Sturm - Nahshon Wright film analysis: Reach or not, the Cowboys are betting on cornerback’s ideal traits

boozeman

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Nahshon Wright film analysis: Reach or not, the Cowboys are betting on cornerback’s ideal traits


By Bob Sturm 2h ago

As we continue our journey through the 2021 Cowboys draft class, I must make a brief confession. I stalled a bit on this study of third-round cornerback Nahshon Wright from Oregon State for a few reasons. In fairness, he should have been a subject of this study a few weeks ago, but I skipped him in the order at least twice.

I am not suggesting that I had my mind made up, but the following reasons caused my delay in enthusiasm:

1. Unlike almost every other player in the first two days in this draft class, I had never heard of this player. That could be my fault alone, but for someone who studies the draft pretty hard for over three months, I had never heard of him at all. Crazy for that to be a Top 100 pick by any team, but moreso, the Cowboys after all these years.
2. I was acutely aware that Dallas was riding on its own on this one. He was ranked way lower than this almost universally. If the Cowboys are right about Wright, they can probably say they were on their own for this success story.

3. I was just flat-out more excited with the other players and saw the need as more pressing.

But, there is little doubt that point No. 2 is the big one. Dallas appears to have drastically over-drafted the industrial draft complex in this matter.
Let me demonstrate using our very own draft expert, Dane Brugler.

Brugler ranks every player in his annual guide and history shows he knows what he is doing (I have been a Brugler enthusiast long before either of us joined The Athletic). I have his annual guide since 2014 and while he is not a prophet, he definitely has a track record that demonstrates more often than not, he is approximately correct.

Well, here is a table that is one source of the fandom “freak out” that has been going around:

2021 Draft - Cornerbacks
PLAYER
TEAM
CB TAKEN
BRUGLER RANK
Jaycee HornCarolina12
Patrick SurtainDenver21
Caleb FarleyTennessee34
Greg NewsomeCleveland43
Eric StokesGreen Bay57
Tyson CampbellJacksonville69
Kelvin JosephDallas78
Asante SamuelLos Angeles Chargers85
Aaron RobinsonNew York Giants911
Benjamin St JusteWashington1021
Paulson AdeboNew Orleans1112
Nahshon WrightDallas1238
Elijah MoldenTennessee136
Ifeatu MelifonwuDetroit1410
Ambry ThomasSan Francisco1514
As you can see, nobody deviated more than Dallas who picked the 12th CB on the board with the 99th pick in the draft and in doing so took what Brugler thought was the 38th best corner.


In his opinion, that makes him a Round 7 pick or a priority free agent. But, it wasn’t just Brugler who had him out of the top 30 in the positional rankings. Ourlads Draft guide thought he was the 35th corner. Todd McShay had him 34th. The Draft Network ranked him as the 48th corner. Lance Zierlein of NFL.com saw him as a seventh-rounder.

We should be clear: Draft prospect rankings are definitely not an exact science and they don’t mean much down the road. They also do not apply to the specific template a single team is looking for, nor should we want our team to conform or care what a national ranking system (media or not) would say about a player when we expect the front office and the scouts of our team to do blind grading (not cross-referencing in the group-think world of rankings) and come up with their own individual grade. If the Cowboys know what the Cowboys seek and don’t even have 25 of the top 40 corners on their board because they don’t fit the recipe and profile, that is a Moneyball approach that is either genius or insanity.

Like I said, maybe Dan Quinn is right and everyone above is wrong. Maybe he never considered anyone on this list who didn’t check his necessary boxes for height and length that he looks for in a corner. Maybe he was interested in a converted offensive player who is raw in the position and believes that this guy just needs a bit more development. Or maybe he is wrong and this draft pick will be one of many players in this range that Dallas has whiffed on in this generation. Charles Tapper, Chaz Green, David Arkin, Brandon Williams, Isaiah Stanback and Stephen Peterman. All drafted between picks 80-120 and all failed to provide Dallas with even a little bit of sixth-round value despite being taken in Rounds 3 and 4.

Time will tell and the rankings will be tested with the finished product. Dallas has a specific list of wishes for a prospect and followed it perfectly, but obviously also feared that someone else might be hot on his selection, too. Otherwise, if Wright is taken late fourth or early fifth, nobody would really care too much.
But, he wasn’t. He was taken before Brugler’s sixth-ranked corner, also the 10th ranked, 13th, 15th, and many, many more corners. He was 38th and taken as the 12th.
The question isn’t whether he was a reach or not. He was. It was how big of a reach was he? And it appears on paper that the reach was a very big one.
Yet, like so many who fell through the cracks, time will tell the truth.


Having established all of that, let’s try to leave it alone and just do the job of watching three games of his most recent season and evaluating what the player can do, what he can’t do, and generally try to see what Dallas was seeing in him.

Nahshon Wright — Oregon State — Redshirt JR — Oakland — Born: 9/23/97 (age 23) — No. 2

I can tell you a lot of interesting things about Wright here, but I think it would be silly not to start with the measurements from Mockdraftable.com here and pretty much allow that to explain everything.

Blue squares are the top 25 percentile at the position and red squares are bottom 25 percentiles (or s0).



It appears the attraction is pretty typical for a Quinn prospect of any position. He has incredible size and length — 99 percent for height, 91 percent for arm length, and 83 percent for wingspan. As it stands, he is about as big of a corner as you will find. He does match Richard Sherman in many of these measurables, both good and bad.
And bad? Well, yes. Note the red squares where his weight is curiously very low-end. His quickness and explosive traits are all very low. His bench press is comical and his 20-yard shuttle is off the board. His 40 is better than Sherman and his 20-yard shuttle is actually not much worse. Quick is just not what they do. Sherman has a much better vertical leap, whereas Wright has a better broad jump by a small margin.

Deal breakers? No. This is all very typical of Quinn’s scheme and ideas. Of course, it is also a bit extreme, even by those standards. But, we do know that he likes a type and that is why he didn’t want to regret not getting someone who is way off the charts in the direction of size and length.

However, let’s be clear here. Measurables are nice to look at, but the real items of interest and intrigue should be whether the man can play a high level of football.
It didn’t seem promising out of high school as he was unranked and a non-qualifier academically. But, he kept going and after virtually two years of no football, he returned in junior college in 2018 to take up the sport again. He switched to cornerback from wide receiver and that really demonstrated his nose for the ball. This generated interest from Boise State and San Diego State, before Oregon State swooped in and gave him a Power 5 option which he pursued.

He played two years in Corvallis and led Oregon State in interceptions both seasons, meaning he has played three seasons at cornerback in his life and has always led his team in picks. Far more impressively, he led the Pac-12 in interceptions for the two seasons combined that he played there. He clearly can handle the ball like a former receiver as a defensive back.


(Stats courtesy of sports-reference.com)

His specialty was getting his hands on the ball, but he also can cover pretty well and there wasn’t much given up in those three games — which constituted half of the six games from 2020’s entirety.

What was the general downside? Honestly, he has certain things he does great and other things he doesn’t do well. But from my study, it seemed that when in those deep-third schemes where he can either play press, press-bail, or off and soft as a corner who will allow some zone action in front of him, but very little behind him. Further, he is featuring the length to recover and still defend and break up passes and able to always get in there and not concede much of anything.
In the post-draft press conference, Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy touted Wright and also Quinn’s personal endorsement to demonstrate how they had him tabbed as a real draft weekend target. “Nahshon Wright, love his length. I really like his path through his career, the receiver skills. Dan Quinn was up at the Oregon State workout. We love the tape going into it. His ability to play with length but to also go and track the ball. Some of our guys compared him to Trevon (Diggs) as far as his ability to track the football.”

Again, you have three third-round picks and two fourth-rounders, you possibly talk yourself into things that you might not normally do. That probably includes trying to sort out what order to take them in to ensure you capitalize on the most. We mentioned before that this was probably where LB Jabril Cox fit better for value, but they then thought his position allows him to be likely to fall. Corners usually don’t fall and since beauty is in the eye of the beholder, the other Seattle-based clone defenses of which there are still quite a few might grab their target in front of them and Quinn certainly didn’t want that to happen.

I expected to not like his film, mostly due to the consensus from everyone who debated whether he was worth a late Day 3 pick at all, let alone one in the Top 100 where you hope to find starters. What I found was a guy who used in his comfortable schemes looks more than capable in the three games I studied (vs. Oregon, Utah and Washington) to possibly become a developing prospect of decent promise.

Enough about general observations, let’s get down to some plays I earmarked for you to see since we have Pac-12 video to use here. I always smile a little bigger when the team is blessed with a few prospects from conferences that are still nice about our teaching tools.

Film study
Nov. 14, 2020, at Washington



The No. 1 thing that people say about Wright is that his quickness limits his upside. I want to start with this first pass, because I think it shows that while the testing scores may be pedestrian and while his short-area quickness might be a concern, he has the long wheels and the hips in space to be fine. This is often where you would see real issues. He has to play the two-way go against a receiver to the field. He has to cheat that this could go to the left sideline. He gets his body turned all the way around and still easily stays on top of the post and arrives before the ball with the receiver underneath him. I think this shows that he is plenty athletic to handle this sort of duty for Dallas. You prefer never to do the full turn and have your back to the throw, but the strides and the expert ability to find the ball are evident.



Here he is dealing with how he will most normally be attacked. If you are facing Cover 3 or some deep corners taking away the sticks in a zone, you always hit them with a fair number of quick game opportunities to the edge. This can happen a number of ways, but bubble screens are the choice more often than not. Just like in the last play, I would give Wright a look at free safety if corner doesn’t work because in both of these cases, he has that center fielder ability on display. His tackles are not always like this (and he does weigh 180!), but this is great work here.



Same play, end zone angle. Job 1 is to make sure you contain and don’t give up the sideline. Job 2 is to get him to the ground. He isn’t the world’s best tackler, but this is clearly one of his finest efforts.



And then here is where he should excel. Man on an island in press in the red zone. Take the inside stuff away and force to the corner and then recover from trail when the ball arrives. Use your length to make any catches difficult and fight your tail off.



Here is the same play from the end zone. A better throw probably beats Wright and that is likely the difference between Saturdays and Sundays in this sport. Also, Wright has a blessing and a curse with his long arms and reach. You can break up more plays and get to the ball more. You can also get more flags because your arms appear to be “all over” your opponent unless you play perfect technique. This was pretty good here, but probably borderline to draw a flag. I liked this tape.

Two weeks later, the Oregon tape was even better.

Nov. 27, 2020, vs. Oregon


This was probably the bothersome clip of the game and he got it out of the way early. We attack Cover 3 with “taking what is given”, but obviously, if you have the deep third and are conceding 9.5 yards, you better close out the play and not over-run the tackle effort and give up another 10. He really wasn’t close on this tackle effort and it set the tone for a very spirited battle with his rival No. 2 jersey Devon Williams of Oregon who certainly had a night as well.



Here is what you have to love as the fog drifts in. Williams went at Wright again when the quarter changed with a similar look and this time new Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough got lucky that this wasn’t taken back to the house because Wright was sitting on it.



Shough commits the cardinal sin of missing on the inside on an out route and Wright demonstrates he is quick enough. He surely is upset he didn’t catch this cleaner because there is nothing in his way.



If I were to bet, this play in a Cowboys draft meeting was studied and it gave everyone the Richard Sherman warm and fuzzies. Here he is up top in press, but he also knows his Cover 3 responsibilities. I think it is pretty remarkable to have your man on a vertical, but to peek at the quarterback shows comfort and awareness and then peel off and make a pick because the No. 2 receiver to your side is trying to get underneath you to the sideline. Not only does Wright see it and address it, but he even swings the game with this interception. Brilliant.



As you can see, this is one big man and Shough was flirting with disaster when he was in Wright’s range on this night in Corvallis.



Whoever said he is slow is talking about short-area speed, not long speed. Between his 4.49 time and his length, you aren’t burning by him often. On this play, the Ducks are going back to this go-route, but I think you will see from the end zone that the length wins again.



Find the ball (careful not to get there early) and break it up. Again, like Kelvin Joseph, this guy finds the ball. You have to love that.



One more play, as this is late in the game. Oregon is down 41-38 and this is their last chance. And trust me, Oregon State has one win since 2007 in this rivalry, so they must hold on here. Williams is going to widen him out and hit the post. Shough is trying to give his best receiver a chance. Wright sits wide and then knows he can recover and close and also knows that his chances at the catch point are as good as anyone’s because he is so tall and so long.



This one might hurt, but it is worth it to preserve what might have been the biggest win during his two years there at Oregon State. You have to love the way he attacked the ball and made sure that he got to it with the game hanging in the balance.
This player is far from flawless, but also far from worthless. Not sure there are 37 corners better than what I saw in the three games I studied. The good news is that with Trevon Diggs, Joseph and even Reggie Robinson on the outside, Wright has time to develop on the side with Quinn and take their time. But, if this is a fourth cornerback prospect, well, I can tell you that depth has really improved around here and you can never have too much talent at this position.

I think Wright has tremendous possibilities and a team that did not pick him by accident. They targeted him and are willing to invest in his future and use him properly.

Now, let’s see them do just that.
 
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Cotton

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Told y'all. Championship.
 

p1_

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no damn plays man!
 

Chocolate Lab

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I just don't see how the shuttle and 3 cone aren't a problem playing corner. And the 10 and 20 yard splits. Lousy vertical doesn't help either.
 

Furboy

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I liked this pick on draft night. Reminds me a bit of Sherman.
 

Foobio

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I just don't see how the shuttle and 3 cone aren't a problem playing corner. And the 10 and 20 yard splits. Lousy vertical doesn't help either.
Agreed. His lack of quickness and strength isn‘t encouraging. Will be interesting to see how he adapts to the speed of the pro game.
 

shoop

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Still don’t like where they picked him but he does seem to have a nose for the ball. If that translates he may have a good career.
 

Cowboysrock55

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And who was the last guy who was considered over-drafted that carved out a stellar career?
For the Cowboys I certainty can't recall. Hell for most fans we can pick out the obviously bad picks and are right.
 

UncleMilti

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Where are the damn video clips in the story?? Bullshit!
 
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Simpleton

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I just don't see how the shuttle and 3 cone aren't a problem playing corner. And the 10 and 20 yard splits. Lousy vertical doesn't help either.
As a pure cover-3 outside CB I think it could work out since you're using the sideline as an extra defender and funneling guys inside to other zone defenders while kind of just using size/length to stay on top and be physical down the field.

This was obviously 100% a Quinn pick and he likely doesn't fit in most schemes, but if Quinn is around here for a while I could see him working out.

On the flip side I could easily see him flaming out in 2 years because Quinn is gone and he doesn't fit especially well in most other schemes, or he just isn't that talented, or both.
 
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