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Quick Hit: Trading for WR Jonathan Mingo
Cowboys do something at the deadline that is not making many of their fans happy.
Bob Sturm
Nov 05, 2024
Almost as if the Cowboys could not bear the idea of the US Election having a bigger media presence than they did on this Tuesday, they kept their word to add a wide receiver at the deadline.
However, it was a wide receiver that surely nobody had on their radar. The Cowboys traded a good pick – we might even call it a very good pick – for 2023 2nd rounder Jonathan Mingo.
Mingo was drafted with the 39th overall pick by the Panthers and immediately became a starter as a rookie. However, he has since fallen down the depth chart and that is certainly not helping his perception or stock. I assume that when Carolina started shopping him, they never dreamed they would be able to get a 4th rounder back. But, they did. The Dallas Cowboys sent a 4th round pick for a guy who has 12 catches and 121 yards this season. Not in a game, mind you. In nine. Nine games and barely a dozen catches. He hasn’t caught a pass since October 13th and that day he caught one for one yard.
I’m not joking. One catch for one yard and then nothing for a month. Then, the Cowboys agree to send a very strong 4th rounder (and getting stronger with each loss!) to make this deal happen for Mingo.
On the surface, it looks bad. Really bad.
But, let’s dive in a bit and then look at some film on Jonathan Mingo.
These are My Three Thoughts:
– This is the type of trade that makes a lot of sense for a team with many roster needs, limited cap space, and many picks in the upcoming draft. There is a massive market inefficiency for flipping picks that would never be enough for a comparable talent for prospects that have already lost their “blue chip prospect” status and thus offer a bit of a lottery ticket value if you hit (but would not surprise anyone if it does not).
Now, there is a lot there and this isn’t a ton about Jonathan Mingo, in particular. This is the premise of using Day 3 picks to acquire Day 1 or Day 2 talents at a massive discount because of a slow start to their career. If you are the Cowboys and you are looking at roughly seven Day 3 picks between Rounds 4-6 and you find a Top 50-75 prospect that you desired in the 2023 or 2024 draft that suddenly becomes available, you should give it a lot of thought.
Obviously, this suggests that you wanted him on his draft day and that your intel is solid. If you feel like you have scouted the player exhaustively, studied what has transpired since his selection, and reconciled the developments, then go for it. You will get ridiculed because surely his disappointing start to his career has sunk his value with his current team, but this represents a real buy low opportunity. It is the exact opposite of what happens during draft season when a workout or a 40-time can raise someone a round or two. These are commodities and you liked him enough to place a grade on him. When the grade has been updated but still exceeds the asking price – and his rookie contract still holds about 65% of its initial term – then trust your drafting and scouting process and use one of your extra picks to take a shot. I have zero issue with that logic and am particularly encouraged because this is a pure scouting department play in that I don’t believe Jerry or Stephen have much casual knowledge of Mingo beyond the briefings and the visit in 2023.
They clearly liked him and he was 22 when they wanted to select him. He is 23 now. Yes, water has gone under the bridge, but let’s not act like that was ancient history. If he is healthy, he may require a fresh start with a new organization and if that is all he needs, well, he is not the first. Sometimes, the first place doesn’t work out. With a cap hit of $1.5m in 2025 and $1.9m in 2026, he will cost you just north of what you pay a long-snapper or about half of what you are going to pay your punter.
So, let me be clear: I don’t think this trade has much to do with 2024 at all. They just want to secure the player and add him to their group now, but for the next 2 years plus a nice runway to acclimate him with the operation now.
There is also those disingenuous claims online right now about the trade price of 32-year old wide outs who make $25m and are on an expiring contracts as a rental player only costing a 5th rounder. Don’t be distracted by this utter nonsense. This is a play for 2.5 years for a player on a tiny salary who would be part of your roster for several seasons. That is a play for a team getting bullpen help to close a pennant race. There is simply no comparison other than to get clicks from Cowboys fans who are enraged.
I don’t love the player at all and I certainly don’t love the GM’s judgement. But, this one feels like the type of market inefficiency that can be exploited. Just don’t expect the legions who engage in groupthink and sell Cowboys misery to support this move.
– If there is a position that I am targeting right now, wide receiver is probably the top one on the list because this franchise has managed to roster very few right now and the cost of a walk-in starter at this position is often a 1st or 2nd rounder. If this player turns out to be your WR2 or WR3 in 2025, you will be pretty pleased with the modest price.
The Cowboys have a major WR problem. In a recent game with everything on the line, they sent their punt returner on a deep route because their one true stud at the position was being crowded by many 49ers defenders. Therefore, a 5’7 punt returner was hit in both hands by a Dak Prescott 50-yard missile and he dropped the ball. Is it his fault? No. It is the fault of an organization that doesn’t have enough quality at maybe the most important numbers position that definitely requires both quantity and quality. Dallas may have neither right now in high supply.
Wide Receiver is a premium position. Just like tackle, pass rusher, cornerback, and of course, QB. For these spots, we must draft early to get the blue-chip guys. Running back is not. That is why people will tell you that the 4th rounder spent from Trey Lance or this one traded today would be your starting RB this season and they aren’t wrong.
But not one person has said that is where you would get a starting WR. Why? Because you cannot get a top WR in the 4th round unless you win the lottery. For instance, 21 receivers were taken after pick No. 79 in 2023 and I think one of them would be considered worthy of your fantasy team: Puka Nacua in the 5th. In 2022, there were 14 taken after pick No. 53 and there is one more: Romeo Doubs in the 4th. So, of the 2022-2023 draft classes after those two spots in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, you have 35 receivers and two of them are probably capable of starting in the NFL. This year we have 19 more Day 3 receivers and I am not sure there is a single one that will move the needle substantially. So, now the sample size is up to 54 or so and we have two real dudes.
Yes, if you want a young receiver, you better get them early. Real early. Top 50, most likely, or don’t bother because the leftovers are seldom able to rise up. There are many believers in Ryan Flournoy right now, but given that he was there in the 6th round tells us that the league isn’t terribly convinced he can do it. Now, what if I took a pick from the mid 4th – let’s call it No. 112 – and get you a guy who can come in and earn a starting spot in 2025 and make nearly nothing. Is that suddenly smart talent acquisition?
Now, you are surely saying that Mingo can’t be that guy. I will confess that I am only causally familiar with his tape because I did not do his profile at Ole Miss (I ran out of time) and I was not tracking him closely at Carolina. But, since you asked about the Panthers, let’s spend a moment here.
– Carolina has been an absolute train wreck of an organization for many years and the entirety of Mingo’s brief NFL career. To compare his situation to that of Trey Lance in San Francisco is enough to expel anyone from the conversation.
The circle of life for the bottom feeders in the NFL is pretty simple. Every few years they fire everyone. General Managers, Scouting departments, and full coaching staffs and then they start anew. Usually, they gut the roster and the old guy’s players get shipped off and the new guy wants to clear the deck and acquire picks so he can restart the clock with his guys and his vision of how this should work.
Mingo has played in 24 NFL games and has had three different coaches. Frank Reich, Chris Tabor, and now Dave Canales have been his coaches in the last 12 months. He was drafted by GM Scott Fitterer and traded by new GM Dan Morgan.
The offense has changed and the QBs have changed from Bryce Young to Andy Dalton back to Young and then to Dalton and we are back at Dalton again. His fellow receivers were Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, Terrace Marshall, and Laviska Shenault. Those four receivers have all been sent away from their current offense. Injured Reserve, the Chargers, the Raiders, and the Seahawks are now their new homes.
This year, the new GM drafted Xavier Legette, found rookie Jalen Coker, and then traded for Diontae Johnson.
All I am trying to express here is that this is 4-22 franchise over the course of the last two years and yet people are suggesting that because of this chaos, we have a real grasp on whether Jonathan Mingo can help the Dallas Cowboys. The Panthers haven’t done much right in many years and players fall through the cracks as they continue to spin in place. I am positive that their evaluation is not above reproach.
I feel like I might be taking crazy pills with all of that logic.
Meanwhile the 49ers are clearly one of the best QB franchises in the league because of Kyle Shanahan who has made every QB he has touched into the very best version of himself. From Matt Schaub to Matt Ryan, Jimmy Garoppolo to Brock Purdy, Shanahan knows the position and decided that despite even with the massive investment for the trade and contract of Trey Lance, he was done with him. When that team calls you, you better be watching your wallet. Then, the contract made no sense as we have written here a multitude of times. It expired on the same day as Dak Prescott’s deal. There was no way to play him or for him to succeed Prescott because of this contract issue. It was a very silly plan.
Whereas Mingo plays in a spot where you need to have three starters and only CeeDee Lamb is a starter in 2025. He is under his deal for the next two seasons at near league-minimum prices. And for those reasons, I am eager to see what the scouting department loved about him and still is willing to invest.
So, those are my three thoughts on a player I didn’t hardly think about until today. But, now I have gone through some film for a few hours and have some quick thoughts as a bonus.
FILM STUDY
This first cut-up is from his biggest target day as a NFL player. He was thrown 10 balls on this day in Tampa Bay and seemed to be a pretty productive guy. The downside is that it is his only big game as a pro and by “big” we mean 6 catches for 69 yards. So, what you see below is 2023 tape.
Now, there isn’t much in 2024, but I used his first five games to find seven other plays to show you. It is a very small sample. Let’s take a look.
Above you will see his big play against the Saints in Week 1 where he properly is part of a fire-drill and gets open and then shows some decent speed down the sideline.
Next, against the Raiders, he shows some nice strength and conviction as a lead blocker for a touchdown. That is a pancake block from a wide receiver and I definitely like to see that. Big and physical player with a little TE in his WR like Noah Brown.
The play above he is the No. 3 in the slot and receives a quick out before heading up the sideline. He has some bulk to his game and decent play-strength. Not saying this is Deebo Samuel, but it also is not KaVontae Turpin.
This is another TE/WR move that Dallas likes as he again channels some Noah Brown and runs that familiar TE route and then fights for yardage. You are starting to see how Carolina saw him. Lots of stuff in the quick game and then load him up for some YAC work.
Slot, quick out, battle for the sticks. Carolina gets the ball out quick so his vertical threats may be a mystery from a team that doesn’t pass protect well. But, his play strength is useful and he seems to be a physical WR who can also run a 4.46.
Here in Chicago, he runs a deep in (I guess - it seemed to be a 20-yard in which I am not really familiar with). Dalton passes it behind him and it is incomplete, but I didn’t mind the route here and I think that is a fairly convincing idea here. Didn’t hate it and a better throw is an explosive.
Good Canales concept frees him up and Dalton puts it out there. Again, a better throw might be a touchdown, but you see his wheels and how easy football is if nobody covers you.
The tape was not incredible but also not bad. He is 6’2, 220, runs a 4.46 and jumps nearly 40” so he is definitely full of twitch. Again, I am not here to say he is great or not because I don’t know. But, I also don’t think there are any signs this is a disaster. He is a young player who will now get a chance to demonstrate the scouts faith in him is worth a shot.
Consider it a case of your favorite baseball team taking a shot on a prospect who used to be on Baseball America’s Top 100 but has fallen out of favor. He is stuck in AA so you trade for him because he is just 23 and you think he is worth a shot and that his current organization is a train wreck and ruining him. You believe he is still in there and you have 9 months to get him ready for 2025 camp.
From that standpoint, it has a chance. And while I would rather get him for a 5th, I think the surplus of picks make a player with this talent at this age worth a look.
So, there is my conclusion: I don’t hate this move and am eager to see if he can redeem his reputation as a legitimate player in this league. He can now change the narrative.
Cowboys do something at the deadline that is not making many of their fans happy.
Bob Sturm
Nov 05, 2024
Almost as if the Cowboys could not bear the idea of the US Election having a bigger media presence than they did on this Tuesday, they kept their word to add a wide receiver at the deadline.
However, it was a wide receiver that surely nobody had on their radar. The Cowboys traded a good pick – we might even call it a very good pick – for 2023 2nd rounder Jonathan Mingo.
Mingo was drafted with the 39th overall pick by the Panthers and immediately became a starter as a rookie. However, he has since fallen down the depth chart and that is certainly not helping his perception or stock. I assume that when Carolina started shopping him, they never dreamed they would be able to get a 4th rounder back. But, they did. The Dallas Cowboys sent a 4th round pick for a guy who has 12 catches and 121 yards this season. Not in a game, mind you. In nine. Nine games and barely a dozen catches. He hasn’t caught a pass since October 13th and that day he caught one for one yard.
I’m not joking. One catch for one yard and then nothing for a month. Then, the Cowboys agree to send a very strong 4th rounder (and getting stronger with each loss!) to make this deal happen for Mingo.
On the surface, it looks bad. Really bad.
But, let’s dive in a bit and then look at some film on Jonathan Mingo.
These are My Three Thoughts:
– This is the type of trade that makes a lot of sense for a team with many roster needs, limited cap space, and many picks in the upcoming draft. There is a massive market inefficiency for flipping picks that would never be enough for a comparable talent for prospects that have already lost their “blue chip prospect” status and thus offer a bit of a lottery ticket value if you hit (but would not surprise anyone if it does not).
Now, there is a lot there and this isn’t a ton about Jonathan Mingo, in particular. This is the premise of using Day 3 picks to acquire Day 1 or Day 2 talents at a massive discount because of a slow start to their career. If you are the Cowboys and you are looking at roughly seven Day 3 picks between Rounds 4-6 and you find a Top 50-75 prospect that you desired in the 2023 or 2024 draft that suddenly becomes available, you should give it a lot of thought.
Obviously, this suggests that you wanted him on his draft day and that your intel is solid. If you feel like you have scouted the player exhaustively, studied what has transpired since his selection, and reconciled the developments, then go for it. You will get ridiculed because surely his disappointing start to his career has sunk his value with his current team, but this represents a real buy low opportunity. It is the exact opposite of what happens during draft season when a workout or a 40-time can raise someone a round or two. These are commodities and you liked him enough to place a grade on him. When the grade has been updated but still exceeds the asking price – and his rookie contract still holds about 65% of its initial term – then trust your drafting and scouting process and use one of your extra picks to take a shot. I have zero issue with that logic and am particularly encouraged because this is a pure scouting department play in that I don’t believe Jerry or Stephen have much casual knowledge of Mingo beyond the briefings and the visit in 2023.
They clearly liked him and he was 22 when they wanted to select him. He is 23 now. Yes, water has gone under the bridge, but let’s not act like that was ancient history. If he is healthy, he may require a fresh start with a new organization and if that is all he needs, well, he is not the first. Sometimes, the first place doesn’t work out. With a cap hit of $1.5m in 2025 and $1.9m in 2026, he will cost you just north of what you pay a long-snapper or about half of what you are going to pay your punter.
So, let me be clear: I don’t think this trade has much to do with 2024 at all. They just want to secure the player and add him to their group now, but for the next 2 years plus a nice runway to acclimate him with the operation now.
There is also those disingenuous claims online right now about the trade price of 32-year old wide outs who make $25m and are on an expiring contracts as a rental player only costing a 5th rounder. Don’t be distracted by this utter nonsense. This is a play for 2.5 years for a player on a tiny salary who would be part of your roster for several seasons. That is a play for a team getting bullpen help to close a pennant race. There is simply no comparison other than to get clicks from Cowboys fans who are enraged.
I don’t love the player at all and I certainly don’t love the GM’s judgement. But, this one feels like the type of market inefficiency that can be exploited. Just don’t expect the legions who engage in groupthink and sell Cowboys misery to support this move.
– If there is a position that I am targeting right now, wide receiver is probably the top one on the list because this franchise has managed to roster very few right now and the cost of a walk-in starter at this position is often a 1st or 2nd rounder. If this player turns out to be your WR2 or WR3 in 2025, you will be pretty pleased with the modest price.
The Cowboys have a major WR problem. In a recent game with everything on the line, they sent their punt returner on a deep route because their one true stud at the position was being crowded by many 49ers defenders. Therefore, a 5’7 punt returner was hit in both hands by a Dak Prescott 50-yard missile and he dropped the ball. Is it his fault? No. It is the fault of an organization that doesn’t have enough quality at maybe the most important numbers position that definitely requires both quantity and quality. Dallas may have neither right now in high supply.
Wide Receiver is a premium position. Just like tackle, pass rusher, cornerback, and of course, QB. For these spots, we must draft early to get the blue-chip guys. Running back is not. That is why people will tell you that the 4th rounder spent from Trey Lance or this one traded today would be your starting RB this season and they aren’t wrong.
But not one person has said that is where you would get a starting WR. Why? Because you cannot get a top WR in the 4th round unless you win the lottery. For instance, 21 receivers were taken after pick No. 79 in 2023 and I think one of them would be considered worthy of your fantasy team: Puka Nacua in the 5th. In 2022, there were 14 taken after pick No. 53 and there is one more: Romeo Doubs in the 4th. So, of the 2022-2023 draft classes after those two spots in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, you have 35 receivers and two of them are probably capable of starting in the NFL. This year we have 19 more Day 3 receivers and I am not sure there is a single one that will move the needle substantially. So, now the sample size is up to 54 or so and we have two real dudes.
Yes, if you want a young receiver, you better get them early. Real early. Top 50, most likely, or don’t bother because the leftovers are seldom able to rise up. There are many believers in Ryan Flournoy right now, but given that he was there in the 6th round tells us that the league isn’t terribly convinced he can do it. Now, what if I took a pick from the mid 4th – let’s call it No. 112 – and get you a guy who can come in and earn a starting spot in 2025 and make nearly nothing. Is that suddenly smart talent acquisition?
Now, you are surely saying that Mingo can’t be that guy. I will confess that I am only causally familiar with his tape because I did not do his profile at Ole Miss (I ran out of time) and I was not tracking him closely at Carolina. But, since you asked about the Panthers, let’s spend a moment here.
– Carolina has been an absolute train wreck of an organization for many years and the entirety of Mingo’s brief NFL career. To compare his situation to that of Trey Lance in San Francisco is enough to expel anyone from the conversation.
The circle of life for the bottom feeders in the NFL is pretty simple. Every few years they fire everyone. General Managers, Scouting departments, and full coaching staffs and then they start anew. Usually, they gut the roster and the old guy’s players get shipped off and the new guy wants to clear the deck and acquire picks so he can restart the clock with his guys and his vision of how this should work.
Mingo has played in 24 NFL games and has had three different coaches. Frank Reich, Chris Tabor, and now Dave Canales have been his coaches in the last 12 months. He was drafted by GM Scott Fitterer and traded by new GM Dan Morgan.
The offense has changed and the QBs have changed from Bryce Young to Andy Dalton back to Young and then to Dalton and we are back at Dalton again. His fellow receivers were Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, Terrace Marshall, and Laviska Shenault. Those four receivers have all been sent away from their current offense. Injured Reserve, the Chargers, the Raiders, and the Seahawks are now their new homes.
This year, the new GM drafted Xavier Legette, found rookie Jalen Coker, and then traded for Diontae Johnson.
All I am trying to express here is that this is 4-22 franchise over the course of the last two years and yet people are suggesting that because of this chaos, we have a real grasp on whether Jonathan Mingo can help the Dallas Cowboys. The Panthers haven’t done much right in many years and players fall through the cracks as they continue to spin in place. I am positive that their evaluation is not above reproach.
I feel like I might be taking crazy pills with all of that logic.
Meanwhile the 49ers are clearly one of the best QB franchises in the league because of Kyle Shanahan who has made every QB he has touched into the very best version of himself. From Matt Schaub to Matt Ryan, Jimmy Garoppolo to Brock Purdy, Shanahan knows the position and decided that despite even with the massive investment for the trade and contract of Trey Lance, he was done with him. When that team calls you, you better be watching your wallet. Then, the contract made no sense as we have written here a multitude of times. It expired on the same day as Dak Prescott’s deal. There was no way to play him or for him to succeed Prescott because of this contract issue. It was a very silly plan.
Whereas Mingo plays in a spot where you need to have three starters and only CeeDee Lamb is a starter in 2025. He is under his deal for the next two seasons at near league-minimum prices. And for those reasons, I am eager to see what the scouting department loved about him and still is willing to invest.
So, those are my three thoughts on a player I didn’t hardly think about until today. But, now I have gone through some film for a few hours and have some quick thoughts as a bonus.
FILM STUDY
This first cut-up is from his biggest target day as a NFL player. He was thrown 10 balls on this day in Tampa Bay and seemed to be a pretty productive guy. The downside is that it is his only big game as a pro and by “big” we mean 6 catches for 69 yards. So, what you see below is 2023 tape.
Now, there isn’t much in 2024, but I used his first five games to find seven other plays to show you. It is a very small sample. Let’s take a look.
Above you will see his big play against the Saints in Week 1 where he properly is part of a fire-drill and gets open and then shows some decent speed down the sideline.
Next, against the Raiders, he shows some nice strength and conviction as a lead blocker for a touchdown. That is a pancake block from a wide receiver and I definitely like to see that. Big and physical player with a little TE in his WR like Noah Brown.
The play above he is the No. 3 in the slot and receives a quick out before heading up the sideline. He has some bulk to his game and decent play-strength. Not saying this is Deebo Samuel, but it also is not KaVontae Turpin.
This is another TE/WR move that Dallas likes as he again channels some Noah Brown and runs that familiar TE route and then fights for yardage. You are starting to see how Carolina saw him. Lots of stuff in the quick game and then load him up for some YAC work.
Slot, quick out, battle for the sticks. Carolina gets the ball out quick so his vertical threats may be a mystery from a team that doesn’t pass protect well. But, his play strength is useful and he seems to be a physical WR who can also run a 4.46.
Here in Chicago, he runs a deep in (I guess - it seemed to be a 20-yard in which I am not really familiar with). Dalton passes it behind him and it is incomplete, but I didn’t mind the route here and I think that is a fairly convincing idea here. Didn’t hate it and a better throw is an explosive.
Good Canales concept frees him up and Dalton puts it out there. Again, a better throw might be a touchdown, but you see his wheels and how easy football is if nobody covers you.
The tape was not incredible but also not bad. He is 6’2, 220, runs a 4.46 and jumps nearly 40” so he is definitely full of twitch. Again, I am not here to say he is great or not because I don’t know. But, I also don’t think there are any signs this is a disaster. He is a young player who will now get a chance to demonstrate the scouts faith in him is worth a shot.
Consider it a case of your favorite baseball team taking a shot on a prospect who used to be on Baseball America’s Top 100 but has fallen out of favor. He is stuck in AA so you trade for him because he is just 23 and you think he is worth a shot and that his current organization is a train wreck and ruining him. You believe he is still in there and you have 9 months to get him ready for 2025 camp.
From that standpoint, it has a chance. And while I would rather get him for a 5th, I think the surplus of picks make a player with this talent at this age worth a look.
So, there is my conclusion: I don’t hate this move and am eager to see if he can redeem his reputation as a legitimate player in this league. He can now change the narrative.
