Sturm: What should be expected of the Cowboys’ 2021 free-agency class? History says ‘not much’

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
120,043



By Bob Sturm 3h ago

As we race through the final few weeks before training camp, I thought we should address the last few names who have not received much analysis since they were brought in by the Cowboys during the unrestricted-free-agent signing period.

In particular, what sort of role should be expected from the three newly signed veteran defensive linemen, Brent Urban, Tarell Basham and Carlos Watkins?
But before we should do that, I think we should look at a historical trend from the Cowboys front office.


The last significant multi-year free-agent signing in Dallas is open for debate, because it does come down to what we would define as a “major signing” by league standards. For years, we have heard how much money the Cowboys make annually and the rising value of the franchise relative to every single other franchise in worldwide sports (Forbes has listed them annually as the most valuable sports franchise in the world), but at the same time they have never really been able to push that into untold big-money signings or the roster one would expect from that competitive advantage. With the hard cap on the NFL to encourage parity, there is simply no massive roster advantage to all of the millions. Thus, the ownership family can forever invest in helicopters, artwork and yachts — three things that seldom lead to more wins, despite the profits.

The biggest unrestricted-free-agent signing in the past decade is clearly the 2012 signing of Kansas City cornerback Brandon Carr to a five-year, $50 million deal. The second biggest? Well, if the rule is that it must be a multi-year deal, then it might be the pretty tame four-year, $17 million to Cedric Thornton in 2016. Thornton then played 291 snaps with the team in getting his $9 million in guaranteed money before his release the following September. It was a disaster.

If our bar is not a multi-year deal, then we might look to the one-year, $11.3 million deal for Greg Hardy in 2015, which also turned quickly into a far more predictable disaster given the Cowboys signed him off the NFL suspension list.

The decade before did include large and splashy signings such as La’Roi Glover, Drew Bledsoe, Terrell Owens and Leonard Davis, but the Cowboys never really felt they hit it big on many of those, so they began to build their roster like the more stable franchises.

Thus, they do still spend lots of money on contracts, as anyone who follows the league would attest, but it seems this generation of Cowboys football has adhered to a very successful league model of using your income to “sign your own,” as we have seen over the past decade.

Whether it is Dak Prescott, Dez Bryant, DeMarcus Lawrence, Tony Romo, Zack Martin, Tyron Smith, Ezekiel Elliott, Travis Frederick or Jaylon Smith, every time they write a new and large contract that grabs top billing in the NFL news cycle, it has come from “re-signing” one of their homegrown guys (Amari Cooper was the rare exception). And that is more than OK.


But then what became of the Cowboys in free agency?

I suspect most Cowboys fans intuitively know this, but the team’s shift in how it does business has largely affected the types of signings it is willing to do every year when free agency opens. The Cowboys are certainly thought of as a team that wants to be the New York Yankees or Real Madrid and money-whip to the top, but that is not how the NFL works. They simply cannot sign those homegrown players to their big deals and then turn around and get into a bidding war in March with teams that have all the cap room because their rosters are bare. You cannot compete with Jacksonville’s roster sheet from a few months ago, because the Jaguars barely had a roster at all. New England moved out its entire core to accommodate its surprising free agency in 2021, too. Dallas had to move things around just to stay compliant.

That means the Cowboys’ entire free-agent philosophy — especially in March, when prices are competitively high — has shifted since Carr’s signing nine years ago to two simple rules:

1. The free-agency cost must be very low — near the league minimum in money for a minimum number of years.

2. The objective is to take players who will ease the desperation on draft night to fill holes that require attention.

The second one is what really matters. It is clear in the era that has put Will McClay front and center in the draft room that the whole goal in March is to let the dust settle from the highly coveted “top 50” free agents and to look for ways to chop down the list of needs before the Cowboys have to go drafting.

If we don’t ever wish to draft for need and want to take the best football players possible, then you can’t be squirming about entering the season in three months without depth at this spot or that one. It is short-sighted, and because needs switch so quickly in this sport, you are advised to never worry about needs before the back half of a draft. Yes, sometimes the best player is at a spot where you can put him right in the mix — Dallas has had cornerback high for quite a while around here — but that is what free agency has become. If push comes to shove, Dallas can start Damontae Kazee on opening night and not worry about pushing safeties up the board to compensate. Smart teams fill holes before they know they even exist. It is the developmental side of roster building that separates the top teams from the others. And Dallas has been chasing this for quite a while.

Now, does that mean that the Cowboys’ free-agent signings generally disappoint? Yes, they do. But is that sort of the design? It seems so. They don’t spend anything anymore in free agency — their total spending over the past five seasons is at the very bottom of the league, and so is the return. The theory, though, is that this approach improves depth and allows them to put more into drafting. And, as you are surely ready to say, that is where the issues have been more problematic. But that is also a different day’s topic. This one is what we should expect from Brent Urban and Tarrell Basham. Basically, let’s look at the past five years and you will have your answer.

Cowboys' free-agent signings, 2016-2020


YEAR
PLAYER
YEAR 1 SNAPS
2016Benson Mayowa406
2016Cedric Thornton291
2016Alfred Morris130
2017Byron Bell243
2017Stephen Paea145
2017Nolan Carroll82
2017Damontre Moore58
2018Allen Hurns454
2018Cam Fleming240
2018Deonte Thompson170
2018Joe Thomas62
2018Kony Ealy0
2019Randall Cobb720
2019Christian Covington481
2019Kerry Hyder439
2019George Iloka0
2020Greg ZuerleinNot Applicable
2020Aldon Smith809
2020Blake Bell359
2020Dontari Poe267
2020Gerald McCoy0
2020Haha Clinton Dix0
2020Maurice Canady0

Above are all of the free-agent signings of the past five years that have fallen in March or April, in the window between the start of the signing period and draft night. Almost all free agents are signed here, and you will quickly see that Dallas has been plenty active but that only two players have played even 500 snaps in their first season in Dallas. A full-time player in the NFL plays between 750 and 1,000 snaps, so 500 is a low bar of achievement. Only Randall Cobb in 2019 and Aldon Smith in 2020 cleared it. And both were on one-year deals and quickly exited stage left when that year expired.

A few others, such as Kerry Hyder and Allen Hurns, played a role of some level, but it wasn’t much. And look at all of the players — Kony Ealy, George Iloka, Gerald McCoy, and Haha Clinton Dix — who were all worthy of lengthy discussions in this very place and never even took one snap with the team!

The inability to get even one 500-snap player from the entire free-agent classes of 2016, 2017 and 2018 is ridiculous. We hope it helped them make smarter decisions on draft night, but the 2017 draft was horrendous and 2018 can go either way at the moment. How Mike McCarthy and his crew have affected this philosophy is a good question, and we know the hiring of Dan Quinn means we shouldn’t assume that just because Nolan Carroll and Stephen Paea ended up being nothing in 2017 that Dallas won’t get more out of Keanu Neal and Brent Urban. I have already written quite a few pieces on the Falcons who have been brought over with Quinn. Here are my thoughts on Neal, and here are some more on Kazee. So let’s wrap this up with a quick summary of the three defensive players the Cowboys signed in the opening month of free agency this year whom I haven’t already spent substantial time on.

DT Brent Urban, 30: Early in free agency, Dallas put $1.75 million guaranteed in 2021 on Urban to join the team from Chicago, and he is expected to really help on early run downs in occupying blockers and allowing the linebackers more space. I think the drafting of Osa Odighizuwa will affect how much Urban we will see at some point, but for now, this is the big man I am most interested in seeing, and I think he will get 25-30 snaps a game this year. He is a very solid player for that money.

DT Carlos Watkins, 27: Watkins was given just $400,000 in guaranteed money but will get the same $1.75 million for 2021 if he makes the team to play inside next to Urban. He played a pretty big role with Houston last year, but his general impact will be determined in training camp. I do think he is a candidate to make a difference, for sure. But he is also a guy who will need to secure his roster spot in August. His spot seems slightly less secure than that of Urban, and the Day 3 drafting of Quinton Bohanna probably made him a bit nervous.

Edge Tarell Basham, 27: This one is worth keeping an eye on. Basham actually got two years for $5.5 million with almost $4 million guaranteed, and he does fall in a spot where the team has its starters on the edge in DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory. But behind them are a bunch of names that seem difficult to place into order. Iowa’s Chauncey Golston should have an inside track at one spot, but with Bradlee Anae, Dorance Armstrong and a few other names, Basham seems the most likely to make a real impact. He played more than 700 snaps last year for the Jets, and though his production was such that he didn’t have many great offers, he projects to be a real solid third or fourth edge who should make plays and cover for injuries. I think he is a sleeper acquisition.

The goal was to get to the draft without glaring needs and just keep taking the best defender available. The Cowboys then took six consecutive defenders to open their draft, and it sure looks like they did a very nice job. But these three all have a chance to quietly supplement the kids in that now-normal Dallas way of doing free agency. Under the radar and sifting through the bargain bin.
 

boozeman

28 Years And Counting...
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
122,448
Watkins is as good as out the door if any of the DTs show promise. I don't see him as an impactful tweener even though how he has been sold.
 

Shiningstar

DCC 4Life
Joined
Mar 10, 2020
Messages
959
nothing is to be expected. we are hoping Parsons is all we dream he can be. the rest is up to the coaches, i dont care if we have good players who arent doing their jobs or doing stupid stuff on the field. we need to get at the qbs, and make a few plays that matter per drive, other than that, really dont care, our season is not going to be won or lost on the success of the draft. we have way bigger problems.
 

Cowboysrock55

Super Moderator
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
52,639
Watkins is as good as out the door if any of the DTs show promise. I don't see him as an impactful tweener even though how he has been sold.
I think Urban will be a solid rotational type piece. The rest are blind swings at mediocre talent.
 

Simpleton

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 8, 2013
Messages
17,479
I liked the Neal, Urban and Basham signings, as well as Kazee to a lesser extent. But here's the problem, what if we hit on any (or all) of these guys?

Basham is the only one signed for more than a year, if Neal has a Pro Bowl year or Kazee bounces back big time from his injury are they going to pony up to keep them next offseason?

By constantly cycling through bargain bin types on 1 year deals you're more or less resigned to always being in that churn, and if you're willing to pay up for a guy like Neal if he blows up, why not go after a legitimate FA every now and again?
 

Genghis Khan

The worst version of myself
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
37,714
I liked the Neal, Urban and Basham signings, as well as Kazee to a lesser extent. But here's the problem, what if we hit on any (or all) of these guys?

Basham is the only one signed for more than a year, if Neal has a Pro Bowl year or Kazee bounces back big time from his injury are they going to pony up to keep them next offseason?

By constantly cycling through bargain bin types on 1 year deals you're more or less resigned to always being in that churn, and if you're willing to pay up for a guy like Neal if he blows up, why not go after a legitimate FA every now and again?

I think Kazee has a better chance to return by playing well.

I think no matter how well Neal plays, whether he comes back is at least in part dependent on how Parsons and LVE play.

Kazee, there's almost no alternative other than either resigning him or dipping into FA for someone else.
 

ravidubey

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
20,204
Urban at age 30 might show signs of breaking down. He’s around the same age as Jason Ferguson when he signed in 2005, and Fergy had a solid impact at first then began to wear down.

Key IMO willl be spelling him for long stretches with QB:)
 

Genghis Khan

The worst version of myself
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
37,714
Urban at age 30 might show signs of breaking down. He’s around the same age as Jason Ferguson when he signed in 2005, and Fergy had a solid impact at first then began to wear down.

Key IMO willl be spelling him for long stretches with QB:)

Get him on the roids, he'll be fine.
 
Top Bottom