Sturm/Machota: Cowboys survey, Part 2 - When Dallas will return to the Super Bowl and thoughts on Dak Prescott’s contract

[Cotton]

By Jon Machota and Bob Sturm 4h ago

Last week, you answered our 25-question fan survey focusing on the 2021 Dallas Cowboys. We asked you about Dak Prescott, Mike McCarthy, Dan Quinn, Ezekiel Elliott and a whole lot more. You can check out the survey results from more than 1,300 people here. Over the next few weeks, The Athletic’s Cowboys experts — Jon Machota and Bob Sturm — are going to let you know what they think about some of the survey questions.

Here’s the second installment looking at their thoughts on 10 questions (here’s what Jon and Bob said in Part 1):

How long before the Cowboys get back to the Super Bowl?

Machota: Somewhere between five and 10 years, but I’ll go with five if I have to pick one. Quarterback is by far the most important position in the sport and Dak Prescott is good enough to lead the Cowboys to a Super Bowl. If they fall short the next few years, Mike McCarthy will be replaced and the next coach will be hired with the same goal that McCarthy had, get the Cowboys back to the Super Bowl. There won’t be a rebuild. As long as Prescott is healthy and they have the right coach, I think Will McClay and company will put together a good enough supporting cast to get the franchise back to the top. If the 2017 Eagles can get hot at the right time with a backup QB and win a Super Bowl, why can’t the Cowboys do something similar over the next five years?

Sturm: I am willing to take a chance here and say it will happen in the next three years. The NFC looks like it might have a QB reload to consider with very few conference QBs hitting their “late 20s prime” with Prescott joined by … almost nobody else. Drew Brees is gone, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson might be aging out, Tom Brady is someone we have no idea about, but otherwise, who are the heavyweight contenders in the NFC? Kyler Murray? Matt Stafford? Justin Fields? It would seem Prescott has a real chance and so do the Cowboys. Three years is a gutsy call, but I am going for it. I think it can happen.

How did you feel about the Cowboys hiring Dan Quinn as their defensive coordinator?

Machota: Loved it. There isn’t another candidate that I thought would be a better option. Quinn’s defensive resume is impressive and he gives the defense a coordinator with a head coach mentality. Having watched every game and every practice open to reporters last year, I think that’s exactly what this defense needs.

Sturm: Loved it. There are very few defensive coordinator hires where you get someone of this pedigree. I don’t think he is going to follow the same blueprints in Seattle (which makes me happy, because the NFL is not the same league and he doesn’t have the same talent), but he will vary his approach to attempt to make sure he gives this defense a chance. Then, the personnel is improved. Still the weaker side, but Quinn is a masterstroke.

Dan Quinn (Tim Heitman / USA Today)

How did you feel about Dak Prescott’s new contract?

Machota: I think fans should be very happy about the deal. It can be debated that they overpaid a little to get it done, but that was the going rate on the next NFL franchise quarterback up for a contract. I think those who are critical of the deal will feel a little bit better after Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield sign their next contracts. The most important thing for the Cowboys is they have their guy and they don’t have to potentially spend the next 3-5 years trying to find his replacement. There’s certainly no guarantee that they would’ve immediately done that this offseason.

Sturm: Probably, somewhere in between the answers. It is tough to be “very happy” to know you have paid him as much as a quarterback can possibly be paid, but it should make everyone happy to know the position is locked in with a very good player. Now, the Cowboys have to make the roster work and he has to deliver the quality of play that is required of that level of compensation. It could very well be a time when he is under the microscope more than ever, but he is capable of much more than most seem to admit.

Who is the most underrated player on the roster?

Machota: I have no issue with Michael Gallup and Tony Pollard getting the most fan votes here, but I’d probably go with who finished No. 3: DeMarcus Lawrence. I understand that his contract makes most think he must get double-digit sacks every season for the deal to be worth the investment. And his sack numbers need to be better than they have been the previous two years. But I also think he’s unquestionably the team’s best defender and he’s a factor in so many more ways than just getting sacks.

Sturm: DeMarcus Lawrence, easily. He has been a plus player for almost every season and has been this team’s defensive leader and yet you still have to convince people he is really good. His 2020 wasn’t quite to his normal level, so I would like to see a better 2021 out of him. But, folks, there is much more to life than raw sack totals.

Who is the most overrated player on the roster?

Machota: Jaylon Smith. He’s in the prime of his career and paid to be one of the NFL’s best linebackers. He started all 16 games last year and some will point out that he led the team in tackles for the second consecutive season. Yet, the franchise addressed his position this offseason by adding its most notable free agent in Keanu Neal and top draft pick in Micah Parsons.

Sturm: Ezekiel Elliott. I don’t mean to belabor this point, but the draft investment and the cash investment in a player who is popular, but extremely limited in this modern NFL continues to befuddle me. If only he was a dynamic pass catcher, I would never say this, but he is a very basic-route player and does not have the ability to morph into a receiver when they need it, so I hope he continues to sell a lot of jerseys.

What grade would you give the Cowboys for their offseason?

Machota: B. Getting Prescott signed and making the change from Mike Nolan to Quinn at defensive coordinator was a good start. A few decent pieces were added in free agency, and Parsons should be an immediate impact player from the draft. But there are too many questions surrounding the entire draft class for me to go any higher than a B.

Sturm: A solid B or B-, but much of that is the offseason allowed them to clean up their coaching staff and to get their injured veterans healed. That and hitting the defense with upgrades all over should serve them well for the next several seasons. For a team with no cap room, to get the Prescott deal done and to add that many young prospects and Quinn, I was pretty happy overall.

Not including Micah Parsons, which 2021 draft pick will make the biggest impact this season?

Machota: It should be Kelvin Joseph, but there’s no guarantee. We didn’t get to see much from him during organized team activities and minicamp. A big training camp would go a long way. The Cowboys would love for Joseph to earn the other outside starting cornerback spot opposite Trevon Diggs. If he fails to secure that job, the biggest impact could end up coming from third-round pick Osa Odighizuwa. That defensive tackle position just seems wide open at this point.

Sturm: Kelvin Joseph, I should think. Most of the rest of that rookie class will have a hard time getting the same level of early opportunities, but I would sure think Joseph can start from opening night on. He will take his lumps, but the Cowboys with Joseph and Diggs on the outside should be pretty salty.

If you could get a contract extension done with only one of these players before the season started, who would it be?

Machota: Randy Gregory. I think Gallup is an outstanding player, but the price tag for him is likely going to be too expensive. I think Gregory could be had on a much more team-friendly deal. It’s also much more difficult to find standout edge rushers than it is to find No. 3 wide receivers. Gallup is better than a No. 3, but that’s where he’s likely going to remain as long as Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb are healthy.

Sturm: Gallup is probably the consensus and maybe the one of higher impact, but I would be tempted to put a smaller deal on Gregory and get that in the bag. Gallup might end up being a $15 million-a-year player so you have to choose between his future and that of Cooper. But, with Gregory, if he is what I think he is, then you can have an edge at age 29 locked in who will certainly be a starter for his contract. I would do that, I think.

Should CeeDee Lamb remain the team’s primary punt returner?

Machota: Yes. For one more year. As long as Cooper and Gallup are healthy, there’s enough depth at wide receiver that I’m willing to take my chances for one more season. But next year, or if Cooper or Gallup go down, I’d be looking to move him out of that role.

Sturm: I don’t think I would risk that. Lamb takes enough shots running underneath and down the seams that I think he is a concussion risk. Even in his rookie season, I think he was hit harder than any other Cowboys player in 2020 over and over and he keeps getting up. But, one dangerous job is more valuable than the other. Punt returns are dangerous all the time and while it might be a creative way to get Tony Pollard more touches or others, I think Lamb is too valuable to the offense, save for very special occasions.

Who will lead the team in tackles?

Machota: Parsons. As long as he can handle everything that Quinn is putting on his plate, Parsons is going to play a lot. And with him on the field so much, I think he’s going to be making plays all over the place. Leighton Vander Esch would certainly be a candidate as well if he’s able to stay healthy for a full season.

Sturm: This feels like a very tricky question, but I do think Leighton Vander Esch is a tackling machine and they will probably wish to give him every chance to be that guy in 2021. He has to prove his health and he has to prove he is the best option, but I would say he is my favorite to lead the team in tackles — even though that particular stat can be deceiving and sometimes even lacking real value sometimes (depending on proper context as to the when and where of the tackles made). We should also not discount the very real possibility of Parsons and Cox being the full-time duo at linebacker in 12 months.

 

[Shiningstar]

the first thing any writers does when talking about "can the team make the SB" go straight to the team and not BLame the real issue, of course they cant, but if they arent going to answer the question truthfully, just ignore or and stop playing the game, obviously they cant write the truth "thats not up to the team, its up to the Joneses, they have stopped all winning and a winning culture in the Cowboys organization. Fact.

Let us remind the new Cowboys fans that came on yesterday JJ didnt fire 1 SB winning coach, he didnt fire 2 SB winning coaches, he fired 3 SB winning head coaches. IT was the Jones Boys who kept an average head coach instead of looking for better, it was Jones who was ok giving out contracts to players who didnt deserve it and handicapping the team in other places.

To be fair, i wish one writer would say "DAllas will get to the SB when it becomes the goal of JJ to win the SB. he only talks about it, but money walks, and his goal is to make the Cowboys organization money, not worry about the trophy or pride.

Ok ok ok, lets now focus on how great Quinn is. Hes doing what most DCs do, ok totally different and so freaking unique. But lets not talk about what Quinn has done, thats to easy, lets talk about what Quinn most do, and THATS much harder. He has got to get the line going after the QB. for decades, Dallas has hated this and we have to turn that around. From day 1 Quinn should be installing the mindset, get the qb, get the QB get the OTHER TEAMS QB, NOT OURS. This is going to be a huge task because if he doesnt do this, everything else gets harder.

Another problem we wil not discuss, no free safety to make QBs think twice, we just want them comfortable throwing in the middle with no fear and letting them go unanswered for it. Fear our talent back there, we do for some dumb reason.

the team has got to be streamlined, know you goal, know your job, do your job correctly. big big problems in Dallas that refuse to be solved. MM has got to solve these problems or it will be another year done in April, which is fine, a lot of fans like that and the organization seems to find it a success. im not a big fan of it, but what do us true fans know.

 

[Genghis Khan]

The NFC looks like it might have a QB reload to consider with very few conference QBs hitting their “late 20s prime” with Prescott joined by … almost nobody else. Drew Brees is gone, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson might be aging out, Tom Brady is someone we have no idea about, but otherwise, who are the heavyweight contenders in the NFC? Kyler Murray? Matt Stafford? Justin Fields?

This is a really interesting point. I don't think Wilson is aging out, but there's definitely, suddenly, a dearth of quality NFC QBs that are in their prime.

 

[Genghis Khan]

Sturm: Ezekiel Elliott. I don’t mean to belabor this point, but the draft investment and the cash investment in a player who is popular, but extremely limited in this modern NFL continues to befuddle me. If only he was a dynamic pass catcher, I would never say this, but he is a very basic-route player and does not have the ability to morph into a receiver when they need it, so I hope he continues to sell a lot of jerseys.

Some people might think I'm antiquated but Sturm's perspective here, to me, is about as dumb as it gets.

He's a running back.

Debate all you want about whether he's a good enough running back. Fine.

But to say he's not a good enough running back because he's not a wide receiver is frankly retarded.

 

[ravidubey]

Some people might think I'm antiquated but Sturm's perspective here, to me, is about as dumb as it gets.

He's a running back.

Debate all you want about whether he's a good enough running back. Fine.

But to say he's not a good enough running back because he's not a wide receiver is frankly retarded.

And he’s proven he can bring elite receiving skills to the table, when he has had to.

There was a shootout game in 2018 with Detroit of all teams and Dallas’ defense (again) forgot to board the plane. This was before Amari joined the team, and Elliott made multiple 30+ yard catches, one on a screen (again to the right) for a TD and one over the shoulder grab on a deep corner route which kept a key drive going.

That over the should catch was special and not something I’ve seen from many backs.

On another catch vs Green Bay (again no Cowboy defense) the next season on a wheel route Zeke made a tough catch lofted over the pursuing linebacker and took a nasty hit the moment he caught the football and held on. The catch was over 20 yards downfield.

As Genghis pointed out Zeke’s a back and shouldn’t have to make those kinds of plays… but he can, we’ve all seen it.

I hope the sprint right screen comes back, because Zeke is really good at not only making the corner ahead of surprised DBs but also powering through their arm tackles

 

[Couchcoach]

I was at that Detroit game, sitting at the opposite end of the direction the pass was thrown. Damn good catch, the whole place lit up.

 

[Shiningstar]

Sometimes you have to play the hot hand, and few games that hot hand was not EE and still they kept trying to make him the better player. Not saying across the boards Pollard is better, but on some games, some aspects, Pollard might be having a better game and the team should use that to their advantage

 

[ravidubey]

Sometimes you have to play the hot hand, and few games that hot hand was not EE and still they kept trying to make him the better player. Not saying across the boards Pollard is better, but on some games, some aspects, Pollard might be having a better game and the team should use that to their advantage

If Pollard has the hot hand, sure.

But Elliott is the every down bell cow for a reason. Pollard may look explosive by contrast, and that's intentional since he's a totally different kind of running back.

At his ceiling I see Joe Washington 1983 for Pollard. Exciting between the 20's and providing key third down catches and changeup runs from the starter John Riggins. Maybe one game where he dominates.

 

[Shiningstar]

If Pollard has the hot hand, sure.

But Elliott is the every down bell cow for a reason. Pollard may look explosive by contrast, and that's intentional since he's a totally different kind of running back.

At his ceiling I see Joe Washington 1983 for Pollard. Exciting between the 20's and providing key third down catches and changeup runs from the starter John Riggins. Maybe one game where he dominates.

i dont argue this, actually this is a very good comparison. yes, if he has the hot hand for a quarter, a series, you have to play him.

Yes, EE is the cowbell, no disputing, but the mere fact when i see Pollard running hot and they throw EE in and he loses yardage, we have to question what the hell are they thinking.

 

[ravidubey]

but the mere fact when i see Pollard running hot and they throw EE in and he loses yardage, we have to question what the hell are they thinking.

It's hard to know how much it's the situation and play design in that spot or pulling the back with the hot hand at the wrong time. Sometimes the defense just isn't having it.

But I agree they often don't let Pollard get enough consecutive attempts.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Some people might think I'm antiquated but Sturm's perspective here, to me, is about as dumb as it gets.

I'd take the judgement of most people on here over Sturm's any day.

He has the platform he does because of his radio voice, not his evaluation skills.

 

[Shiningstar]

It's hard to know how much it's the situation and play design in that spot or pulling the back with the hot hand at the wrong time. Sometimes the defense just isn't having it.

But I agree they often don't let Pollard get enough consecutive attempts.

yea, i cant argue that, as a fan its easy on the sidelines.

 

[Genghis Khan]

I'd take the judgement of most people on here over Sturm's any day.

He has the platform he does because of his radio voice, not his evaluation skills.

He does watch film so I'll give him that, and he'll sometimes talk to coaches as well (like he did for the Jaylon article).

But he hated the Zeke pick from the get go because he doesn't like drafting RBs that high. And I'm guessing he didn't like his contract extension for similar reasons.

So I'm betting that's coloring his opinion here.

 

[Simpleton]

This is a really interesting point. I don't think Wilson is aging out, but there's definitely, suddenly, a dearth of quality NFC QBs that are in their prime.

Yea I said this a few months ago when talking about re-signing Dak, aside from Wilson there are no truly elite QB's in the NFC if you project out over the next 2-3 years.

Brees is gone, Brady has to be done sometime soon and could fall off a cliff at any moment, Rodgers is almost 40 and has one foot out the door (or both?), Stafford isn't on that level and there have even been rumblings of Wilson wanting out in Seattle.

Aside from that what do you have?

Kirk Cousins? Kyler Murray?

Meh.

It's one reason I'd look to keep Gallup, we could conceivably ride Prescott and the passing game to a SB appearance over the next few years.

As far as Elliott, he's been an elite back every year except for last season (which was completely fucked almost from the start) and during 2017 with the weird suspension. He was in shit shape last year and the fumbles early on were a joke, but I'm willing to give him a do-over because I don't think it'll take much for him to get back to putting up 1400/10 TD's again.

 

[Genghis Khan]

As far as Elliott, he's been an elite back every year except for last season (which was completely fucked almost from the start) and during 2017 with the weird suspension. He was in shit shape last year and the fumbles early on were a joke, but I'm willing to give him a do-over because I don't think it'll take much for him to get back to putting up 1400/10 TD's again.

Even last year, fumbles aside, Zeke was on a pretty good pace until Dak got hurt.

After the first 5 games, he was on pace for 1165 yards rushing and 16 TD.

The YPC was on pace for 4.09, but it's skewed (which is why it's an unreliable stat) by one bad game of 2.43. Otherwise, in the first 5 games he had 3 of at least 4.35 ypc. He only had 2 the entire rest of the year.

I don't know if he's still elite or not, but he was pretty good last year when Dak played. That seems to be underappreciated.

It's one reason I'd look to keep Gallup, we could conceivably ride Prescott and the passing game to a SB appearance over the next few years.

This is a good point.

 

[Simpleton]

Yea he was decent before the Dak injury but the fumbles were completely preposterous and overshadowed everything else. And that was with Smith and Collins out the majority of the time as well.

 

[p1_]

Yea he was decent before the Dak injury but the fumbles were completely preposterous and overshadowed everything else. And that was with Smith and Collins out the majority of the time as well.

I think folks didn’t give Zeke any leniency for the mess that the oline was last year. He does need good blocking to make solid gains, and that should account for an improved running game this year.

 

[p1_]

Yes, EE is the cowbell,

That’s bell cow.

 

[Genghis Khan]

That’s bell cow.

The cowbell is in your avatar.

 

[Cotton]

That’s bell cow.

Totally missed that.