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A football nerd’s guide to the Dallas Cowboys’ 2020 season
By Sheil Kapadia Jun 1, 2020
Editor’s note: Prior to the start of the season, Sheil Kapadia will provide in-depth analytical breakdowns for all 32 NFL teams. You can find the teams he’s already covered here.
After a 10-year run in which the Dallas Cowboys failed to advance past the divisional round in three postseason appearances, Jerry Jones decided to part ways with Jason Garrett this offseason.
Dallas dropped four of its last six games, including a Week 16 matchup in Philadelphia, to finish 8-8 and out of the playoffs. It’s the only time in the last 20 years that a team with a point differential of 100 or more failed to finish above .500 (the Cowboys were at 113).
The Cowboys brought in Mike McCarthy to replace Garrett but held on to Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator and play caller. Mike Nolan takes over as defensive coordinator.
As of this writing, Dak Prescott is scheduled to play on the franchise tag. The Cowboys signed Amari Cooper to a long-term deal and drafted wide receiver CeeDee Lamb in the first round. They added quarterback insurance with veteran Andy Dalton. Dallas’ biggest loss on offense was Travis Frederick retiring.
Defensively, the Cowboys lost cornerback Byron Jones and defensive end Robert Quinn, among others. They signed veteran defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and free safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix.
McCarthy spent a year away from football after the Packers fired him in 2018. Green Bay made the playoffs nine times during his 13-year run and won the Super Bowl in 2010. Now, McCarthy inherits a talented team that should have high expectations.
Below is a preview of the Cowboys’ upcoming season that includes analysis of 2019, their offseason moves as well as their offensive and defensive schemes. Expected points added (EPA) and coverage data is courtesy of Sports Info Solutions. You can find a primer on EPA here or just view it as a success metric that measures a play’s impact on the score of the game. All other numbers are from Sportradar, unless otherwise noted.
Offensive snapshot
The Cowboys ranked second in offensive efficiency last year — fifth in passing and third in rushing. They were also the second-healthiest offense, according to Football Outsiders’ adjusted games lost metric.
Offense (new starters in green)
Dallas is looking at three new starters. Lamb will replace Randall Cobb as one of the top three wide receivers. Either Joe Looney (30 career starts), fourth-round pick Tyler Biadasz or second-year player Connor McGovern will replace Frederick at center. Blake Jarwin, who played 39 percent of the offensive snaps last season, replaces Jason Witten at tight end. McGovern and Connor Williams are options at left guard.
In Moore’s first season as play caller, the Cowboys ranked 18th in pass frequency on early downs in neutral situations. They were one of the more balanced teams and used a lot of pre-snap motions and play-action.
In terms of effectiveness, they ranked sixth in EPA per play on early downs — eighth in passing and 10th in rushing.
The Cowboys were big on using 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers) and that should continue, considering how loaded they are at wide receiver and how thin they are at tight end.
Cowboys offensive personnel groupings
Personnel -- Frequency
Overall, the theme on offense is simple: run it back. Even though McCarthy is now the head coach, the offense wasn’t broken last year, so going overboard with changes would be a mistake.
Rushing offense
The Cowboys have invested heavily in their offensive line and Ezekiel Elliott. Football Outsiders tracks a metric called adjusted line yards to measure how much the blocking and scheme are helping the running back, and Dallas ranked second.
Elliott ranked fourth league-wide with 1,357 yards. Among the 45 running backs who had at least 100 carries, he was third in EPA per rush. Tony Pollard provided a nice change of pace with 455 yards, and Prescott added 277.
The table below shows EPA ranks when rushing out of different personnel groupings (with a minimum of 50 attempts).
Cowboys rushing efficiency
Personnel -- % of runs -- EPA/Rush -- Rank
The Cowboys were very good running out of 11 personnel and were effective using 21 personnel (two running backs, one tight end, two wide receivers) as a changeup. Among the 12 teams that used 21 personnel on at least 50 attempts, the Cowboys ranked first in EPA per rush. Dallas was not as good out of 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two wide receivers).
Scheme-wise, the Cowboys effectively use zone runs and gap runs. The combination of scheme, blocking and Elliott produced one of the best rushing attacks.
Situationally, the Cowboys ranked fifth in rushing efficiency in the red zone and seventh in short yardage. They were better on shotgun runs (with a positive EPA 50 percent of the time) than under center runs (43.8 percent).
Bottom line: There’s not a whole lot to analyze with the Cowboys’ run game. They have a good scheme, good talent and enough diversity so opponents can’t get a bead on what’s coming. They also do a tremendous job of marrying the run game to their play-action schemes. The one concern is the loss of Frederick. He missed all of 2018, and the Cowboys finished 18th in rushing efficiency that season. Of course, there were other differences — Scott Linehan was the offensive coordinator, and they didn’t get Cooper until midway through the season. They also have more options to replace Frederick this time. The Cowboys will likely experience some dropoff but are positioned to once again have a very strong run game.
Passing offense
Prescott finished last season ranked fourth in QBR and sixth in adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A). Over the course of four seasons, he’s completed 65.8 percent of his passes, averaged 7.6 yards per attempt (YPA) and thrown 97 touchdown passes with 36 interceptions. He dealt with a shoulder injury at the end of last season but has never missed a start.
Next Gen Stats tracks a metric called completion percentage above expectation. It looks at the probability of a completion on every throw, based on factors like how far the throw is, how open the receiver is and how much pressure the quarterback is under. It then comes up with an expected completion percentage and compares that number to the quarterback’s actual completion percentage. Prescott ranked sixth out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks. The idea that he was constantly throwing to wide-open guys is not accurate. Prescott’s expected completion percentage was 62.6, which ranked 29th out of 39 quarterbacks. And 17.8 percent of Prescott’s throws were into tight windows, defined as having a defender within 1 yard of the target; that was slightly above league average.
On the decision-making front, Prescott’s 1.8 interception percentage ranked 13th, and he fumbled six times. Prescott produced a negative result (an interception, sack or fumble) on just 5.8 percent of the plays in which he had the ball. That ranked third behind only Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes.
Below is a look at how Prescott performed out of 11 and 12 personnel — the only two groupings the Cowboys used for at least 50 pass plays.
Prescott's passing efficiency
Personnel -- EPA/Dropback -- Rank
Prescott was very good out of 11 and 12 personnel. When he threw out of 11, the Cowboys produced a positive EPA 55.6 percent of the time. That was the top mark for any quarterback out of that grouping.
The Cowboys held on to Cooper, extended the contract of Jarwin and drafted Lamb. They lost Cobb and Witten in free agency.
Cowboys pass-catchers in 2019
Cooper will be just 26 at the start of next season and has already performed like a top-10 wide receiver. Michael Gallup has gotten overshadowed, but he had a tremendous season, racking up over 1,100 yards and finishing 10th in yards per route run. Cobb played well and saw 83 targets. Those should go to Lamb, who is great with the ball in his hands and can make plays downfield. One thing the Cowboys will have to figure out is who most often lines up in the slot. Last year, Cooper was in the slot just 14.2 percent of the time on pass plays, and it was even lower, 13.5 percent, for Gallup.
At tight end, it’s a small sample for Jarwin, who ran just 186 routes, but he produced when given the opportunity and it made sense for the Cowboys to have him replace Witten. And, finally, Elliott didn’t give the Cowboys much in the passing game.
Here’s a look at how Prescott performed against man and zone:
Prescott passing vs. different coverages
Coverage -- EPA/Dropback -- Rank
Prescott performed well against both but was better against zone. There was no real kryptonite coverage against him. He performed worst against Cover-1 — man coverage with a single deep safety — but even then ranked ninth in EPA per dropback.
One big change last year was that Prescott threw downfield more often. In 2018, just 8.2 percent of his dropbacks resulted in downfield attempts; last year, that number jumped to 11.4 percent. Sports Info Solutions marked 52.9 percent of Prescott’s downfield throws as being on target. That ranked 12th out of the 25 quarterbacks who attempted at least 40 deep passes. Prescott’s average throw traveled 9.3 yards from the line of scrimmage, which ranked sixth. Again, that was a big jump from 7.6 yards in 2018, which ranked 26th.
Prescott ate up the blitz, averaging 8.3 yards per dropback when opponents sent five or more rushers. That ranked fifth.
The Cowboys ranked 13th in play-action frequency, and Prescott was 16th in EPA per dropback on play-action throws. Here are Prescott’s splits when inside the pocket versus outside the pocket:
Prescott inside/outside the pocket
-- EPA/Dropback -- Rank
Sense a theme? Prescott’s consistency across those categories was impressive. He was better in the pocket but still effective outside the pocket.
Situationally, Prescott was very good with the game on the line. In the fourth quarter when tied or trailing, only five quarterbacks had a higher EPA than Prescott. He was ninth out of 35 quarterbacks in EPA per dropback in those situations.
The Cowboys were first in DVOA in third- or fourth-and-long situations and fourth in red zone passing.
Up front, the Cowboys will have at least one new starter replacing Frederick. They return Tyron Smith at left tackle, La’el Collins at right tackle and Zack Martin at right guard. Either McGovern or Williams is expected to start at left guard. The Cowboys weren’t quite as good in pass protection as they were in run blocking. They ranked 11th in ESPN’s pass-block win rate metric. Individually, neither of the Cowboys’ starting offensive tackles ranked in the top 10. Martin ranked fifth among all guards.
Prescott is comfortable holding on to the ball and waiting for receivers to get open. He got rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or less on just 36.5 percent of his dropbacks, which ranked 27th out of 38 quarterbacks. Prescott was sacked or hit on 16.7 percent of his dropbacks, which was the seventh-lowest rate.
Bottom line: The Cowboys are in great shape in the passing game. They have a durable, efficient quarterback in Prescott, a strong offensive line and excellent weapons, plus continuity with Moore’s scheme and a solid backup in Dalton. They need to replace Frederick and might not see the same injury luck as a year ago. But overall, they have a high-floor, high-ceiling passing offense.
Defensive snapshot
The Cowboys finished 19th in defensive efficiency — 23rd against the pass and 15th against the run. They ranked 21st in injury luck, per Football Outsiders’ adjusted games lost metric.
While it’s unclear what scheme changes Nolan will bring, The Athletic’s Bob Sturm made the case the Cowboys are likely to blitz more and play more man coverage than they have in previous years. Here’s a look at how Nolan’s defenses performed during his last six seasons as a coordinator (he spent the last three years as the Saints’ linebackers coach and had the same role with the Chargers in 2015):
Mike Nolan's track record
Year -- Team -- Defensive DVOA Ranking
Nolan’s defenses from 2009-12 performed in the top half of the league, but the Falcons in 2013 and 2014 were among the worst. Obviously, talent plays a key role. Here’s who Nolan will be working with:
Defense (new starters in green)
The Cowboys are looking at five new starters on defense and a lot of turnover up front. The defensive end spot opposite Demarcus Lawrence is up for grabs. The Cowboys took a flier on Aldon Smith, but he turns 31 in September and has not played a snap since 2015. Randy Gregory did not play last season, but he could be reinstated and become an option. Tyrone Crawford is coming off of multiple hip surgeries but offers versatility. Or a young player like Dorance Armstrong, Joe Jackson or Bradlee Anae could emerge. The Cowboys are taking a lot of swings and hoping they connect on one.
McCoy takes over for Maliek Collins at one defensive tackle spot, and the Cowboys signed Dontari Poe as another option. Leighton Vander Esch missed seven games last season but has shown promise when healthy. Second-round pick Trevon Diggs could be called on to start right away at corner in place of Jones. Clinton-Dix replaces Jeff Heath at safety.
The Cowboys were in nickel on 62 percent of their defensive snaps last year and in base 33 percent of the time.
Situationally, the Cowboys ranked 13th in red zone defense and 13th in short yardage.
Rushing defense
The Cowboys were mediocre against the run last season, ranking 15th. Here’s a look at how they performed against different personnel groupings:
Cowboys run defense
Personnel -- EPA/Rush -- Rank
The EPA per rush numbers are similar. Compared to their peers, the Cowboys were not as strong in base, but they held up well in nickel.
Football Outsiders uses a metric called adjusted line yards to try to measure defensive line performance against the run. The Cowboys ranked eighth. They’ll be counting on McCoy, Poe and whoever plays opposite Lawrence at defensive end to be adequate replacements. It’s unclear what kind of front Nolan will employ, but it seems likely that the Cowboys will be less of a static 4-3 team than they have been. Jim Tomsula will be coaching the Cowboys’ defensive line.
Where Dallas got dinged against the run last season was in the open field — defined as 10 yards or more past the line of scrimmage. The Cowboys ranked 19th in open-field yards. That’s something to keep an eye on as Clinton-Dix has had tackling issues in the past.
Jaylon Smith’s 81 tackles against the run were seventh-most by any player. Sean Lee, who is back with the Cowboys, ranked second on the team with 48.
Here’s a look at how the last six Nolan-coordinated defenses performed against the run:
Mike Nolan's defenses vs. the run
Year -- Team -- Rush DVOA Rank
His teams finished in the top five against the run once and in the bottom half of the league four times.
Bottom line: Given the turnover — in personnel and on the coaching staff — it’s tough to predict how the Cowboys’ run defense will perform. But on the surface, they appear to have mediocre talent.
Passing defense
With the additions of Diggs and Clinton-Dix as well as the loss of Jones and Heath, the Cowboys’ secondary will look different than it did at the start of 2019. Scheme-wise, they were a big zone team and a big single-high safety team last season under Kris Richard. Only four teams played man coverage at a lower rate than the Cowboys, and only four teams played single-high schemes (Cover-3 and Cover-1) more often. Here’s how the defense performed in man and zone:
Cowboys pass defense: Man vs. zone
Coverage -- DVOA/Dropback -- Rank
The Cowboys were better in man than zone, but their league-wide ranks were similar. The thing that really hurt them was a lack of interceptions — seven total, tied for last. Per TruMedia, the Cowboys ranked 31st in EPA on interceptions. Had they been league average with interceptions, their defensive numbers would look a lot better. The Cowboys are hoping a more aggressive scheme will lead to more takeaways. They’ve been in the bottom half of the league in EPA on interceptions for five straight seasons.
Cover-3 — a three-deep zone with four underneath defenders — was Dallas’ most popular coverage. They ranked 11th in EPA per dropback when playing Cover-3. Their second-most popular coverage was Cover-1: man coverage with a single deep safety. They ranked ninth when playing Cover-1.
One area where the Cowboys got crushed was on running back and tight end screens. Only the Giants and Dolphins had a worse EPA on those plays.
Here’s a look at where they ranked in coverage against different positional targets:
Pass defense vs. different targets
Target -- DVOA/EPA Rank
If you’re wondering how Vander Esch’s absence down the stretch influenced those numbers against tight ends and running backs, the answer is not much. The Cowboys’ EPA numbers against tight ends and running backs in Weeks 12 through 17 with Sean Lee replacing Vander Esch were better than in Weeks 1 through 11.
The Cowboys ranked 10th when outside wide receivers were targeted, but they’ll now need to replace Jones with Diggs or another cornerback. Dallas ranked 25th in EPA per attempt against slot receivers.
Here’s a look at their pass defense by personnel grouping:
Cowboys pass defense by personnel
Personnel -- EPA/Dropback -- Rank
The Cowboys had some issues against 12 personnel, but again, they were mostly mediocre across the board.
Up front, the Cowboys ranked first in ESPN’s pass-rush win rate metric. But they produced a sack or hit on 19.9 percent of opponents’ pass plays, which ranked 20th. The discrepancy could be due to a number of different factors. One is opposing quarterbacks getting rid of the ball quickly. Another is not having a coordinated rush plan, meaning quarterbacks were able to buy time easily and escape initial pressure.
The personnel will look a lot different. Quinn led the Cowboys with 11.5 sacks and 22 quarterback hits. He produced a sack or QB hit on 9.6 percent of his pass-rush opportunities, which ranked 10th leaguewide. Quinn also ranked first among edge rushers in pass-rush win rate. He parlayed that performance into a big contract with the Bears. Lawrence ranked third in pass-rush win rate, which indicates he performed better than the traditional numbers (five sacks, 16 QB hits) suggest. Collins finished fourth among defensive tackles in pass-rush win rate and signed with the Raiders. Michael Bennett, who had four sacks and 11 QB hits, is still a free agent.
As for the players the Cowboys brought in, McCoy, 32, was still productive with the Panthers last season as he finished with five sacks and 13 QB hits. Poe is more of an early-down player. He had four sacks and six QB hits and was often replaced in Carolina in pass-rush situations. Smith and Gregory are wild cards.
The Cowboys ranked 25th in blitz frequency last season at 24.9 percent. As mentioned, Nolan will likely be more aggressive with his pressure packages.
Here’s a look at how Nolan’s most recent pass defenses have performed:
Nolan's track record: Pass defense
Year -- Team -- Passing DVOA Rank
Again, it’s really a mixed bag. He had some good units from 2009-12, but the Falcons’ pass defenses in 2013 and 2014 were among the worst.
Bottom line: The only thing we can say with certainty is that the Cowboys’ pass defense is going to look different. Personnel-wise, they have to hope Diggs or another option can adequately man one of the outside corner spots. And up front, they need someone to emerge opposite Lawrence. Scheme-wise, the most likely scenario is we see an uptick in man coverage and more pressure schemes. The Cowboys will be less static than they have been, but their defense has been undergoing a lot of change during a shortened offseason, so there’s an especially wide range of outcomes.
Overall
The Cowboys went 80-64 during Garrett’s nine full seasons as head coach. That was the ninth-best record in the league. They were 8-8 on four separate occasions and had three really good seasons but managed just two playoff wins.
Despite having a highly efficient offense last season, Garrett was below league average in fourth-down aggressiveness.
The Cowboys were 19th last year, but they ranked 12th league-wide during Garrett’s tenure.
McCarthy, meanwhile, developed into one of the more aggressive coaches on fourth down during his final years in Green Bay.
On one hand, the Cowboys should be poised to improve from last year. As mentioned, they produced fewer wins than what’s typically associated with their point differential. They have continuity with their quarterback, play caller and offense. And they were 1-6 in one-possession games.
The Cowboys’ special teams ranked 30th in DVOA. McCarthy hired veteran special teams coach John Fassel to his staff. Fassel’s special teams units with the Rams finished in the top 10 in DVOA five times in eight years. The Cowboys have the ninth-easiest schedule. And even if McCarthy arrives with questions, he should still provide an upgrade over Garrett.
On the other hand, the Cowboys were the fourth-healthiest team last season. Their depth will be tested with worse injury luck.
William Hill has the Cowboys third behind only the 49ers and Saints in their odds to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Their over/under for wins is 9.5.
For the most part, Dallas has been disciplined in its roster-building in recent years. The Cowboys enter a new era with unknowns in terms of their defensive talent and what McCarthy will bring. But the truth is they’ve figured out the most important part: how to build an efficient offense. Barring something unforeseen, the offense should put them in position to compete for the NFC East title, and if McCarthy proves to be a big upgrade over Garrett, they have a Super Bowl ceiling.
By Sheil Kapadia Jun 1, 2020
Editor’s note: Prior to the start of the season, Sheil Kapadia will provide in-depth analytical breakdowns for all 32 NFL teams. You can find the teams he’s already covered here.
After a 10-year run in which the Dallas Cowboys failed to advance past the divisional round in three postseason appearances, Jerry Jones decided to part ways with Jason Garrett this offseason.
Dallas dropped four of its last six games, including a Week 16 matchup in Philadelphia, to finish 8-8 and out of the playoffs. It’s the only time in the last 20 years that a team with a point differential of 100 or more failed to finish above .500 (the Cowboys were at 113).
The Cowboys brought in Mike McCarthy to replace Garrett but held on to Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator and play caller. Mike Nolan takes over as defensive coordinator.
As of this writing, Dak Prescott is scheduled to play on the franchise tag. The Cowboys signed Amari Cooper to a long-term deal and drafted wide receiver CeeDee Lamb in the first round. They added quarterback insurance with veteran Andy Dalton. Dallas’ biggest loss on offense was Travis Frederick retiring.
Defensively, the Cowboys lost cornerback Byron Jones and defensive end Robert Quinn, among others. They signed veteran defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and free safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix.
McCarthy spent a year away from football after the Packers fired him in 2018. Green Bay made the playoffs nine times during his 13-year run and won the Super Bowl in 2010. Now, McCarthy inherits a talented team that should have high expectations.
Below is a preview of the Cowboys’ upcoming season that includes analysis of 2019, their offseason moves as well as their offensive and defensive schemes. Expected points added (EPA) and coverage data is courtesy of Sports Info Solutions. You can find a primer on EPA here or just view it as a success metric that measures a play’s impact on the score of the game. All other numbers are from Sportradar, unless otherwise noted.
Offensive snapshot
The Cowboys ranked second in offensive efficiency last year — fifth in passing and third in rushing. They were also the second-healthiest offense, according to Football Outsiders’ adjusted games lost metric.
Offense (new starters in green)
| WR |  Amari Cooper |
| WR |  Michael Gallup |
| WR |  CeeDee Lamb |
| LT |  Tyron Smith |
| LG |  Connor Williams |
| C |  Joe Looney |
| RG |  Zack Martin |
| RT |  La'el Collins |
| TE |  Blake Jarwin |
| QB |  Dak Prescott |
| RB |  Ezekiel Elliott |
Dallas is looking at three new starters. Lamb will replace Randall Cobb as one of the top three wide receivers. Either Joe Looney (30 career starts), fourth-round pick Tyler Biadasz or second-year player Connor McGovern will replace Frederick at center. Blake Jarwin, who played 39 percent of the offensive snaps last season, replaces Jason Witten at tight end. McGovern and Connor Williams are options at left guard.
In Moore’s first season as play caller, the Cowboys ranked 18th in pass frequency on early downs in neutral situations. They were one of the more balanced teams and used a lot of pre-snap motions and play-action.
In terms of effectiveness, they ranked sixth in EPA per play on early downs — eighth in passing and 10th in rushing.
The Cowboys were big on using 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers) and that should continue, considering how loaded they are at wide receiver and how thin they are at tight end.
Cowboys offensive personnel groupings
Personnel -- Frequency
| 11 | 67% |
| 12 | 19% |
| 21 | 9% |
Overall, the theme on offense is simple: run it back. Even though McCarthy is now the head coach, the offense wasn’t broken last year, so going overboard with changes would be a mistake.
Rushing offense
The Cowboys have invested heavily in their offensive line and Ezekiel Elliott. Football Outsiders tracks a metric called adjusted line yards to measure how much the blocking and scheme are helping the running back, and Dallas ranked second.
Elliott ranked fourth league-wide with 1,357 yards. Among the 45 running backs who had at least 100 carries, he was third in EPA per rush. Tony Pollard provided a nice change of pace with 455 yards, and Prescott added 277.
The table below shows EPA ranks when rushing out of different personnel groupings (with a minimum of 50 attempts).
Cowboys rushing efficiency
Personnel -- % of runs -- EPA/Rush -- Rank
| 11 | 52% | 0.12 | 3rd |
| 12 | 27% | -0.05 | 10th |
| 21 | 12% | 0.05 | 4th out of 11 |
The Cowboys were very good running out of 11 personnel and were effective using 21 personnel (two running backs, one tight end, two wide receivers) as a changeup. Among the 12 teams that used 21 personnel on at least 50 attempts, the Cowboys ranked first in EPA per rush. Dallas was not as good out of 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two wide receivers).
Scheme-wise, the Cowboys effectively use zone runs and gap runs. The combination of scheme, blocking and Elliott produced one of the best rushing attacks.
Situationally, the Cowboys ranked fifth in rushing efficiency in the red zone and seventh in short yardage. They were better on shotgun runs (with a positive EPA 50 percent of the time) than under center runs (43.8 percent).
Bottom line: There’s not a whole lot to analyze with the Cowboys’ run game. They have a good scheme, good talent and enough diversity so opponents can’t get a bead on what’s coming. They also do a tremendous job of marrying the run game to their play-action schemes. The one concern is the loss of Frederick. He missed all of 2018, and the Cowboys finished 18th in rushing efficiency that season. Of course, there were other differences — Scott Linehan was the offensive coordinator, and they didn’t get Cooper until midway through the season. They also have more options to replace Frederick this time. The Cowboys will likely experience some dropoff but are positioned to once again have a very strong run game.
Passing offense
Prescott finished last season ranked fourth in QBR and sixth in adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A). Over the course of four seasons, he’s completed 65.8 percent of his passes, averaged 7.6 yards per attempt (YPA) and thrown 97 touchdown passes with 36 interceptions. He dealt with a shoulder injury at the end of last season but has never missed a start.
Next Gen Stats tracks a metric called completion percentage above expectation. It looks at the probability of a completion on every throw, based on factors like how far the throw is, how open the receiver is and how much pressure the quarterback is under. It then comes up with an expected completion percentage and compares that number to the quarterback’s actual completion percentage. Prescott ranked sixth out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks. The idea that he was constantly throwing to wide-open guys is not accurate. Prescott’s expected completion percentage was 62.6, which ranked 29th out of 39 quarterbacks. And 17.8 percent of Prescott’s throws were into tight windows, defined as having a defender within 1 yard of the target; that was slightly above league average.
On the decision-making front, Prescott’s 1.8 interception percentage ranked 13th, and he fumbled six times. Prescott produced a negative result (an interception, sack or fumble) on just 5.8 percent of the plays in which he had the ball. That ranked third behind only Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes.
Below is a look at how Prescott performed out of 11 and 12 personnel — the only two groupings the Cowboys used for at least 50 pass plays.
Prescott's passing efficiency
Personnel -- EPA/Dropback -- Rank
| 11 | 0.22 | 2nd |
| 12 | 0.18 | 4th out of 22 |
Prescott was very good out of 11 and 12 personnel. When he threw out of 11, the Cowboys produced a positive EPA 55.6 percent of the time. That was the top mark for any quarterback out of that grouping.
The Cowboys held on to Cooper, extended the contract of Jarwin and drafted Lamb. They lost Cobb and Witten in free agency.
Cowboys pass-catchers in 2019
| Amari Cooper | 1189 | 2.36 | 8th out of 111 |
| Michael Gallup | 1107 | 2.23 | 10th out of 111 |
 Randall Cobb | 828 | 1.83 | 37th out of 111 |
 Jason Witten | 529 | 1.25 | 34th out of 67 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 420 | 0.98 | 48th out of 58 |
| Blake Jarwin | 365 | 1.96 | 8th out of 67 |
Cooper will be just 26 at the start of next season and has already performed like a top-10 wide receiver. Michael Gallup has gotten overshadowed, but he had a tremendous season, racking up over 1,100 yards and finishing 10th in yards per route run. Cobb played well and saw 83 targets. Those should go to Lamb, who is great with the ball in his hands and can make plays downfield. One thing the Cowboys will have to figure out is who most often lines up in the slot. Last year, Cooper was in the slot just 14.2 percent of the time on pass plays, and it was even lower, 13.5 percent, for Gallup.
At tight end, it’s a small sample for Jarwin, who ran just 186 routes, but he produced when given the opportunity and it made sense for the Cowboys to have him replace Witten. And, finally, Elliott didn’t give the Cowboys much in the passing game.
Here’s a look at how Prescott performed against man and zone:
Prescott passing vs. different coverages
Coverage -- EPA/Dropback -- Rank
| Man | 0.15 | 10th |
| Zone | 0.22 | 5th |
Prescott performed well against both but was better against zone. There was no real kryptonite coverage against him. He performed worst against Cover-1 — man coverage with a single deep safety — but even then ranked ninth in EPA per dropback.
One big change last year was that Prescott threw downfield more often. In 2018, just 8.2 percent of his dropbacks resulted in downfield attempts; last year, that number jumped to 11.4 percent. Sports Info Solutions marked 52.9 percent of Prescott’s downfield throws as being on target. That ranked 12th out of the 25 quarterbacks who attempted at least 40 deep passes. Prescott’s average throw traveled 9.3 yards from the line of scrimmage, which ranked sixth. Again, that was a big jump from 7.6 yards in 2018, which ranked 26th.
Prescott ate up the blitz, averaging 8.3 yards per dropback when opponents sent five or more rushers. That ranked fifth.
The Cowboys ranked 13th in play-action frequency, and Prescott was 16th in EPA per dropback on play-action throws. Here are Prescott’s splits when inside the pocket versus outside the pocket:
Prescott inside/outside the pocket
-- EPA/Dropback -- Rank
| In the pocket | 0.19 | 6th |
| Outside the pocket | 0.06 | 7th out of 22 |
Sense a theme? Prescott’s consistency across those categories was impressive. He was better in the pocket but still effective outside the pocket.
Situationally, Prescott was very good with the game on the line. In the fourth quarter when tied or trailing, only five quarterbacks had a higher EPA than Prescott. He was ninth out of 35 quarterbacks in EPA per dropback in those situations.
The Cowboys were first in DVOA in third- or fourth-and-long situations and fourth in red zone passing.
Up front, the Cowboys will have at least one new starter replacing Frederick. They return Tyron Smith at left tackle, La’el Collins at right tackle and Zack Martin at right guard. Either McGovern or Williams is expected to start at left guard. The Cowboys weren’t quite as good in pass protection as they were in run blocking. They ranked 11th in ESPN’s pass-block win rate metric. Individually, neither of the Cowboys’ starting offensive tackles ranked in the top 10. Martin ranked fifth among all guards.
Prescott is comfortable holding on to the ball and waiting for receivers to get open. He got rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or less on just 36.5 percent of his dropbacks, which ranked 27th out of 38 quarterbacks. Prescott was sacked or hit on 16.7 percent of his dropbacks, which was the seventh-lowest rate.
Bottom line: The Cowboys are in great shape in the passing game. They have a durable, efficient quarterback in Prescott, a strong offensive line and excellent weapons, plus continuity with Moore’s scheme and a solid backup in Dalton. They need to replace Frederick and might not see the same injury luck as a year ago. But overall, they have a high-floor, high-ceiling passing offense.
Defensive snapshot
The Cowboys finished 19th in defensive efficiency — 23rd against the pass and 15th against the run. They ranked 21st in injury luck, per Football Outsiders’ adjusted games lost metric.
While it’s unclear what scheme changes Nolan will bring, The Athletic’s Bob Sturm made the case the Cowboys are likely to blitz more and play more man coverage than they have in previous years. Here’s a look at how Nolan’s defenses performed during his last six seasons as a coordinator (he spent the last three years as the Saints’ linebackers coach and had the same role with the Chargers in 2015):
Mike Nolan's track record
Year -- Team -- Defensive DVOA Ranking
Broncos
Dolphins
FalconsNolan’s defenses from 2009-12 performed in the top half of the league, but the Falcons in 2013 and 2014 were among the worst. Obviously, talent plays a key role. Here’s who Nolan will be working with:
Defense (new starters in green)
| DE |  Demarcus Lawrence |
| DT |  Gerald McCoy |
| DT |  Dontari Poe |
| DE |
|
| LB |  Jaylon Smith |
| LB |  Leighton Vander Esch |
| CB |  Chidobe Awuzie |
| CB | Trevon Diggs |
| CB |  Anthony Brown |
| S |  Xavier Woods |
| S |  Ha Ha Clinton-Dix |
The Cowboys are looking at five new starters on defense and a lot of turnover up front. The defensive end spot opposite Demarcus Lawrence is up for grabs. The Cowboys took a flier on Aldon Smith, but he turns 31 in September and has not played a snap since 2015. Randy Gregory did not play last season, but he could be reinstated and become an option. Tyrone Crawford is coming off of multiple hip surgeries but offers versatility. Or a young player like Dorance Armstrong, Joe Jackson or Bradlee Anae could emerge. The Cowboys are taking a lot of swings and hoping they connect on one.
McCoy takes over for Maliek Collins at one defensive tackle spot, and the Cowboys signed Dontari Poe as another option. Leighton Vander Esch missed seven games last season but has shown promise when healthy. Second-round pick Trevon Diggs could be called on to start right away at corner in place of Jones. Clinton-Dix replaces Jeff Heath at safety.
The Cowboys were in nickel on 62 percent of their defensive snaps last year and in base 33 percent of the time.
Situationally, the Cowboys ranked 13th in red zone defense and 13th in short yardage.
Rushing defense
The Cowboys were mediocre against the run last season, ranking 15th. Here’s a look at how they performed against different personnel groupings:
Cowboys run defense
Personnel -- EPA/Rush -- Rank
| Base | -0.10 | 18th |
| Nickel | -0.08 | 8th |
| Vs. 11 | -0.07 | 7th |
| Vs. 12 | -0.12 | 10th |
The EPA per rush numbers are similar. Compared to their peers, the Cowboys were not as strong in base, but they held up well in nickel.
Football Outsiders uses a metric called adjusted line yards to try to measure defensive line performance against the run. The Cowboys ranked eighth. They’ll be counting on McCoy, Poe and whoever plays opposite Lawrence at defensive end to be adequate replacements. It’s unclear what kind of front Nolan will employ, but it seems likely that the Cowboys will be less of a static 4-3 team than they have been. Jim Tomsula will be coaching the Cowboys’ defensive line.
Where Dallas got dinged against the run last season was in the open field — defined as 10 yards or more past the line of scrimmage. The Cowboys ranked 19th in open-field yards. That’s something to keep an eye on as Clinton-Dix has had tackling issues in the past.
Jaylon Smith’s 81 tackles against the run were seventh-most by any player. Sean Lee, who is back with the Cowboys, ranked second on the team with 48.
Here’s a look at how the last six Nolan-coordinated defenses performed against the run:
Mike Nolan's defenses vs. the run
Year -- Team -- Rush DVOA Rank
His teams finished in the top five against the run once and in the bottom half of the league four times.
Bottom line: Given the turnover — in personnel and on the coaching staff — it’s tough to predict how the Cowboys’ run defense will perform. But on the surface, they appear to have mediocre talent.
Passing defense
With the additions of Diggs and Clinton-Dix as well as the loss of Jones and Heath, the Cowboys’ secondary will look different than it did at the start of 2019. Scheme-wise, they were a big zone team and a big single-high safety team last season under Kris Richard. Only four teams played man coverage at a lower rate than the Cowboys, and only four teams played single-high schemes (Cover-3 and Cover-1) more often. Here’s how the defense performed in man and zone:
Cowboys pass defense: Man vs. zone
Coverage -- DVOA/Dropback -- Rank
| Man | -0.09 | 11th |
| Zone | -0.02 | 10th |
The Cowboys were better in man than zone, but their league-wide ranks were similar. The thing that really hurt them was a lack of interceptions — seven total, tied for last. Per TruMedia, the Cowboys ranked 31st in EPA on interceptions. Had they been league average with interceptions, their defensive numbers would look a lot better. The Cowboys are hoping a more aggressive scheme will lead to more takeaways. They’ve been in the bottom half of the league in EPA on interceptions for five straight seasons.
Cover-3 — a three-deep zone with four underneath defenders — was Dallas’ most popular coverage. They ranked 11th in EPA per dropback when playing Cover-3. Their second-most popular coverage was Cover-1: man coverage with a single deep safety. They ranked ninth when playing Cover-1.
One area where the Cowboys got crushed was on running back and tight end screens. Only the Giants and Dolphins had a worse EPA on those plays.
Here’s a look at where they ranked in coverage against different positional targets:
Pass defense vs. different targets
Target -- DVOA/EPA Rank
| WR | 16th |
| TE | 23rd |
| RB | 20th |
If you’re wondering how Vander Esch’s absence down the stretch influenced those numbers against tight ends and running backs, the answer is not much. The Cowboys’ EPA numbers against tight ends and running backs in Weeks 12 through 17 with Sean Lee replacing Vander Esch were better than in Weeks 1 through 11.
The Cowboys ranked 10th when outside wide receivers were targeted, but they’ll now need to replace Jones with Diggs or another cornerback. Dallas ranked 25th in EPA per attempt against slot receivers.
Here’s a look at their pass defense by personnel grouping:
Cowboys pass defense by personnel
Personnel -- EPA/Dropback -- Rank
| Base | -0.06 | 8th |
| Nickel | -0.01 | 15th |
| Vs. 11 | -0.06 | 11th |
| Vs. 12 | 0.11 | 18th |
The Cowboys had some issues against 12 personnel, but again, they were mostly mediocre across the board.
Up front, the Cowboys ranked first in ESPN’s pass-rush win rate metric. But they produced a sack or hit on 19.9 percent of opponents’ pass plays, which ranked 20th. The discrepancy could be due to a number of different factors. One is opposing quarterbacks getting rid of the ball quickly. Another is not having a coordinated rush plan, meaning quarterbacks were able to buy time easily and escape initial pressure.
The personnel will look a lot different. Quinn led the Cowboys with 11.5 sacks and 22 quarterback hits. He produced a sack or QB hit on 9.6 percent of his pass-rush opportunities, which ranked 10th leaguewide. Quinn also ranked first among edge rushers in pass-rush win rate. He parlayed that performance into a big contract with the Bears. Lawrence ranked third in pass-rush win rate, which indicates he performed better than the traditional numbers (five sacks, 16 QB hits) suggest. Collins finished fourth among defensive tackles in pass-rush win rate and signed with the Raiders. Michael Bennett, who had four sacks and 11 QB hits, is still a free agent.
As for the players the Cowboys brought in, McCoy, 32, was still productive with the Panthers last season as he finished with five sacks and 13 QB hits. Poe is more of an early-down player. He had four sacks and six QB hits and was often replaced in Carolina in pass-rush situations. Smith and Gregory are wild cards.
The Cowboys ranked 25th in blitz frequency last season at 24.9 percent. As mentioned, Nolan will likely be more aggressive with his pressure packages.
Here’s a look at how Nolan’s most recent pass defenses have performed:
Nolan's track record: Pass defense
Year -- Team -- Passing DVOA Rank
Again, it’s really a mixed bag. He had some good units from 2009-12, but the Falcons’ pass defenses in 2013 and 2014 were among the worst.
Bottom line: The only thing we can say with certainty is that the Cowboys’ pass defense is going to look different. Personnel-wise, they have to hope Diggs or another option can adequately man one of the outside corner spots. And up front, they need someone to emerge opposite Lawrence. Scheme-wise, the most likely scenario is we see an uptick in man coverage and more pressure schemes. The Cowboys will be less static than they have been, but their defense has been undergoing a lot of change during a shortened offseason, so there’s an especially wide range of outcomes.
Overall
The Cowboys went 80-64 during Garrett’s nine full seasons as head coach. That was the ninth-best record in the league. They were 8-8 on four separate occasions and had three really good seasons but managed just two playoff wins.
Despite having a highly efficient offense last season, Garrett was below league average in fourth-down aggressiveness.
The Cowboys were 19th last year, but they ranked 12th league-wide during Garrett’s tenure.
McCarthy, meanwhile, developed into one of the more aggressive coaches on fourth down during his final years in Green Bay.
On one hand, the Cowboys should be poised to improve from last year. As mentioned, they produced fewer wins than what’s typically associated with their point differential. They have continuity with their quarterback, play caller and offense. And they were 1-6 in one-possession games.
The Cowboys’ special teams ranked 30th in DVOA. McCarthy hired veteran special teams coach John Fassel to his staff. Fassel’s special teams units with the Rams finished in the top 10 in DVOA five times in eight years. The Cowboys have the ninth-easiest schedule. And even if McCarthy arrives with questions, he should still provide an upgrade over Garrett.
On the other hand, the Cowboys were the fourth-healthiest team last season. Their depth will be tested with worse injury luck.
William Hill has the Cowboys third behind only the 49ers and Saints in their odds to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Their over/under for wins is 9.5.
For the most part, Dallas has been disciplined in its roster-building in recent years. The Cowboys enter a new era with unknowns in terms of their defensive talent and what McCarthy will bring. But the truth is they’ve figured out the most important part: how to build an efficient offense. Barring something unforeseen, the offense should put them in position to compete for the NFC East title, and if McCarthy proves to be a big upgrade over Garrett, they have a Super Bowl ceiling.
