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By Bob Sturm 2h ago
Everyone knows what the franchise tag does to a player. It puts him on an extreme notice as being on a “prove it” deal. Of course, Dak Prescott has been playing in that realm on some level since 2012.
From the time he was a freshman at Mississippi State through last season on the final year of his rookie deal, Prescott has had those on both the inside and the outside hedging their bets against the QB’s future and whether he could achieve the next level or even maintain his current one. At Mississippi State, they wondered about what the program might be like with more than a three-star QB at the helm. In Dallas, they wondered about the ceiling of a fourth-round compensatory pick.
But let’s be honest here. Prescott has already proven enough to get almost $2 million for EACH of the 16 games he will play this season. It is guaranteed that he will bring in more than $30 million in salary for just these four months, and that alone should mean his kids and grandkids are financially secure. In other words, by any standard, he has proven it quite well. Regardless of whether he has convinced everyone on the planet, he is a complete success story without recording another touchdown. Doubted as a high school recruit and again as a professional prospect, Dak Prescott is a five-year NFL starter whose team has never posted a losing record.
That exceeds 99.9 percent of every football career ever.
So when entering the 2020 camp, we start to look at others who find themselves at a crossroads in their own careers. I know when you have a full roster, you can talk yourselves into many storylines for most players, as to how this is their “prove it” season and a massive chance to either raise their career trajectory or move closer to finding a different line of work. But these are the five that I have nominated as the players with the most at stake between now and New Year’s Day (in no real particular order but the alphabet).
Chidobe Awuzie – Cornerback – 25 years old
Chido has been a very nice player for the Cowboys and has never seemed even close to coming off the field. But he also has not seemed to take the proverbial next step in his development. Now he is able to use Byron Jones’ exit to be the top corner on the roster, even though the franchise quite clearly has staked a position that with the expiration of the 2017 draft contracts, they are not willing to commit to any of them being worth a top contract. Each team can afford 10 to 12 substantial deals on their roster, and everyone else has to either be on a rookie deal or a veteran “working class” arrangement.
Chido has already earned consideration for a nice second contract by virtue of all of the snaps he has played (over 2,600) and keeping his starting job at a very well-compensated spot on the field. But nobody would list him as a top-25 corner in the league, and Dallas has already taken two corners in the 2020 draft that they think will be able to slide in easily as starters soon. So he can either demand a tough decision in free agency for the team or make it incredibly easy.
He was a second-round pick who seemed to drip with potential, but two things jump out beside his incredible athleticism. First are the very familiar issues with finding the ball in the air. If you are always on the receiver’s hip but he is still catching it because you are unaware of the ball’s arrival, you cannot be an effective corner. Second, there is some question of whether his best skill might be more of a slot or even a safety, as he was at Colorado. So his range of outcomes seems to be either earning a four-year, $40 million-type deal or a one-year, $2 million short-term offer somewhere else in 2021. That is a very wide range.
Blake Jarwin – Tight End – 26 years old
This one might shock people because Jarwin just signed a four-year contract that raised eyebrows and was given the starting job at tight end. But the details of the deal tell us he has 2020 fully guaranteed and very little beyond that. Should Dallas wish to upgrade next Spring, there is nothing problematic enough to prevent them from shopping at a position that has seen so many resources dumped into it since they found Jason Witten in 2003 but failed to develop another among Anthony Fasano, Martellus Bennett, Gavin Escobar, Dalton Schultz, Rico Gathers, James Hanna, John Phillips and countless other names.
Well, here comes a home-grown developmental player who they really like for his ability to get down the seam. But is he a full-service tight end, or more of a player who has limitations as anything beyond a decent pass catcher who can’t really block or pass protect? He has had two seasons to convince us either way, and there have been plenty of flashes, but nothing that chased them off an old version of Witten. He will forever leave the Cowboys wanting if he doesn’t develop the ability to really threaten defenses as a blocker in a zone scheme and the power to pin so the offensive line can pull around him. If you are a receiving-only threat, you had better do more than 1.9 catches per game to justify the money that has been written in his deal as largely a pay-as-you-play. So while they sort of married him, there are avenues for a divorce if 2020 doesn’t feature a 50-catch, 500-yard year with some strong blocking grades.
Jourdan Lewis – Slot Corner – 25 years old
Lewis is one of the players who had the highest hopes from the fanbase and perhaps even the football operations staff. But he has never fully won a job or demanded more of a role. There is no doubt that he has ability, but surely the expectation on draft day in 2017 was that he would overtake Anthony Brown in the lineup on a more regular basis. Not only did he never fully do that, but now the Cowboys granted Brown a full three-year extension to maintain his spot despite the coaching changes.
Lewis has a real flair to find the ball and to perhaps even be considered a ballhawk, yet something has always been missing. He makes big plays, but on a down-by-down basis, he does not cover well enough. He is limited athletically by NFL standards, and therefore he might be the player who is good enough to make a good living in the NFL for six to eight years but doesn’t reach the level that gets premium deals. This season might be his last chance to seize this moment in time. He is in the final year of his deal, and you would suspect that only one-year deals await if he does not really pop in 2020, especially considering the rookie class at the position and Brown entrenched in the slot on his new, affordable deal.
He is quick to talk the talk, but he needs to demonstrate he can walk the walk at this level.
Connor Williams – Left Guard – 23 years old
I wrote an entire piece about Williams a few months ago and the very clear crossroads he’s reached. He is only entering Year Three, so unlike several other players on this list, he is not out of contract at the end of the season. But he might run out of patience, as he has now played in two seasons in the NFL and has really not graded out well in either one for a stretch longer than a few weeks or strung together three healthy months.
The general issues have been in run blocking more than pass blocking, but make no mistake, he can be isolated and attacked by some of the physical freaks who play defensive tackle in the NFL. As a rookie, it seemed he lacked the physical strength that sets the tone for every snap, but an offseason of getting bigger and stronger did not seem to help in a large enough way to erase his general issues. However, it must be noted that he is only 23 years old and only in his third season, so while this is a “prove it” year, he does have an outside chance at more time than the others.
But with 2019 third-round pick Connor McGovern waiting in the wings, Williams might need to take advantage of being the incumbent starter. As a former second-round pick himself, it is high time he plays a full season and improves his performance to at least “acceptable” standards of play. La’el Collins’ deal means any fallback plan of playing right tackle is over, so while Williams looks the part, he needs to quiet any remaining concerns with his play.
Xavier Woods – Safety – 25 years old
Our last player on a prove-it year is the man who has played almost 3,000 snaps in three years and has never really been exposed as poor. But he also has not taken the final step toward becoming the rare “playmaking safety” the team has lacked for so long. To be completely honest and transparent here, I am guilty of forecasting Woods as the 2019 breakout player on this defense, and it feels like that was a swing and a miss. He has always been a decent enough safety net, but nothing close to a playmaker on a consistent basis. That is probably why most of us are now assuming he is what he is, and that is why the endless searches for Earl Thomas and Jamal Adams continue on and on.
We could argue that 2019 was his best coverage year as a full-time starter but also his poorest year as a safety who can tackle and end plays immediately. He was nearly run over a few times by various ball carriers, including Saints QB Taysom Hill. One would have to believe that it’s vital Xavier demonstrates he is better than decent in the final year of his deal and the only one in which his starting partner will not be Jeff Heath. Decent is fine at on a sixth-round pick’s wages, but when it is time to offer multiple years at substantially more money, it is no longer worth a very moderate level of play that can be described as low ceiling and medium floor. You cannot pay high dollars for moderate play. He still has a chance, but he might not have the top side that makes teams stop shopping for your replacement.
You can come up with others, but these are the five players who have careers that can still go either way. In five years, we might look back at 2020 as the year that cast the die and proved to be their turning points. But now they must prove it.
