Sturm: The Morning After – The Big Thanksgiving Win

dpf1123

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 8, 2013
Messages
2,843
The Morning After – The Big Thanksgiving Win
Dallas had to go on a run immediately and with three straight wins, they are back up.
Bob Sturm
Nov 28, 2025



The theory in September was that this 2025 Cowboys team could go as far as Dak Prescott and Brian Schottenheimer could take them and that the quarterback, in particular, was going to need to do an enormous amount of the heavy lifting with the offense to overcome what was an undermanned defense that surely was not good enough.

By the time the Cowboys left Denver in October, it was pretty clear that the defense was actually so bad that the offense didn’t really stand a chance – especially if they were going to be a bit too conservative at times. The defense was actually even worse than we feared – despite our fearing that they would be bad.
It was interesting to hear today that the Denver game inspired the Cowboys on a few fronts, despite losing the next week against Arizona. It inspired the front office to start overhauling the personnel on the defense in hopes of finding a better group of players, as we have seen. But, the other element was fascinating, too. The CBS guys claimed that Schottenheimer told them that he was too conservative and told his assistants “don’t ever let me do that again.” Go win the game when you think you have a chance. Throw your best punches.

He went to Denver and didn’t stay aggressive. He got careful. He punted when he shouldn’t have punted and kicked a field goal when he shouldn’t have kicked a field goal. By the way, we agreed with him wholeheartedly and that is why his aggressive decisions against the Eagles seemed to come from the right place – even if they didn’t always work.

Well, it came up today in a pretty big spot or two. The first one was in the second quarter when they needed to make a decision on a 4th and 4 from the Kansas City 48 and already down, 14-7. They called a play and trusted Dak to hit Jake Ferguson for a conversion to keep the drive alive that cut the score to 14-10 and ultimately set them up to lead at the half.

But, that isn't the one that tells you the Cowboys have some swagger in their game right now. That one would be found with 9:26 left in the fourth quarter and the Cowboys up, 28-21. Kansas City had just punted after a crucial drop at midfield by Rashee Rice and Dallas took over at their own 10 yard line.

So, you are ahead of the Chiefs at your place with the whole world watching by a touchdown and there are less than 10 minutes to go. You have a chance to trust your weapons and make a nice lead into a bigger lead. Or, you do what scared money might do – run the clock and go conservative and not keep doing what you have been doing better than anyone in the NFL. Going into this game, the Cowboys were the No. 1 passing offense in the league and with 320 yards today through the air, I am more than confident that they will retain that position.

Do you trust your QB1 and your weapons or don’t you? You are the head coach and the play-caller and you have a huge opportunity to win your 3rd straight game and do something nobody has ever dreamed of doing – beat both sides of the most recent Super Bowl in a span of 5 days. You won the game on Sunday in the 4th Quarter and now you have a chance to go win the game on Thanksgiving Day in the 4th Quarter, too. In other words, did Denver teach you anything? Kansas City enters this game 1-4 in road games in 2025 and seem ready to fall.

So, it is 1st and 10 at your own 10-yard line. The Chiefs are eager to blitz, but probably will be expecting a run right up the gut from Javante Williams, so if you have designs on taking a shot, this first play of the drive is the time to do it. The pass protection has been fantastic all day. Put out the heavy run personnel – 21 personnel – and then let’s play-action a shot play to CeeDee Lamb and see if we can catch the Chiefs off guard, get the ball out of a bad spot, and take the game right to them. In other words, let’s go for the killshot right here and now.

I love it when a coach is thinking the same way as I am when I am watching it. The best time to call a “shot play” is when they are expecting you to run clock. Play-action is this team’s calling card and the design has said all year that is what they want their identity to be.
Let’s enjoy this one in slow-motion.

Please note the CeeDee Mailbox arm going up at 0:12 to tell Dak we got them and then the majestic throw that hung up a tad before Lamb brought it in for a casual 51 yards. The protection was great, the execution was plenty good, and the result was putting the Chiefs on their heels yet again. Dallas was on the prowl looking for dinner, despite already having a 7-point lead in a way that would have had Jason Garrett calling the cops. Building a lead? That is crazy.

Now, in fairness to those who are nervous about blowing an opportunity because of being battered by this organization for years, I wil tell you that there is merit to the heartburn caused by the moments down inside the 10 where a deflected pass looked dicey on 2nd down and a George Pickens fumble caused the stadium to panic on 3rd down. Luckily, Kavonte Turpin was ready to be a hero again and his fumble from Sunday is now a distant memory. Not only did Turpin fall on the Pickens fumble, but also was responsible for two of the Cowboys five best gainers on Thanksgiving. He finally has a major role in the offense and the little guy showed hustle to beat all the surrounding Chiefs in that recovery that preserved the field goal to go up 31-21 with 5:16 left.

But, I want to go back to the adventurous aggression of that drive starter from the coach. Let’s go win this right now with our best weapons – the offense and our veteran QB – right here and now.

I love that so much and if this team can go as far as the coach and QB can take them, then perhaps this final stretch run can get extra interesting. Dallas is legitimately 6-5-1 in this campaign which is, in fact, a winning record by the end of November. I realize six wins will not alter the Cowboys history books much, but with five games to play, it sure seems that 9 or 10 wins is very much still in play. And that might even mean the playoffs are still in play, too.

In other words, this has been a very weird year.
When we look back at this game, we will check the boxscore for clear signs on why the Cowboys were able to win. Patrick Mahomes had a sensational day and anytime he throws for four touchdowns and zero interceptions with a passer rating of 129.7, you assume his team is going to be in pretty good shape. According to Stathead, this is the 22nd time he has had a passer rating that good and he was 20-1 until yesterday. And he was 23-0 all time with a passer rating over 125 and 0 interceptions and again, he lost this game.

Rashee Rice was a factor for sure with 92 yards and two touchdowns. The Chiefs had 5 explosive plays and were 3-3 in the red zone. They had no giveaways and played a pretty clean game. They also had an absurd field position advantage all night where the field was slanted substantially. They started each drive at an average spot of their 36, with Dallas pinned down at their 18 on average. That allowed Kansas City 144 hidden yards in just where they took over each drive.

And yet, they lost a game they badly needed to win. How? Well, Dallas just played a slightly better game and were able to squeeze out the win.

Dallas ran the ball better (+18 yards), passed the ball much better (+59 yards), rushed the passer significantly better with a sack advantage of 3-0, and converted on third down after third down with their QB playing another high-level game and owned 3rd and 4th downs as the Cowboys won the situation where Steve Spagnuolo normally puts opponents in a blender.

Prescott was able to navigate the pocket, buy time, and avoid traps after his first big throw of the game ended horribly as he tried a deep throw to Pickens on the 3rd play of the game as he was being hit. That decision turned out to be the game’s one and only interception. Two plays later, the Chiefs were in the end zone and they would score again on their next possession so this game nearly started as poorly as the Eagles game did.

Of course, the good news about that was this Cowboys effort seemed pretty sure that they could still make it a game as they never looked a bit rattled and stayed well connected all afternoon. The Cowboys were steadied by their veteran QB and his two top receivers who took turns refusing to let the physical corners in red chase them off their spots. Pickens and Lamb play a very strong game, so when Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson wanted to grab and fight every snap, the receivers welcomed it. Hooks and comebacks and slants were all colisions, but Dallas won on these tight throws and also drew their share of penalties.

Overall, those two caught 13 balls for 200 yards and a touchdown. They are a clear and present danger and while there might be the occasional drop, they are dominant and if the Chiefs defense gives up 200 to just those two, I promise you the NFL is concerned about this level of firepower. But, then, the expert QB play that combined with very nice pass protection put Dallas in a spot where they were blitz 19 times and had zero sacks allowed. The Chiefs blitzed on nearly 50% of plays and did not get Dak down even once. He was pressured a dozen times, but he stayed alive and got the ball out just in time over and over again.

And that is the thing with him as he posts yet another 320 yard passing day with a rating over 100, and he made so many big throws under duress in big spots today. Continuously on 3rd downs and that keeps drives alive. He is playing so well that we just debated whether Sunday was one of the biggest wins of his career. But, is this one also on that level? The offense put up another 457 yards. They are a real problem.

The defense was more of a mixed bag, of course, but they were dealing with Mahomes who was feeling it in his homecoming opportunity. You just knew that Mahomes and Andy Reid were going to be throwing everything they had. This game was huge for them and it might be one of the final damaging blows they sustain to their playoff hopes. It is getting late pretty early for the Chiefs this year. They have too many teams to climb over now and have lost to many of them.

It has been quite a ride since November 17th in Las Vegas. 10 days and 3 wins and the season has flipped on the heels of a massive trade that secured Quinnen Williams. The Cowboys defense fought hard and did keep the Chiefs to just 362 yards which is 14 below their season average. I think you would take that. This season has flipped in a way that reminds us of the 2018 trade deadline move for Amari Cooper after a 3-5 start and that team finished 7-1 and the 10-6 record won the division. Did they just do this again? This team was 3-5-1 when the deadline passed and they are now 3-0. In both cases, it felt too little, too late. Now we must ask if this could actually get flipped again. Playoff probabilities still seem extremely slim, but the vibes are immaculate right now.

The Schottenheimer culture brought them through a depressing trade, a subsequent horrid start and then a massive team tragedy that still stings. And yet, the last 10 days have pushed 3 wins so tightly and joyously that they can’t wait to play again in one week’s time in Detroit against another wounded heavyweight. Does culture matter and did the Cowboys find a guy who knows how to set it wonderfully?

It sure seems that way. The coaching work and the QB performances that have been consistently excellent this year have this team in full belief that they aren’t nearly done yet. December has relevance and we want to know what’s next. But, until then, rest up. There appear to be meaningful battles yet ahead for what has turned into a very fun story.
 

Genghis Khan

The worst version of myself
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
46,705
This season has flipped in a way that reminds us of the 2018 trade deadline move for Amari Cooper after a 3-5 start and that team finished 7-1 and the 10-6 record won the division.

It seems exactly like that.
 

ravidubey

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
22,596
If they can stay healthy and keep their focus, they should be favored to win every game they play with the possible exception of this week, at least on paper.

But Detroit is vulnerable, as the Packers showed. They did completely ass rape the Bears, but Sept 14 was a long time ago, and it feels like Detroit is not improving as a team as much as it is surviving injuries and unexpectedly poor play from stalwarts like Sewell and Goff.

Anyways, with Chicago winning, the odds of 10-6-1 making the playoffs as a wildcard is rapidly approaching 0. 11-5-1 might make it, and that is a very tall order. Even the post Cooper trade didn’t result in a perfect closing record.

11-5-1 also has a shot at the division, though Philly has to lose two more for that to become a possibility
 

Genghis Khan

The worst version of myself
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
46,705
I think ideally you want to get to 10-6-1. I'd be pretty surprised if every wildcard gets to 11 or more wins.
 

Chocolate Lab

Free Phil Mafah!
Joined
Oct 2, 2014
Messages
30,039
I think ideally you want to get to 10-6-1. I'd be pretty surprised if every wildcard gets to 11 or more wins.
Exactly, history shows it's pretty rare for an 11 win team to not make it.

Teams that look great now will have an unexpected loss along the way, including probably us.
 

Genghis Khan

The worst version of myself
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
46,705
I just looked it up and 10 win teams have gotten in the playoffs either as a wildcard or division winner every single year in the 17 game era. And if we get to 10 wins we beat every single other 10 win team out other than potentially GB.

It's not guaranteed but I like our chances at 10 wins. Get to 10 and let the chips fall where they may.
 

Cowboysrock55

Super Moderator
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
60,831
I just looked it up and 10 win teams have gotten in the playoffs either as a wildcard or division winner every single year in the 17 game era. And if we get to 10 wins we beat every single other 10 win team out other than potentially GB.

It's not guaranteed but I like our chances at 10 wins. Get to 10 and let the chips fall where they may.
That's the thing there are upsets in the NFL. Teams have bad weeks. It's why teams really have to focus one week at a time. If you're the Eagles for example and you start thinking about the Cowboys now only being 1.5 games back that shit gets in your head.

In the end we just need to treat every game like a playoff game. I'm willing to say if we get to 11 wins there is 100% chance we are in. So that's how you need to play every week.
 
Top Bottom