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By Bob Sturm Jan 13, 2020
On Sunday night, we saw the final ticket punched into the respective conference title games. Only four teams remain in pursuit of Super Bowl LIV. For the 28 teams watching from home, the offseason has officially arrived.
This means that one week from today, players, coaches, scouts and agents will all descend upon Mobile, Alabama for the Senior Bowl. But that can’t happen until we wrap up the end of the college football season — and Monday night’s title game features two teams absolutely loaded with elite NFL draft talent: Clemson and LSU.
The Cowboys have so much on their plate right now that they can barely stop to eat. They have to be in Mobile in one week but are assembling and building a brand new coaching staff, evaluating the roster (so they know what they don’t have) and surely looking at their own extensive list of free agents internally to realize that there is plenty of work to do. There are so many questions to ask about what schemes they are leaning towards on both sides of the ball and other internal decisions that will shape every question being thrown at them. The proverbial treadmill has been turned to the top speed as Mike McCarthy and his new band of men try to catch up in the blink of an eye.
Tonight’s game in New Orleans is going to be very big in helping them reach some conclusions.
Here at The Athletic, as you know, we have assembled many of the best and brightest to help us through the draft season, starting with the great Dane Brugler. A fantastic place for you to start today is Dane’s latest Top 100 prospect list — I know I did — and that will set the scene for your viewing of a few players very much on my radar for the Cowboys. Of course, that is really putting the cart before the horse, so let’s hold off on names for a few paragraphs and show you the considerable work the Cowboys have to do with their own roster. Nothing is worse than buying a 24-pack of toilet paper only to find out your wife already did the same thing. You definitely don’t have enough draft picks in the red-meat section of the draft for redundancies. Therefore, let’s attempt to identify those items pushed up Dallas’ list.
OFFENSE:
The Cowboys have some work to do, but if we agree that their offense is pretty darn salty — and in a vacuum, they might want to bring everyone back — the issues are more for the business office. The unrestricted free agents bear big price tags, though, and you can expect the Cowboys might need to use the franchise tag and perhaps the transition tag this offseason to keep Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper away from free agency. Those two players will definitely consume much of their open salary-cap space.
The offensive line is almost entirely intact, with all of the “starters” under contract. The August extension of La’el Collins was somewhat surprising, but it’s nice to know they don’t have to worry about that as Collins responded to his new financial security with one of his best seasons. Connors Williams and McGovern will be ready to compete for left guard; one should start, and the other will be a very capable backup. Joe Looney and Xavier Su’a-Filo are both unrestricted free agents, and I should think Dallas will want to keep one of them. They also have a team option on Cam Fleming but might want to find a cheaper and younger third tackle. Everything else on the offensive line is secure — which makes it the wild exception in this exercise.
QB1 is an unrestricted free agent and that is a pretty big deal, because I am not sure anyone wants to see what Cooper Rush can do, and he is the only other quarterback Dallas has under contract. Even that is somewhat dicey as he is a restricted free agent — not to mention I have hoped they would upgrade backup QB for a few years. The running backs are doing well for the next while, to offer you a massive understatement, but here is where it gets weird.
Pass catchers are a real challenge looking ahead. The only wide receivers under contract right now are Michael Gallup, Devin Smith, Noah Brown, Cedrick Wilson and Ventell Bryant. No disrespect to that group, but Amari Cooper, Randall Cobb and Tavon Austin either need extensions, or they will be playing for someone else next year. That is a significant issue. And not the only one, because Jason Witten is unrestricted (and perhaps a coach) while Blake Jarwin is restricted, which leaves only Dalton Schultz.
When you look at the draft, it would seem that the Cowboys should strongly consider a play on a big-time wide receiver or tight end this spring. One of those positions is loaded, and nearly every draft counts wide receiver as a deep crop; 2020 is no exception. But tight ends are pretty light at the top after 2019 offered several who could jump right in and start. This group does not appear to have many — or possibly any — of those.
DEFENSE:
The other side of the ball is far more complicated as we look internally. First, we must realize that the defense was not good enough in 2019, and therefore, regardless of contracts, look to improve on what already exists. If the Cowboys brought all 11 starters back on offense, they might be fine. If they do the same on defense, it would be a disappointment. They must add talent here, in my estimation — which will apply to our viewing this evening. But let’s continue to look at what they under contract in each department.
The defensive line is a huge question mark. Under contract are the following: DeMarcus Lawrence, Antwaun Woods (exclusive rights FA) and a bunch of guys. Dorance Armstrong, Joe Jackson, Trysten Hill and Daniel Wise are the youngsters under contract with Tyrone Crawford a cap question and “Who Knows, Part 7” on Randy Gregory. That means the following players have no contracts at all: Robert Quinn, Michael Bennett, Kerry Hyder, Maliek Collins and Christian Covington. That, my friends, is an issue. We could argue about how good the line was last year and stay busy, but with that many key players out of deals, they have a ton of work to do here.
Their linebackers are Jaylon Smith, Leighton Vander Esch (neck injury, pending) and Chris Covington. Otherwise, Joe Thomas, Sean Lee, Malcolm Smith, Justin March, and Ray Ray Armstrong are all unrestricted. Dallas will absolutely need some bodies, but Day 3 is probably the target there, as well as trying to sign a few of these players on cheaper deals. Of course, this is all pending a full evaluation of Vander Esch, which requires time Dallas may not have.
And then we have the defensive backs. Byron Jones, Jeff Heath and Anthony Brown are all unrestricted free agents — three of the five preferred starters back there. Backups Kavon Frazier, Darian Thompson and CJ Goodwin are all UFAs, too. That means only the class of 2017 — Chido Awuzie, Jourdan Lewis, and Xavier Woods — remains, along with young Donovans Wilson and Olumba.
As you can see, there are plenty of issues on the defense. The Cowboys have a ton moving parts and, again, we aren’t sure how much they want to do differently in 2020 with Mike Nolan. We know for a fact they wanted an overhaul of defensive philosophy, so this many players being untethered to the roster might actually allow them to transition more seamlessly to a different approach. But helping players out the door requires bringing in some premium talent immediately. And that is the real trick, now, isn’t it?
We don’t know, aside from our presumed belief that Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper are both Tier 1 priorities, what would be the next level of great interest. Is Byron Jones going to look for Xavien Howard money (five years, $75 million) or would he be OK with a Marcus Peters-type deal (three years/$42 million)? What do the Cowboys do with Robert Quinn? Would they lock him down coming off the second-best sack season of his career as he turns 30? If so, what would that even cost? Proven edge rushers are certainly not cheap, but rookie edge rushers are rarely Year 1 dominators unless you are picking in the Top 5. The Cowboys are not.
If I am tasked with listing my positions of greatest concern — assuming Prescott and Cooper are retained — I think the Cowboys’ shopping list currently has to look like this:
Safety
Defensive tackle
Defensive end
Cornerback
Tight end
Wide receiver
With those six spots on our list and the draft 101 days away, we can absolutely change the order based on what is available both in free agency and the draft.
The Cowboys’ first-round pick is No. 17, their second selection is No. 52 and their third is 82nd. After that, the compensatory picks leave the specific spot of all Day 3 picks up in the air. We should absolutely be prepared for the Cowboys to add a starter of great regard in the first round to probably assist this defense, unless a dynamic receiver is still sitting there. Side note on that: The Cowboys are in a weird spot at receiver because free agency precedes the draft in the NFL. (I have been trying to get this changed for years to match the NBA/NHL, which more sensibly hold the draft before free agency). In other words, the Cowboys will have to make up their minds on Amari Cooper and Randall Cobb before the draft. If you retain them both, then you will want to address the defense. If you do not retain them both, then your desperation at WR might outweigh your defense’s needs.
That said, Brugler wrote up tonight’s matchup in his own piece and has absolutely been studying these players much longer than I have. So let’s look at that and allow me to use his descriptions to prepare you for our homework tonight. Here are the players from his piece I really love as potential picks at #17:
*Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson (6-3, 228, 4.47)
Clemson’s defense isn’t the dominant unit it was last year (four defenders drafted in the top-40 last April), but Simmons is a difference-maker. A true four-down player, he can blitz, play the run, cover in the slot and play special teams – and do it all at a high level. Simmons will be one of the first defensive players drafted in April.
*K’Lavon Chaisson, EDGE, LSU (6-3, 239, 4.64)
Athletes who can get after the quarterback will always be coveted by NFL teams. And although Chaisson must get stronger and diversify his rush attack, he displays impressive edge speed to stress blockers, converting his first step quickness to power.
*Grant Delpit, DS, LSU (6-2, 206, 4.56)
Despite winning the Thorpe Award as the nation’s top defensive back, Delpit did not have the 2019 season that many expected, especially vs. the run (22 missed tackles). But an ankle injury is partially to blame and his range and instincts in coverage are still desirable traits, making him worthy of a mid-to-late first round pick.
Simmons or Delpit would both be the game-changer at safety that you have been looking for. (Simmons is listed as a linebacker, but plays quite a bit in the secondary as well.) They are different players, for sure, but Clemson and LSU both have blue-chip players who would be fantastic to add at that safety spot. Chaisson is an edge rusher who has been more than impressive this season and might make you think long and hard about ways to improve this defense.
To be fair, they could all be long gone by pick No. 17, so what you are looking for with someone like Delpit — and I am certainly ready to turn in his card right now — is to play well enough to make you feel good about him but not so well that he is off the board before you get there. I believe Simmons is very unlikely to be available at No. 17, personally. But we are 101 days away and many things can happen.
My annual draft digests will be starting on Super Bowl week, and I will get to work on all of the top 60 prospects and how they fit the Cowboys or their rivals. In the meantime, we have plenty of names to collect and players to sort through. That process begins tonight in the Superdome.
Enjoy it!
On Sunday night, we saw the final ticket punched into the respective conference title games. Only four teams remain in pursuit of Super Bowl LIV. For the 28 teams watching from home, the offseason has officially arrived.
This means that one week from today, players, coaches, scouts and agents will all descend upon Mobile, Alabama for the Senior Bowl. But that can’t happen until we wrap up the end of the college football season — and Monday night’s title game features two teams absolutely loaded with elite NFL draft talent: Clemson and LSU.
The Cowboys have so much on their plate right now that they can barely stop to eat. They have to be in Mobile in one week but are assembling and building a brand new coaching staff, evaluating the roster (so they know what they don’t have) and surely looking at their own extensive list of free agents internally to realize that there is plenty of work to do. There are so many questions to ask about what schemes they are leaning towards on both sides of the ball and other internal decisions that will shape every question being thrown at them. The proverbial treadmill has been turned to the top speed as Mike McCarthy and his new band of men try to catch up in the blink of an eye.
Tonight’s game in New Orleans is going to be very big in helping them reach some conclusions.
Here at The Athletic, as you know, we have assembled many of the best and brightest to help us through the draft season, starting with the great Dane Brugler. A fantastic place for you to start today is Dane’s latest Top 100 prospect list — I know I did — and that will set the scene for your viewing of a few players very much on my radar for the Cowboys. Of course, that is really putting the cart before the horse, so let’s hold off on names for a few paragraphs and show you the considerable work the Cowboys have to do with their own roster. Nothing is worse than buying a 24-pack of toilet paper only to find out your wife already did the same thing. You definitely don’t have enough draft picks in the red-meat section of the draft for redundancies. Therefore, let’s attempt to identify those items pushed up Dallas’ list.
OFFENSE:
The Cowboys have some work to do, but if we agree that their offense is pretty darn salty — and in a vacuum, they might want to bring everyone back — the issues are more for the business office. The unrestricted free agents bear big price tags, though, and you can expect the Cowboys might need to use the franchise tag and perhaps the transition tag this offseason to keep Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper away from free agency. Those two players will definitely consume much of their open salary-cap space.
The offensive line is almost entirely intact, with all of the “starters” under contract. The August extension of La’el Collins was somewhat surprising, but it’s nice to know they don’t have to worry about that as Collins responded to his new financial security with one of his best seasons. Connors Williams and McGovern will be ready to compete for left guard; one should start, and the other will be a very capable backup. Joe Looney and Xavier Su’a-Filo are both unrestricted free agents, and I should think Dallas will want to keep one of them. They also have a team option on Cam Fleming but might want to find a cheaper and younger third tackle. Everything else on the offensive line is secure — which makes it the wild exception in this exercise.
QB1 is an unrestricted free agent and that is a pretty big deal, because I am not sure anyone wants to see what Cooper Rush can do, and he is the only other quarterback Dallas has under contract. Even that is somewhat dicey as he is a restricted free agent — not to mention I have hoped they would upgrade backup QB for a few years. The running backs are doing well for the next while, to offer you a massive understatement, but here is where it gets weird.
Pass catchers are a real challenge looking ahead. The only wide receivers under contract right now are Michael Gallup, Devin Smith, Noah Brown, Cedrick Wilson and Ventell Bryant. No disrespect to that group, but Amari Cooper, Randall Cobb and Tavon Austin either need extensions, or they will be playing for someone else next year. That is a significant issue. And not the only one, because Jason Witten is unrestricted (and perhaps a coach) while Blake Jarwin is restricted, which leaves only Dalton Schultz.
When you look at the draft, it would seem that the Cowboys should strongly consider a play on a big-time wide receiver or tight end this spring. One of those positions is loaded, and nearly every draft counts wide receiver as a deep crop; 2020 is no exception. But tight ends are pretty light at the top after 2019 offered several who could jump right in and start. This group does not appear to have many — or possibly any — of those.
DEFENSE:
The other side of the ball is far more complicated as we look internally. First, we must realize that the defense was not good enough in 2019, and therefore, regardless of contracts, look to improve on what already exists. If the Cowboys brought all 11 starters back on offense, they might be fine. If they do the same on defense, it would be a disappointment. They must add talent here, in my estimation — which will apply to our viewing this evening. But let’s continue to look at what they under contract in each department.
The defensive line is a huge question mark. Under contract are the following: DeMarcus Lawrence, Antwaun Woods (exclusive rights FA) and a bunch of guys. Dorance Armstrong, Joe Jackson, Trysten Hill and Daniel Wise are the youngsters under contract with Tyrone Crawford a cap question and “Who Knows, Part 7” on Randy Gregory. That means the following players have no contracts at all: Robert Quinn, Michael Bennett, Kerry Hyder, Maliek Collins and Christian Covington. That, my friends, is an issue. We could argue about how good the line was last year and stay busy, but with that many key players out of deals, they have a ton of work to do here.
Their linebackers are Jaylon Smith, Leighton Vander Esch (neck injury, pending) and Chris Covington. Otherwise, Joe Thomas, Sean Lee, Malcolm Smith, Justin March, and Ray Ray Armstrong are all unrestricted. Dallas will absolutely need some bodies, but Day 3 is probably the target there, as well as trying to sign a few of these players on cheaper deals. Of course, this is all pending a full evaluation of Vander Esch, which requires time Dallas may not have.
And then we have the defensive backs. Byron Jones, Jeff Heath and Anthony Brown are all unrestricted free agents — three of the five preferred starters back there. Backups Kavon Frazier, Darian Thompson and CJ Goodwin are all UFAs, too. That means only the class of 2017 — Chido Awuzie, Jourdan Lewis, and Xavier Woods — remains, along with young Donovans Wilson and Olumba.
As you can see, there are plenty of issues on the defense. The Cowboys have a ton moving parts and, again, we aren’t sure how much they want to do differently in 2020 with Mike Nolan. We know for a fact they wanted an overhaul of defensive philosophy, so this many players being untethered to the roster might actually allow them to transition more seamlessly to a different approach. But helping players out the door requires bringing in some premium talent immediately. And that is the real trick, now, isn’t it?
We don’t know, aside from our presumed belief that Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper are both Tier 1 priorities, what would be the next level of great interest. Is Byron Jones going to look for Xavien Howard money (five years, $75 million) or would he be OK with a Marcus Peters-type deal (three years/$42 million)? What do the Cowboys do with Robert Quinn? Would they lock him down coming off the second-best sack season of his career as he turns 30? If so, what would that even cost? Proven edge rushers are certainly not cheap, but rookie edge rushers are rarely Year 1 dominators unless you are picking in the Top 5. The Cowboys are not.
If I am tasked with listing my positions of greatest concern — assuming Prescott and Cooper are retained — I think the Cowboys’ shopping list currently has to look like this:
Safety
Defensive tackle
Defensive end
Cornerback
Tight end
Wide receiver
With those six spots on our list and the draft 101 days away, we can absolutely change the order based on what is available both in free agency and the draft.
The Cowboys’ first-round pick is No. 17, their second selection is No. 52 and their third is 82nd. After that, the compensatory picks leave the specific spot of all Day 3 picks up in the air. We should absolutely be prepared for the Cowboys to add a starter of great regard in the first round to probably assist this defense, unless a dynamic receiver is still sitting there. Side note on that: The Cowboys are in a weird spot at receiver because free agency precedes the draft in the NFL. (I have been trying to get this changed for years to match the NBA/NHL, which more sensibly hold the draft before free agency). In other words, the Cowboys will have to make up their minds on Amari Cooper and Randall Cobb before the draft. If you retain them both, then you will want to address the defense. If you do not retain them both, then your desperation at WR might outweigh your defense’s needs.
That said, Brugler wrote up tonight’s matchup in his own piece and has absolutely been studying these players much longer than I have. So let’s look at that and allow me to use his descriptions to prepare you for our homework tonight. Here are the players from his piece I really love as potential picks at #17:
*Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson (6-3, 228, 4.47)
Clemson’s defense isn’t the dominant unit it was last year (four defenders drafted in the top-40 last April), but Simmons is a difference-maker. A true four-down player, he can blitz, play the run, cover in the slot and play special teams – and do it all at a high level. Simmons will be one of the first defensive players drafted in April.
*K’Lavon Chaisson, EDGE, LSU (6-3, 239, 4.64)
Athletes who can get after the quarterback will always be coveted by NFL teams. And although Chaisson must get stronger and diversify his rush attack, he displays impressive edge speed to stress blockers, converting his first step quickness to power.
*Grant Delpit, DS, LSU (6-2, 206, 4.56)
Despite winning the Thorpe Award as the nation’s top defensive back, Delpit did not have the 2019 season that many expected, especially vs. the run (22 missed tackles). But an ankle injury is partially to blame and his range and instincts in coverage are still desirable traits, making him worthy of a mid-to-late first round pick.
Simmons or Delpit would both be the game-changer at safety that you have been looking for. (Simmons is listed as a linebacker, but plays quite a bit in the secondary as well.) They are different players, for sure, but Clemson and LSU both have blue-chip players who would be fantastic to add at that safety spot. Chaisson is an edge rusher who has been more than impressive this season and might make you think long and hard about ways to improve this defense.
To be fair, they could all be long gone by pick No. 17, so what you are looking for with someone like Delpit — and I am certainly ready to turn in his card right now — is to play well enough to make you feel good about him but not so well that he is off the board before you get there. I believe Simmons is very unlikely to be available at No. 17, personally. But we are 101 days away and many things can happen.
My annual draft digests will be starting on Super Bowl week, and I will get to work on all of the top 60 prospects and how they fit the Cowboys or their rivals. In the meantime, we have plenty of names to collect and players to sort through. That process begins tonight in the Superdome.
Enjoy it!