The Athletic: Predicting Week 1 NFL starting QBs for all 32 teams - Where are Deshaun Watson, Jimmy Garoppolo?

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The Athletic NFL Staff 4h ago

With the NFL about to swing into the free-agency frenzy and the draft not far behind, teams will be making moves in the coming weeks to secure their starting quarterbacks for next season and potentially beyond.

More than half of the teams have some level of uncertainty at the position, whether that’s because of performance, salary or discontent. So, to gauge where everyone stands a week before negotiations can begin with free agents, The Athletic’s beat writers predicted who will be the Week 1 starter at quarterback for the teams they cover and broke down the reasons each player and team are in the positions they’re in.

Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray
Murray is the franchise, linked with coach Kliff Kingsbury. Last season, the ultraquick quarterback started so fast some put him in the MVP conversation. It proved premature. Opponents focused on his scrambling/rushing ability, which limited his effectiveness. After two seasons, it’s still unclear whether Murray is a future star, but there’s no denying the excitement he brings. The Cardinals have decisions to make behind him. Last season’s No. 2, Chris Streveler, didn’t play well in limited action and Brett Hundley is a free agent. This month, the Cardinals signed Cole McDonald to a futures contract. — Doug Haller

Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan
The hot topic of the offseason is whether Atlanta drafts a quarterback with the No. 4 pick. Regardless of which way the Falcons lean, Ryan will still be the quarterback in 2021. His contract has been reworked three times. The Falcons do not have the ability to move on from him, so he’s not going anywhere. — Tori McElhaney

Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson
This is a big year for the former MVP as he is entering the final year of his rookie deal — the Ravens have a fifth-year option for 2022 they’ll almost certainly exercise — and looking to get the Ravens past the divisional round of the playoffs. — Jeff Zrebiec

Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen
Allen broke through last season, setting single-season franchise records with 4,544 passing yards, 37 touchdown passes and 396 completions. The only questions are when the Bills sign him to an extension and for how much, as he’s entering the final year of his rookie contract. With Matt Barkley hitting free agency, the Bills also must decide what to do at backup. Jake Fromm and Davis Webb are the only in-house options remaining. — Joe Buscaglia

Carolina Panthers: Deshaun Watson
The disgruntled Texans quarterback could be a candidate for a few teams, but owner David Tepper is determined to take a big swing at Watson after enduring three losing seasons since buying the Panthers. He may not land Watson, but it won’t be for a lack of trying. — Joseph Person

Chicago Bears: Nick Foles
This deserves an asterisk. The Bears have repeatedly said “everything’s on the table” at quarterback this offseason. Ryan Pace also said they’re preparing to “pivot” based on what happens in trades and free agency. Right now, Foles is the only quarterback under contract. Would the Bears like to find an upgrade? Sure, they would; they’re trying. — Adam Jahns

Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow
Doctors were confident at the time of Burrow’s ACL surgery that he could be ready to start Week 1, and word from inside Paul Brown Stadium is that his rehab is going great and there is no reason to doubt the initial timeline. — Jay Morrison

Cleveland Browns: Baker Mayfield
Mayfield had a shaky start to last season, but his strong finish helped push the Browns to the playoffs. Mayfield is now extension eligible, and though there’s no strong indication of how the team will handle his contract situation, all involved are optimistic Mayfield will maintain his confidence level and improved accuracy as the Browns go after bigger prizes this fall. — Zac Jackson

Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott
Prescott is expected to be the Cowboys’ Week 1 starter for the sixth consecutive season after agreeing to a four-year deal worth $160 million on Monday. He’s coming off a significant ankle injury from Week 5, but all indications are that he will be fully healthy for the start of the season. — Jon Machota

Denver Broncos: Drew Lock
Don’t get it twisted. New GM George Paton is searching for other options. If Houston caves and makes Watson available, expect the Broncos to be in hot pursuit. But landing Watson remains unlikely for a number of reasons. Expect the Broncos to sign a veteran backup in free agency and entertain the possibility of selecting a quarterback in the first round. All of those things could threaten Lock’s status in the organization, but for now, we are predicting he begins his third season as the Week 1 starter. — Nick Kosmider

Detroit Lions: Jared Goff
New GM (and former Rams director of college scouting) Brad Holmes knows Goff as well as anyone, and he seems willing to find out whether the No. 1 pick in 2016 can rediscover his game. Even drafting a quarterback in the top 10 might not change that plan this season. — Chris Burke

Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers, 37, has three years left on his contract and just won his third MVP award. Jordan Love, the Packers’ 2020 first-round pick, isn’t even his backup. At least in 2021 and likely beyond, Rodgers will try to become the second player with more than three NFL MVP awards. — Matt Schneidman

Houston Texans: Ryan Fitzpatrick
Fitzpatrick went 6-6 in 12 games as a starter for Houston in 2014. A second stint with the Texans could make sense in two scenarios: He’s a stopgap while Watson sits out the year or he begins the year as the starter before eventually handing the job to whichever rookie the Texans draft with a pick they acquire in a Watson trade this offseason. — Aaron Reiss

Indianapolis Colts: Carson Wentz
The Colts’ belief is that, via last month’s trade with Philadelphia, they’ve not only landed this year’s starting quarterback, but also a player they can build around for the foreseeable future. Wentz now has the chance to reunite with Frank Reich and revive his career in Indianapolis, and his chances look promising, with an elite offensive line and a talented young running back in Jonathan Taylor. The Colts will likely add another quarterback via free agency, but they’ve liked what they have seen so far from Jacob Eason, who could very well end up being Wentz’s backup this season and moving forward. — Zak Keefer


Trevor Lawrence is expected to be the Week 1 starter for the Jaguars as a rookie. (Alika Jenner / Getty Images)
Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence
This isn’t quite as serendipitous as Kingsbury moving up from the college ranks and taking a quarterback who played in the same offensive system in Murray, but that Urban Meyer comes from the college ranks (albeit with two years off) should allow him to accurately gauge how much he can put on Lawrence. The offense Lawrence ran at Clemson was different from the one Meyer ran at Ohio State, but Meyer should have a good idea of the kind of knowledge base Lawrence will have as he enters the league. (What exactly do you think Meyer and Tigers coach Dabo Swinney were talking about at Lawrence’s pro day — old recruiting stories?) This should allow Meyer, Darrell Bevell and Brian Schottenheimer to tailor the offense around Lawrence and have him ready to start on Day 1. — Andy Staples

Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes
The biggest concern for the Chiefs next season is their ability to protect Mahomes with a stronger, healthier offensive line. This will be the first time in Mahomes’ five-year career he’ll begin a season coming off of surgery in the offseason, as he had a procedure days after the Super Bowl to repair a torn plantar plate in his left foot. — Nate Taylor

Las Vegas Raiders: Derek Carr
The Raiders aren’t going to trade for Russell Wilson unless something unforeseen happens. They are pretty comfortable with Carr, who is coming off his best season under Jon Gruden and has two years left at $19.5 million per on a now friendly, pay-as-you-go deal. Marcus Mariota was unable to push Carr last season, and if he doesn’t take a big pay cut to come back as the No. 2, Nathan Peterman will be on clipboard-holding duty. — Vic Tafur

Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert
The Chargers will be starting the reigning offensive rookie of the year at quarterback this season. Easton Stick, whom the Chargers drafted in the fifth round in 2019, is likely to be Herbert’s backup, with Tyrod Taylor set to hit free agency. — Daniel Popper

Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Stafford
The Rams and Lions agreed to a blockbuster trade in January that will bring Stafford to Los Angeles and send Goff, a third-round pick and two first-round picks to Detroit. Head coach Sean McVay believes Stafford is the Rams’ missing piece toward a deep playoff push. — Jourdan Rodrigue

Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa
The 23-year-old quarterback should benefit from a full offseason training in South Florida. The Dolphins are also expected to prioritize adding talent at wide receiver and running back in the draft and in free agency. With additional playmakers and talent, Tagovailoa will look to build off a season in which he went 6-3 as the starter. The Dolphins figure to be part of the Watson sweepstakes, but they might not be willing to part with three or even four first-round draft picks. — Josh Tolentino

Minnesota Vikings: Kirk Cousins
Sure, there was some speculation about a trade, but that was mainly because other teams were interested, not because the Vikings are looking to move Cousins. Their ownership group wants to make the playoffs in 2021 and believes trading Cousins would hurt those chances. — Chad Graff

New England Patriots: Jimmy Garoppolo
There’s a feeling around the NFL the 49ers are bluffing with their public backing of Garoppolo. If they trade him, I’d be surprised if they recoup anything higher than a Saturday draft pick, regardless of the inflated prices in previous quarterback trades. The Patriots would do well to take on the non-guaranteed $51.1 million in his contract over the next two years and hope to revitalize the spurt of success he displayed in 2016. They would also still have the resources to draft a quarterback to pair with the oft-injured Garoppolo. — Jeff Howe

New Orleans Saints: Jameis Winston
Though Drew Brees hasn’t officially retired yet, it sure seems like the future is one of the other quarterbacks in the building. Winston would not only have to re-sign with the Saints, but he’d also have to win the job over Taysom Hill in training camp. That seems like a strong possibility, though. Despite his up-and-down stint with Tampa Bay over the years, Winston has a ton of experience and could be intriguing when paired with Sean Payton’s offense. — Katherine Terrell

New York Giants: Daniel Jones
While teams around the league are looking to make changes at quarterback, the Giants are all in on Jones. The sixth pick in the 2019 draft had a rocky second season, but the Giants believe he has the traits to be a franchise quarterback. The hope is for improved protection and other players who can enable Jones to reach his potential in 2021. — Dan Duggan

New York Jets: Zach Wilson
The Jets will be in on Watson. It’s just a matter of whether the Texans decide to move him. If he stays in Houston, Wilson is the logical contingency plan. He’s a perfect fit in Mike LaFleur’s offense and resets the rookie contract clock for Joe Douglas and company. It’s tough to see the Jets running it back with Sam Darnold after last year’s regression. — Connor Hughes

Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts
Hurts will be the only quarterback under contract when the new league year begins, and the 2020 second-round pick should be considered the front-runner to start. He started four games as a rookie after Wentz was benched and showed potential, although it might not have been convincing enough to make him the undisputed starter in 2021. Considering the Eagles are picking No. 6, there’s a chance they use their first-round pick on a passer. Otherwise, expect them to go with Hurts. — Zach Berman

Pittsburgh Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger
Roethlisberger returns for his 18th season at 39 after working out a new contract with the Steelers that will give them some salary-cap room. Roethlisberger has a new coordinator, his fifth, in Matt Canada, who will require more adjustments in his play next season. — Ed Bouchette

San Francisco 49ers: Jimmy Garoppolo
The 49ers certainly will pick up the phone if Watson trade talks heat up. But they don’t have the reservoir of draft picks other teams can offer, which makes Watson a long shot. They’ve been to a Super Bowl with Garoppolo and are confident he can get better. — Matt Barrows

Seattle Seahawks: Russell Wilson
Even though Wilson is very, very frustrated with his situation, the Seahawks have zero interest in trading him. For Seattle, an unhappy quarterback is better than no quarterback at all. Especially one as talented as Wilson. — Michael-Shawn Dugar

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tom Brady
Even at age 44, Brady will be the Bucs’ starting quarterback in Week 1, leading Tampa Bay’s efforts to repeat as Super Bowl champs. He’ll seek an eighth ring, likely with much the same supporting cast that just won. Would he retire with another title? — Greg Auman

Tennessee Titans: Ryan Tannehill
When Tannehill signed a four-year, $118 million deal last offseason, one of the first questions was: When can the Titans get out of it if they’re wrong? Now the question is: How much of a value is this going to look like at the end of four years? The 32-year-old followed up his revelatory relief season of 2019 (9-4 as the starter, an NFL-best 117.5 passer rating) by accounting for a franchise-record 40 touchdowns (with 33 touchdown passes), throwing for 3,819 yards and finishing fifth with a 106.5 passer rating as the Titans won the AFC South title for the first time since 2008. Tannehill on this deal for the next three seasons is one of the best things the Titans have going for them. — Joe Rexrode

Washington Football Team: Kyle Allen
Let’s be honest. There’s no obvious answer on the roster or on the horizon. Think Washington should just draft a QB? Cool, but have you read a mock draft recently? At best, one of the projected five first-round selections will be available at No. 19, according to current thinking, and that’s without counting other teams trading up for help. Washington could be a trade-up team, but the potential cost is tricky. Sign a free agent or make a trade? Look at the broken pieces out there. Mariota? Darnold? Tyrod Taylor? Um, sure, I guess. Even if Washington goes down one of those routes — and I’d guess veteran over rookie — it’s a dart throw. Therefore, the safe guess is Washington re-signs Allen, an exclusive-rights free agent and favorite of coach Ron Rivera, and he beats out Taylor Heinicke with a mystery third party (Mariota?) looming. — Ben Standig
 
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