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By Jon Machota and Bob Sturm 3h ago
It’s been a while since we’ve had a Cowboys conversation. And although Dallas hasn’t done anything to rival the New England Patriots over the last two weeks, there have been enough moves to have a discussion about how the roster is changing. Jon Machota and Bob Sturm did just that this week.
Here’s a transcript of our thoughts on Cowboys free agency and how it might impact what happens in next month’s draft.
Machota: I don’t think it’s a big surprise how things have gone so far. This is basically what we have come to expect from the Cowboys this time of year in free agency. They were never going to make a huge splash. But out of the guys they have signed, Keanu Neal has been the most impressive. I know there’s been a lot of talk about him playing weakside linebacker, but he’s a guy who can play safety, who I think is a better player than Ha Ha Clinton-Dix or George Iloka, which is how they have tried to address safety in free agency the last two years. And just the fact that they’re still bringing in safeties like Malik Hooker, Damontae Kazee and Jayron Kearse, who they added Wednesday night on a one-year deal, makes me think Dan Quinn is putting a little more value on the position than we’ve seen in previous years around here. And maybe that also means they’ll be putting a little higher value on safety in this year’s draft.
Sturm: First of all, Keanu Neal is absolutely their best free-agency signing because I don’t even know who is second. He’s the one guy who will be a starter, and he can play. I think a lot of people are making that connection between Clinton-Dix, Iloka and Neal, but I don’t know that it fits because those guys, and I think my Twitter feed would confirm this, the day they were brought in, I was suspicious that they would even make the team. They seemed like complete fliers who were past their prime and not reasonable starters in the NFL. Neal is a starter in the NFL. He’s 26 on opening day. And the only reason the price tags and the contracts are similar is the football economy. That’s really a buyer’s opportunity right now. There’s a lot of guys who probably deserve multiyear deals and twice the money who are settling for very, very fringe one-year deals, and they’re doing it because they want to get back to the market next year. And, of course, the teams are doing it because nobody has any cap room. I think Neal is a legit signing. And I don’t want to get carried away, but I would just say this to pull the curtain back a little bit, recently we were both asked to work on a project for the best and worst free-agent signings of the last decade, and I could only come up with a list of one for best signing. I don’t even know who the other candidates would be besides Brandon Carr in 2012. That is shocking to me that the richest franchise in sports, over 10 years, doesn’t really have a second free-agent signing of substance. It would not take Keanu Neal much to work his way onto the medal stand, at least. Even if we’re far from having that discussion, I think this does make the defense better, but they still have a ways to go.
Machota: Let’s move to the defensive line because news surfaced on Wednesday that Aldon Smith will not be returning for a second season in Dallas. It’s not a huge surprise to me from things I’ve heard and just the way his production dropped off throughout last season. They also recently signed Tarell Basham. Let’s not act like the defensive end position is set with them. I think they have a top four right now with DeMarcus Lawrence, Randy Gregory, Basham and Dorance Armstrong. And you can throw Bradlee Anae in there at No. 5. But I don’t think anything they’ve done takes them out of drafting an edge rusher relatively early. I don’t think they do it with the 10th overall pick, just because I don’t know there’s a defensive end worthy of the 10th overall pick. I thought the Basham signing was interesting. He wasn’t a guy I really had on my radar, but I’m interested to see what he can do working as maybe the No. 3 rusher behind Lawrence and Gregory. Then the two defensive tackles they signed, Carlos Watkins and Brent Urban, that to me is just adding veteran guys that aren’t completely filling out any roster holes. They’ll still draft a defensive tackle high if there’s someone there they really like. It seems like with that group they’ve added up front, they should at the very least be better against the run. I think at the very worst, even if you’re not getting much pass rush, they should at least be better stopping the run this season.
Brent Urban (Benny Sieu / USA Today)
Sturm: I think Brent Urban, in particular, is excellent against the run in a small amount of usage. You don’t want to play him a ton of snaps, but 20-25 snaps, first, second down, goal line. He’s got a really big frame, and I think he’s useful. But just as a general rule, I would say that they’ve done this so many years in a row that we kind of know what they’re doing. They fill these holes with stopgap, minimal salary, minimal contracts, and they do that so they don’t get tempted to go reaching in the draft. I think on its own, it’s not the worst strategy ever. You’re not desperate when your number is up on the draft and then end up doing something really dumb for a short-term plug. They get these guys who are near the age of 30 who don’t really have a market for them, and they are somewhere between an important role or not even making the team. I think we’re learning that more and more. A lot of these guys don’t even make Week 1. But in this case, I think all of them are roster players. I think Basham is interesting, only because a lot of us liked him in the 2017 draft. He was very intriguing. But I don’t think with the Colts or the Jets he was able to really reach that expectation level. I think in both cases his playing time diminished, his role diminished and the success level just wasn’t where it needed to be. But he’s a guy with tools and he’s a guy with flashes. I think the key to all of it, though, is probably that they wanted to find a spot where Randy Gregory is basically a full-time defensive end in 2021. And from there they can make an educated decision on his next contract, if there is one. I don’t think that you’re wrong at all that they might try to draft a guy on Day 2 that can help them on the edge, but I do think the resistance to Aldon Smith is probably twofold. Part of it is his running out of gas pretty early last season, which I think is kind of predictable for a guy who has been out of the league for five years. But I also think it’s that Randy Gregory is darn near 30, his rookie contract is finally about to expire — let’s actually find out what he’s capable of now that it looks like a lot of his issues are behind him.
Machota: I just feel like you always have to have some young edge rushers on your roster, and they haven’t drafted any edge rushers in the first few rounds since Taco Charlton in 2017. Dorance Armstrong’s contract is up at the end of the season. Gregory only has one year left. I haven’t studied all of the elite edge rushers in this draft, but the names like Kwity Paye and Gregory Rousseau don’t make a lot of sense at No. 10. They would have to move back for either of those players to make sense with their first pick. If they took either of them at 10 it would almost be like Taco Charlton all over again where they’re forcing something, and I don’t think that would be a wise move. So I guess what I’m saying is that I don’t necessarily think they’ll take an edge rusher in the first round, but I don’t think there’s much on the depth chart that should prevent them from taking one in the second or third round.
Sturm: I think you’re right. I think this is a very poor edge-rusher year. And I think that means the pick at 10 is probably not sensible. But the picks thereafter — four picks in the top 99 — I do think you can probably get what you might consider an edge equivalent to Neville Gallimore at defensive tackle. You might find that guy in Round 3 this year. It’s not a great group. But I do think from what I’ve seen, there are definitely useful rotational guys who might grow into something better. I think if you have Gregory and Lawrence on the edge, there’s nothing wrong with taking a guy who might require a small, part-time/redshirt first year in the league before he’s ready to take on more in years to come. The issue that does give me pause is Atlanta constantly went after edges under Dan Quinn and really having a hard time in the draft finding somebody who is worth their weight in gold. Whether it’s Anae or somebody we don’t even know about, they probably need to hit on somebody with more than the special teams component that Armstrong brings you. They need somebody with twitch out there who can make some plays.
Patrick Surtain (Gary Cosby Jr / The Tuscaloosa News via USA Today)
Machota: The last subject I wanted to touch on is cornerback. I don’t know how you feel about Patrick Surtain II, but I’ve always been a fan of him. I love the bloodline with his father being a former Pro Bowl cornerback. I love the production he had at Alabama. I know that any position at any school you’re going to find busts, but I really like him coming from that program, what he obviously learned while being in that program, how quickly he made an impact as a true freshman, how other college coaches talked about him. I’m all in on Surtain to the point where I really don’t care if they add anything else at cornerback in free agency. I’m fine with the veterans they have if I know they’re going to be putting Trevon Diggs on the outside on one side and Surtain on the outside on the other. I know there have been some concerns about Surtain’s speed, although he ran well at his pro day this week. I just wonder if his stock will rise high enough to where he doesn’t even make it to 10. It seems like there are enough quarterbacks, offensive tackles and offensive skill position players to push him back to 10, though. Do you think it’s too risky to not do anything else at corner, thinking you’re going to get Surtain and then he ends up going a pick or two before you’re on the clock?
Sturm: Ten is an interesting spot. My initial thought in February was to sit there and grab Surtain or Caleb Farley. Clearly, the medicals on Farley are disconcerting. The Surtain pro day was good enough that he could rise above 10. But honestly, with the way this draft looks, with so many quality quarterbacks, wide receivers, Kyle Pitts the tight end and even these offensive tackles, I still kind of think that the Cowboys will get their first choice of any defender in the draft at No. 10. I really think that’s how this draft is going to go. And if it does, I think you take Surtain. If he’s gone, I would be very tempted to grab one of these premium offensive tackles. That probably wouldn’t be the most popular thing ever, but the reason I say that is because after looking at the top 10 corners or at least what I think are probably the top 10 corners in this draft, I just put out my second group in this week’s draft digest, I really think the second round is going to have a ton of great prospect corners. Given the fact that they found Diggs at Pick 51, we should not get too all in at corner at No. 10 unless it’s the guy we really want. I think Surtain fits that mold. I think the other guys probably it’s a little rich and you would rather trade back. The problem with trading back is you usually need somebody chasing a quarterback to trade up. So if all the quarterbacks are gone, and gosh, could five go in the top 10? I doubt it. But four definitely will. If one of those quarterbacks falls to you, maybe that’s a chance to go back and grab some more Day 2 picks. Otherwise, I take either Surtain or the best offensive tackle on the board and I grab my defensive help in the second and third rounds with those three picks because I think there will be plenty of useful corners, safeties, linebackers, defensive tackles and defensive ends. I really don’t think you can go wrong by simply saying, “We’re taking the best player available that is a defensive player on Day 2 with those three top-100 picks.”
