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By Bob Sturm 1h ago
The focus on the media is often what starts conversations in the public. What you read about (or hear) that morning may influence what “is talked about” around the water cooler. It isn’t a great system for what wheel gets the grease, but it is the best one we have.
The opposite is also true.
Maybe, if we, the media, don’t talk about something enough, it gets ignored by the masses. Again, not always, but often, if everyone isn’t pointing and yelling at something, maybe its concern level remains low.
Out of sight, out of mind.
I better change that this morning. If I was doing a better job, maybe this would be the 10th time I talked about it this offseason. But, I must claim some responsibility on my part for not doing the job.
Because here without further buildup is the top priority for the Dallas Cowboys for 2021 that failed miserably in 2020.
The top guys on this team — the highly compensated offensive leaders — must take better care of the football than they did.
In particular, that is two guys. The same two who are the darlings of Hard Knocks and the two most consistently marketed, jerseys sold and checks written players in this organization, the “21-4” guys themselves, Dak and Zeke.
They are the guys, right? And if Dak Prescott “wouldn’t have gotten hurt” last year, everything would have been different, right?
I have said it. Perhaps, you, too? The Cowboys are favored to win a division that has a massive quarterback problem because the Cowboys’ QB is way better. He is way better because he has a real knack for “much more good than bad” in his performances. In this space, I have said over and over that Prescott takes care of the ball and that is one of the best parts of his game.
And Ezekiel Elliott? Well, the last thing anyone was worried about — or should have been — were the things that get you beat. Giveaways.
But, here is the thing that I want to visit today and if we need to we can do an even deeper dive on it in the near future if there is skepticism in the premise.
It goes something like this in a very informal history of the Dak Prescott era (2016-present):
1. The Jason Garrett teams are overly conservative. They are conservative because they know turnovers and the differential therein determine games at roughly an 85 percent clip regardless of era in NFL history. It’s true. Point spread, home field, even QB quality is not predictive like this. Every year, the top teams in turnover differential and fewest giveaways have great seasons. And every year, the most generous offenses in giveaways and the worst teams in differential all have underachieving seasons. But the conservatism that was the trademark of the early years of Prescott suggested that Dallas was trying to make him a “bus driver” and to play winning football by making fewer mistakes than the league does.
2. The NFL has evolved to reward teams that score a lot. It has made turning the risk dial a bit higher to try to make sure you aren’t trying to get to 20, but rather 30 points per game to give your side the best chance of winning. The rules are set up to assist the offenses and especially if you do not have a great defense, you might need to outscore your deficiencies — especially if you think you have a top-10 QB. The schemes are getting better and better, so if you can collect enough playmakers, you should really not allow conservatism to put an artificial ceiling on your profits.
3. The Cowboys had a conservative scheme (Scott Linehan) and a conservative coach (Garrett) holding back the offense. If only …
4. They hired and promoted Kellen Moore as well as seeking out Mike McCarthy, who despite warts, has always overseen an offense that understood the value in being led by an offensive attack to sometimes turn the NFL into the NBA where you aren’t building a defense to win every drive, just enough drives to win the game.
5. Moore/McCarthy would enter the picture, turn the dials up on trying to score on every drive and not treat punts like success by “shifting the field position”, but they are trying to make sure that if they get the ball five or six times a half, they are trying to score 7-10 points per quarter. Conservatism? No way. Pound the ball and eat the clock? That isn’t for us anymore. We are going to put the ball in the hands of our franchise QB and all of these playmakers and we are about to attack!
This brings us to 2020.
The revisionist history works like this now for 2020. Show slow-motion replay of Prescott injury against the Giants and roll credits. That was surely all they could do, but did you know they were the top offense on the planet at that point of the year?
Here were the Cowboys team rankings in the first five games last year and the reason why people assume the Cowboys will be great this year:
First in yards per game. First in passing yards per game. First in first downs per game. Third in yards per play and third in points per game.
The Chiefs had nothing on them, it seems. They were dominant with all of the fantasy numbers. It was an amazing fireworks display.
And why were they still losing games? Mike Nolan! He was horrible! All the retreads on defense? Bad! The defense is better and Prescott is back and everything is OK now!
What an easy game for the offense. Get Prescott back and look, the entire league is begging for mercy from this Dallas machine. It is really more fun to explain things this way than what I am about to do. But, this is what has never been properly explained and accounted for and before we start this new journey, we better face these facts.
Uncomfortable truth about the first five weeks of 2020
Nobody was turning the ball over more than the Dallas Cowboys. They had 11 giveaways and led the league. They had the worst differential and led the league. They gave up the most points off turnovers and led the league. These are three things you don’t want to lead the league in.
And here is what is really sad, it wasn’t just bad luck. They had several more dropped interceptions.
The Prescott I knew who didn’t throw the ball into coverage and make those “YOLO” throws that get quarterbacks beat? I am thinking that once the game started going in the wrong direction, his ability to make great decisions was somewhat compromised.
Here is a quick review of those five weeks last September and the ridiculous 11 giveaways Dallas had:
Week 1: No damage.
Week 2 home vs Atlanta (and Dan Quinn): All in the first quarter, Prescott is strip-sacked and loses the fumble, Elliott loses a fumble, and Dalton Schultz loses a fumble. Three giveaways.
Also, Week 2: As the Cowboys are rallying to make their fourth-quarter comeback, Prescott throws to CeeDee Lamb on a play that is nearly intercepted and dropped. But, absolutely a turnover-worthy play.
Week 3 at Seattle: Prescott’s throw to Amari Cooper is intercepted by Shaquill Griffin before halftime. Prescott is strip-sacked in the third quarter and lost it and then he went YOLO on a desperation long third down for an end-zone interception to end the game. Three more giveaways.
Also, Week 3: Seattle safety Tre Flowers had a pass bounce off his chest right to Michael Gallup. Turnover worthy to say the least and it was again as Dallas felt the pressure to “push the issue” and go get points.
Week 4 vs Cleveland: Boy, this one was ugly. Prescott strip-sacked and fumbled again. Elliott hits one for 24 yards … and fumbles and loses it. And Prescott tries to hit Cooper on a slant and Denzel Ward intercepts. Three more giveaways!
But, wait — more Week 4: Turnover-worthy plays where Prescott forces it down the seam to Schultz only to have a safety step right in front of it and drop it in the third quarter. Two plays later, Prescott forces the ball to Lamb and again, they were baiting him and stepping right in front of it. But wait, there is still another. Late fourth, Prescott is looking to Cooper down the seam and throws it over him and right into coverage. All three of these are turnover-worthy gaffes and that is a total of six in one game.
Week 5 vs the Giants: Prescott sails one over the arm of Elliott and right to Kyler Fackrell who runs it back 46 yards for a pick-6. The Cowboys are chasing another game. Andy Dalton will also fumble a snap exchange for two more giveaways.
There it is: 11 giveaways in four weeks (none in Week 1) and another five dropped interceptions. That’s 16 turnover-worthy moments. Almost everyone helped bury the game and require the rallies, so save the entire blame on the defense and Nolan. It just isn’t true.
They were playing losing football. And when building a deficit of their own doing, they would throw more balls into trap coverages because they were playing from behind and forcing the ball. Do you know when two out of every three turnovers occur? When teams are playing from behind and are forced to take chances. It is a recipe for disaster.
Ezekiel Elliott fumbles in Week 4 in 2020 vs. the Browns. (Tim Heitman / USA Today)
Conclusion time
This exercise is about the reality of 2020 and what it means for 2021. People say the Cowboys were taking chances because of their defense, but I say they turned the dial up to try to become a high-powered Chiefs/Packers/Saints offense, but did not do the most important thing when you try to operate explosives. You must do it safely.
Were the strip-sacks on Prescott? Probably more on not having your starting tackles. But was he waiting for more vertical opportunities which then allow Myles Garrett more time to rip your head off and the ball out? And does Prescott play differently when he is playing from behind and feels the pressure that they must score on this play? Because that is the recipe for throwing the ball right into a trap.
The truly great offenses do not turn the ball over like this. Not even close. So, please don’t try to brag about the big numbers and production if it came at a cost of losing games. Nobody cares about numbers that do not equate to winning.
Yes, the broken ankle and the other injuries buried them. But, they were digging their own graves quite well. The question is whether they are clear on that and emphasized it all along even though people aren’t screaming about it around water coolers.
This offense cannot be explosive if it is doing it recklessly. The Cowboys cannot win if they do not do what winning teams do. And that starts with Prescott proving that first month of 2020 was not the real him. He can do what the best do — get to 30 points per game without also costing the team and gifting the opponent the game. We know Elliott also plays a role, but the quarterback was the man with the ball in most of these situations and he is also the man with the massive contract and the expectations that go with it.
Being paid like Mahomes and Rodgers will quickly make sure the bar is up there, too. Be the solution and certainly not the problem.
There is no doubt that this goes to Moore and McCarthy, too. Their jobs depend on it.
Can they turn the dial up and be aggressive/explosive without being sloppy and self-sabotaging? Stats matter to fantasy owners, but in real football, you better play to win the game.
That is the real question for September of 2021 — even if nobody is talking about it enough.
