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By Jon Machota, Bob Sturm and more Mar 9, 2021
Dak Prescott got what he wanted Monday — a contract (four years, $160 million) with the Dallas Cowboys that makes him the second-highest-paid quarterback in the NFL behind Patrick Mahomes and eligible for another deal when he turns 31. Why didn’t that happen earlier? The Athletic’s Bob Sturm wrote that Jerry Jones finally relented — the Cowboys finally realized this situation was not going to fix itself.
Did Dallas pay too much? Does a healthy Dak Prescott (and less drama) mean the Cowboys are the NFC East favorites?
The Athletic’s Jon Machota, Ben Standig, Zach Berman, Amy Trask and Sturm answered these questions and more after the signing.
Did the Cowboys pay too much, too little or just the right amount?
Machota: You can make the case that most teams overpay their franchise quarterbacks. It’s understandable if some think the Cowboys did here. But Prescott’s final numbers were in the neighborhood of what was expected all along. If you have a franchise quarterback that you think is elite, like the Cowboys do with Prescott, this is the price of doing business. The Ravens, Bills and Browns will likely be doing the same in the near future. The Cowboys were better off paying what they did rather than not having Prescott a year from now and saving some money. He has improved throughout his career and his best football is probably still ahead of him. If that ends up being true, not many will be talking about how the Cowboys overpaid four years from now.
Sturm: It simply comes down to the “going rate” and that is determined 100 percent on when the deal is inked. Sign the deal in January of 2019 when he was first eligible and you probably are in at 4/110 or so. Wait one more year and it becomes 4/140. Wait until this deadline and it is now 4/160 and by July it might be even more. Josh Allen is about to come in at or above this number and that says nothing about the new deal Aaron Rodgers is going to receive before we play ball. The QB1 has all of the leverage and it shows once again. You either pass him on to the rest of the league or you pay what the house on the ocean costs. “Fair price” has very little to do with it.
Standig: There are overpays at some positions, but that’s a higher bar at the game’s most important position. Without a strong QB, teams face long odds of contending. In Prescott, Dallas has a real one though a player coming off a serious ankle injury. Clearly, the Cowboys believe Prescott will make a full recovery and keep the team in the hunt.
Berman: If a team has conviction in a quarterback, then there is no such thing as paying too much. The Cowboys weren’t going to get a discount, and the prices for the next quarterbacks to sign big extensions such as Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen won’t deflate. So this is what the market bears for a franchise quarterback. The problem comes when the team misses on the evaluation, the player’s development stagnates or he’s injured. Then a franchise is left like the Eagles or Rams, moving on from a quarterback who signed a nine-figure contract and absorbing a massive salary-cap hit. The evaluation and continued development is more relevant than the price.
Trask: The answer to this is subjective and ultimately depends on a number of factors, including the organization’s view of his short- and long-term capabilities, how “close” the team believes it is to “winning it all,” how many other “pieces” the team believes it needs, and more. An obvious issue is Dak’s recovery from the injury he suffered during the 2020 season. Presumably, Dallas looked into this extensively and feels confident that this will not be an issue going forward. Although teams often purchase injury insurance when making substantial contractual commitments to players (says the woman who on a number of occasions ran so fast to her phone to secure such coverage after the organization for which she worked made a substantial contractual commitment that Al Davis was impressed with her speed), as a general rule such coverage contains exclusions for prior injury.
Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott (Tim Heitman / USA Today)
Are the Cowboys and a healthy Dak Prescott favorites in the NFC East?
Machota: Unless Washington somehow finds a way to get Deshaun Watson, the Cowboys will be the favorites in the division come Week 1. Dallas has the best quarterback and the best offense of the four teams. The Cowboys’ defense has several holes, but don’t be surprised if that side of the ball isn’t improved just because of the coaching staff changes this offseason. If the Cowboys draft well and have a little better luck in the injury department, they should win the NFC East.
Sturm: Much depends on where Washington goes at the QB1 position, but I have no doubt that Dallas is in an exceptional position moving forward to do very well if they can now take these resources and build in 3-5 new defensive pieces from the draft and free agency. I believe they are on a path where that seems possible now and Monday was the key. They could not tie up everything on a $38 million tag, but now that his 2021 number is under $23 million (we believe), that represents the ability to add veterans as well as picks.
Standig: Yes. Washington won the division last year at 7-9. While there’s reason for optimism thanks to the likes of Chase Young, Terry McLaurin and Daron Payne, the QB conundrum remains. We’ll see how the Giants address their issues this offseason, but the Eagles are clearly starting over. The Cowboys aren’t without flaws, but they have the best quarterback in the division assuming Prescott is ready for Week 1. That’s a good start.
Berman: That’s a reasonable label, although it speaks more to the NFC East than the Cowboys. The defense has issues that must be addressed, and that cannot be glossed over. But this is a division of flawed rosters. Perhaps Washington makes a play for a top quarterback and that changes the conversation. As of March 9, I’d make the Cowboys the favorites.
Trask: I certainly think Dallas can contend for the division, as I believe it is up for grabs. I don’t believe there is a favorite, whether Dallas or otherwise.
Jaylon Smith (54) and the Cowboys defense (Jerome Miron / USA Today)
Dak is locked up, but the defense is still a mess in Dallas, right?
Machota: Yes. They need help on all three levels, particularly at cornerback, free safety, defensive tackle and linebacker. They probably should spend most of their free agency dollars and most of their draft picks on that side of the ball. The addition of Dan Quinn as defensive coordinator should help immediately. Not only will they have a more normal offseason to get everyone on the same page, but Quinn’s Cover-3 scheme should be a better fit for most of the personnel already on the roster.
Sturm: Yes. They have some work to do, but I really believe with the 10th pick to probably grab yet another high-end corner to pair with Diggs, they can improve DT after that with some levels of ease. A safety in this free-agent class is worth pursuing now and possibly two. The linebacker position will be interesting to see if Quinn comes back with another year of Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch as the sole solutions. This will be interesting for the next 60 days of defensive improvement.
Standig: Absolutely. With the Prescott drama over, Dallas can use its top draft selections on needed secondary and defensive line help.
Berman: The defense must be addressed. Hiring Dan Quinn was a start, but there are also personnel issues. The pass coverage and pass rush require upgrades. It’s hard to be considered a contender without improving those areas. They could be in position to land Patrick Surtain II or Caleb Farley in the first round.
Trask: Dallas gave up an average of 29.6 points per game (fifth-worst in the league) and an average of 158.8 yards rushing per game (second-worst in the league). And of course, everything works together — the more points a team gives up, the more points a team has to score to win — it’s math. So yes, work needs to be done.
After the four-year deal is up, what’s next for Prescott and the Cowboys?
Machota: They’re hoping Prescott plays so well over the next three seasons that he’ll already be into another new deal. If it doesn’t look like it’s heading in that direction, they have the next few drafts to find another quarterback. That’s a long way away, though. Four years ago, Prescott was coming off an Offensive Rookie of the Year season, guiding the Cowboys to a 13-3 finish and the divisional round of the playoffs after Tony Romo went down in the preseason. I mean, I guess if Prescott isn’t still the guy four years from now, the Cowboys could be in position to make a run at a 47-year-old Tom Brady.
Sturm: I cannot begin to imagine what 2025 will look like for the Dallas Cowboys, but I will tell you this — and this is vital. I predict by 2025, the cap will be at or above $300 million per team and therefore the new top contract at the position could certainly have eclipsed $50 million a year well before then. Maybe $60 million per year. If they have not been on a few deep playoff runs by then, there is a chance it will be on to the next one. Of course, this is the NFL, so the holdovers from the 2020 season on this roster to the 2025 season will be counted on one hand. The NFL truly is “Not For Long.”
Standig: Maybe just focus on this year and the three after. In the NFL, that’s a lifetime. But, if the Cowboys don’t win a title or sniff a shot in that stretch, grab some popcorn, find a comfortable seat and enjoy the show.
Berman: They should hope he’s still the quarterback and he’s already negotiated a contract extension. Figuring out how much to pay Prescott on his next deal should be a question the Cowboys invite. I can tell you from covering the Eagles that when Carson Wentz signed his contract in June 2019, the question of what’s next for Wentz and the Eagles in four years would never have been answered that they were two years past trading him. Paying a top quarterback is a luxury. Unloading an expensive quarterback is a problem.
Trask: Four years? Four years is forever in the NFL. Case in point: Tampa Bay was 5-11 and in last place in the NFC South four years ago.
