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The Zimmer Report - Ravens Run Dallas
We are quickly running out of answers on whom to blame for defensive mess.
Bob Sturm
Sep 25, 2024
Here we go. Our objectives today will be:
The defensive effort against Baltimore
We know now that all of our talk in the buildup to Week 3 was not very grounded in reality. I expected a resounding response to the New Orleans debacle, and it very much went the wrong way, and it started immediately.
They gave up three explosive runs (10 yards or more) against the Browns. They gave up five to the Saints. And then, in a supposed response to what the Saints did to them, they gave up ten explosive runs against the Ravens.
They cannot stop the run right now, and it appears to get worse with each passing week. With Dallas now ranked 32nd in rushing per game and 32nd in rushing per play, we should prepare that every opponent coming up will simply study these 18 explosive runs and build their game plan accordingly.
The Ravens had 161 rush yards before contact and 113 rush yards after contact in this game – in which the Cowboys were charged with 17 missed tackles.
Yes, you heard this correctly: The Cowboys allowed 161 yards before contact and then missed 17 tackles to allow 113 yards after contact.
Guys, I try not to say this lightly: this is as bad as it gets.
They ran for 274 yards against Dallas in one game. It was the 7th worst beating on the ground – EVER – against the Cowboys. They took the Saints humiliation and might have made it worse.
Here is the Ravens first play. The very first play of the game:
This is the first explosive run of the game as Lamar Jackson keeps on a read option and he keeps as Micah dives down on Derrick Henry (more on that in a bit) and Lamar has the unflanked left to run for 12 yards without the slightest contact. None.
And, here we go again.
As you can see below, Baltimore gave the Dallas defense failing grades just about everywhere. All the red on this clipboard tells a story, but it probably could have been worse if the Ravens kept doing what they were doing to jump to a 28-6 lead.
Again, no sacks and no takeaways. The success rates for Baltimore overall at 52% are enough to lead the NFL for a season. The passing success rate is off the charts, as they hit 12.1 yards per attempt!
It would be difficult to decide which defensive game was worse. Was it the New Orleans game or the Baltimore game? You choose? And knowing the Saints scored touchdowns on their first six possessions, how could the Ravens game be just as bad?
Here is the drive chart:
People ask me constantly now, “is this on the players or on Mike Zimmer?”
Well, let’s just say that there is more than enough blame to go around. It looks like a very poorly coached defense that also has questionable effort and commitment to play the way they certainly should know how to play.
It is brutally bad.
How to destroy a destructive pass rush
Over the last two games, the Cowboys have one sack. Why? Because opponents are not passing the football. And why have they not passed the football? Because they don’t have to pass it when they are leading the entire game.
You may recall us talking about this last year, but for the benefit of those who are new to our operation, allow me a recap of some football truths.
There is no better way to stop a pass rush than to stop passing. Of course, that is not practical if you need points. So, step one is to take an early lead. As you know, the Saints and Ravens were both up 14-3 before the game had really even gotten moving.
Once you have a lead, you do everything on your terms. Punts are fine, but you never have to pass in “passing situations,” and those are where you face the most ferocious passing defenses. 3rd-and-long or coming from behind is when defenses stop caring about run responsibilities and “pin their ears back” and rush the passer.
This is where the Cowboys are at their best. You will see that clearly if you look at last season. What games were the Cowboys best at beating up a QB? When they were ahead early.
Let me show you some stats on when interceptions and sacks happen in the NFL. In 2023, there were 430 interceptions and 1,408 sacks in 33,902 plays throughout the league. Let’s divide those plays into two categories: Playing with either a lead, a tie, or a slight deficit (3 points or less) will be in one pile that consists of 69.3% of all snaps, and the other pile will be trailing by four points or more when the snap happens (30.7% of all snaps).
Playing from behind resulted in just 30% of all snaps — 12,737 — yet consisted of 51% of all interceptions (218) and 46% of all sacks (652).
Playing with a lead, tie, or slight deficit was 70% of the snaps — 23,510 — yet just 49% of all interceptions (212) and 54% of all sacks (756).
Why? Because when you are behind, you pass 70% of the time instead of about 55%. You are forced to take chances and hold the ball. And this is when Micah Parsons and friends can take over games.
So, people ask where Micah is in these games? Well, he is right where he always is, and he is still a clear and present danger. But, if you only face runs, it doesn’t matter how good your sack king is.
New Orleans and Baltimore have run 116 plays in the last two weeks. 84 of those plays are runs. 72.4% of the plays are runs. Most of the passes are early downs where they use play-action, and they look like runs. And why can they do this? Because they have the lead for 55 minutes a game and trail for 0 seconds.
You want to see which games you were frustrated about “where is Micah and the pass rush” from 2023?
And that, my friends, is why Mike McCarthy wanted to receive. He knows what happens to his pass rush when they fall behind. He has seen it all too often. And yes, Green Bay never trailed in that playoff game, either.
So, if you want to know where the pass rushers are in these games where they aren’t getting to the passer, first ask yourself, is the game allowing any pass rushers to rush the passer?
This is why coaches will always tell their team that rushing the passer is a privilege that you earn as a defense by stopping the run. You would have to be nuts to let Micah Parsons destroy your offense for no good reason.
The Read Option and the Scrape Exchange Mystery
Now, back to our debacle on Sunday. What you will see below is the Kevin Utz cutup of approximately 17 read-options from Sunday. I asked him to circle the read defender on each play. If you are wondering who that is, allow me to quickly explain.
A read option means you (the QB) are reading a defender. You are not blocking him, you are waiting for him to make a choice. The choice is to take the give (RB) or the keep (QB). When he chooses, the QB makes him wrong. So, the player in question is circled before each snap, and we think he is the read.
Now, you can use slow motion or not, here are those plays.
Now, it is very important not to assume the guy who is circled is the one expected to make the play. In fact, the whole point of the read-option is to make sure he doesn’t make the play. Occasionally, he might, but this concept has existed (and has for 100 years) to make him wrong. And that is why defenses have devised tactics to defeat it.
And that is why it is likely not a great idea to blame Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence as the ones who don’t know what they are doing. I have seen plenty of that and admit that, when watching it live, this is a quick assumption. But, it is probably wrong.
We think – and many others (see below) – submit that many of these plays are being defended with a very poorly run “scrape or gap exchange.” What is that?
What’s a scrape exchange: It’s a defensive concept that flips the roles of two backside defenders, thus covering both sides of a quarterback’s zone read. The guy the offense thinks it’s optioning, usually a defensive end, “crashes” (move horizontally across the line of scrimmage) and is “exchanged” for another defender, usually a linebacker, who “scrapes” to the area the end vacated.
Two very smart football men were looking at these plays from Sunday and had the same conclusion:
So, people want answers. Who is busting if it isn’t Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence? Well, sometimes, it probably is. But, the play at the very top looks like Eric Kendricks, to me. Then DeMarvion Overshown. Then Donovan Wilson. So, basically, the conclusion must be that if you run a concept and it is poorly executed to the tune of 159 yards in explosive runs, we must say it is Mike Zimmer.
This is where we are.
The Missed Tackles Epidemic
And then, to make matters even worse, they were not tackling well. In fact, they were not tackling well at all.
So, again, let’s show you. Kevin circled the missed tackles that PFF recorded on Sunday and this reel will take a while.
Just about everyone takes a turn. We can live with missed tackles if you are in the right gaps. We can live with a few wrong gaps if you are good at tackling. But, you can see right here that the spot they are in right now is that the team doesn’t know how to deploy players and then isn’t good at getting guys down.
I really wish DeMarvion Overshown were better at the physical components of playing linebacker, but right now, I fear it is his weakness. I don’t mean to single him out, but a lot of college football fans want him out there more, despite teams running right into the teeth of this defense. But, he is definitely not alone. Derrick Henry is not easy to tackle, but we have seen this for two straight weeks with everyone carrying the ball.
Looking at the All-22 film
To show mercy to us all, let’s look at a half-dozen snaps and move on to the Giants.
1Q - 3:55 - 2-9-BLT 42 - L.Jackson pass short right to N.Agholor to DAL 2 for 56 yards
Training camp was a beautiful thing to see what they had in Caelen Carson, the rookie from Wake Forest they got deep on Day 3. But, here is the thing about training camp – nobody tackles. And sometimes, all the ball skills and defensive back prowess doesn’t mean much if you are contact averse. He may actually be quite a physical corner, but in our short time watching him, I have not seen him as a run support help much at all in these games. Now, here he is in Cover 1. At the moment of the catch, he is the only player on his side of the hash marks. There is no help. None. So, for a rookie to be so casual in his hug tackle technique with Nelson Agholor was not good. I hope that inspires him moving forward that in the NFL, this one moment can lose you a game and there are no receivers who are going to brother-in-law you and go down easy. 56 yards gained and about 50 was unnecessary.
2Q - 1:53 - 1-10-50 - L.Jackson pass short left to D.Henry to DAL 27 for 23 yards
The Cowboys better prepare to deal with screens every game now, too, until they show they can defend them better as Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry have both had nice ones. This one is interesting because Lamar Jackson also had his TE 80-Likely wide open at the 40-yard line when he threw to Henry and once 97-Odighizuwa could not get him down in pursuit, he was out the gate. Cowboys were in Cover 6 here but the Ravens were trying every tactic to slow down the Cowboys edge defenders and they ended up teaching a full clinic.
2Q - 0:31 - 2-7-DAL 13 - L.Jackson pass short middle to R.Bateman for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
A few plays later, we have a very wide open Rashod Bateman. Cowboys are in Cover 4 and our middle safety Donovan Wilson is not playing good coverage here at all. Please tell me that when Lamar Jackson is rolling to his right, you know he isn’t going to throw a corner to the left across the entire field. If you know that, why, Donovan, would you bite on a fake to nowhere? Bateman was always going to run a route that was similar to his QB’s rollout because nothing else would make sense. I can’t have a 6th year safety playing this poorly and I really cannot explain his poor 2024 right now.
3Q - 13:55 - 3-1-BLT 39 - D.Henry left guard to DAL 32 for 29 yards
First drive of the 2nd half. You have just been yelled at, probably, so it is time to make a statement. 3rd and short. You know that Henry is going to get the ball. Watch 6-Donovan Wilson on this play, please. He is in the gap, he vacates it to join Eric Kendricks in his gap, and Henry runs through the exact spot where he used to be. I am absolutely stunned at how bad this defensive sequence is for Wilson.
3Q - 12:06 - 2-4-DAL 26 - D.Henry left guard for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Oh wow. Mazi Smith is ragdolled and tossed. Overshown is locked down. Kendricks is washed out. Donovan Wilson misses another tackle. There is just no physical play from this defense here and the Ravens are enjoying some easy money. If you made it this far, I congratulate your loyalty to this bunch.
Splash Plays:
We didn’t find much this week - just seven. They can’t even consider splash plays until they can simply show some resistance to basic run concepts.
And our leaders so far:
And with that, let’s move on to the Giants.
We are quickly running out of answers on whom to blame for defensive mess.
Bob Sturm
Sep 25, 2024
Here we go. Our objectives today will be:
- Evaluate the defensive effort against Baltimore
- How to destroy a destructive pass rush
- The Read Option and the Scrape Exchange Mystery
- The Missed Tackles Epidemic
- Look at some All-22 film
- Splash Plays update through three weeks
The defensive effort against Baltimore
We know now that all of our talk in the buildup to Week 3 was not very grounded in reality. I expected a resounding response to the New Orleans debacle, and it very much went the wrong way, and it started immediately.
They gave up three explosive runs (10 yards or more) against the Browns. They gave up five to the Saints. And then, in a supposed response to what the Saints did to them, they gave up ten explosive runs against the Ravens.
They cannot stop the run right now, and it appears to get worse with each passing week. With Dallas now ranked 32nd in rushing per game and 32nd in rushing per play, we should prepare that every opponent coming up will simply study these 18 explosive runs and build their game plan accordingly.
The Ravens had 161 rush yards before contact and 113 rush yards after contact in this game – in which the Cowboys were charged with 17 missed tackles.
Yes, you heard this correctly: The Cowboys allowed 161 yards before contact and then missed 17 tackles to allow 113 yards after contact.
Guys, I try not to say this lightly: this is as bad as it gets.
They ran for 274 yards against Dallas in one game. It was the 7th worst beating on the ground – EVER – against the Cowboys. They took the Saints humiliation and might have made it worse.
Here is the Ravens first play. The very first play of the game:
This is the first explosive run of the game as Lamar Jackson keeps on a read option and he keeps as Micah dives down on Derrick Henry (more on that in a bit) and Lamar has the unflanked left to run for 12 yards without the slightest contact. None.
And, here we go again.
As you can see below, Baltimore gave the Dallas defense failing grades just about everywhere. All the red on this clipboard tells a story, but it probably could have been worse if the Ravens kept doing what they were doing to jump to a 28-6 lead.
Again, no sacks and no takeaways. The success rates for Baltimore overall at 52% are enough to lead the NFL for a season. The passing success rate is off the charts, as they hit 12.1 yards per attempt!
It would be difficult to decide which defensive game was worse. Was it the New Orleans game or the Baltimore game? You choose? And knowing the Saints scored touchdowns on their first six possessions, how could the Ravens game be just as bad?
Here is the drive chart:
People ask me constantly now, “is this on the players or on Mike Zimmer?”
Well, let’s just say that there is more than enough blame to go around. It looks like a very poorly coached defense that also has questionable effort and commitment to play the way they certainly should know how to play.
It is brutally bad.
How to destroy a destructive pass rush
Over the last two games, the Cowboys have one sack. Why? Because opponents are not passing the football. And why have they not passed the football? Because they don’t have to pass it when they are leading the entire game.
You may recall us talking about this last year, but for the benefit of those who are new to our operation, allow me a recap of some football truths.
There is no better way to stop a pass rush than to stop passing. Of course, that is not practical if you need points. So, step one is to take an early lead. As you know, the Saints and Ravens were both up 14-3 before the game had really even gotten moving.
Once you have a lead, you do everything on your terms. Punts are fine, but you never have to pass in “passing situations,” and those are where you face the most ferocious passing defenses. 3rd-and-long or coming from behind is when defenses stop caring about run responsibilities and “pin their ears back” and rush the passer.
This is where the Cowboys are at their best. You will see that clearly if you look at last season. What games were the Cowboys best at beating up a QB? When they were ahead early.
Let me show you some stats on when interceptions and sacks happen in the NFL. In 2023, there were 430 interceptions and 1,408 sacks in 33,902 plays throughout the league. Let’s divide those plays into two categories: Playing with either a lead, a tie, or a slight deficit (3 points or less) will be in one pile that consists of 69.3% of all snaps, and the other pile will be trailing by four points or more when the snap happens (30.7% of all snaps).
Playing from behind resulted in just 30% of all snaps — 12,737 — yet consisted of 51% of all interceptions (218) and 46% of all sacks (652).
Playing with a lead, tie, or slight deficit was 70% of the snaps — 23,510 — yet just 49% of all interceptions (212) and 54% of all sacks (756).
Why? Because when you are behind, you pass 70% of the time instead of about 55%. You are forced to take chances and hold the ball. And this is when Micah Parsons and friends can take over games.
So, people ask where Micah is in these games? Well, he is right where he always is, and he is still a clear and present danger. But, if you only face runs, it doesn’t matter how good your sack king is.
New Orleans and Baltimore have run 116 plays in the last two weeks. 84 of those plays are runs. 72.4% of the plays are runs. Most of the passes are early downs where they use play-action, and they look like runs. And why can they do this? Because they have the lead for 55 minutes a game and trail for 0 seconds.
You want to see which games you were frustrated about “where is Micah and the pass rush” from 2023?
And that, my friends, is why Mike McCarthy wanted to receive. He knows what happens to his pass rush when they fall behind. He has seen it all too often. And yes, Green Bay never trailed in that playoff game, either.
So, if you want to know where the pass rushers are in these games where they aren’t getting to the passer, first ask yourself, is the game allowing any pass rushers to rush the passer?
This is why coaches will always tell their team that rushing the passer is a privilege that you earn as a defense by stopping the run. You would have to be nuts to let Micah Parsons destroy your offense for no good reason.
The Read Option and the Scrape Exchange Mystery
Now, back to our debacle on Sunday. What you will see below is the Kevin Utz cutup of approximately 17 read-options from Sunday. I asked him to circle the read defender on each play. If you are wondering who that is, allow me to quickly explain.
A read option means you (the QB) are reading a defender. You are not blocking him, you are waiting for him to make a choice. The choice is to take the give (RB) or the keep (QB). When he chooses, the QB makes him wrong. So, the player in question is circled before each snap, and we think he is the read.
Now, you can use slow motion or not, here are those plays.
Now, it is very important not to assume the guy who is circled is the one expected to make the play. In fact, the whole point of the read-option is to make sure he doesn’t make the play. Occasionally, he might, but this concept has existed (and has for 100 years) to make him wrong. And that is why defenses have devised tactics to defeat it.
And that is why it is likely not a great idea to blame Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence as the ones who don’t know what they are doing. I have seen plenty of that and admit that, when watching it live, this is a quick assumption. But, it is probably wrong.
We think – and many others (see below) – submit that many of these plays are being defended with a very poorly run “scrape or gap exchange.” What is that?
What’s a scrape exchange: It’s a defensive concept that flips the roles of two backside defenders, thus covering both sides of a quarterback’s zone read. The guy the offense thinks it’s optioning, usually a defensive end, “crashes” (move horizontally across the line of scrimmage) and is “exchanged” for another defender, usually a linebacker, who “scrapes” to the area the end vacated.
Two very smart football men were looking at these plays from Sunday and had the same conclusion:
So, people want answers. Who is busting if it isn’t Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence? Well, sometimes, it probably is. But, the play at the very top looks like Eric Kendricks, to me. Then DeMarvion Overshown. Then Donovan Wilson. So, basically, the conclusion must be that if you run a concept and it is poorly executed to the tune of 159 yards in explosive runs, we must say it is Mike Zimmer.
This is where we are.
The Missed Tackles Epidemic
And then, to make matters even worse, they were not tackling well. In fact, they were not tackling well at all.
So, again, let’s show you. Kevin circled the missed tackles that PFF recorded on Sunday and this reel will take a while.
Just about everyone takes a turn. We can live with missed tackles if you are in the right gaps. We can live with a few wrong gaps if you are good at tackling. But, you can see right here that the spot they are in right now is that the team doesn’t know how to deploy players and then isn’t good at getting guys down.
I really wish DeMarvion Overshown were better at the physical components of playing linebacker, but right now, I fear it is his weakness. I don’t mean to single him out, but a lot of college football fans want him out there more, despite teams running right into the teeth of this defense. But, he is definitely not alone. Derrick Henry is not easy to tackle, but we have seen this for two straight weeks with everyone carrying the ball.
Looking at the All-22 film
To show mercy to us all, let’s look at a half-dozen snaps and move on to the Giants.
1Q - 3:55 - 2-9-BLT 42 - L.Jackson pass short right to N.Agholor to DAL 2 for 56 yards
Training camp was a beautiful thing to see what they had in Caelen Carson, the rookie from Wake Forest they got deep on Day 3. But, here is the thing about training camp – nobody tackles. And sometimes, all the ball skills and defensive back prowess doesn’t mean much if you are contact averse. He may actually be quite a physical corner, but in our short time watching him, I have not seen him as a run support help much at all in these games. Now, here he is in Cover 1. At the moment of the catch, he is the only player on his side of the hash marks. There is no help. None. So, for a rookie to be so casual in his hug tackle technique with Nelson Agholor was not good. I hope that inspires him moving forward that in the NFL, this one moment can lose you a game and there are no receivers who are going to brother-in-law you and go down easy. 56 yards gained and about 50 was unnecessary.
2Q - 1:53 - 1-10-50 - L.Jackson pass short left to D.Henry to DAL 27 for 23 yards
The Cowboys better prepare to deal with screens every game now, too, until they show they can defend them better as Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry have both had nice ones. This one is interesting because Lamar Jackson also had his TE 80-Likely wide open at the 40-yard line when he threw to Henry and once 97-Odighizuwa could not get him down in pursuit, he was out the gate. Cowboys were in Cover 6 here but the Ravens were trying every tactic to slow down the Cowboys edge defenders and they ended up teaching a full clinic.
2Q - 0:31 - 2-7-DAL 13 - L.Jackson pass short middle to R.Bateman for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
A few plays later, we have a very wide open Rashod Bateman. Cowboys are in Cover 4 and our middle safety Donovan Wilson is not playing good coverage here at all. Please tell me that when Lamar Jackson is rolling to his right, you know he isn’t going to throw a corner to the left across the entire field. If you know that, why, Donovan, would you bite on a fake to nowhere? Bateman was always going to run a route that was similar to his QB’s rollout because nothing else would make sense. I can’t have a 6th year safety playing this poorly and I really cannot explain his poor 2024 right now.
3Q - 13:55 - 3-1-BLT 39 - D.Henry left guard to DAL 32 for 29 yards
First drive of the 2nd half. You have just been yelled at, probably, so it is time to make a statement. 3rd and short. You know that Henry is going to get the ball. Watch 6-Donovan Wilson on this play, please. He is in the gap, he vacates it to join Eric Kendricks in his gap, and Henry runs through the exact spot where he used to be. I am absolutely stunned at how bad this defensive sequence is for Wilson.
3Q - 12:06 - 2-4-DAL 26 - D.Henry left guard for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Oh wow. Mazi Smith is ragdolled and tossed. Overshown is locked down. Kendricks is washed out. Donovan Wilson misses another tackle. There is just no physical play from this defense here and the Ravens are enjoying some easy money. If you made it this far, I congratulate your loyalty to this bunch.
Splash Plays:
We didn’t find much this week - just seven. They can’t even consider splash plays until they can simply show some resistance to basic run concepts.
And our leaders so far:
And with that, let’s move on to the Giants.
