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Amy Parlapiano Sep 9, 2020
The past six months have been such a blur of days colliding into one another that we have all blinked and suddenly, there’s football on tomorrow. Safe to say there has never been as peculiar and unsettling of an offseason as this one, and yet here we are, with NFL kickoff staying on schedule and with some stadiums even allowing fans to attend at a limited capacity during Week 1. One of those stadiums is Arrowhead, where 22% of capacity will welcome the reigning Super Bowl champions back against the Houston Texans, who just signed their own dynamic young quarterback to a four-year, $160 million extension. Are the Chiefs about to embark upon a season that will result in the NFL’s first repeat title winner since the 2003 Patriots did it? Our panel of 46 writers and editors think so.
We polled our staff on that and much more, from each division winner to the first coach fired to whether the Super Bowl would be played in front of fans. Their variety of predictions, including a few very bold ones, are below. Remember, playoff expansion means that there will be three wild-card teams in each conference this year.
Who will win the AFC East?
| TEAM | VOTES |
|---|---|
 Buffalo Bills | 26 |
 New England Patriots | 19 |
 Miami Dolphins | 1 |
What a difference a year makes. Last season, we joked in this same predictions column about the one staff member who voted for the Bills to win the division. Now, 26 (56.5%) of the voters think that the Bills, who traded for WR Stefon Diggs this offseason and signed CB Tre’Davious White to a four-year, $70M extension last week, are heading toward their first AFC East win since 1995. That doesn’t mean it’s a runaway though — a good amount of voters still have enough trust in Bill Belichick to prevail regardless of the fact that his roster already was lacking in weapons before some key players opted out of the season (eight total). And shout out to the one person who is riding the Tua Train all the way to a division title.
Who will win the AFC North?
| TEAM | VOTES |
|---|---|
 Baltimore Ravens | 41 |
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 5 |
The Ravens are coming off of a historic, can’t-look-away season, and while it’s unlikely they’ll finish 14-2 again, 12-4 or 13-3 seem like good bets. They are the clearest roadblocks to the Chiefs in the AFC, but don’t count out the Steelers, who somehow finished 8-8 last year with Devlin Hodges and Mason Rudolph as their quarterbacks. With a healthy (and, according to reports from camp, an impressive) Ben Roethlisberger and standout defensive players Minkah Fitzpatrick and T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh could be the trendy pick to shake things up in the North (though just 10.9% of our staffers think they’ll actually win it.)
Who will win the AFC South?
| TEAM | VOTES |
|---|---|
 Indianapolis Colts | 33 |
 Houston Texans | 9 |
 Tennessee Titans | 4 |
In a year of constant change and confusion, one thing stays the same: Who really knows what to think about the AFC South? (Except that the Jaguars are going to be very bad.) Most voters here believe the Colts will find success in reuniting Frank Reich with Philip Rivers and putting Rivers behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. But say what you want about Bill O’Brien and his questionable decision-making and roster management (and there’s a lot to say about it) but the Texans have won the AFC South four of their six years under O’Brien, including the last two in a row. Over in Tennessee, (where Jadeveon Clowney now plays,) Ryan Tannehill’s performance from the second half of the 2019 season is not sustainable, but 8.7% of our voters still think Tennessee will be able to keep up some of the momentum from its AFC title game run.
Who will win the AFC West?
| TEAMS | VOTES |
|---|---|
 Kansas City Chiefs | 46 |
The only unanimous answer of any of the division picks, this one is a pretty safe lock in a relatively weak and young division. Though this will be hilarious to look back on if, say, the Las Vegas Raiders are somehow the best team in the league.
Who will win the NFC East?
| TEAM | VOTES |
|---|---|
 Dallas Cowboys | 41 |
 Philadelphia Eagles | 5 |
The expectations are high for the Cowboys, who garnered 89.1% of the votes after an 8-8 finish last year. There’s reason for that optimism: this offseason, they extended Amari Cooper, added some depth on defense and nailed some draft picks, including nabbing CeeDee Lamb and CB Trevon Diggs with their first two picks. That, and they’ve finally moved on from Jason Garrett after nine full seasons. And while the Eagles were the ones who made the postseason last year, our staff isn’t sold on them outlasting Dallas in the East, with only 10.9% voting for Philly.
Who will win the NFC North?
| TEAM | VOTES |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Vikings | 23 |
 Green Bay Packers | 20 |
 Detroit Lions | 3 |
The Packers have had a bit of a tumultuous offseason, pretty much entirely because, as you may have heard by now, they selected Jordan Love in the first round of the NFL Draft instead of an immediate impact receiver. This led everyone to talk nonstop for months about how the end could be near for Aaron Rodgers’ time in Green Bay. That uncertainty (and that lack of weapons) has led to some doubt about the Packers, though 20 voters still think they’ll repeat as division champs. Still, a few more think the Vikings, who now include recent addition Yannick Ngakoue, will claim the North this year. And look, three votes for the Lions. With its new-look defense and a healthy Matt Stafford throwing to a reliable and productive receiving corps, Detroit could be a potentially fun team to keep an eye on. (If you’re interested, Sheil Kapadia suggests taking a long-shot bet on Kenny Golladay to have the most receiving touchdowns).
Who will win the NFC South?
| TEAM | VOTES |
|---|---|
 New Orleans Saints | 36 |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9 |
 Atlanta Falcons | 1 |
It was an official rule of the spring and summer that every 9.2 seconds, the Bucs had to sign another offensive playmaker to join the Brady Bunch (the most recent: running back Leonard Fournette.) Still, it was not enough to sell our staff on Tampa besting the ever reliable Saints, who’ve won the division three years in a row and finished with a 13-3 record the last two years.
Who will win the NFC West?
| TEAM | VOTES |
|---|---|
 Seattle Seahawks | 22 |
 San Francisco 49ers | 20 |
 Los Angeles Rams | 2 |
 Arizona Cardinals | 2 |
The league’s most intriguing (and arguably best) division is also the only one that received votes for every team. Voters are nearly evenly split between the Seahawks and 49ers, and, like last year, most believe whichever of the two doesn’t win the division will be a wild card. (Last year, the 49ers won the division at 13-3 and the Seahawks were the No. 5 seed at 11-5). The Rams’ shine has worn off since their electric Super Bowl season, but with Sean McVay at the helm and Aaron Donald leading their defense, it’s hard to write them off completely, even with the questions that surround Jared Goff’s ability to rise above a system QB. The Cardinals, who just gave new WR DeAndre Hopkins a whopping two-year, $54.5M contract extension, are going to be one of the most exciting teams to watch in the league, and two voters think they’ll be good enough to rise all the way to the top of this very talented and deep NFC West.
Who will the AFC wild cards be?
Los Angeles ChargersThe Steelers were far and away the most popular pick here, but after that, the voting got tight. It seems that those who think the Patriots will win the AFC East still feel confident that the Bills will nab a playoff spot. And in the South, the Titans have the edge over the Texans. Note the 10 votes for the Raiders, and one vote for the team who picked first in the 2020 draft in April. If the Bengals were to make the playoffs this year, they’d be the first team to go from the No. 1 pick to the playoffs since the Chiefs did it in the 2013 season (see, Bengals fans, now you’ve got your six-year path to the Super Bowl blueprint!)
Who will the NFC wild cards be?
Chicago BearsThe voters may not be all-in on the Bucs winning the South, but they still are having trouble imagining a postseason without Tom Brady in it for the first time in 11 years. As mentioned above, the Seahawks and 49ers voters are mostly assuming the one who doesn’t win the division will be the wild card. And the love for the Lions continues into the postseason, perhaps a result of what some perceive to be a weaker NFC North, and the addition of that third wild card spot.
Who will be the AFC Champions?
| TEAM | VOTES |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 32 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 12 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 2 |
Before the Chiefs this year, the AFC had been won by the same three quarterbacks dating all the way back to 2003 (with the exception of Joe Flacco in 2013): Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. The point: great quarterbacks win consistently, and Patrick Mahomes is the best there is. We may already be on our way to a new version of that consistent AFC domination, this time from Mahomes and Lamar Jackson over the next 15 years.
Who will be the NFC Champions?
| TEAM | VOTES |
|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | 18 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 7 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 5 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4 |
| Detroit Lions | 1 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 1 |
Who will win the Super Bowl?
| TEAM | VOTES |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 23 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 9 |
| New Orleans Saints | 6 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 3 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 1 |
Another way to interpret this: Kansas City Chiefs: 23, any of the six other talented NFL teams in this table: 23. The obvious must be stated: Repeating championships is very difficult, particularly in football. And yet, if any team can do it, it’d be the Chiefs, who are arguably even better than they were last year, when they were dealing with an injured Patrick Mahomes.
Which team will be a pleasant surprise?
Carolina PanthersThe thing about preseason predictions, particularly during a preseason-less pandemic, is we don’t really know anything about these teams yet, which means that pretty much everyone could be the surprise team, as reflected in these votes. The Browns didn’t have the dizzying hype they had last season, and they have new coach Kevin Stefanski in charge, so some think they’ll finally take a step forward. Others are high on potential franchise savior Joe Burrow, while one voter has faith in Drew Lock’s Broncos (though that vote was before the Von Miller injury) and another is optimistic about the Tyrod Taylor/Justin Herbert experiment in L.A. So basically: Could be anyone!
Who'll be the biggest disappointment?
Well, everyone, hope you’re ready to be let down, because our staff has identified half the league as candidates here, with the ultra-hyped Bucs coming in first. Respect for the one voter who put the Jets — even when expectations are at their lowest (Sheil Kapadia ranked them at No. 30 in his preseason power rankings) there’s still always room for more disappointment.
Who will win NFL MVP?
| PLAYER | VOTES |
|---|---|
 Patrick Mahomes | 34 |
 Dak Prescott | 6 |
 Russell Wilson | 3 |
 Lamar Jackson | 2 |
 Drew Brees | 1 |
It was a bit surprising to see so few votes for reigning MVP Lamar Jackson here, but then again, in the last 20 years only Peyton Manning has won MVP in back-to-back years (2008, ’09). Most assume Mahomes, if he stays healthy, will nab his second in three years. Another note: Somehow only three votes for Russell Wilson, who has carried his team year after year, and whose Seahawks received quite a few votes above to win the NFC.
Who'll be Defensive Player of the Year?
Nick Bosa
Aaron Donald
T.J. Watt
Tre'Davious White
Joey Bosa
Chandler Jones
Khalil Mack
Myles Garrett
Cam Jordan
Danielle Hunter
Jadeveon Clowney
Jamal Adams
Minkah FitzpatrickA victory for little brothers everywhere: both Nick Bosa and T.J. Watt bested their respective brothers, Joey and J.J., in our voting. And it’s OK to think pretty much every year is the year Aaron Donald will win his third DPOY award.
Who'll be Offensive Rookie of the Year?
| PLAYER | VOTES |
|---|---|
 Joe Burrow | 24 |
 Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 8 |
 Henry Ruggs | 4 |
 J.K. Dobbins | 3 |
 Jerry Jeudy | 2 |
 Tua Tagovailoa | 2 |
 A.J. Dillon | 1 |
 CeeDee Lamb | 1 |
 Justin Herbert | 1 |
Burrow got a lot of love, as expected, but there’s a ton of rookie receiving talent this year, perhaps paving the way for the award to go to a WR for the first time since Odell Beckham Jr. won it in 2014.
Who'll win Defensive Rookie of the Year?
| PLAYER | VOTES |
|---|---|
 Chase Young | 35 |
 Isaiah Simmons | 6 |
 Jeff Okudah | 2 |
 Patrick Queen | 2 |
 Javon Kinlaw | 1 |
There’s not much silver lining when it comes to the Washington Football Team and their bleak outlook for the 2020 season (Sheil Kapadia ranked them No. 31 out of 32 teams and is predicting a 4-12 record), but their No. 2 pick does provide at least a little bit of light, and may very well be one of the only reasons to tune into their games this season.
Who will win Coach of the Year?
| COACH | TEAM | VOTES |
|---|---|---|
| Frank Reich | Indianapolis Colts | 6 |
| Mike McCarthy | Dallas Cowboys | 6 |
| Bill Belichick | New England Patriots | 5 |
| Sean McDermott | Buffalo Bills | 5 |
| Bruce Arians | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4 |
| Andy Reid | Kansas City Chiefs | 3 |
| Kevin Stefanski |  Cleveland Browns | 3 |
| Sean Payton | New Orleans Saints | 3 |
| Pete Carroll | Seattle Seahawks | 3 |
| Brian Flores | Miami Dolphins | 1 |
| John Harbaugh | Baltimore Ravens | 1 |
| Jon Gruden |  Las Vegas Raiders | 1 |
| Kliff Kingsbury | Arizona Cardinals | 1 |
| Kyle Shanahan | San Francisco 49ers | 1 |
| Matt Patricia | Detroit Lions | 1 |
| Mike Tomlin | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1 |
| Zac Taylor |  Cincinnati Bengals | 1 |
This is another category with wide variance, ranging from the oldest coach in the league, Pete Carroll (68), to two of the youngest, Zac Taylor (37) and Kevin Stefanski (38). It includes the longest-tenured NFL coach (Bill Belichick) and one in his first year as an NFL head coach (Stefanski). Notably missing from this list without a single vote: the guy everyone’s been trying to hire replicas of, Sean McVay.
Who will be the year's breakout player?
| PLAYER | POSITION | VOTES |
|---|---|---|
 Kyler Murray | QB | 12 |
 Drew Lock | QB | 4 |
 Devin Singletary | RB | 3 |
 Brian Burns | DE | 2 |
 Calvin Ridley | WR | 2 |
 N'Keal Harry | WR | 2 |
 T.J. Hockenson | TE | 2 |
 A.J. Brown | WR | 1 |
 Baker Mayfield | QB | 1 |
 Chris Godwin | WR | 1 |
 Devin Bush | LB | 1 |
 Devin White | LB | 1 |
 DK Metcalf | WR | 1 |
| Joe Burrow | QB | 1 |
 Josh Allen | QB | 1 |
 Marquise Brown | WR | 1 |
 Mecole Hardman | WR | 1 |
 Michael Gallup | WR | 1 |
 Miles Sanders | RB | 1 |
 OJ Howard | TE | 1 |
 Preston Williams | WR | 1 |
 Ronald Jones | RB | 1 |
 Stefon Diggs | WR | 1 |
 Teddy Bridgewater | QB | 1 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | 1 |
 Van Jefferson | WR | 1 |
Murray hit his stride during the second half of his rookie season, and the fact that he now has DeAndre Hopkins to throw to makes him a logical selection here. The list also contains three offensive members of the Bucs, another indication of the power of the Brady Effect on these predictions.
Who'll be Comeback Player of the Year?
| PLAYER | VOTES |
|---|---|
 Cam Newton | 16 |
 Ben Roethlisberger | 10 |
 Alex Smith | 6 |
 Rob Gronkowski | 6 |
 A.J. Green | 2 |
 Matt Stafford | 2 |
 Philip Rivers | 2 |
 J.J. Watt | 1 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 1 |
Who will be the first coach to be fired?
| COACH | TEAM | VOTES |
|---|---|---|
| Doug Marrone |  Jacksonville Jaguars | 16 |
| Adam Gase |  New York Jets | 15 |
| Matt Patricia | Detroit Lions | 7 |
| Dan Quinn | Atlanta Falcons | 6 |
| Vic Fangio |  Denver Broncos | 1 |
| Jack Del Rio (defensive coordinator) |  Washington Football Team | 1 |
Predictions may mean nothing, but these particular predictions brought you votes for Matt Patricia as both Coach of the Year and first coach fired. What a wild ride. The most popular picks here, though, are Adam Gase, whose short tenure with the Jets has been nothing but rocky, and Doug Marrone, who’s coaching a team devoid of talent and seemingly on a straight path to the No. 1 pick. One voter actually went with an assistant coach here — Jack Del Rio, who has a particular fondness for controversial tweets.
Who will be the No. 1 pick in the draft?
| PLAYER | TEAM | VOTES |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence |  Clemson | 46 |
College football is in a very uncertain and unusual place, but Lawrence has been a sure thing as the No. 1 pick in this draft since he took over at Clemson in 2018.
Will the NFL season finish on time?
| ANSWER | VOTES |
|---|---|
| Yes | 34 |
| No, there will be a delay due to COVID-19 | 12 |
The NFL has stayed on schedule so far, and in early August, said they’re “laser focused” on playing the Super Bowl on Feb. 7 as planned. Unlike the NBA and NHL, the NFL does not have a bubble, and MLB, which also does not have a bubble, has seen breakouts this summer. But the NFL’s results so far have been promising: The league released an update this week that said from Aug. 30-Sept. 5, 44,510 tests were administered to a total of 8,349 players and team personnel, with one new confirmed positive test among players and seven new confirmed positives among other personnel.
Will the Super Bowl have fans at it?
| ANSWER | VOTES |
|---|---|
| Yes, at reduced capacity | 36 |
| No, they will play in front of an empty stadium | 7 |
| Yes, at full capacity | 2 |
| There will not be a Super Bowl | 1 |
There are only a handful of teams opening their stadiums to fans in Week 1, and any that are will be operating at a reduced capacity. After the spring and summer we’ve had, it’s almost unfathomable to envision a situation where the Super Bowl will be played in front of a full stadium a mere five months from now. But if things go well over the first few weeks, the league could be on the path to play in front of at least some fans this February.