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By Sheil Kapadia Jul 25, 2019
The NFC has had 12 different representatives make the Super Bowl since the turn of the century. The only four teams that have been left out during that 19-year span are the Cowboys, Lions, Vikings and Washington.
Once again in 2019, the conference feels wide open. By my count, 11 teams can look ahead to Feb. 2, 2020, and see themselves potentially vying for the Lombardi Trophy in Miami (some might need to squint a little harder than others). The only teams that are cross-offs from the get-go are the Giants, Lions, Bucs, Cardinals and Washington. If one of those five ends up surprising and going all the way, we’ll offer up a lifetime subscription to The Athletic to members of their fan base (note: I am not qualified to follow through on that, but I will grant you permission to yell at me on Twitter).
With training camps underway, now seems like a good time to take stock of the contenders. We’ll do the NFC here and the AFC in a future installment. Here’s the case for each of the NFC 11, with teams broken up into three categories.
Numbers are courtesy of Sportradar unless otherwise indicated. “Efficiency” refers to the DVOA metric from Football Outsiders. The favorites
Los Angeles Rams — The Patriots bounced back from a Super Bowl loss two years ago to win it all last season. Can the Rams do the same? The offense laid an egg in the Super Bowl, but Los Angeles has averaged an NFL-best 31.4 points per game over the last two seasons, and its 24 regular-season wins over that span are tied for first. The Rams will be breaking in two new starters on the offensive line, but concerns about the impact from Todd Gurley’s health might be overblown. Football Outsiders tracks a metric called adjusted line yards to measure how much an offensive line’s blocking is responsible for a team’s rushing success. The Rams’ 5.49 adjusted line yards number last season was the highest ever recorded in Football Outsiders’ database (going back to 1996). In other words, the scheme and blocking can do a lot of the work in the run game. Combine that with the fact Los Angeles drafted Darrell Henderson in the third round, and the offense should be fine. Defensively, the Rams finished 18th in efficiency last season. Their most glaring issue was allowing big plays through the air; 10.28 percent of opponents’ pass plays resulted in explosive completions (20 yards or more). That ranked 29th in the NFL. The defense doesn’t have to be great for the Rams to get back to the Super Bowl. It just has to hover around mediocre. With Wade Phillips running the show, that seems extremely doable.
Keep an eye on … the Rams’ injuries. They’re one of only two teams that have finished each of the past two seasons in the top five in adjusted games lost, a metric that measures which teams are most and least hurt by injuries. Good overall health has been a factor in their success the past two seasons. If the Rams see some regression with their injury luck, the path to Miami will get more difficult.
New Orleans Saints — In what’s become an annual summer tradition, many are questioning whether this will be the year that 40-year-old Drew Brees shows signs of aging. Were there some ugly games for the Saints’ offense down the stretch last season? Sure. But overall, Brees set career highs in adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) and completion percentage last season. The Saints finished fourth in offensive efficiency, third in passing efficiency and produced an explosive play on 10.95 percent of their dropbacks (fourth best). They lost Max Unger at center but gave themselves solid options to replace him with free agent Nick Easton and rookie Erik McCoy. New Orleans should still boast one of the best offensive lines in football to go along with elite playmakers Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. Like the Rams, the defense has to just be mediocre, not great. Last season, the Saints finished 11th in defensive efficiency. Even if that slips a bit, the offense is good enough to make them a contender.
Keep an eye on … cornerback Eli Apple. Per the Football Outsiders Almanac, in the 10 games that Apple started after the in-season trade with the Giants, the Saints’ defense ranked sixth league-wide against the pass.
Philadelphia Eagles — On paper they have one of the deepest, most talented rosters in the NFL. Carson Wentz could play another 10 years and not have a group of pass-catchers around him that’s as good as this year’s version (Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, Nelson Agholor, Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert). There’s always the caveat that Wentz has to prove he can stay healthy. But if he’s able to stay on the field, given the talent and continuity on the offensive line and Doug Pederson’s aggressive mindset, this should be a top-five offense. Defensively, the pass rush is counting on newcomer Malik Jackson and third-year player Derek Barnett to fill the voids left by Michael Bennett and Chris Long. While the secondary has depth, defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz needs to find the right fits — specifically at cornerback. Like the other two teams in this tier, the Eagles don’t need to field an elite defense to get to Miami. They just need to be good enough. Pederson did a brilliant job during the Eagles’ Super Bowl run with Nick Foles two years ago and kept the team together despite an injury-ravaged season last year that ended in the divisional round. The Eagles have the third-easiest schedule in the NFL, according to Sharp Football Stats, and the pieces are in place for a deep playoff run.
Keep an eye on … the Eagles’ injuries. They finished 31st in adjusted games lostlast year before making changes to their medical staff in the offseason. An improvement in health and better injury luck will be key for them to get back to the Super Bowl. Don’t count ’em out
Minnesota Vikings — They are the first team on this list with a defensive identity. The Vikings brought back linebacker Anthony Barr to preserve the core of a defense that finished fourth in efficiency and second in adjusted sack rate last season. With Mike Zimmer running the show, there are very few question marks on that side of the ball. The offense, however, is a different story. Best-case scenario: The addition of Gary Kubiak as an offensive adviser proves to be exactly what Kirk Cousins needs at this point in his career. The additions of guard Josh Kline and draft pick Garrett Bradbury stabilize the offensive line. And the Vikings finish atop the NFC North. Worst-case scenario: There are too many cooks in the kitchen. Offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski has a tough time getting comfortable with Kubiak looking over his shoulder and Zimmer yelling at him to run the ball more as Minnesota again misses out on the playoffs.
Keep an eye on … the Vikings’ offensive line. Per the Football Outsiders Almanac, Minnesota suffered 28 percent more blown blocks than any other offensive line last year. The Vikings could have let Barr walk and gone after another veteran free agent like guard Rodger Saffold. Instead, they signed Kline and used three draft picks on offensive linemen. Whether that was enough of a remedy will go a long way in determining their fate this season.
Chicago Bears — I can picture it now. Super Bowl media night in Miami, and Matt Nagy steps up to the podium. Just as reporters get ready to fire away, he announces, “I will only be answering questions about the double doink by Cody Parkey. If you want to discuss any other topics, please contact other members of my staff.” Nagy’s decision to seemingly publicly obsess over the playoff miss this spring has been fascinating. And while the Bears have more pressing issues, they still don’t have an answer to their kicker question. Chicago boasted the best defense in the NFL last season, but regression is to be expected. They replace defensive coordinator Vic Fangio with Chuck Pagano and safety Adrian Amos with Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. The Bears have the NFL’s fifth-toughest schedule, and they were the third-healthiest team in the league last season. What can offset potential regression in some key areas? Mitch Trubisky and the offense making a leap. The Bears ranked 20th in offensive efficiency last season and totaled just 15 points in their home playoff loss in the wild card round. If you believe Trubisky has a high ceiling and that this can be a top-10 offense, then the Bears are contenders. If not, they might miss out on the postseason altogether.
Keep an eye on … the Bears’ turnover margin. They produced an interception on 14.8 percent of their opponents’ drives last season. That was the top mark in the NFL and the top mark for any team in the past five seasons. Yes, this is another area in which they might have to compensate for potential regression.
Dallas Cowboys — They finished 10-6, but advanced statistics suggest they weren’t quite as good as that record might indicate. The Cowboys ranked 21st in overall DVOA and 14th in scoring margin. The Cowboys had the youngest defense in the NFL and finished ninth in efficiency. If the young players improve, it’s reasonable to expect them to be even better in 2019. The other side of the ball comes with more question marks. Dallas finished 24th in offensive efficiency last year. Dak Prescott took sacks on 9.6 percent of his dropbacks, which was sixth-worst among starters. The Cowboys produced explosive completions (20 yards or more) on just 6.69 percent of their passing plays; that ranked 31st, ahead of only the Cardinals. Dallas is counting on first-time offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to add some creativity and pizzaz to its scheme. There could be an adjustment period, but if the offense starts to find its identity late in the season, and the defense can take another step forward, the Cowboys have the talent on their roster to make a run.
Keep an eye on … their defensive line. The Cowboys ranked 27th in adjusted sack rate last year and need to find more help for DeMarcus Lawrence. They traded for Robert Quinn and drafted Trysten Hill in the second round. Dallas needs one of those players (or someone else) to provide meaningful pass-rush snaps.
Green Bay Packers — Every year I get burned by picking them to go further than they do, and I’m not about to quit that habit in 2019. The case for the Packers is simple. Even with all the issues they had last year (Aaron Rodgers’ injury, his fractured relationship with Mike McCarthy, a lack of depth at wide receiver), they still finished seventh in offensive efficiency. While Matt LaFleur is a relative unknown, a slight improvement could put Green Bay into the league’s top five offenses. Defensively, the idea this offseason was obvious: load up in free agency and try to capitalize on what’s left of Rodgers’ window. The Packers signed Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith up front and added Amos at safety. Green Bay also spent first-round picks on defensive lineman Rashan Gary and defensive back Darnell Savage. They have a lot of new faces, but it’s entirely feasible that they leap to at least mediocre on that side of the ball.
Keep an eye on … the health of the defensive players. The Packers had the third-most injured defense in the NFL last season. Avoiding that high injury rate could go a long way toward Mike Pettine’s group producing better results in 2019. So you’re telling me there’s a chance
Atlanta Falcons — A strong case could be made that they deserve to be one tier up. Matt Ryan finished last year fifth in adjusted net yards per attempt, and the Falcons were eighth in offensive efficiency. That, of course, wasn’t enough to save Steve Sarkisian’s job. In fact, Dan Quinn parted ways with all three of his coordinators. The Falcons invested in the offensive line both in free agency and the draft, and the offense is set up to once again be a top-10 unit. The defense was terrible (31st overall) and decimated by injuries, but there’s still plenty of talent on that side of the ball. It’s not difficult to envision them competing for first place in the NFC South and making a playoff run.
Keep an eye on … Dan Quinn’s aggressiveness (or lack thereof). Football Outsiders ranks coaches based on fourth-down decision-making, and Quinn ranked 24th last season. The Falcons need every edge they can get, and more analytically sound in-game decision-making would certainly help.
Carolina Panthers — The Panthers are +2500 to come out of the NFC, according to The Action Network. Only five teams in the conference have worse odds. Allow me to make the case for them as a serious contender. Last year, Cam Newton was dealing with a shoulder injury so bad that just 8.28 percent of his pass attempts traveled 20 yards or more downfield; that ranked 32nd among qualifying quarterbacks. The offensive line was banged up, they were breaking in young receivers, and defenses knew Carolina couldn’t stretch the field. Yet even with all that, the Panthers still finished 11th in offensive efficiency. This offseason, they invested in the offensive line by signing center Matt Paradis and drafting tackle Greg Little in the second round. The defensive front seven has depth and upside with the additions of rookie Brian Burns, along with veterans Gerald McCoy and Bruce Irvin. Obviously, everything depends on Newton’s shoulder. They need their wide receivers to develop. And they have some questions in the secondary. But the upside here is a Super Bowl contender.
Keep an eye on … Newton’s shoulder (not going to make this one complicated). How the Panthers manage him in the weeks ahead and how he looks throwing the ball downfield is one of the biggest storylines league-wide. Newton did not complete a pass (0-for-7) that traveled at least 25 air yards in the last six games, according to Football Outsiders. If he’s operating at full strength, this offense will be difficult to game plan for. If he’s not, they’re probably looking at a repeat of last season.
Seattle Seahawks — Their playoff loss to the Cowboys left a bad taste in a lot of people’s mouths, but stepping back and looking at the big picture, the Seahawks’ offense did a lot of things well last season. They averaged 26.8 points per game. That was tied for sixth overall, and only the Saints and Rams averaged more in the NFC. Seattle was ninth in offensive efficiency and sixth in passing efficiency. They used play-action at the second-highest rate in the league, and Russell Wilson led the NFL in DVOA on deep passes. Yet there continues to be a feeling that they should do more of what they do well in the passing game to reach full capacity on offense. The Seahawks were the only team in the NFL to run the ball on more than 50 percent of their snaps last year. Is that going to continue even now that Wilson is making $35 million per year? Given the Frank Clark trade and Jarran Reed’s suspension, Pete Carroll will have his work cut out for him on the defensive side of the ball. At some point, if it looks like that group just doesn’t have the talent to perform above league average, how much will Carroll be willing to open up the offense to give the Seahawks their best chance at a successful season? The answer to that question could determine how far Seattle goes in 2019. On paper, this is far from a Super Bowl roster. They are thin at receiver, don’t have a lot of pass rush and are unproven in the secondary. But when looking at coach/QB combos, few teams have a leg up on Carroll/Wilson. They’ve won nine games or more every season since Wilson was drafted and have made the postseason in six of those seven years.
Keep an eye on … the Seahawks’ approach on first down. They ran the ball 50 percent of the time on first down last year, the most of any team in the league. And the results were not pretty. Seattle ranked 23rd in first-down DVOA. Being less predictable on first downs and taking some shots deep could go a long way in giving their offense a bump.
San Francisco 49ers — I flip-flopped roughly 47 times on whether to include them on this list and ultimately decided to go with it. Here’s the case, starting with the offense. Kyle Shanahan can scheme up explosive plays. The 49ers saw 10.52 percent of their pass plays result in explosive completions (20 yards or more) last season — good enough for sixth-best in the league. Keep in mind that was with C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens starting 13 games. The 49ers are hoping to get a healthy Jimmy Garoppolo back and are counting on contributions from newcomers around him like running back Tevin Coleman and rookie WR Deebo Samuel. Defensively, they invested heavily in the front seven by trading for Dee Ford, signing Kwon Alexander and drafting Nick Bosa. The 49ers are likely to see improvement in turnover margin where they finished 32nd last year (just two interceptions all season for the defense), and they were the fourth-most injured team. If they can get a healthier season at key positions and benefit from some turnover luck, maybe San Francisco can compete for first place in the NFC West. Is that the likeliest outcome? No. But it’s also not out of the realm of possibility.
Keep an eye on … how often Garoppolo is on the ground. Per Football Outsiders, 49ers quarterbacks were sacked or hit on 21.6 percent of their pass plays last season. Only the Houston Texans had a worse mark.