Sturm: Should Cowboys re-sign Aldon Smith? Analyzing his play & potential contract

Cotton

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By Bob Sturm Dec 16, 2020

It is very possible that Sunday’s Cowboys-Bengals matchup was one of the most unwatchable games of this NFL season. Yes, there have been games with fewer points scored and fewer yards gained, but those usually included at least some compelling storylines that might have provided a reason to care.

Starting in mid-December, however, you will find games between teams that have nothing to play for (aside from the absurdity of draft-pick spots). We also see plenty of players filling in for injured starters, facing off with either lame-duck coaching staffs or brand-new ones trying to find their way.

The game happens. The statistics count. The families are proud. But of the 256 games in the NFL regular season, this one might be in the bottom 10 percent. Let’s just admit it. The two teams combined for less than 600 total yards, which is a day of painfully putrid offense. One team did not get to 10 points while the other never really had to crank their offense up at all. There were worse games played this year in the sport with less intrigue, but not very many.

From a Dallas defensive standpoint, they had arguably their best day of the year. On the other hand, the opponent requires context. The Bengals were down so many important pieces of their offense — QB Joe Burrow, star RB Joe Mixon, their best offensive lineman in Jonah Williams — and are short of talent even when fully healthy that who can say for certain if this was a step in the right direction for the Cowboys’ directionless defense?

Today, I would like to divert our attention to another vexing defensive concern: Aldon Smith’s future in Dallas. That will be the big-picture study, but let’s get through the data for this game first.

Much like the big defensive day against the Eagles in Week 8, we must wonder where offensive incompetence meets defensive performance and be careful not to put too much stock into the results. That said, the Cowboys flew to the ball, played with passion and appeared to be angry after their lifeless approach to the Baltimore game. There are players on this defense who always play hard, but too many appear to slump their shoulders when morale falls. This needs to change moving forward because the NFL determines success based on your ability to deal with adversity. We have seen too many signs this year of that not being a positive attribute of this group.

WEEKLY DATA – AT CINCINNATI



The only stat on here that looks very poor is third-down conversions. You cannot give up over 50 percent, and you certainly can’t concede nine conversions and often live to tell the tale. On the other hand, I suppose three fumbles lost and just one play of over 20 yards explains the oddity of Sunday in Ohio.

QB NEXT-GEN THROW CHART



Arkansas alum Brandon Allen looked fine in his performance against a Cowboys secondary with very few contributions from anyone on the depth chart in September. Dallas was without Chidobe Awuzie, Trevon Diggs, Donovan Wilson and Anthony Brown. So the fact that A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins didn’t do more damage is probably quite an accomplishment.



We won’t dive into this today, but pressure rates can be repeated when sack rates cannot. So it is notable when you see Randy Gregory up top, both in this game and for the season. DeMarcus Lawrence has the most pressures this season, and Aldon Smith is next. Sack totals, like the two Tyrone Crawford ran into on Sunday, are the result of many factors — including your mates corralling guys right to you. It is something we will look at in January with greater depth.

EXPLOSIVES



The Bengals only managed one big play. That’s what you want.

Now to the splash plays, where Dallas had a season-high (21) this week after a season-low in Baltimore (7).

Splash Plays - Week 14

Q - TIMED/DPLAYERSPLASH
1 - 14:301/10/31LawrenceForced Fumble
1 - 14:301/10/31LewisFumble Recovered
1 - 6:282/3/20A SmithFumble Recovered
1 - 6:282/3/20A SmithTD Return
1 - 6:151/10/25ArmstrongPass Broken Up
1 - 5:001/10/46LawrenceTackle For Loss
1 - 0:093/1/15Hamilton, A SmithRun Stuffed
2 - 15:004/1/15ThompsonFumble Forced
2 - 15:004/1/15J SmithFumble Recovered
2 - 5:542/1/32ArmstrongRun Stuffed
2 - 0:591/10/21Lewis, Vander EschPass Stuffed
2 - 0:142/5/05J SmithPass Broken Up
3 - 10:552/7/28X WoodsHolding Penalty Drawn
3 - 5:212/7/15Ra RobinsonRun Stuffed
3 - 3:263/6/27Ra Robinson3rd Down Stop
4 - 11:322/6/39GregoryRun Stuffed
4 - 10:091/10/23Vander EschRun Stuffed
4 - 8:461/10/13J SmithHolding Penalty Drawn
4 - 5:121/10/25CrawfordSack
4 - 4:243/10/25CrawfordSack
4 - 1:202/6/29GregoryRun Stuffed

And for the season totals, we have finally added veteran Tyrone Crawford to the list. He’s had a nice career, but this is probably the lowest degree of production that a healthy $9 million player has ever brought a defense.

Season Totals - 2020 Splash Plays


Let’s move along to the next item on the board and maybe one with some importance.
Watching Smith take a fumble 78 yards for a touchdown early in the first quarter on Sunday was reason enough to take a moment and appreciate one of the impactful newcomers to the 2020 Cowboys. He has been pretty darn good this season, and this play will be on his tape.


I almost fell out of my chair when Dallas signed Smith on April 1st. It was so far off the board of possibilities that at, first, I was hard-pressed to believe it. Then I tried to figure out what he might have to offer the sport he once dominated. There is no reason he couldn’t have been a superstar for the entirety of the last decade, but instead, he was diverted by personal issues off the field that caused him to miss almost five full seasons.

The contract the Cowboys offered him was definitely team-friendly, at $1.3 million for the year with a chance to rise to $2 million if he played in 16 games. It appears he likely will. He is 31 years old and now is one of many pending defensive free agents. We looked at the secondary last week, but luckily, the defensive front has very few decisions to make.

There are only three unrestricted free agents:

Tyrone Crawford, DT, 31 years old, 359 snaps – The mammoth five-year, $45 million deal Crawford signed in 2015 did not age well at all. He has been a good soldier but not a productive one. He missed most of 2019 with injury, and you could certainly speculate that he was a no-brainer to free up $9 million last offseason, except that he shared an agent with Dak Prescott and there were rumors that the Cowboys didn’t wish to make waves by releasing one client to lock down another.

True or not, this contract has been a millstone for a few years. Whether he was a great leader or not is almost irrelevant at that price point. Crawford played too much inside, was no match against the run and barely touched a quarterback before Sunday. I would certainly be fine bringing him back at a veteran minimum deal to add him to a rotation in the future, but the days of being overleveraged on him in both money and snaps need to end this month. I appreciate his career, but he is far from the player he was at his peak. That said, it isn’t Crawford’s fault the Cowboys had no better plans when Gerald McCoy and Trysten Hill were both lost for the year.

Sean Lee, LB, 34 years old, 73 snaps – Lee is pretty similar to Crawford in that he was paid well for services rendered — $4.5 million this season for fewer than 100 snaps and no plays of real substance that come quickly to mind. He is a Cowboys pillar of excellence for this era, should be widely respected and I would believe has a coaching career in front of him if he wants it (and I am sure he does). But his body can no longer complete the tasks required of an NFL linebacker. He didn’t pay any dividends as an insurance policy; when Vander Esch was out, so was Lee. The Cowboys have been lucky to have Lee wearing the star since the 2010 draft, but I believe his career is probably over.

Aldon Smith, EDGE, 31 years old, 652 snaps – Smith wasn’t traded at the deadline, I suspect, because he wanted to play here and the Cowboys were one of only a few teams that would accommodate him. I believe they know that and have every intention of keeping him around at a higher dollar figure. How high that rate goes is wildly speculative, but keep in mind that the range of payment for full-time edge rushers gets up there very quickly. The question of whether Dallas wants a one- or two-year deal will be interesting — as well as whether Aldon might consider another franchise — but I would guess a two-year, $14-million deal should be close. On a one-year contract, I think $8 million to $10 million is a good number.

There is no question Smith is a talent who can still really affect games. He can do it all and plays on all downs. He can play stand-up edge or nickel defensive end and even slide inside to play defensive tackle.

He has a premium combination of size and athleticism that does not grow on trees. His effort level is high, and his hand usage is strong. I have been very pleased with most components of his game, and he is still in contention to take away the Cowboys splash-play title belt DeMarcus Lawrence has won in three consecutive seasons. (He currently trails by only 1.5 splashes.)

He has had some phenomenal games (against the Seahawks and Rams) and some quiet games (against the Ravens and Steelers). But, overall, I think Smith has been a real solid bookend for DeMarcus Lawrence and every bit the player that Robert Quinn was for most of 2019. I think Randy Gregory has helped them get even better, and the combination of all three of them moving forward is a path worth following.

That said, Smith has looked tired at times, and I assume his body is still trying to adjust to the absolute gauntlet of NFL football again after being absent since 2015. The Cowboys are also trying to figure out how to best make the puzzle pieces fit. But the questions of his legitimate impact on the league at age 31 is really not a concern like it was in April when I wrote this piece on him:

Taking a flyer on a player is one thing. Taking it on a guy who has been off pro football’s radar for over a presidential term seems crazy.

As you can tell, the range of outcomes is absurdly immense. When right, both of these men have shown to have very impressive abilities. When wrong, both of these men have shown to be unavailable to their employers for years at a time. This could go very well or very poorly, with the odds taking the latter over the former. Like a moth to a flame, the Cowboys sometimes just cannot help themselves. Maybe this time it pays off for them, but the NFL seems to doubt it.

It is the ultimate wait-and-see, but also a chance for Aldon Smith to write his own redemption story. Maybe the man has figured out his life enough to think he can handle the bright lights and high stakes of pro football again.


I would move quickly to get Smith under contract for 2021. When you look at the money spent on Crawford ($9 million), Lee ($4.5 million), McCoy ($4.5 million) and Everson Griffen ($6 million), you can see the Cowboys had $24 million going to many pieces who will soon be off the books. They may look to add McCoy again, but if you slide a chunk over to Aldon Smith, I would like to think this is a mutually beneficial premise that would help Dallas check one box very quickly.

I would be happy to strike a two-year deal with Smith because the concerns about his growth as a human seem asked and answered in the many interviews and interactions he has demonstrated this year. He should be credited with a successful resumption of his NFL career and his growth as an individual. I would like to see Dallas rush to reward that with a reasonable deal and move to more pressing matters.
He earned it this year.
 

boozeman

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When you look at the money spent on Crawford ($9 million), Lee ($4.5 million), McCoy ($4.5 million) and Everson Griffen ($6 million), you can see the Cowboys had $24 million going to many pieces who will soon be off the books.
Reading this makes me sick.

I don't feel Smith has earned a fat contract, but then I see what we paid here and I have changed my mind.
 

Chocolate Lab

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I can't wait to never see Crawford again.
 
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p1_

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Right end is definitely worse. It is like you are telling the QB that your blindside is not going to be a threat.
why do the Jones act like they have to play the guy that they mistakenly overpaid? I don't care that the guy got 2 sacks in the one game in the last 3 years. Sit his no talent ass and his broke down hips the fuck down. He brings a great big bag of NOTHING to the defense.
 

ravidubey

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why do the Jones act like they have to play the guy that they mistakenly overpaid?
Lather, rinse, repeat. This is what this pathologically stubborn and insecure team does. “This is the way”, except substitute overpaid players not living up to contracts in place of beskar helmets.
 

armadillooutlaw

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Smith has certainly been better than anyone thought.
He's still a productive DE, but wears down after a while.
As a rotation player - 30-35 snaps/game - he'd be nice to keep.
If Crawford got to stick around at 9 mil/yr for so long, then Smith is probably worth 7mil/yr, IMO.
 

mcnuttz

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Smith has certainly been better than anyone thought.
He's still a productive DE, but wears down after a while.
As a rotation player - 30-35 snaps/game - he'd be nice to keep.
If Crawford got to stick around at 9 mil/yr for so long, then Smith is probably worth 7mil/yr, IMO.
Would like to see him more on the inside.

He's clearly stronger but not as fast as he used to be.
 

Cujo

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If someone wants to overpay for him, I would let them and collect my comp pick.
 

Genghis Khan

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If someone wants to overpay for him, I would let them and collect my comp pick.
Overpay, sure. Especially if it's a massive overpay.

But if it's a reasonable contract, I'd rather have Aldon than a random 5th or whatever rounder.
 

Cotton

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Overpay, sure. Especially if it's a massive overpay.

But if it's a reasonable contract, I'd rather have Aldon than a random 5th or whatever rounder.
I do think Aldon will get better with a solid offseason under his belt. He seems completely wiped at times and they have overused him. They have been asking/expecting too much of him so soon coming back.
 

p1_

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I do think Aldon will get better with a solid offseason under his belt. He seems completely wiped at times and they have overused him. They have been asking/expecting too much of him so soon coming back.
he looks to be playing a solid majority of defensive plays. He's got to be tired; theyre so limited in the middle he's better than current alternatives in passing situations.
 

Simpleton

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he looks to be playing a solid majority of defensive plays. He's got to be tired; theyre so limited in the middle he's better than current alternatives in passing situations.
He'splayed 73% of the snaps, which is a huge amount for a guy who was out of football for 5 years.
 
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Cowboysrock55

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He'splayed 73% of the snaps, which is a huge amount for a guy who was out of football for 5 years.
He looked so good at first. And frankly hasn't done much since. I absolutely think it's worth giving him a whole offseason and seeing if we can get more of what we saw at the start of the season as opposed to what we have gotten in recent weeks.
 
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