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By Bob Sturm Nov 29, 2019
There is a popular debate happening across the sports world about the existence of momentum. For years, coaches, players and observers have not only believed in its existence but offered chapter-and-verse personal accounts where they felt it take over a game or experience, leaving them powerless to fight against it or invincible alongside it. Momentum is not to be messed with. It can write history books.
New information, however, has led many to dispute this unquantifiable force as a popular myth or even a catch-all term to describe a series of unfortunate events without a clear explanation. It is occasionally labeled as a tool the weak-minded rely on to explain things that seem to travel in packs, but in the end, something that has no more bearing on reality than the boogeyman or the Easter Bunny.
This particular author will risk the scrutiny of future generations’ wrath. I have generally sided with the former over the latter in this matter, which will quickly make many modern intellectuals believe I am on the fast track to antiquity. I am open to this new age of analytics and studying how things come together, but I would never suggest anything that cannot be seen on a spreadsheet fails to even exist. I do believe in chemistry, leadership and even the effects of confidence, and you are darn right I believe in sports momentum and how it can sometimes be take a ship that appeared to be sailing just fine all the way to the bottom of the ocean.
Perhaps nothing has forged my belief system more than the fact that I have covered the Dallas Cowboys for 22 seasons. This team is currently in the midst of another once-promising season, which has taken on plenty of water. The Cowboys have now lost an unthinkable six of their last nine games and suffered yet another loss to a team Las Vegas oddsmakers felt was certainly the second-best squad on the field before the game began. Trust me, I am not labeling this 2019 as a case for momentum, but Thanksgiving Day 2019 featured a series of plays that all went one direction. The home side felt more likely to bow to each new event because they were staggered by the one before.
In other words, Thursday’s game was one when everything seemed connected. This might remind you of what happened Sunday against New England. And even if you are a sports atheist and you don’t believe in my labeling of the term momentum, you would certainly have to admit that, if nothing else, Dallas has very little ability at this point in time to withstand any adversity whatsoever. To “stop the bleeding,” if you will. They allowed themselves to go quietly into the Texas night with the whole world watching, and this time they weren’t facing Bill Belichick and Tom Brady up in Foxborough, where they’re nearly invincible.
This time, they collapsed in front of Sean McDermott and Josh Allen with the rest of the young, upstart Buffalo Bills pounding them into submission right in their own backyard on Thanksgiving. The Bills took the game over in the second quarter with a number of plays on both sides of the ball that Dallas almost seemed to cooperate with, looking dazed and confused as Buffalo snatched the ball away again and again. When Buffalo paused to take a breath, Dallas would then commit another self-inflicted mistake. By the time the fourth quarter began, the game was already over. Basically, a number of moments in the middle two quarters of the game made the final 15 minutes a complete formality. A touchdown favorite in a game it needed to win at home with the entire football world locked in faced nearly impossible odds by the end of the third quarter.
Talk about a horrible way to spend a holiday.
It started well enough, for sure, as Dallas took the ball with the opening drive and went right down the field with great confidence and purpose, culminating with a touchdown pass from Dak Prescott to Jason Witten to get the stadium rocking early. From there, the game sat at 7-0 for the next five possessions as each team traded two punts, with the Cowboys registering another cowardly punt from the Bills’ 42 on 4th-and-5 but then curiously switched personalities and risk-aversion traits to try a QB sneak on 4th-and-inches inside their own 20. Jason Garrett certainly tried to knock us all off balance, but both drives ended with Chris Jones punting.
Photo by Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
The game started to feel better for Buffalo as their third drive proved to be a steady march down the field for 85 yards, ending when Josh Allen hit Cole Beasley streaking through the second level of a Cowboys zone coverage to catch a pass in space and convert it into a touchdown. Beasley had to be over the moon to put together maybe the best performance of his career in his return to Dallas to play the team that he looked eager to leave. Beasley lobbied plenty of parting shots about the cultural differences in Buffalo, and plenty of Cowboys fans had shots back for his belief that the Bills could offer anything approaching life as a Dallas Cowboy. While that remains open for debate, the impressions he made on Thursday were that Jourdan Lewis could not cover him and neither could Cowboys’ zones. Touchdown Buffalo, and the game was tied.
Tied at 7-7, a series of events sent Dallas on a spiraling course that crashed into defeat within about an hour.
- First, on 2nd-and-10, Buffalo brought a blitz that would certainly become familiar over the course of the day. It is a five-man pressure that has a DE drop into coverage, but the opposite side runs a LB and then a trailing blitz into the same hole. Prescott thought a screen would be a great remedy for the blitz but then held the ball to draw it in as long as possible. Unfortunately for Dallas, he held it long enough to try to allow Tony Pollard to get through traffic to the screen, but Pollard was late to the party — as he initially made it seem he would stay in to pick up the blitz. Prescott never saw Pollard exit the back side, but threw a hopeful pass anyway — directly into the massive arms of DT Star Lotulelei. Prescott took a chance that his decision might pay dividends, but it backfired badly. Thankfully, Buffalo obliged Dallas with a missed field goal to keep the game level.
- Three offensive snaps later, Dallas would commit another giveaway. This time, it is 1st-and-10 with 21 personnel, suggesting another Dallas run. Instead, Prescott has some deep-route ideas and is just about to fire a strike when Ed Oliver take the ball from his arm after overwhelming backup left guard Xavier Su’a-Filo. The only thing worse than a first-down sack is a first-down strip sack, as Trent Murphy picks the ball up and starts running the other way. Multiple giveaways are most ominous in this situation, and now Dallas looks stunned.
- A short field for Buffalo from the turnover, but a holding penalty puts them in a bind. Never fear, a 19-yard completion to Beasley again leaves the Bills facing 4th-and-inches. Josh Allen should clearly be able to take the snap and fall forward to keep this drive alive, but what happens next might have decided the game. This, perhaps, was when you felt that sinking feeling that the Cowboys were being swept away by the rushing waters of, dare I say it, momentum. Allen fumbles the snap and actually has to reach to the ground to grab the ball. At this point, the play must be over, but instead, as Jaylon Smith stands right next to him and DeMarcus Lawrence is looking for the ball, Allen somehow picks the ball up and dives forward for more than three yards. The Cowboys defenders, especially the two who are probably the faces of the defense, seemed to lose focus on their task on that play. If Jaylon merely ties up Allen at the moment the ball hits the ground, there is no chance of the drive continuing. Instead, he seemed puzzled by what was happening and Allen seized the opportunity. It was most bizarre.
- Dallas now seems dazed, and Buffalo uses that moment to order another ambush. This time, on the very next snap, they call their best trick play. It is a double-reverse which has John Brown with the ball and running towards the right sideline when he is actually drawing attention from RB Devin Singletary, who is running wide open down the sideline. The throw didn’t need to be perfect because no defender had a single clue. Singletary jogged in for the go-ahead touchdown.
- With time to respond before halftime, the Cowboys’ final drive included a disallowed interception due to penalty and another sack of Prescott after Travis Frederick was bullied by the Houston rookie. Then, by order of Jason Garrett, Dallas tried to intentionally bleed the clock down so when Prescott hits Cooper, the Cowboys had already used plenty of clock despite having all of their timeouts. This bit of poor decision-making let them to settle for a field-goal attempt from 35 yards out which, of course, was then missed by the Cowboys’ mediocre kicker. Perhaps this is a place to offer my tweets from yesterday evening on this topic.
- Because of the missed field goal, the Cowboys face a 13-7 deficit at the half, with Buffalo set to receive the kickoff. The next drive featured yet another Cole Beasley catch on third down that moved the chains, went for 16 yards and then added another 15 because Xavier Woods committed a very poor personal foul penalty on the play. The field was flipped, and the Bills settled for another field goal. 16-7.
- Zeke nearly fumbles. Prescott then hits Gallup for the biggest offensive play of the game, but Prescott is also starting to feel a rush, and he actually ran into a Shaq Lawson sack that ended another drive. Never fear; Maher runs on the field again to miss a 47-yarder, and everything is beginning to spontaneously combust.
- Buffalo took the ball six times between the second quarter and early in the fourth, and would have scored on all six if not for that missed field goal after the Prescott interception. This time, with the stadium deflated, the Bills start marching again and are gaining yards on every snap. Finally, inside the red zone, Josh Allen himself breaks the pocket out of an empty set and gets into the end zone. Allen has never looked better, and the Bills are up 23-7 after his eighth rushing TD of the year.
- To make matters worse, the Cowboys cemented things in the wrong direction with a series that moved right down the field and proved that Prescott is ready to take physical pain for the cause as he attempts to run Tre’Davious White over at the sticks. This was probably Prescott’s worst game of the year, but even in defeat, I love his spirit. His internal clock, however, was off in this game, and he was forcing throws and trying to do things he normally doesn’t do. One of his best attributes is the ability to avoid deadly mistakes. He hasn’t looked himself in either game this week. It is like this is all weighing him down. On the final sequence, after Gallup is unable to get his foot in on 3rd-and-goal, Prescott fires a poor pass on a swing to Elliott that probably never has a chance even on a perfect throw. Amazingly, on two massively important recent fourth downs, the Cowboys decided their best receiver was their running back. Neither attempt came close to working. It appeared the play selection and the execution were equally lacking in quality and invention.
The capacity crowd seemed oddly unsurprised about what their favorite franchise has become. The team appeared numb to stop the bleeding as if they knew their ultimate fate. The coaching staff was publicly challenged all week, which also appeared to have no significant effect. The owner/general manager was outspoken again for a half hour after the game, which does nothing for the process with the possible exception of making everything about him at just the right and wrong moments.
In the end, maybe it is all about Jerry Jones. Maybe thinking this is fixed with a Keith O’Quinn or even a Jason Garrett firing is just a new way to repackage an old lie. Certainly, coaches should and will be fired for this underachieving season when the team has either one or no quality wins despite what most of the football world thought to be a loaded roster. But if anything is consistent over these last 25 years, it would be the way the Cowboys operate from the top down.
In some ways, the Jerry Jones story has put the Cowboys’ owner in the Hall of Fame and made him one of the richest men in the world. In other ways, it has made it painfully obvious that fielding a consistently excellent football team in his magnificently expensive stadium is something money simply cannot buy. This is the first time in Cowboys history when they have a losing record on Thanksgiving over the course of an entire decade. They have taken a 3-0 start and left themselves in a spot where a winning record for the season now seems to be a real challenge.
The owner tells you he still believes in his team, his coaches and the entire operation. He plans to make no real changes any time soon.
After all these years with no significant changes, why start now?
As we have learned, Nero did not really play the fiddle while Rome burned. The fiddle had yet to be invented.
