No. 28 overall pick on athletic linebacker Patrick Queen. Slot corner Tavon Young (missed all of last season with a neck injury) will join outside starters Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters. And the Ravens have a strong safety pairing in Chuck Clark and Earl Thomas, although Thomas turned 31 this offseason. Baltimore has built its offense through the draft and its defense through trades and free agency. This is a veteran group that is strong on the back end.
2. Los Angeles Chargers
Last year: 21st
Taking a big swing here, but there are legitimate reasons to be bullish about the Chargers’ defense. They were last in red-zone defense, last in short-yardage defense and produced turnovers at the fourth-lowest rate of any team last season. Those are areas that involve at least some luck and randomness, and the Chargers very well could bounce back. Their talent is better too. Safety Derwin James missed 11 games last season, and the Chargers signed Chris Harris Jr. to be their slot corner. First-round pick Kenneth Murray should offer an immediate upgrade at linebacker, and Linval Joseph is a savvy veteran addition at defensive tackle. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are among the top pass-rushing duos in the league. Scheme-wise, the Chargers played Cover-3 (a three-deep zone with four underneath defenders) at the highest percentage of any team last year. In interviews this offseason, defensive coordinator Gus Bradley has acknowledged needing to incorporate more man and more split-safety looks. If there’s a defense that could make a 49ers-like leap this season, it’s the Chargers.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
Last year: 3rd
The defense carried the Steelers to a .500 record last season, and they return 13 of 15 players who logged at least 200 snaps (gone are nose tackle Javon Hargrave and linebacker Mark Barron). T.J. Watt (14.5 sacks, 36 QB hits last season) leads a pass-rush unit that produced a sack or hit on a league-high 27.9 percent of opponents’ dropbacks. And that was with defensive lineman Stephon Tuitt missing 10 games. At linebacker, Devin Bush just turned 22 years old and is positioned to make a second-year leap. And Minkah Fitzpatrick was one of the best defensive players in the league last season. One area where the Steelers are unlikely to have the same success is turnovers. They produced a takeaway on a league-high 20.3 percent of opponents’ drives. That will be tough to repeat. But overall, this group is loaded with talent and should be among the league’s best once again.
4. New Orleans Saints
Last year: 11th
They have the pieces to turn into a top-five defense. Malcolm Jenkins was a great signing and will give the Saints a veteran leader on the back end who can play the run, blitz and match up with tight ends and running backs. New Orleans has a versatile secondary with guys like Marcus Williams, P.J. Williams and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. They can match up with different types of offenses and have the personnel to play a lot of dime. Up front, Cam Jordan is one of the best defensive linemen in the league. Demario Davis is a very good off-ball linebacker. And the Saints have young players like Marshon Lattimore and Marcus Davenport who should be entering their prime. It’s an impressive blend of youth and experience that has the potential to work really well together.
5. Chicago Bears
Last year: 8th
They have the potential to produce the best pass-rushing defensive line in the league. The combination of Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn on the edge will be as tough to block as any in the NFL. And Akiem Hicks (missed 11 games last season) is one of the league’s most disruptive interior linemen. On the back end, the Bears need second-round pick Jaylon Johnson (or someone else on the roster) to be a competent number two corner opposite Kyle Fuller. They have Pro Bowl safety Eddie Jackson, and Tashaun Gipson could prove to be an upgrade over Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. A couple things need to fall their way, but this group has a high ceiling.
6. San Francisco 49ers
Last year: 2nd
The 49ers’ performance last year was especially impressive considering they had below-average injury luck. Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh leaned on suffocating zone coverages — Cover-3 and Cover-4 (a four-across zone with three underneath defenders) — while relying on the front four to produce pressure without blitzing. San Francisco traded DeForest Buckner to the Colts but still has Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead up front. The 49ers need Dee Ford to be healthy and productive and could use an immediate contribution from first-round pick Javon Kinlaw at defensive tackle. Fred Warner headlines one of the best linebacker corps in the league, and the 49ers return their top six defensive backs from last year, including number one corner Richard Sherman. They won’t be quite as good without Buckner but should still be strong overall.
7. Denver Broncos
Last year: 13th
There are a number of reasons to believe they can be better in 2020. One, turnovers are part luck and part skill, and the Broncos were unlucky last season. They produced a turnover on just 8.9 percent of opponents’ drives, which was tied for last. Meanwhile, only five defenses suffered worse injury luck. And 2019 was the first year for the players in Vic Fangio’s system. The Broncos traded for corner A.J. Bouye and veteran defensive tackle Jurrell Casey. They have legit blue-chip players in Von Miller, Bradley Chubb (missed 12 games because of an ACL injury last season) and safety Justin Simmons. If they get solid cornerback play, the Broncos could field one of the league’s top defenses.
8. Buffalo Bills
Last year: 6th
They had some things fall their way last season. The Bills faced the second-easiest slate of offenses and had the third-best injury luck of any defense. But this is a well-coached unit, and it’s obvious that the players know what Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier want from them. Tre’Davious White is one of the top corners in the league, so if he opts out, the Bills would drop out of the top-10 here. But they have a solid safety pairing with Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer, and five of the six defensive backs who played at least 200 snaps last year are back. Buffalo has had some turnover in the front-seven and could really benefit from a young player like defensive tackle Ed Oliver or linebacker Tremaine Edmunds taking a step forward. But overall this group is positioned to once again be strong.
9. New England Patriots
Last year: 1st
They also had a lot of things go their way last season. The Patriots faced the easiest slate of opposing offenses and also had the best injury luck of any defense. They flooded the field with defensive backs (five or more 83 percent of the time) and played a lot of man coverage. New England counted on scheme rather than talent to produce pressure. But having the same level of success could be a challenge. Among the 14 players who played 400 snaps or more, six are no longer on the roster — either because they signed elsewhere, were traded or opted out. The most notable are Dont’a Hightower, Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins and Patrick Chung. On one hand, Bill Belichick has made a career out of finding solutions for problems like this, and the Patriots still have an excellent group of corners, led by Stephon Gilmore. On the other, last season was the first time since 2006 the Patriots produced a defense that finished in the top-10 in DVOA. All things considered, they’re likely to take a step back. It’s just a matter of how big of a step that is.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last year: 5th
They were a classic example of traditional stats not telling the whole story. The Bucs’ offense had a league-high 41 turnovers, constantly putting the defense in tough situations. But Todd Bowles’ group hung tough and ranked fifth in DVOA. They have one of the best defensive lines in the league, headlined by Shaq Barrett (19.5 sacks, 37 quarterback hits, six forced fumbles last season), Jason Pierre-Paul (8.5 sacks in 10 games) and Vita Vea. Devin White and Lavonte David form one of the league’s better linebacker tandems. Add it all up, and the Bucs have one of the best front-sevens in the NFL. The secondary has questions, but Tampa’s top three corners will all be 23 or younger at the start of the season, so expecting them to improve is reasonable.
11. Minnesota Vikings
Last year: 7th
Mike Zimmer is one of the best defensive coaches in the league, but he faces a stiff challenge in getting this group to be as good as last year’s unit. Their top three corners from last season — Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander — are no longer on the roster. They lost Everson Griffen (still a free agent) and Linval Joseph up front. And the big free agent they signed, nose tackle Michael Pierce, opted out. The cupboard isn’t completely bare. The Vikings still have a premiere pass rusher in Danielle Hunter (14.5 sacks, 22 QB hits last season), an excellent linebacker in Eric Kendricks and a very good safety pairing in Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris. There’s a case to be made that the new group of corners can actually be better than last year’s trio, considering how badly Rhodes struggled. The Vikings have a lot of question marks, and their depth could be tested more than last year when they had the second-healthiest defense. But Zimmer is too good to rank them any lower than this.
12. Philadelphia Eagles
Last year: 12th
In four years with Jim Schwartz, the Eagles’ defense has produced two top-five finishes and has never finished lower than 15th. Their defensive line could be special in 2020. The Eagles signed Javon Hargrave to team with Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham. Derek Barnett has been a solid starter and is only 24 years old. And the Eagles will get back Malik Jackson, who suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1 last season. It’s a deep and talented group that could be among the league’s best. In the secondary, the Eagles traded for Darius Slay and signed Nickell Robey-Coleman. The plan is to go with a heavy dose of man coverage. The secondary still has questions at safety and corner, and the linebackers will almost certainly be a weakness, but between Schwartz and the defensive line, this defense has a high floor.
13. Green Bay Packers
Last year: 15th
Because they have so many young players — corners Jaire Alexander and Kevin King, safety Darnell Savage, defensive lineman Rashan Gary — the Packers can realistically count on the same personnel producing better results. They just need one or two of those guys to take a big step forward. Za’Darius Smith was legitimately one of the best defensive players in the league last season, and Preston Smith was a home run free-agent signing as well. Mike Pettine will continue to prioritize pass defense (they were in sub packages 81 percent of the time), but the Packers need to be better against the run than they were last season. This is a high-floor, high-ceiling group.
14. Seattle Seahawks
Last year: 18th
Regardless of whether it made sense for the Seahawks to give up so much for Jamal Adams, they added an All-Pro talent who should be entering his prime to the back end of their defense. Adams, Bobby Wagner, Quandre Diggs and Shaquill Griffin are all talented players, but the Seahawks are positioned to field one of the worst pass-rush groups in the league. And with Quinton Dunbar’s status for 2020 uncertain, they are thin at corner. This group should be better than last season but is probably a corner and a pass rusher away from jumping up to the next tier of defenses.
(Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports)
15. Indianapolis Colts
Last year: 17th
Teaming DeForest Buckner with linebacker Darius Leonard offers a great foundation. But the Colts have serious questions on the back end. Xavier Rhodes was one of the worst starting corners in the league last year. They need him to rebound, and they need Rock Ya-Sin to take a step forward in his second season. The team made its feelings clear on free safety Malik Hooker when it declined to pick up his fifth-year option. The front seven with Buckner, Justin Houston, Leonard and Anthony Walker has the potential to be one of the best in the league. But even though the Colts play a lot of Cover-2 (two-deep zone with five underneath defenders), it’s tough to see their secondary being better than league average.
16. Cleveland Browns
Last year: 22nd
Their defense was not bad for the first part of last season but fell apart after Myles Garrett was suspended for the final six games. Just getting him back for a full season will offer a huge boost. The Browns are thin at linebacker, but their cornerback trio of Denzel Ward, Greedy Williams and Kevin Johnson offers legitimate upside. Cleveland is counting on better safety play after signing Karl Joseph and Andrew Sendejo and drafting Grant Delpit in the second round. This group has potential, but breaking in four new starters and a new coordinator (Joe Woods) in a shortened offseason could be tricky.
17. Los Angeles Rams
Last year: 9th
Starting with the best defensive player in football (Aaron Donald) and one of the best corners (Jalen Ramsey) offers a solid foundation and a relatively high floor. But there are reasons for concern with this group. They’re moving on from Wade Phillips, one of the best defensive coordinators of this era, and handing the keys over to a relative unknown in Brandon Staley. As for personnel, the Rams lost six players who logged at least 400 snaps last season. They don’t have much pass rush outside of Donald, and linebacker is a big question. Add everything up, and it’s a lot of turnover during a shortened offseason.
18. Tennessee Titans
Last year: 16th
Unless second-year player Jeffery Simmons makes a big leap or the Titans sign Jadeveon Clowney, it’s tough to see a scenario where they get significantly better defensively in 2020. Tennessee lost defensive coordinator Dean Pees, along with six players who played 200-plus snaps last season. The linebackers are strong, and Kevin Byard is one of the league’s best safeties. But the pass rush and coverage figure to be mediocre. The Titans could be counting on rookie corner Kristian Fulton to be a full-time player and Vic Beasley to be more consistent than he was in Atlanta. They were well-coached last year, and the whole was greater than the sum of their parts. But overall the Titans project to be a solid, yet unspectacular, defense.
19. Washington Football Team
Last year: 24th
They’ve poured resources into their defensive line but have not seen results. No. 2 overall pick Chase Young has the potential to be special and could unlock this group’s upside. On paper, Young, Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne, Montez Sweat, Matt Ioannidis and Ryan Kerrigan is as talented and as deep a defensive line as there is in the NFL. Last offseason, Washington spent big on safety Landon Collins, and this offseason it added Kendall Fuller. The secondary still has below-average talent, and it’ll be up to Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio to make all the pieces fit.
20. Kansas City Chiefs
Last year: 14th
Chris Jones and Frank Clark form one of the top pass-rushing tandems in the league. And watching Tyrann Mathieu find his footing in Steve Spagnuolo’s scheme last season was a treat for football nerds. But this group has plenty of questions. They lost Kendall Fuller in free agency, safety Juan Thornhill is recovering from a torn ACL he suffered in late December, and corner Bashaud Breeland is facing a suspension. The Chiefs’ defense doesn’t have to be great for them to repeat. It just has to be mediocre.
21. Arizona Cardinals
Last year: 23rd
They were active in the offseason, signing defensive tackle Jordan Phillips, edge rusher Devon Kennard and off-ball linebacker De’Vondre Campbell. The Cardinals’ biggest move on defense was drafting hybrid safety/linebacker Isaiah Simmons eighth overall. Chandler Jones had 19 sacks and 26 QB hits last year and has been a consistently great pass rusher. Budda Baker is one of the best young safeties in the game. But the Cardinals have questions at corner. Patrick Peterson is 30 and didn’t look like himself after returning from suspension last season. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph employed a blitz-heavy, man-coverage scheme without much success. Unless Simmons is generating Defensive Player of the Year buzz, this group is likely headed for mediocrity.
22. Atlanta Falcons
Last year: 20th
After Dan Quinn handed the keys over to Raheem Morris for the second half of last season, the Falcons’ defense was a lot better. But will that improvement carry over to 2020? Grady Jarrett is among the league’s best interior pass rushers, and the Falcons replaced Vic Beasley with Dante Fowler, which should be an upgrade. In the back end, no team performed worse last year when opposing wide receivers were targeted. Atlanta is replacing Desmond Trufant with first-round pick A.J. Terrell. He could be good eventually, but asking a rookie to play corner at a high level, especially given the shortened offseason, might be a stretch. This group just has too many question marks to rise above mediocrity.
23. Dallas Cowboys
Last year: 19th
It’s tough to know what to expect from this group and new coordinator Mike Nolan. They’ll likely be more blitz-heavy and less vanilla than they were last year. But will they be better? Dallas lost two of its best defensive players in Robert Quinn and corner Byron Jones. They added veteran defensive tackles Gerald McCoy and Dontari Poe and used a second-round pick on talented corner Trevon Diggs. They’re set at linebacker with Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch. New starting safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix has had tackling issues and is on his fourth team in three seasons. This is a high-variance group, but with five potential new starters and a new coordinator, it’d be wise to temper expectations.
24. Las Vegas Raiders
Last year: 31st
The personnel will look a lot different than last year. The Raiders signed defensive tackle Maliek Collins, linebackers Cory Littleton and Nick Kwiatkoski, cornerback Prince Amukamara, safety Damarious Randall and rotational defensive end Carl Nassib. They also used a first-round pick on corner Damon Arnette. The Raiders need more from 2019 fourth overall pick Clelin Ferrell but have to be excited about second-year player Maxx Crosby. They should be talented enough to vault into the middle tier of defenses in 2020.
25. Cincinnati Bengals
Last year: 30th
They were unexpected spenders in free agency, adding nose tackle D.J. Reader, corners Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander and safety Vonn Bell. The new guys will mix in with veterans like Geno Atkins, Carlos Dunlap and William Jackson III. There were signs of improvement last season under first-time coordinator Lou Anarumo. The Bengals were better statistically in the second half of the season. It’s not the most talented group, but the Bengals are certainly a more professional-looking unit than a year ago.
26. Houston Texans
Last year: 26th
J.J. Watt led the team with 21 quarterback hits even though he missed half the season in 2019. Watt has averaged eight games per season since 2016. If he can stay healthy, this could be an above-average group. But without Watt, the pass rush doesn’t have much juice. At corner, the Texans brought back Bradley Roby and got some good snaps from Gareon Conley after a midseason trade. Other than Watt, they just don’t have a lot of difference-makers.
27. Miami Dolphins
Last year: 32nd
They were big spenders in free agency, adding corner Byron Jones, defensive end Shaq Lawson and edge defender Kyle Van Noy. It’s clear that Brian Flores wants to play a lot of man coverage and is building the defense from the back to the front. Jones and Xavien Howard offer a talented, but expensive, pair of corners. The Dolphins also used a first-round pick on Noah Igbinoghene, who’s expected to be the nickel. But the Dolphins’ lack of talent in the front seven will likely prevent them from making a more significant leap.
28. Detroit Lions
Last year: 28th
Their defense has finished 27th and 28th in two seasons under Matt Patricia. The Lions’ offseason plan centered on finding former Patriots to fill perceived holes. They signed nose tackle Danny Shelton and linebacker Jamie Collins while trading for safety Duron Harmon. Detroit drafted corner Jeff Okudah third overall and signed veteran Desmond Trufant. But they also traded away Darius Slay. The Lions bring back some solid pieces like Trey Flowers, Jahlani Tavai and slot corner Justin Coleman. On paper, this should at least be a mediocre defense. But Patricia has not shown that he’s capable of maximizing the talent available to him.
29. New York Jets
Last year: 10th
Gregg Williams would have to again work a miracle for the Jets to repeat last year’s performance. With C.J. Mosley opting out and Jamal Adams getting traded to Seattle, this is one of the least-talented defenses in the NFL. They should be able to stop the run, but rushing the passer and covering are going to be problems. Williams will try to scheme it up with his blitz-happy approach, but this group is primed for a huge step backwards.
30. Jacksonville Jaguars
Last year: 29th
The cupboard is not bare. Josh Allen was really impressive as a rookie with 10.5 sacks and 23 quarterback hits. And the Jaguars added two more talented pieces in the first round of the draft, selecting corner C.J. Henderson and edge defender K’Lavon Chaisson. The linebacker combination of Joe Schobert and Myles Jack is solid also. But Jacksonville is clearly in a transition period, having traded Jalen Ramsey, Calais Campbell and A.J. Bouye. They still have to figure out what they’re going to do with Yannick Ngakoue, but it seems highly unlikely he’ll plan another snap for them. If the Jaguars can get immediate contributions from their rookies, they can rise much higher than this.
31. New York Giants
Last year: 27th
GM Dave Gettleman has invested in run-stopping defensive tackles like Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence. That’s an area where the Giants should be strong. But the pass defense is a different story. New York signed corner James Bradberry, but DeAndre Baker’s status is up in the air, and Sam Beal opted out. They got edge defender Markus Golden back but otherwise don’t have much pass rush. Xavier McKinney was a nice find at safety in the second round, but overall this defense just lacks impact players.
32. Carolina Panthers
Last year: 25th
Matt Rhule’s squad spent all seven draft selections on the defensive side of the ball. That included using the seventh overall pick on defensive tackle Derrick Brown. The Panthers have some nice young pieces, and edge rusher Brian Burns could end up being a star. But they’re young and looking at six new starters with a new scheme and a new coordinator. That’s tough, given the nature of this offseason.
