Texans Releasing J.J. Watt

Genghis Khan

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This might seem like a ridiculous question but, is Watt a future HOFer?

The truth is, he had 4 seasons of HOF type production. He had 1 more season of good (not great) production.

That's it. The rest of his career has been a mix of injury riddled and mediocre.

He's currently 31st on the career sack list, right behind Jim Jeffcoat.

Maybe he's on the Terrell Davis / Gayle Sayers path, but I'm not sure he should be a slam dunk, no question HOFer unless he has a resurgence at his next stop.
 

ravidubey

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This might seem like a ridiculous question but, is Watt a future HOFer?

The truth is, he had 4 seasons of HOF type production. He had 1 more season of good (not great) production.

That's it. The rest of his career has been a mix of injury riddled and mediocre.

He's currently 31st on the career sack list, right behind Jim Jeffcoat.

Maybe he's on the Terrell Davis / Gayle Sayers path, but I'm not sure he should be a slam dunk, no question HOFer unless he has a resurgence at his next stop.
1st ballot IMO.

5 time all pro, unanimous all decade player for the 2010's and the guy's not done yet. Super leader on and off the field too. Before his injuries, I was ranking him equal to impact with Reggie White, who IMO is the gold standard.

He changed the game from a Passes Defended perspective for DL. Others had done this of course to lesser degrees (go Too Tall!), but Watt blew those folks away. His 2012 season with 20.5 sacks and 16 passes defended was ridiculous, especially when a PD is essentially a sack for 0 yards plus a clock stoppage. I believe it affects future QB accuracy when you can't get a pass off beyond the LOS.

Forced fumbles numbers are also ridiculous, on a per game basis he's ahead of Demarcus Ware and Reggie and on par with Von Miller and Julius Peppers.

But beyond those numbers he has been the most impactful defensive player of his era, teams had to gameplan specifically to stop him.

What I love most are his instincts, this guy is a football player first and like Reggie could play anywhere on the DL and dominated whether in a 4-3 or 3-4.
 

Genghis Khan

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1st ballot IMO.

5 time all pro, unanimous all decade player for the 2010's and the guy's not done yet. Super leader on and off the field too. Before his injuries, I was ranking him equal to impact with Reggie White, who IMO is the gold standard.

He changed the game from a Passes Defended perspective for DL. Others had done this of course to lesser degrees (go Too Tall!), but Watt blew those folks away. His 2012 season with 20.5 sacks and 16 passes defended was ridiculous, especially when a PD is essentially a sack for 0 yards plus a clock stoppage. I believe it affects future QB accuracy when you can't get a pass off beyond the LOS.

Forced fumbles numbers are also ridiculous, on a per game basis he's ahead of Demarcus Ware and Reggie and on par with Von Miller and Julius Peppers.

But beyond those numbers he has been the most impactful defensive player of his era, teams had to gameplan specifically to stop him.

What I love most are his instincts, this guy is a football player first and like Reggie could play anywhere on the DL and dominated whether in a 4-3 or 3-4.
Props. I think I disagree at least with him being first ballot at the moment, but you're not wrong.

My only argument, and admittedly it's specious, is that his elite production came in a pretty small window compared to most Hall of famers.

But those 4 or so years were so dominant is hard to argue against it.
 

Texas Ace

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@Genghis Khan

I think he's 1st ballot.

If Gale Sayers and later Terrell Davis got in, then he definitely belongs.

Watt put together arguably the most dominant run by a defensive player ever and that's no exaggeration.

Before he came along, Richard Seymour was considered the elite 3-4 pass rusher at the DE position, and he was an 8 sack a year guy at most. He hit that mark twice and was usually around 5 most other years.

Watt obliterated those numbers. He's got multiple 20 sack seasons! Not as a 4-3 DE or as a 3-4 OLB, but as a 3-4 DE. That to go along with a 16.5 and 17 sack seasons.

I'd have to look it up, but is there any NFL player with that 4 season total?

On top of that, he was also one of the best run stoppers in football.

So while his peak was roughly only 4 years (2012-2015) , it was so dominant that I think those coupled with another dominant rebound year in 2018 and 2 other solid seasons is enough to get him in.

He's the greatest defensive player of the decade, and if you can be that, you absolutely get in to the HOF.
 

Chocolate Lab

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Before he came along, Richard Seymour was considered the elite 3-4 pass rusher at the DE position, and he was an 8 sack a year guy at most. He hit that mark twice and was usually around 5 most other years.

Watt obliterated those numbers. He's got multiple 20 sack seasons! Not as a 4-3 DE or as a 3-4 OLB, but as a 3-4 DE. That to go along with a 16.5 and 17 sack seasons.

I'd have to look it up, but is there any NFL player with that 4 season total?
Without looking it up, Bruce Smith? (As a 34 DE.)

But yeah, Watt was amazing when he was rolling.
 

Texas Ace

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Without looking it up, Bruce Smith? (As a 34 DE.)

But yeah, Watt was amazing when he was rolling.
That seemed like a good guess so I decided to look it up.

Smith's top 4 sack seasons were 19, 15, 14, and 14. That total comes to 62.

Watt's top 4 seasons are 20.5, 20.5, 17.5, and 16. Good enough for 74.5.
 

ravidubey

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That seemed like a good guess so I decided to look it up.

Smith's top 4 sack seasons were 19, 15, 14, and 14. That total comes to 62.

Watt's top 4 seasons are 20.5, 20.5, 17.5, and 16. Good enough for 74.5.
Or most of another double digit sack season.

Most great non QB players are only dominant fir 4-5 years max. We are just used to seeing these future HOFers pad an extra 5-10 normal years on top.

While longevity is a commendable thing, the HOF is about excellence on the field.

Had Emmitt Smith played 25 average seasons where he never dominated the league, never traded rushing titles with Barry Sanders, and never won multiple rings but still gained the rushing title, he might have gotten some begrudging HOF votes but would not be in Canton.

Canton is much more about those great years
 

P_T

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Or most of another double digit sack season.

Most great non QB players are only dominant fir 4-5 years max. We are just used to seeing these future HOFers pad an extra 5-10 normal years on top.

While longevity is a commendable thing, the HOF is about excellence on the field.

Had Emmitt Smith played 25 average seasons where he never dominated the league, never traded rushing titles with Barry Sanders, and never won multiple rings but still gained the rushing title, he might have gotten some begrudging HOF votes but would not be in Canton.

Canton is much more about those great years
Sooo... Frank Gore, HoF'er?
 

NoDak

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Sooo... Frank Gore, HoF'er?
I don't think so. He had 1 all pro type season, two seasons right at 1200 yards, and a metric shit ton of average and below average ones. Career avg at 4.3 ypc. 1 season with double digit TDs. He has been a good back, and has had a good career. And has had some incredible staying power. But I just don't think HOF caliber when I think Frank Gore.

But, saying all that, he'll probably make it eventually. Played a long time and compiled high career yardage. Playing ten years in San Francisco will certainly help.
 

data

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Watt - 1st ballot. Not even a discussion amongst the voters. Quality, not quantity Earl Campbell-esque, who was named 100 All-Time Team for only five seasons. Watt 1st ballot lock bolstered by his Payton Man of Year contribution.

Gore - Shouldn’t and won’t. I trust the voters here. If he does, then Philip Rivers and essentially Steve Smith should be HOF, too. I disagree with Jerome Bettis being a HOFer but Bettis is more deserving than Gore. But then again, long career Marcus Allen’s a HOFer, too.

Andre Johnson - Interesting case to watch. In a tough group with Torry Holt, Reggie Wayne. what’s tough is if one goes, then shouldn’t all three go...but is three from this era too many? Hines Ward and Steve Smith are no, but Ward has been getting love from the HOF voters.
 
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data

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The same voters that still haven't put Darren Woodson in and waited 30+ years to get Person in. Yeah, I don't trust the voters.
Also Harvey Martin, Charlie Waters and took forever for Cliff Harris as well.
Furthermore, Bullet Hayes posthumously but Jerruh promptly. F’n assholes, the lot of them. I get it.

but Gore wasn’t a Steeler and he’s going to be compared to Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch. No comparison there with memorable runs/legacy. I just have to hope the voters have a cutoff somewhere and it’s at Edgerrin James.

However, Gore was named to the 2010 All-Decade Team; Woodson wasn’t named to the 90s Team and LeRoy Butler, who is All-Decade with more flashy INTs, hasn’t been inducted, either.
 
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