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By Daniel Kaplan Jun 23, 2020
The NFL will let teams set different attendance capacity limits when the schedule starts in August with the preseason, meaning some clubs could play in front of full, or nearly full stadiums and some before no fans. That could lead to questions about competitive equity, and whether the league should allow teams in empty or near-empty stadiums to pipe in crowd noise when the opposing team is on offense.
The league communicated to clubs that they follow local health COVID-19 guidelines on social distancing rules, which vary greatly state to state and are not always, arguably, in line with the trend line of local coronavirus cases. In other words, as of now, the NFL will not dictate capacity thresholds no matter the virus penetration on the ground.
“Attendance will be a state-by-state, county-by-county thing,” said one NFL source, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of coronavirus planning in NFL. “It will not be a one size fits all.
“I wish they would push back the start of the year to October to give us more time to learn from these other leagues.”
The NFL since the beginning of the pandemic has strived to operate business as usual, and that includes planning an all but normal season with fans in the stands. Troy Vincent, the NFL’s executive vice president of football operations, said last month the league expects full stadiums.
It’s not hard to understand the NFL’s stadium approach, with estimates the league could lose more than $3 billion by playing its 256 games and playoffs in front of no fans. Still, Patrick Ryan, the co-founder of ticket buyer and advisor Eventellect, believes the NFL is making a mistake in leaving it to local authorities on how many fans to accommodate.
“I’m shocked by that because I think you’ll see some markets like let’s just say Jacksonville where they’re like, ‘Fine, you can have 100 percent attendance,’” Ryan said. “And then like, LA is like 15 percent attendance. I would just think that the owner in LA, he would say, ‘This is unfair, this is a huge disadvantage.’ But it seems like that’s kind of the tone the league office is currently taking.
“I would say that the league would be behooved to say, ‘Hey, look, it’s going to be 10 percent until further notice.’ Or we’re going to ask the state of California, ‘Hey, what’s the (capacity) number today? What would the number be today?’ And whatever that number is, that’s the number, and then update it accordingly. But I just think it’s really unfair to the owners who would have to be playing in markets that just aren’t very open.”
The NFL did not reply for comment and most teams are not ready to talk about their social distancing plans, though some such as the New England Patriots and New York Giants are allowing season ticket holders to bypass 2020 altogether. While viewed as a goodwill gesture, it is also a recognition that in states such as Massachusetts and New Jersey, local health regulators may not allow even limited capacity, so the teams might need to tell many of those season ticket holders to stay away in any event.
TicketIQ, a ticket search engine, has been rating NFL teams based on the safety of attending, using metrics such as active COVID-19 cases and reinfection rate. In early May, 18 teams were considered low risk, but last week that class had declined to 12 as the virus has surged in new hotspots such as Florida, Texas and Arizona.
Many of those states suffering from virus surges have less restrictive rules than states seeing sharp declines, meaning if the NFL simply lets teams follow local rules, then in a worst-case scenario the games could become super-spreader events. Texas for example already allows 50 percent capacity at sporting events, while new coronavirus cases for the week ended June 21 rose 84 percent from the previous week.
“The last thing you want if you are the NFL is the front page of the sports section of The Athletic or the New York Times is, ‘Outbreak starts at Giants game,’’’ TicketIQ founder Jesse Lawrence said.
Based on his discussion with NFL teams, Lawrence says most are developing a range of capacity options. “Every team has run this scenario of zero, 25, 50, 70 percent there… Everyone has those plans in the hopper,” he said. “And then I think they’re going to pull out the plan that they feel like works at the start of the season, and if things change, they’re going to flip to Plan B or Plan C.”
The NFL has a stadium reopening task force led by the head of security Cathy Lanier that is expected to issue recommendations by next week or early July, the NFL source said. The best practices recommendations presumably will include protocols for mask-wearing, fan health screenings, and even how and if food is prepared.
“So some teams might be in situations where the local government doesn’t want them having prepared food, and everything has to be pre-bagged,” Ryan said. “There’s some risk of some venues not being allowed to serve anything. And so in that case, you’d be allowed to bring in your own water and certain snacks.”
Fans may be able to bring in food, but will home teams be able to bring in fake crowd noise? If the Dallas Cowboys have a roaring crowd against the Giants, but the inverse is not true, should MetLife scream out with fake crowd noise when Dak Prescott lines up under center? Currently, piping in artificial noise before a play is against league rules.
“It’s going to be a fascinating year because some of the more traditionally rabid fan bases, like when we think of places like Seattle, or Pittsburgh, traditionally, Kansas City, this is going to look and feel differently,” said Mike Tannenbaum, a former football executive with the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, and an ESPN commentator. “And I think that’s going to somewhat normalize outcomes from a standpoint that I don’t think we’re going to see the traditional home-field advantage as we knew it.”
Should the NFL set rules for crowd size or artificial fan noise?
“I think my opinion on that would be, if we were setting up for rules for the next 10 years, I could see that,” Tannenbaum said. “But this is such a unique year that I think, let’s not over-legislate things. And there will be some certain advantages and disadvantages. I get that.”
The NFL will let teams set different attendance capacity limits when the schedule starts in August with the preseason, meaning some clubs could play in front of full, or nearly full stadiums and some before no fans. That could lead to questions about competitive equity, and whether the league should allow teams in empty or near-empty stadiums to pipe in crowd noise when the opposing team is on offense.
The league communicated to clubs that they follow local health COVID-19 guidelines on social distancing rules, which vary greatly state to state and are not always, arguably, in line with the trend line of local coronavirus cases. In other words, as of now, the NFL will not dictate capacity thresholds no matter the virus penetration on the ground.
“Attendance will be a state-by-state, county-by-county thing,” said one NFL source, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of coronavirus planning in NFL. “It will not be a one size fits all.
“I wish they would push back the start of the year to October to give us more time to learn from these other leagues.”
The NFL since the beginning of the pandemic has strived to operate business as usual, and that includes planning an all but normal season with fans in the stands. Troy Vincent, the NFL’s executive vice president of football operations, said last month the league expects full stadiums.
It’s not hard to understand the NFL’s stadium approach, with estimates the league could lose more than $3 billion by playing its 256 games and playoffs in front of no fans. Still, Patrick Ryan, the co-founder of ticket buyer and advisor Eventellect, believes the NFL is making a mistake in leaving it to local authorities on how many fans to accommodate.
“I’m shocked by that because I think you’ll see some markets like let’s just say Jacksonville where they’re like, ‘Fine, you can have 100 percent attendance,’” Ryan said. “And then like, LA is like 15 percent attendance. I would just think that the owner in LA, he would say, ‘This is unfair, this is a huge disadvantage.’ But it seems like that’s kind of the tone the league office is currently taking.
“I would say that the league would be behooved to say, ‘Hey, look, it’s going to be 10 percent until further notice.’ Or we’re going to ask the state of California, ‘Hey, what’s the (capacity) number today? What would the number be today?’ And whatever that number is, that’s the number, and then update it accordingly. But I just think it’s really unfair to the owners who would have to be playing in markets that just aren’t very open.”
The NFL did not reply for comment and most teams are not ready to talk about their social distancing plans, though some such as the New England Patriots and New York Giants are allowing season ticket holders to bypass 2020 altogether. While viewed as a goodwill gesture, it is also a recognition that in states such as Massachusetts and New Jersey, local health regulators may not allow even limited capacity, so the teams might need to tell many of those season ticket holders to stay away in any event.
TicketIQ, a ticket search engine, has been rating NFL teams based on the safety of attending, using metrics such as active COVID-19 cases and reinfection rate. In early May, 18 teams were considered low risk, but last week that class had declined to 12 as the virus has surged in new hotspots such as Florida, Texas and Arizona.
Many of those states suffering from virus surges have less restrictive rules than states seeing sharp declines, meaning if the NFL simply lets teams follow local rules, then in a worst-case scenario the games could become super-spreader events. Texas for example already allows 50 percent capacity at sporting events, while new coronavirus cases for the week ended June 21 rose 84 percent from the previous week.
“The last thing you want if you are the NFL is the front page of the sports section of The Athletic or the New York Times is, ‘Outbreak starts at Giants game,’’’ TicketIQ founder Jesse Lawrence said.
Based on his discussion with NFL teams, Lawrence says most are developing a range of capacity options. “Every team has run this scenario of zero, 25, 50, 70 percent there… Everyone has those plans in the hopper,” he said. “And then I think they’re going to pull out the plan that they feel like works at the start of the season, and if things change, they’re going to flip to Plan B or Plan C.”
The NFL has a stadium reopening task force led by the head of security Cathy Lanier that is expected to issue recommendations by next week or early July, the NFL source said. The best practices recommendations presumably will include protocols for mask-wearing, fan health screenings, and even how and if food is prepared.
“So some teams might be in situations where the local government doesn’t want them having prepared food, and everything has to be pre-bagged,” Ryan said. “There’s some risk of some venues not being allowed to serve anything. And so in that case, you’d be allowed to bring in your own water and certain snacks.”
Fans may be able to bring in food, but will home teams be able to bring in fake crowd noise? If the Dallas Cowboys have a roaring crowd against the Giants, but the inverse is not true, should MetLife scream out with fake crowd noise when Dak Prescott lines up under center? Currently, piping in artificial noise before a play is against league rules.
“It’s going to be a fascinating year because some of the more traditionally rabid fan bases, like when we think of places like Seattle, or Pittsburgh, traditionally, Kansas City, this is going to look and feel differently,” said Mike Tannenbaum, a former football executive with the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, and an ESPN commentator. “And I think that’s going to somewhat normalize outcomes from a standpoint that I don’t think we’re going to see the traditional home-field advantage as we knew it.”
Should the NFL set rules for crowd size or artificial fan noise?
“I think my opinion on that would be, if we were setting up for rules for the next 10 years, I could see that,” Tannenbaum said. “But this is such a unique year that I think, let’s not over-legislate things. And there will be some certain advantages and disadvantages. I get that.”
