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By Bob Sturm 4h ago
“Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.” – Mark Twain
2019 was the first year in a long time when the Cowboys offense occasionally looked like a dominant and dynamic machine. Some say 2014, but I think you can suggest that last year’s offense was even better than that in certain respects. All told, when you combine the production and the scheme, we could argue that the Dallas offense had its best year in more than a decade. It may have been as powerful as any year since the dynasty of the 1990s.
That is a pretty bold claim for a team that went 8-8 and missed the playoffs.
And this is where things get very murky. This conversation happens in some form or fashion on the internet every day between football fans. On one side, Dak Prescott has a personal resume that is well above reproach in 2019. On the other side, the team went 8-8 and missed the playoffs. Critics point to that and say success isn’t about personal accomplishments; it is about the fate of the team. The irony, of course, is that in 2016 and 2018, when the team marched all the way to division crowns and the playoffs, the Prescott faction would point to those difficult accomplishments, at which point the critics would argue that it isn’t about the team – QBs were to be evaluated on personal goals.
Basically, if Dak Prescott ever wins a Super Bowl while winning an NFL MVP, he will have turned everyone in his favor. Other than that, we have assumed that he will always have a crowd of Cowboys enthusiasts who just will not be flipped.
Frustrating, but true. It is happening as we speak somewhere on Twitter or Reddit, or perhaps even in person (with masks and social distancing, of course).
Luckily for all of us, this story isn’t about Dak. But in some respects, we arrive at a very similar conversation. This piece is about one of the hottest names in the offensive coordinator game these days: Kellen Moore.
Moore was handed the reins to the Cowboys offense when Scott Linehan was shown the door. Most around the league seem to agree that the modernization of the offense was rather substantial. Football Outsiders pointed out that maybe the advancements weren’t revolutionizing the NFL, but they heavily complimented the “pre-snap motion and route concepts that properly spaced out receivers compared to the stagnant design of the 2018 offense.”
We saw immediate results, as the Cowboys totaled 97 points in a trio of blowout victories that had the masses wondering if the sky was the limit. Might the team end up playing so well that the franchise would give massive new contracts to their coach and quarterback? If they continued this for another 13 weeks, would Kellen Moore be a head coach somewhere in the NFL by Valentine’s Day of 2020?
Obviously, you can get out over your skis when you start 3-0 and destroy all of your opponents with ease. Ultimately, though, the smoldering wreckage of the Cowboys’ season was laid bare for all to see on the turf at Soldier Field in Chicago and then the turf at the Linc in Philadelphia. Dallas had gone 4-8 in their next 12 games, the narrative quickly changing. They were a complete and total fraud.
The reasons were a combination of these two ideas:
- Their first three games came against the New York Giants, Washington and Miami. Those three teams would remain among the NFL’s worst, offering very little resistance to opposing attacks. That explains how Dallas was able to score whenever they were interested in doing so.
- They were a new offense. New offenses require a few weeks of study before the league can fully understand the scheme, then pivot to decoding and exploiting its weaknesses. Coaches really believe there is a titanic shift in tactics after about Week 3 or 4 in any season, with new coaches and the “film getting out on them.” Opponents throw counter-punches, but they don’t all hit. Those that do are carefully noted. It would seem very normal for a coach to confuse the first few opponents, only to see gradually less surprise the more the word gets around on their tendencies.
Arguing football is pretty silly some times.
Anyway, play-action passing dropped substantially after Week 3. By the end of the season, the Cowboys’ play-action numbers were almost identical to what they were in 2018. The good news is that they actually were far more productive in non-play-action passing because the QB and the passing game were far more lethal. When the public wanted to play the blame game, though, it went back to familiar foes.
Here’s what we should be asking about 2019: Was the offense as good as we think, or was this simply an 8-8 team? Statistics are pliable, but what if the team was 8-8 for a number of reasons and most of those don’t actually fall on the QB and the OC? What if the coach was actually losing them chances at success? What if the defense was inconsistent? What if the special teams dragged them down a few feet in a game of inches?
Dallas was one of five teams to score at least 32 points per game in the first three weeks of 2019. Let’s look at those five teams for a brief moment.
Top offenses last September
| TEAM | WK 1-3 | WK 1-3 PPG | WK 4-17 | WK 4-17 PPG | TOTAL W-L | TOTAL PPG | OUTCOME |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Baltimore | 2-1 | 36.6 | 12-1 | 32.4 | 14-2 | 33.2 | AFC 1 Seed |
 New England | 3-0 | 35.3 | 9-4 | 24.1 | 12-4 | 26.3 | AFC 3 Seed |
 Kansas City | 3-0 | 33.6 | 9-4 | 26.9 | 12-4 | 28.2 | SB Champ |
 Dallas | 3-0 | 32.3 | 5-8 | 25.9 | 8-8 | 27.1 | |
 San Francisco | 3-0 | 32 | 10-3 | 29.4 | 13-3 | 29.9 | SB Loss |
As you can see, they have lofty company. Two Super Bowl teams, the biggest juggernaut in the NFL in 2019 and the Patriots. Based on popular media explanations, you will be left to see that the other teams had legit offenses that stood the test of time. The Cowboys, on the other hand, were not legit. They were frauds. I mean, after all, the Chiefs scored more points than they did over the final 13 weeks of the season.
Wait, I’m sorry. That isn’t completely true.
From Weeks 4-17 over the final 13 games of each team’s season, the Dallas offense scored 10 more points than the Chiefs offense. Even if you subtract the weaklings at the start of the season, Dallas’ offense scored the fifth-most points in the NFL the rest of the way. Maybe they didn’t just beat up on the pitiful. Maybe Kellen Moore wasn’t completely figured out. And maybe that is why Mike McCarthy wants to keep him despite almost entirely discarding Jason Garrett’s old staff.
For now, I will avoid the whispers from last season’s Cowboys team that once the adversity started to hit (which included Tyron Smith’s high-ankle sprain in New Orleans), Garrett grabbed a big part of the tactical steering wheel and reeled in the offense to more closely resemble the conservative approach that makes him comfortable. Like I said, that is largely anecdotal and would require a fair amount of contortion to confirm or deny.
I do think we can at least check a number of offensive variables from 2019 and see where the team’s attack ranked over the course of those two samples: (Weeks 1-3 and Weeks 4-17) to test the theories that the league figured out Kellen Moore and Dak Prescott. Does that really explain everything you need to know about the 8-8 record?
Dallas Offensive Ranks (out of 32)
| OFFENSIVE CATEGORY | WK 1-3 | WK 4-17 | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 4th | 6th | 6th |
| Yards | 3rd | 1st | 1st |
| Pass Yds | 4th | 2nd | 2nd |
| YPA | 4th | 5th | 4th |
| Pass FDs | 8th | 4th | 5th |
| Sacked/Att | 1st | 2nd | 2nd |
| 3rd Down % | 1st | 3rd | 2nd |
| Rush Yds | 3rd | 10th | 5th |
| Rush FDs | 3rd | 7th | 4th |
| Giveways (few) | 4th | 11th | 9th |
| Explosive plays | 5th | 3rd | 3rd |
| Drive Score % | 4th | 5th | 4th |
| Red Zone TD% | 4th | 24th | 15th |
This tells me what I believe I already knew intuitively. It just verifies it.
There is no question the Cowboys offense lacked a bit of efficiency down the stretch. With a few more timely moments, they would have won 10 games, won their division and probably won Jason Garrett a new contract. Their red-zone efficiency, in particular, was poor. When you combine that with a poor kicker and even worse special teams and coaching, you get this.
But, overall, look at the year-long rankings. Look at the production. These numbers demonstrably were not simply put up by ambushing bad teams. I realize it is no fun being fair to hometown guys who have not accomplished anything, but the amount of leeway given to other teams — against a ridiculous standard of demands on Prescott and Kellen Moore — has always been ridiculous around here.
This team needed an overhaul, but blaming the offensive coordinator and quarterback is just absurd. They produced on a level that was closer to Kansas City and Baltimore than almost any team in football, and yet those offenses are heralded as amazing and some of the biggest Cowboys fans think their own group is trash.
It just doesn’t hold any water.
If football is all about “three phases,” then I must tell you again that I think the phase that gets the most publicity and segments with the talk shows is undoubtedly the phase that matters least to a potential massive improvement in 2020.
I assume McCarthy knows this, which is why he has Kellen Moore at the helm and plans to combine the offensive coordinator’s acumen with the McCarthy diet of extreme early-down passing and very aggressive fourth-down postures. This coach has shown for years that he will hardly resemble Jason Garrett at all. I wrote all about that in January; you might wish to dive in and re-familiarize with it now, because January feels a very long time ago.
In season two, Kellen will have a few new toys and a new initiative to attack. I think we saw plenty to build upon in 2019. Adding CeeDee Lamb and Blake Jarwin in spots where veterans took just about all the snaps in 2019 will help.
The Cowboys have a chance to really put up numbers this year. I wonder if people will notice this time if the team wins more than it loses.
